OPINION POLLING FOR JULY 2026

    

Internationally, not much change anywhere.  Spain won what must have been one of the worst, most tedious, low quality World Cups in my lifetime.  The Spanish government and the EU also went into meltdown over border incursions by illegals in the Spanish north African territories of Ceuta and Melila. Germany has reverted to it's standard position of the last decade of a Coalition government on the verge of collapse. 

Domestically, Labour's Andy Burnham completed his coup, announced his new Cabinet and scattered a few baubles to the masses.  The 'Burnham Bounce' finally materialised but appears to be peaking already.  Labour retained the Gtr Manchester Mayoralty.

Throughout July, 28 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 24.5% (-2.2)
Lab:  22.9% (+3.1)

Con: 20.0% (+0.9)

Grn: 12.3% (-0.7) 
LDem: 11.3% (-1.1) 
Oth: 9.0% (-1.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in 17 of the polls released in June, with Labour leading in 6 and 5 tied by the two parties. Reform ranged between 22-29% (median 24.0), Labour ranged between18-28% (median 22.0), the Tories between 17-22% (median 20.0), the Greens between 8-16% (median 12.5), and the LDems between 8-14% (median 11.0).

If a General Election were held on these JULY figures, it would probably result in a Reform-Tory-DUP Coalition, as that is the most stable majority grouping and involves the fewest number of parties with the most closely aligned political positions, with a majority of around 10 due to factors such as Sinn Féin not taking their seats and the DUP's support for most of their plans.

➡️Rfm: 211 (-103)

🌹Lab:  180 (+95)

🌳Con: 92 (+28)

🔶LDem: 70 (+12)

🌍Grn: 25 (-21) 

🎗️SNP: 47 (+1)

☠️NI: 18
🌻PC: 3 (-9)
🤡Oth: 3 (-1)
🗞️Speaker: 1 
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (177 polls)
Rfm 26.9%, Lab 19.4%, Con 18.9%, Grn 14.4%, LDem 12.1%, Oth 8.3%

Polling figures for July 2026 (28 polls)
Rfm 24.5%, Lab 22.9%, Con 20.0%,  Grn 12.3%, LDem 11.3%, Oth 9.0%

Rfm lead over Lab Jun: 1.6% (-5.3)
Rfm lead over Con Jun: 4.5% (-2.1)
Lab lead over Con Jun: 2.9% (+2.2)

The 'Burnham Bounce'?

Using all measures where all sampling took place AFTER Burnham took charge of No10 until July 31st reveals that there is now a 'bounce' underway and that it is at or very close to its peak.  The 'post-coronation' average is:-

Rfm: 24.5%
Lab:  24.5%

Con: 20.1%

Grn: 11.3%
LDem: 10.8%
Oth: 8.8%

Looking at the shift, the hardest hit by the 'bounce ' are the other parties of the Left - the LDems, Greens, SNP & Plaid.  Reform have taken a small hit, but not as badly as the others, and the Tories have also benefitted slightly and probably account for slightly more than half of Reform's decline during the 'bounce surge'. (early polling for August suggests the 'bounce' has indeed finished).

Gtr Manchester Mayoral Election - Result.

Labour's Bev Craig won the Mayoralty as was expected.  The Tories will have been shocked to finish fifth behind Restore.  Voting patterns across the ten boroughs showed that in Reform's heartlands, such as Oldham MBC, their vote held up.

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SCOTLAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show  last polling for reference):-

SNP: 34.0%
Rfm: 17.0%
Lab: 16.0%

Grn: 10.0%
Con: 10.0%

LDem: 9.0%

Oth: 4.0%

No Holyrood polls were released during the month. Last polling, the full slate elections of 07 May, are below (constituency/regional list):-

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Last polling is shown for reference:-

Yes: 49.0%, No: 45%, DK: 6.0%

(Yes: 52.1%, No: 47.9%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2026)

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

PC: 29.0%
Rfm: 24.0%
Grn: 14.0%
Lab: 12.0%

Con: 12.0%

LD:  5.0%

Oth: 4.0%

There were no Welsh Parliament polls released during the month. (Figures show the First Preference vote of May's election for reference):-

PC: 35.4%

Rfm: 29.3%

Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%
Grn: 6.7%
LDem: 4.5%

Oth: 2.3%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 20.0%

(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2026, First Preference Vote)
Plaid: 35.4%
Ref: 29.3%
Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%

Grn: 6.7%

LDem: 4.5%

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 22.0% (-2.0)
DUP: 15.0% (-3.0)

APNI: 10.0% (-1.0)
UUP: 16.0% (+3.0)
SDLP: 13.0% (+2.0)
TUV: 12.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)
AÚ: 3.0% (nc)
PBP-S: 2.0% (nc)
Oth: 2.0% (nc)

(Unionist 43.0%, Nationalist 45.0%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government.  The Irish government is also starting to express serious concern with the demands of other EU members who want the EU borders significantly toughened and Freedom of Movement restricted closed becuase of the Ceuta incident.

One opinion poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 17.0% (+2.0)

FG: 20.0% (+1.5)

SF: 19.0% (-1.5)

SD:  12.0% (nc)

LP:  3.0% (-0.5)

AÚ:  6.0% (nc)

II:  7.0% (nc)

GP:  3.0% ( nc)

PBP-S: 2.0% (-1.0) 

Oth:  11.0% (-0.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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OPINION POLLING FOR JUNE 2026

Internationally, some sort of ceasefire was cobbled together between the US & Iran, which appears to be holding by and large but in my opinion is only temporary as it suits both sides to call a halt currently (Iran for the funeral of Ayatollah Khameini and family, which is a drawn out affair that will run for several weeks and will attract leaders from all over the world as well as millions of pilgrims from across the Islamic world, and the US while the FIFA World Cup is underway and until the November mid-terms have been held.). Ebola reared it's ugly head again, centred mainly on DRC & Venezuela suffered two major earthquakes in quick succession which have apparently killed around 50,000 people.

Domestically, an earth shattering month which has seen the demise of yet another UK Prime Minister (farewell Keir Starmer, mind the revolving door doesn't hit your arse on the way out), a never ending stream of ever more bizarre allegations made against Reform's Nigel Farage, a bit of a heatwave and the commencement of the 2026 FIFA World Cup with the presence of England & Scotland (the latter didn't last long).  Peter Murrell, formerly of the SNP was sentenced to prison.

Throughout June, 24 Westminster polls were released. Reform continues to dominate. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 26.7% (-0.3)
Lab:  19.8% (+0.8)

Con: 19.1% (+0.8)

Grn: 13.0% (-1.5) 
LDem: 12.2% (nc) 
Oth: 10.0% (+3.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll released in June. Reform led by 1-10% (median 7.0). Reform has now led in every poll bar 5 since mid-April 2025, and even in those five, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 23-30% (median 27.0), Labour ranged between15-24% (median 20.0), the Tories between 17-22% (median 19.0), the Greens between 9-17% (median 13.0), and the LDems between 11-14% (median 12.0).

A 'Burnham Bounce'?

Traditionally, when a party gains a new leader, and although Burnham is yet to be officially coronated, that is exactly what he will be by mid-July, it receives a noticeable 'bounce' in polling, usually of at least 3-5%.  Other than movements within normal polling fluctuations, there is no evidence of any 'bounce' at all,  including the first few polls of July, but it will be worth keeping an eye on for any impact once Burnham is in No10 and has announced some policies.

If a General Election were held on these JUNE figures it would result in a Reform minority government.  In reality, they will have a majority of around 10 due to factors such as Sinn Féin not taking their seats and the DUP's support for most of their plans.

➡️Rfm: 314 (-24)

🌹Lab:  85 (+31)

🌳Con: 64 (+2)

🔶LDem: 58 (-6)

🌍Grn: 46 (-13) 

🎗️SNP: 46 (+1)

☠️NI: 18
🌻PC: 12 (+7)
🤡Oth: 4 (nc)
🗞️Speaker: 1 
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (149 polls)
Rfm 27.3%, Lab 18.9%, Con 18.7%, Grn 14.7%, LDem 12.2%, Oth 8.2%

Polling figures for June 2026 (24 polls)
Rfm 26.7%, Lab 19.8%, Con 19.1%,  Grn 13.0%, LDem 12.2%, Oth 10.0%

Rfm lead over Lab Jun: 6.9% (-0.8)
Rfm lead over Con Jun: 7.6% (-1.1)
Lab lead over Con Jun: 0.7% (nc)

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PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS - 18 JUNE 2026

Aberdeen South Result.

Con: 14,308
SNP: 8,258
Ref:   2,478
Lab:  1,558
LD:    1,270
Grn:   974
Turnout: 31%

Conservative gains from SNP. This marks the first by-election win in Scotland for the Tories since the 1970's and the first one in an urban area since 1967. Aberdeen is in oil country. They are being economically destroyed by Net Zero, and it is patently obvious that this was the main motivating factor amongst voters, who resoundingly rejected SNP, Labour and Green Party policies.

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Arbroath Broughty Ferry Result.

 

SNP: 9,802

Con: 4,524

Ref:  4,384

Lab:  3,651

LD:   1,452

Turnout: 31%

SNP hold. SNP only won this seat for the first time in 2024, taking it from Labour, and has increased its majority. Theoretically, a combined Reform-Tory candidate could have taken the seat. 

------

Makerfield Result.

Lab: 24,977

Ref: 15,696

Res: 3,111

Con: 997

Grn: 308

LDem: 163

8 Others: 274

Turnout: 59%

Labour hold, with the very unusual occurrence of the by-election turnout exceeding that of the last two General Elections for this seat, indicating that the voters were seriously motivated. 

Headlines quite rightly belonged to Labour & Andy Burnham, who have defied the national trend in this one-off spectacular, billed as the most extraordinary by-election since 1922 in Newport, which saw the Liberal Coalition government fall, and ultimately the beginning of their collapse. Clearly, Labour benefited from a collapse in the other parties' votes, with their voters either voting Labour tactically to stop Reform or voting tactically for a once-in-a-lifetime chance to bring down a sitting Prime Minister. Reform will be annoyed at Restore for undermining their vote, but also pleased that their share of the vote has risen. In virtually all of Andy Burnham's election literature, there was little to no mention of Labour at all, just 'Vote Andy', meaning he was campaigning not on the party and its policies, but on his ego and personal brand identity locally. 

In his speech, Burnham said this result, and he personally, are the final chances for Labour to change.

Tories lost their deposit for the first time ever in a by-election, and the LDems recorded their worst ever result.

Prof John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, pointed out that not only did Burnham buck the current national polling trend, but he also bucked the trend of most by-elections in history as a ruling party's candidate. He also pointed out that although Burnham is extraordinarily popular in Greater Manchester, he is not that popular across the country and gets less popular the further south you go, and across into Scotland & Wales, quipping that most of the country couldn't care less how well he runs buses in Manchester.

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SCOTLAND

One Westminster poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 34.0% (+2.5)
Rfm: 17.0% (-2.0)
Lab: 16.0% (-1.5)

Grn: 10.0% (+1.0)
Con: 10.0% (-2.0)

LDem: 9.0% (-0.5)

Oth: 4.0% (+1.0)

No Holyrood polls were released during the month. Last polling, the full slate elections of 07 May, are below (constituency/regional list):-

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%

There was just one IndyRef poll released during the month:-

Yes: 49.0%, No: 45%, DK: 6.0%

(Yes: 52.1%, No: 47.9%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2026)

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

PC: 29.0%
Rfm: 24.0%
Grn: 14.0%
Lab: 12.0%

Con: 12.0%

LD:  5.0%

Oth: 4.0%

There were no Welsh Parliament polls released during the month. (Figures show the First Preference vote of May's election for reference):-

PC: 35.4%

Rfm: 29.3%

Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%
Grn: 6.7%
LDem: 4.5%

Oth: 2.3%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 20.0%

(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2026, First Preference Vote)
Plaid: 35.4%
Ref: 29.3%
Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%

Grn: 6.7%

LDem: 4.5%

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

There were no Assembly polls held during the month; however, they will be held more often now, as the next Assembly election must be held no later than 06 May 2027.  (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

SF: 24.0%
DUP: 18.0%

APNI: 11.0%
UUP: 13.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Grn: 5.0%
AÚ: 3.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 42.9%, Nationalist 45.9%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government.

Two opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 15.0% (-1.0)

FG: 18.5% (+1.5)

SF: 20.5% (-1.0)

SD:  12.0% (+2.5)

LP:  3.5% (-0.5)

AÚ:  6.0% (-1.0)

II:  7.0% (-1.0)

GP:  3.0% (-nc)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth:  11.5% (+0.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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