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All Blogposts contain only personal views and are published in an entirely personal capacity. However, I do not accept any legal responsibility for the content of any comment unless I have refused to delete the comment following a valid complaint. Any complaint must set out the grounds for the deletion of the comment. I also reserve the right to delete comments that - in my opinion, are offensive or make unsubstatiated accusations against persons or groups. Like the BBC, this Blog is not responsible for the content of external internet sites. (with thanks to Valleys Mam's blog where I nicked most of this from).


05 June, 2022

OPINION POLLING FOR MAY 2022

 

             





Across May there were 24 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month)

Con 33.3% (-0.7) 
Lab 39.3% (-0.7)
LDem 11.3% (+1.5)
Grn  5.6% (+0.3)
Rfm 3.0% (-0.1)
Oth 7.5% (-0.3)
Ave Lab lead over Con for April: 5.96% (-0.04)

The month started with political eyes focused on the local elections.   At the start of the campaign, Labour were forecast to make huge gains (600+ with the Tories losing 800-1200).   However as the campaign wore on, their lead over the Tories slowly fell away and once the dust settled, Starmer had done slightly worse than both Corbyn and Miliband before him in similar elections.   In England for example, of 4,411 seats being contested, Labour ended with 22 more than they started,  66 more in Wales and actually lost one Mayoral election to an old enemy - extreme-Leftist  Lutfer Rahman and his party 'ASPIRE' in London's Tower Hamlets (ASPIRE also took a majority on the Borough council), while the Tories gained the new Mayoralty of Croydon.  The real winners as such were the LDems who picked up around 800 seats.  The turn-out was appallingly low at less than 25%.  Nationally Labour increased it's seat share by around 90, and the tories lost around 400

As for the national opinion polls, Tory support swung between 31-36%, Labour's between 36-43% and the LDems between 9-14%.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% only nine times during the 24 polls (their worst tally for some months) and on one occasion showed an 11% lead (SavantaComRes, 27-29 May).but bizarrely, a YouGov done in the same period only had them at 3% (an average of the two is roughly in line with the consensus among other polls).   Labour led in every poll  with leads of between 1%-11%.

If a General Election were conducted on these MAY figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L311, C253, SNP50, LD12, PC4 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and Labour needing a coalition of  minimum of the LDems and Green - however the LDems demands that we re-enter the EU - including the adoption of the €uro and preferably without even a referendum & the current voting system scrapped and replaced with PR,  combined with Green's demands that the move to net zero is accelerated etc, make the likelihood of a stable coalition remote at best, especially when you factor in that the LDems would expect Rayner's Deputy slot and several other Cabinet posts. As a result, Labour would probably choose to limp on with a minority Government as the next alterntive - a coalition with the SNP, is politically unacceptable.

There are three by-elections coming shortly (the vacant Tory seats of Wakefield & Tiverton and almost certainly the Independent seat of Leicester East) with the Tories expected to do badly in all three, on current forecasted and expected low turn-outs combined with Labour & LDems not competing against each other in order to 'capitalise' on each others vote share.   If any move will be made to oust Johnson as leader by his party, Tory party
 rules state that at least 15% of Tory MPs must write a no-confidence letter to make a leadership challenge possible.  This currently equates to 54 MPs needing to submit a letter thus forcing a vote.   It should be remembered that when Thatcher found herself in a similar position and won her vote of No Confidence with 60% of the vote, she still decided to stand down, Theresa May likewise.. So it's not just winning, but winning massively that seems to count within the Tory party itself.  The favourites within the Tory party to replace Johnson as leader should he go are (in order) Nadhim Zahawi, Liz Truss, Michael Gove, Ben Wallace.  That said,  the 'rebels' do not enjoy widespread support and cannot even put together a united & unified front - for example the two main camps appear to be led by Andrew Bridgen - a hard Brexiteer,  and Tobias Ellwood - who wants to rejoin the EU's Single Market.  Neither has the time of day for the other and they despise each other more than they don't like Johnson.

Economically, Ukraine is now starting to bite and bite hard in the western economies and this will progessively worsen as the summer rolls on and politicians all over the free world will be hoping that their voters have enough brain cells to work out that there is nothing that any government can do except largely sit it out (or intervene directly and risk an almost certain nuclear war).  Sanctions on Russia and in turn the Russian blockade on Ukraine combined with their workforce now serving in the Ukrainian Army, are now starting to bite us as much as Russia as alternative suppliers for basic commodities such as eggs, chicken, wheat (bread, biscuits, cake, flour)  barley (beer, animal feed), white fish, sunflower products,  timber, steel, concrete, aluminium, silicon chips etc etc do not exist or if the do, not in sufficient quantity to meet demand (which is what is driving inflation - to few goods in comparison to demand and money chasing them),  and large tracts of the Third World - in particular the highly unstable middle east (think oil, think Israeli security) and north Africa (think refugees into southern europe, salads, liquified natural gases, textiles, gold) are looking at severe and widespread food shortages.  Meanwhile (as if on cue) Trades Unions right across central & western Europe are becoming increasingly belligerent and seemingly unable to corelate basic economic facts such as above or near inflationary pay rises without increases in worker productivity actually make the situation worse (as happened in the mid-1970's).

We will now enter the summer season where by tradition, Her Majesty's Government of the day pretends it has a grip of world events which in reality are beyond it's control, while Her Majesty's loyal Opposition of the day, pretend that if they were in power they could get a different outcome.  The summer ends with the usual party conference pantomimes and sing-along - the 'Red Flag' in Liverpool (while waving an assortment of arab terrorist flags, EU flags, assorted gender-based stripey things & taking the knee) and probably 'God Save The Queen' in Birmingham (with plenty of Unions Jacks, flags of the Home Nations, colourful waistcoats, dickie bows and a tear in the eye).

As we go to press,  the government of Estonia has fallen due to allegedly being undermined by Kremlin backed ethnic-russians in their parliament,  or working in government administrative departments etc deliberately sabotaging things (bit like our civil service then LOL).   Estonia is a member of the EU and NATO and uses the €uro as it's currency.  The last thing the EU, and NATO want or need at the moment is a member state becoming highly unstable politically and starting to do a 'Yugoslavia'.  Nor will the European Central Bank relish the idea of trying to stabilise the economy of a €uro user in the current financial climate.

Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (119 polls)
Con 33.6%, Lab 39.6%, LDem 10.3%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.3%, Oth 7.6%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 5.92%

Polling figures for May (24 polls)
Con 33.3%, Lab 39.3%, LDem 11.3%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.0%, Oth 7.5%
Lab lead over Con May: 5.96%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during May.  They averaged as follows:-

SNP: 44.0%, SCon: 19.7%,  SLab: 23.0%, SLD: 7.7%, SGP: 3.0%, Oth: 2.6%

(GE 2019 - SNP: 45%, SCon: 25.1%, SLab: 18.6%, SLDem: 9.5%, SGrn: 1.0%, Oth: 0.8%).


There were also three Holyrood polls released during May.  They averaged (const/list) as follows:-

SNP: 45.3/35% , SCon: 19.3/19.0%,  SLab: 22.7/21.3%, SLD: 7.0/8.0%, SGP: 3.0/11.7%, Oth: 2.7/5.0%

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLDem: 6.9/5.1%, SGP: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).


There were three IndyRef polls released, averaging:

Yes: 43.8%, No: 47.0%, DK: 9.2%
(Y:48 N:52)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

There were no polls released during the period. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


NORTHERN IRELAND

Northern Ireland held it's Stormont election.   As the pollsters forecast, Sinn Fein became the largest party but barely moving and finishing with the same number of seats as it started with, in the main because the unionist vote is now split between three parties (DUP/UUP/TUV), but Sinn Fein is not and is nowhere near being in an outright majority.

Northern Ireland Assembly 2022 Results:-
(Comparisons to last Assembly Elections 2017 in brackets)

First preference:-

Sinn Fein 29.0% (+1.1)
DUP 21.3% (-6.7)
NIAP 13.5% (+4.5)
UUP 11.2% (-1.7)
SDLP 9.1% (-2.9)
TUV 7.6% (+5.1)
PBP 1.2% (-0.6)

Total Seats (90)
Sinn Fein 27 (n/c)
DUP 25 (-3)
NIAP 17 (+9)
UUP 9 (-1)
SDLP 8 (-4)
TUV 1 (+1)
PBP 1 (+1)
(Ind 2 (+1))

If anyone did well, it was the Northern Ireland Alliance Party (NIAP) and True Unionist Voice (TUV).  As expected, the DUP (and TUV), refused to take their seats and elect a Speaker - honouring their main election pledge, and as a result the Assembly cannot sit.    The system has a complicated set-up to ensure that neither side can ever get the better of the other.   All political parties in Northern Ireland have to register as either Nationalist, Uionist or non-Aligned.   Likewise, all MLAs have to register in the Member's Book as beng one of those three choices as they take their seat.    The First Minister always comes from the largest party.  The Deputy First Minister then comes from the largest party on the other side of the sectarian divide.   Then for a law to pass in Stormont, a majority of nationalist MLAs and a majority of Unionist MLAs must vote in favour.   BUT.......before Stormont can sit, it has to elect a Speaker  - and likewise said Speaker must gain the support of a majority of MLAs from both nationalist & unionist communities.   And with DUP & TUV holding 26 of the 35 unionist seats,  that is impossible.  As a result, the posts of Speaker, First Minister and Deputy First Minister cannot be filled, a government cannot be formed and the Assembly cannot sit.

Stormont it should be remembered,  is the most devolved Home Nation of the three with devolutionary powers and is basically semi-autonomous.
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were four polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):-

SF: 35.0% (+1.5)
FF: 17.8% (+0.8)
FG: 20.8% (-0.7)
GP: 3.0% (-0.5)
LP: 4.0% (n/c)
SD: 3.8% (-1.7)
S-PBP: 3.0% (+0.5) 
AÚ: 2.0% (-0.5)
Oth/Ind: 10.6% (+0.6)

(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth: 13.5%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~






02 May, 2022

OPINION POLLING FOR APRIL 2022







Across April there were 21 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month)

Con 34.0% (-1.0) 
Lab 40.0% (+1.3)
LDem 9.8% (+0.2)
Grn  5.3% (-0.5)
Rfm 3.1% (-0.5)
Oth 7.8% (+0.5)
Ave Lab lead over Con for April: 6.00% (+2.32)

Labour started the month much as last month, then once they got their teeth into 'PartyGate', Rayner's legs etc etc they managed to open quite a lead at one point, however the Tories recovered sharply in the final week of the month and everybody finished not far off where they started.

Tory support swung between 33-36%, Labour's between 36-43% and the LDems between 8-11%.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% thirteen times during the 21 polls and on one occasion showed an 11% lead (DeltaPoll, 13-14 Apr). Labour led in every poll  with leads of between 3%-11%.

If a General Election were conducted on these APRIL figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L311, C258, SNP47, LD10, PC4 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and Labour needing a coalition of  minimum of the LDems and Plaid - however the LDems demands that we re-enter the EU - including the adoption of the €uro and preferably without even a referendum & the current voting system scrapped and replaced with PR,  combined with Plaid's demands of far greater devolution for Wales up to the same level as Scotland,  make the likelihood of a stable coalition remote at best and Labour would probably choose to limp on with a minority Government.

Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (95 polls)
Con 33.7%, Lab 39.6%, LDem 10.1%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.4%, Oth 7.7%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 5.8%

Polling figures for April (21 polls)
Con 34.0%, Lab 40.0%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 3.1%, Oth 7.8%
Lab lead over Con Apr: 6.0%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during April.  They averaged as follows:-

SNP: 43.0%, SCon: 20.3%,  SLab: 25.7%, SLD: 6.3%, SGP: 2.0%, Oth: 2.7%

(GE 2019 - SNP: 45%, SCon: 25.1%, SLab: 18.6%, SLDem: 9.5%, SGrn: 1.0%, Oth: 0.8%).


There were also three Holyrood polls released during April.  They averaged (const/list) as follows:-

SNP: 45.3/33.7%, SCon: 20.3/19.7%,  SLab: 23.7/22.3%, SLD: 7.3/8.0%, SGP: -/11.3%, Oth: 3.4/5.0%

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLDem: 6.9/5.1%, SGrn: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).


There were three IndyRef polls released, averaging:

Yes: 41.3%, No: 46.7%, DK: 12.0%
(Y:47 N:53)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

There were no polls released during the period. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


NORTHERN IRELAND

There are Stormont elections in May.  The system they have to use is that the government is formed from the largest party one side of 'the divide' in a power share with the largest party from the other side.  They are unlilely to achieve much - the power share will still be the usual terrible twins of Sinn Fein and the DUP , however for the first time Sinn Fein will be the lead - and not only that, will be the largest party both north and south of the border.  It will almost certainly not sit though because the DUP are currently refusing to sit until the EU-UK Northern Ireland Protocol is scrapped and without the largest Unionist party, the terms of the Good Friday Agreements mean that it cannot form a government and therefore cannot sit.  Two polls were released during the month giving Stormont voting intentions 
(figure in brackets compared to last month):-

DUP: 20.1% (+2.1)
SF: 26.5% (+0.5)
UUP: 13.8% (+0.8)
SDLP: 10.1% (-0.9)
APNI: 14.4% (-1.6)
TUV: 7.2% (-1.8)
GRN: 3.7% (+1.7)
PBP: 2.1% (+0.1)
Oth: 1.8% (+0.2)

(2017 first preference %:-)

DUP: 28.1%
SF: 27.9%
UUP: 12.9%
SDLP: 11.9%
APNI: 9.1%
TUV: 2.6%
GRN: 2.3%
PBP: 1.8%
Oth: 3.6%

There was no IndyRef polling released during the month.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


LOCAL ELECTIONS - ENGLAND, SCOTLAND & WALES

There are local elections in parts of England, Scotland & Wales in early May and so far what little polling has been  carried out specifically for these shows 37%-33% in Labour's favour -which the Tories, as government of the day and in mid-term, will be more than satisfied with should the actual vote on the day reflect that.   Labour's support is higher than that in metropolitan areas - such as London Manchester etc,  but  lower (and in some instances a lot lower) once you get to the towns and districts, indicating that they are quite rapidly becoming a metropolitan middle/professional class party whether they want to be or not.

In England 
(but not the devolved home nations) for some reason  local elections - despite the fact they are about councils and thus local services,  usually reflect people's national thoughts and as a result most voters in England tend to vote over issues that have absolutely nothing to do with councils and indeed councils can do absolutely nothing about.  Already doorstep returns suggest the two main issues will be the 'cost of living crisis' & 'PartyGate' - two issues that councils are powerless to do anything about.  They are also plagued by ultra-low turn outs - the last time this set were held was in 2018 and the turn-out was 34.6%.  Time before in 2014 it was 35.5%.

It is quite complex to work out the shift because in some instances whole councils will cease to exist and new ones created since this section of voting was last carried out four years ago.  
The number of councils in England and Wales predicted to be controlled by each party is shown in this table:-

LOCAL AUTHORITY PREDICTION - ENGLAND & WALES

The prediction is that Labour will gain around 20 councils and are not expected to lose any.  The Tories might gain and lose a few councils, but their net total is expected not to change much, if at all. The LDems should pick up the new Somerset Unitary Authority.  Overall this would be a good result for the Tories from their perspective, and Boris Johnson personally, given the Tories' problems with 'Partygate' and other mid-term woes.

Councils predicted to change hands will centre around:-

Predicted Tory gains: Elmbridge, Havering, North Yorkshire (new), Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Worcester
Predicted Tory losses: Barnet, Harlow, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Southampton, Thurrock, Wandsworth

Predicted Labour gains: Barnet, Blaenau Gwent, Bolton, Bridgend, Burnley, Crawley, Cumberland (new), Denbighshire, Flintshire, Harlow, Kirklees, Merthyr Tydfil, Milton Keynes, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Plymouth, Rossendale, Sheffield, Southampton, Wandsworth, West Lancashire, Wirral, Wrexham

Predicted LDem gains: Somerset (new)

Predicted Plaid Cymru gains:
 Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Ynys Mon (Anglesey)

Westmoreland & Furness (new) will almost certainly be NOC

(*Note that there are four new Unitary Authorities this year: Cumberland, North Yorkshire, Somerset, and Westmorland & Furness. )


In terms of the number of wards won, the 
prediction is:-

 WARD PREDICTION - ENGLAND & WALES

Labour are predicted to gain around 800 seats, with the Tories losing a similar number. That may be disappointing for the Tories, but it is nowhere near catastrophic and does not indicate a meltdown in Tory support nor a ground shift in the electorate. This is the mid-term of the Parliamentary cycle and the voters always take this opportunity to give the sitting government of the day a well-aimed kick up the arse. 


A direct comparison of the prediction against the actual wards won when the wards were last contested is complicated by the fact that there have been several significant sets of new ward boundaries since then. The table below shows, with the same prediction, using the old ward definitions.  Note that since the total number of seats is decreasing by over 550, most parties appear to lose seats.:-

WARD PREDICTION USING 2018 BOUNDARIES

In Scotland the latest scant polling specific to the local elections has the SNP on 44%, Labour on 22%, Tory on 21%. and LDem on 8%  This is a huge increase in SNP share of nearly a third since the last time these councils were contested 4 years ago and appears to be mostly at Labour's expense.  Scottish local elections are run using a form of proportional representation similar to that used in their Holyrood elections which makes it more difficult to estimate the composition of councils in Scotland but it looks like it will be a very very good night for the SNP and further cement their grip on power in Scotland.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were two polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):-

SF: 33.5% (+0.5)
FF: 17.0% (-2.7)
FG: 21.5% (+0.2)
GP: 3.5% (-0.8)
LP: 4.0% (+0.3)
SD: 5.5% (+1.5)
S-PBP: 2.5% (-0.5) 
AÚ: 2.5% (+0.7)
Oth/Ind: 10.0% (+0.7)

(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth: 13.5%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

02 April, 2022

OPINION POLLING FOR MARCH 2022




                                

Across March there were 24 polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month). 

Con 35.0% (+1.4) 
Lab 38.7% (-1.0)
LDem 9.6% (-0.6)
Grn  5.8% (+0.1)
Rfm 3.6% (+0.4)
Oth 7.3% (-0.4)
Ave Lab lead over Con for March: 3.68% (-2.41)

Labour's lead of the latter parts of last year and earlier this year continued to drop as the month wore on.   

Tory support swung between 33-37%, Labour's between 35-42% and the LDems between 7-12%.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% eight times during the 24 polls and on two occasions showed a 7% lead (SavantaComRes, 04-06 Mar, and Survation 28-30 Mar.). Labour led in every poll except one - which was tied ( Kantar, 17-21 Mar, 36% each) with leads of between 1%-7%.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is obviously putting Boris in the spotlight front and centre and the public appear very supportive of the money and weapons he has given on our behalf so far and very supportive of the sanctions programme.   Quite what their opinion will be later on in the autumn as the inflation caused by the war and sanctions starts to pile in on top of what's already hitting their pocket from the 'covid unwind' will become apparent around Nov-Dec as that starts to hit. The first tranche of 'PartyGate' Fixed Penalty Notices have now been issued,  but the public appear for the most part to be totally disinterested in the affair anymore - bored rigid by it would be a more apt description, and any firm opinion either way appears to be split for the most part along party lines.  

There are local elections in parts of England & Wales due in early May and so far what little polling has been  carried out specifically for these shows 37%-33% in Labour's favour -which the Tories, as government of the day and in mid-term, will be more than satisfied with should the actual vote reflect that.  There are also local authority elections in Scotland, but there is no polling available for those and they have the added dynamic of the SNP who intend to finish Labour off in some areas.

If a General Election were conducted on these MARCH figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L292, C272, SNP55, LD7, PC4 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and neither side able to form a coalition government without the SNP, which as I have said before,  remains politically unthinkable due to the intransigence of SNP demands and the inescapable fact that it would be political suicide in the eyes of the voter for either side - Red or Blue, to yield to the SNP in order to gain power and equally politically suicidal for the SNP to back down from it's present position in order to power-share in a Westminster they are determined to leave and a United Kingdom they couldn't care less about.   There are also too many core differences now between the parties that are 'red line' and with no middle ground.

Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (74 polls)
Con 33.6%, Lab 39.5%, LDem 10.1%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 3.5%, Oth 7.6%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 5.8%

Polling figures for March (24 polls)
Con 35.0%, Lab 38.7%, LDem 9.6%, Grn 5.8%, Rfm 3.6%, Oth 7.3%
Lab lead over Con Feb: 3.7%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There were two Holyrood polls released during March.  They averaged (const/list) as follows:-

SNP: 44/34%, SCon: 19/19%,  SLab: 22/20%, SLD: 8/8%, SGP: -/12%, Oth: 7/7

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLDem: 6.9/5.1%, SGrn: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

There were two IndyRef polls released, averaging:

Yes: 44.5%, No: 47.5%, DK: 8.0%
(Y:48 N:52)


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during March, 
(figure in brackets compared to last polling in December)

Lab: 41% (-), Con 26% (-), PC: 13% (-), LDem 7% (+4), Grn 4% (-2), Rfm 6% (-1), Oth 3% (-1)

(GE2019 - Lab 40.9%, Con 36.1%, PC 9.9%, LDem 6.0%, Grn 1.0%, BXP 5.4%, Oth 0.7%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

There are Stormont elections in May.  One poll was released during the month giving Stormont voting intentions 
(figure in brackets compared to last month):-

DUP: 19% (-0.4)
SF: 26% (+2.8)
UUP: 13% (-1.0)
SDLP: 11% (-)
APNI: 16% (+0.4)
TUV: 9% (+3.6)
GRN: 2% (-)
PBP: 2% (-0.3)
Oth: 1.8% (+0.2)

(2017 first preference %:-)

DUP: 28.1%
SF: 27.9%
UUP: 12.9%
SDLP: 11.9%
APNI: 9.1%
TUV: 2.6%
GRN: 2.3%
PBP: 1.8%
Oth: 3.6%

There was no IndyRef polling released during the month.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

There were three polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):-

SF: 33.0% (-)
FF: 19.7% (-)
FG: 21.3% (+0.3)
GP: 4.3% (-0.4)
LP: 3.7% (-)
SD: 4.0% (+0.3)
S-PBP: 3.0% (+0.7) 
AÚ: 1.7% (-)
Oth/Ind: 9.3% (-0.9)

(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth: 13.5%

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FRANCE  (Presdential elections 10 & 24 Apr, 2022)

The entry requirements to be included on the first round ballot paper saw only 14 candidates make the grade, of which only 12 have declared to stand and they will appear on the ballot.  Of those 12, five are way ahead of the remainder in polling.     Only the top two from the first round will progress to the second round and the winner of that will be the next President of France.

Almost certainly, the two final candidates will be Macron & Le Pen - who were also the two finalists in the last election in 2017.  In that one, Macron beat Le Pen by 66% to 34% on a healthy 75% turn-out.  This time however, it is going to be far far closer and going into the final week of polls they are near neck-and-neck for declared second round preference and it looks as though Macron is only going to hang on by the skin of his teeth and could even possibly lose depending on which way Melenchon's voters jump - anti-nationalist or anti-EU.  Unlike last time out where they were fairly ambivalent towards him, he is now extremely unpopular with the 'blue collar' working class as is the EU which he 'champions'.

During March there were 76 Polls averaging:

( Top 5 - Left-Centre-Right-Nationalist-Gaullist) 
(figures in brackets last month's comparison)

Melenchon: 13.1% (anti-EU)(+2.5)
Macron: 29.2% (pro-EU)(+4.7)
Pecresse: 10.9% (EU-sceptic)(-3.8)
Le Pen: 19.7% (anti-EU)(+3.0)
Zemmour: 11.3% (anti-EU)(-3.3)
7 Others: 15.8% (-2.9)

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04 March, 2022

OPINION POLLING FOR FEBRUARY 2022

                         


Across February there were 23 polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month). 

Con 33.6% (+1.4%) 
Lab 39.7% (-0.4%)
LDem 10.2% (-0.4%)
Grn  5.7% (+0.2%)
Rfm 3.2% (-0.4%)
Oth 7.7% (-0.1%)
Ave Lab lead over Con for Feb: 6.09% (-1.76%)

A month of two halves that the all-up monthly total fails to reflect (but probably will next month). Labour's lead of the last couple of months over the Tories starting to drop as the month ground on.   

Tory support swung between 32-35%, Labour's between 37-42% and the LDems between 8-13%/  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% ten times during the 23 polls and on one occasion showed a 10% lead (Redfield & Wilton, 07 Feb). Labour led in every poll with leads of between 3% - 10%.

Obviously,  the Russian invasion in the latter stages of the month will eventually filter through to the voter - and indeed the drop in the Labour lead later in the month may well be an early indication of this as voters are exposed more to government spokespeople in the media.  The medium and long term impact to the voter of the sanctions imposed on Russia - even higher energy prices, even higher inflation, food inflation, shortages of aluminium products - including even cooking foil, shortages of some foodstuffs such as sunflower oil etc etc will at some stage dawn on them and that in turn will affect their voting intentions - but which way? Some forecasters are now saying inflation across the west could now hit 12-15% by years end as western economies re-adjust to the new realities and compete against each other for resources and products in short supply.  Should that end up being the case, then our Chancellor and his counter-parts across the free world will quickly find themsleves shredding their budget forecasts.

If a General Election were conducted on these FEBRUARY figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L308, C253, SNP57, LD8, PC4 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and Labour almost certainly unable to form a 'rainbow alliance' and having to rely on the SNP, which remains politically unthinkable due to the intransigence of SNP demands and the inescapable fact that it would be political suicide for either side - Red or Blue, to yield to the SNP in order to gain power and equally, political suicide for the SNP to back down from it's present position in order to power-share in a Westminster they are determined to leave..

Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7

Polling figures for 2022 (50 polls)
Con 32.9%, Lab 39.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.4%, Oth 7.8%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 7.8%

Polling figures for February (23 polls)
Con 33.6%, Lab 39.7%, LDem 10.2%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 3.2%, Oth 7.7%
Lab lead over Con Feb: 6.1%

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SCOTLAND

There were no political or referendum opinion polls released during February.

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WALES

There were no political or referendum opinion polls released during February.

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There are Stormont elections in May, although they might be called earlier if Stormont cannot find some way to limp on until then.  One poll was released during the month giving Stormont voting intentions  (figure in brackets is the shift since last polling in January):-

DUP: 19.4% (+2.4%)
SF: 23.2% (-1.8%)
UUP: 14% (-)
SDLP: 11% (-1.1%)
APNI: 15.6% (+1.6%)
TUV: 6.4% (-5.6%)
GRN: 6.3% (+3.3%)
PBP: 2.3% (+1.3%)
Oth: 1.8% (-1.2%)

(2017 first preference %:-)

DUP: 28.1%
SF: 27.9%
UUP: 12.9%
SDLP: 11.9%
APNI: 9.1%
TUV: 2.6%
GRN: 2.3%
PBP: 1.8%
Oth: 3.6%

There was no IndyRef polling released during the month.

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast & London and vice-versa all around.

There were three polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):

SF: 33.0% (-0.5%)
FF: 19.7% (-1.8%)
FG: 21.0% (-1.5%)
GP: 4.7% (+1.7%)
LP: 3.7% (-0.3)
SD: 3.7% (+1.2)
S-PBP: 2.3% (-0.2) 
AÚ: 1.7% (+0.7)
Oth/Ind: 10,2% (+0.7%)

(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth: 13.5%

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FRANCE  (Presdential elections 10 & 24 Apr, 2022)

There are now 38 declared candidates at this stage - not including the incumbent Macron, with the same five as last month clearly ahead of the herd, and only two of those five will reach second round run-off. 

So far, of the 38 declared candidates, only 11 have gained the necessary signatures to progess to the first round ballot.    French Presidential elections are a cumbersome closed-shop affair and to be listed on the first-round ballot paper, candidates need to secure 500 signatures (often referred to as 'parrainages' in French) from national or local elected officials from at least 30 different departments or overseas 'collectivities', with no more than a tenth of these signatories from any single department. The signatures are submitted to the Constitutional Council, which is the sole authority to designate participants.

During February there were 59 Polls averaging:

( Top 5 - Left-Centre-Right-Nationalist-Gaullist) 
(figures in brackets last month's comparison)

Melenchon: 10.6% (anti-EU)(+1.1%)
Macron: 24.7% (pro-EU)(+0.6%)
Pecresse: 14.7% (EU-sceptic)(-1.7%)
Le Pen: 16.7% (anti-EU)(-0.2%)
Zemmour: 14.6% (anti-EU)(+1.8%)
33 Others: 18.7% (-1.7%)

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