OPINION POLLING FOR APRIL 2025

Internationally, the various regional wars continue unabated, the Canadians held an election that achieved little,  the Pope died, India & Pakistan started squabling again and President Trump's tariffs have started to 'kick in'.  (it will take several months for them to feed through the supply chain).

At home, the Starmer-EU talks continue without seeming to be getting anywhere other than the EU demanding money and increased access and offering sod all in return, the UK Supreme Court drove a coach and horses through woke ideaology declaring a woman is a woman is a woman.  The PM continues his international galivanting as he persists with his failing attempts to cobble together some sort of Western coalition to occupy post-war Ukraine.

All eyes are on May 1st, with the looming Regional and Metropolitan Mayoral elections as well as the Runcorn & Helsby Parliamentary by-election and a smattering of English councils.  Reform is forecast to do well in all of them,  Labour not particularly brightly and the Tories about to fall off a cliff.

Across APRIL there were 22 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 25.2% (+0.8)

Lab  23.6% (-1.7)

Con 22.0% (-0.7)
LDem 13.9% (+0.8) 
Grn 9.0% (+0.1) 

Oth 6.3% (+0.9)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Labour ranged between 20-27% (median 24.0), Reform between 21-29% (median 25.0), the Tories between 19-27% (median 22.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 5-13% (median 9.0).  Of the 22 polls Labour led in 4, Reform led in 9,  with the Tories leading in none.  The remaining 9 were ties - 8 Lab-Rfm & 1 Lab-Tory

If a General Election were held on these APRIL figures it would result in a hung Parliament of:-  L 186 (-27),  C 97 (-31), LD 59 (+4), Rfm 247 (+61), SNP 30 (-7), PC 4 (nc), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 1 (nc), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform being the largest party but around 59 short of a working majority (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats). Just out of interest, notable figures from Labour who would lose their seats on these figures include Stephen Kinnock, Angela Rayner, Jo White, Liam Byrne, Richard Burgon, Pat McFadden and more.   Notable Tories would include James Cleverly, Marc Francois, David Davies and Victoria Atkins.

.

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (322polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for 2025 (88 polls)
Rfm 25.0%, Lab 24.9%, Con 23.0%, LDem 13.1%, Grn 8.7%, Oth 5.4%

Polling figures for Apr 2025 (22 polls)
Rfm 25.2%, Lab 23.6%, Con 22.0%, LDem 13.9%, Grn 9.0%, Oth 6.3%

Lab lead over Con Apr: 1.6%
Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 1.6%
Rfm lead over Con Apr: 3.2%

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OTHER POLLING

Some other polling of interest that took place during the month included the North of England & East Midlands (basically the famous 'Red Wall'). Of note is the fact that within the 'Red Wall'  - which was overwhelmingly Leave in the BREXIT vote, the growth in Reform is near-identical to the fall in the Labour share.  This presents a major problem for Labour in that without the 'Red Wall' it cannot win an election, and the 'Red Wall' will not support a Remain Prime Minister & Party if they become hell bent on closer EU ties.  The country is clearly not only deeply divided still over the EU, but also appears to be deeply divided between north & south, and these divisions do not correspond to the old 'class divisions' - which makes things extremely difficult for orthodox left-right parties such as Labour and the Tories.  For example, how do you pitch to a working-class Leave voter in the north while at the same time appealing to an identical working-class Remain voter in the south?  And the answer is 'you can't' - you are going to have to abandon one or the other and seek replacement votes from elsewhere. (Figures in brackets show movement from the General Election)

Rfm 30.0%% (+12.5)
Lab  27.0% (-12.6)

Con 22.0% (-1.8)
LDem 10.0% (+2.5) 
Grn 9.0% (+2.2) 

Oth 2.0% (-2.6)

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SCOTLAND

The post-Sturgeon revolution continues with more undoing of her work.  Their anti-mysogyny law is to be scrapped and the minimum age for assisted dying is to be raised from 16 to 18. The policy of reducing car use is to be dropped.  MSPs will shortly agree on the re-drawing of the boundaries for the Holyrood elections to account for population size and dispersal so that each Scottish Parliament constituency and region is roughly equal-sized population-wise.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 33.0% (+1.0)
Lab: 24.0% (+3.0)
Rfm: 15.0% (-1.0)
Con: 14.0% (+1.0)

LDem: 9.0% (-0.5)
Grn: 5.0% (-0.5)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.5/26.5% (+1.5/-2.5)

SLab: 18.0/18.5% (-5.0/-1.5)
Rfm: 13.0/11.0% (-4.0/-5.0)
SCon: 12.5/15.5% (+0.5/+2.5)

SLD: 10.5/10.5% (+2.5/+1.5)

SGP: 7.0/12.0% (+3.0/+4)
Oth: 3.5/5.0% (+1.5/+1.5)

Two IndyRef polls were released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 48.0% (+8.0), No: 43.5% (-6.5), DK: 8.5% (-1.5)

(Yes: 52.5%, No: 47.5%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase along with the amount of interest the parties show in it.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling).

Lab: 29.0% (-4.0)
Rfm 25.0% (+4.0)
PC: 18.0% (+5.0)
Con: 15.0% (-3.0)
Grn: 6.0% (-6.0)

LDem: 6.0% (-3.0)

Oth: 1.0% (-2.0)

There were two Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Lab 27.0% (+1.0)

Plaid 24.0% (+5.0)
Rfm 23.5% (+2.5)
Con 15.5% (-2.0)
Grn: 5.0% (-1.5)
LDem 4.5% (-1.5)

Oth: 1.0% (nc)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

Yes: 35.0% (+11.0), No: 50.0% (-11.0), DK: 15.0% (nc)

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 28.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 14.0%
UUP: 11.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Green: 2.0%
AÚ: 1.0%
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum are already causing the new government considerable problems and the growth of Irish populism as a result is quite spectacular, with MMA fighter and working-class hero Connor McGregor announcing he will run as a Presidential candidate at the next Presidential Election and despite being condemned by every politician in the Dail, immediately moved into the favourite position in both the polls and the betting.

There were three opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 21.3% (+0.3)

FG: 19.0% (-0.5)

SF: 23.7% (+2.2)

SD:  7.3% (-0.2)

LP:  3.7% (-0.3)

AU:  3.3% (-0.7)

II:  4.5% (+0.5)

GP:  2.7% (+0.2)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 11.5% (-0.5) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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HELSBY & RUNCORN BY-ELECTION, ENGLISH MAYORALTIES & ENGLISH COUNTY COUNCIL ELECTIONS - RESULTS

ALL ELECTIONS WERE HELD ON THURSDAY 01 MAY

 Helsby & Runcorn Parliamentary By-Election

This seat was vacated after the incumbent, Mike Amesbury of Labour, got in a spot of bother after assaulting a constituent in the street late at night in an altercation following an evening's refreshment.  As a result, he had to resign.  The seat should have been a shoo-in for Labour as it is, (or rather was), their 18th safest seat in the country and new governments win their by-elections for at least the first 18 months following an election.  Blair went 6 years before he lost a by-election, and at this stage (10 months in) BoJo had won two, defending one and taking one - Hartepool, from Labour.

HOWEVER.....This Labour government is not particularly well-liked by the general public, winning its majority on just 33.7% of the vote on the back of a very low turnout, more in anger against the Tories than anything else.   In addition, it had taken extremely unpopular decisions in the budget, turning swathes of what should be it's natural support base against it.  In the mix was a surging Reform Party, so all-in-all, the scene was set for a close run thing, which it subsequently turned out to be, with just 6 votes separating the winner from the runner-up.   

On average, there are around 4 Parliamentary by-elections a year, usually caused by deaths, scandals, illness etc.   With Reform currently surging, Starmer will be dreading things.

Local Magistrate Sarah Pochin, Reform UK Party, elected as MP. 

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Combined Authority Mayoralties

Four Combined Authority Mayoralties took place.   Two were new - North Lincolnshire, and Hull & East Yorkshire.   One was with slightly changed boundaries - West of England, and one was an established Mayoralty, but this time round with a new voting system - Cambridgeshire & Peterborough.   The only things of note were Labour taking the West of England, which was expected to fall to the Greens because of the solid Green vote in Bristol,  and just how well Reform did in all of them.  Right up until polling day, the local Tories expected to push Reform to the post in Hull with East Yorkshire, but finished a very, very poor third.

 

 

Metropolitan Mayoralties

Two Metropolitan Mayoralties took place - one in Doncaster and one in North Tyneside,  both supposedly safe Labour.   Labour narrowly held both, with a significant drop in vote share, and Reform running them a very close second in both.   Of note is the fact that the winning Doncaster Mayor - Labour's Ros Jones, in her acceptance speech, rounded on Party Leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer and gave him a proper tongue-lashing.

Doncaster Mayoralty

North Tyneside Mayoralty

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English County, Metropolitan & Unitary Council Elections

This particular set of councils was last voted on in 2021.  BoJo had been in Office just over a year, his Tory government was at the height of its popularity, and the Tories made spectacular gains largely at the expense of Labour, who were truly battered on the day.   In theory, Labour should have made gains in this outing, recovering to at least their pre-2021 position, during this part of the cycle - new government, less than a year old, fighting on what should be home turf..  In actual fact, they went even further backwards, losing two-thirds of the seats they were defending to a mix of independents, Reform, LDems & Greens.  Interestingly, back in 2021, Starmer - then  Labour's new leader by a year- offered to resign, taking the defeat personally.   This time, in the same councils, he has done even worse with the worst defeat of any Prime Minister in his first year of a new government for over fifty years.  The Tories took a severe rubbishing, losing every council they were defending, being virtually wiped out by Reform, with the LDems taking a chunk for good measure.

by council

overall

In Lancashire County Council,  Azhar Ali, expelled by Labour for anti-semitism last year during the Rochdale Parliamentary by-election, has been elected as an Independent councillor for the Nelson East ward.  In nearby Burnley, also in Lancashire County Council, an 18-year-old medical student, Maheen Kamran, was elected as a councillor for Burnley Central East.  Unbelievably, she stood on a policy of separating muslim men from muslim women in public spaces (as per Islamic teaching), including workplaces, public transport, schools, hospitals, parks and amenities.  She said, “Muslim women aren’t really comfortable with being involved with Muslim men". (Remember that next time you hear someone in Westminster deny there are integration problems.). Across England, a score of pro-Gaza independents & pro-Gaza radical Greens won seats on councils, but luckily not in sufficient quantity to be able to disrupt things.

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OPINION POLLING FOR MARCH 2025

 

Fighting continues between Ukraine & Russia, with neither side appearing ready to stop yet and both sides clearly thinking they can gain more by continuing to fight.  The Middle East prepares for what looks like a soon-to-be major showdown between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear ambitions. Once that kicks off, Israel-Syria-Gaza-lebanon will pale into insignificance.  The Donald continues with his 'global disruption' policies.  New Canadian PM Mark Carney called a snap election which he appears to be nap-on to win.

At home, Starmer continued his international galavanting as he tried to cobble together his Coalition Of The Foot-Draggers, which, without US air cover (which appears to be decidedly not forthcoming), is a non-starter.  The end of the month saw the Chancellor - Rachel-From-Accounts Reeves deliver her spring statement with many political commentators saying it is a suicide note.  Deputy Prime Minister Angela 'Red Queen' Rayner continues to struggle to get her '1.5m new housing starts by 2029' off the ground. Squabbles broke out between the government and the Judiciary advisors over two-tier justice.  Birmingham's bin strike continues.  Labour appears to have increased very very marginally, mainly because of Starmer pretending to be the tough guy over Ukraine, while the Tories and Lib Dems remain relatively becalmed, with Reform showing the biggest movement - but negatively, almost certainly because of their internal squabble between the party & Rupert Lowe.

Fast Looming on the horizon we have Regional Mayor and local elections in large parts of England right at the start of May, limited local authority elections with the by-election in Runcorn & Helsby.  Reform is predicted to do very well in all, largely at the Tories' expense, but Labour cannot take things for granted as they are going to lose seats to green and pro-Palestinian independents.

Across MARCH there were 25 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Lab  25.3% (+0.4)

Con 22.7% (-0.2)
Rfm 24.4%% (-1.7)
LDem 13.1% (+0.2) 
Grn 8.9% (+0.6) 

Oth 5.6% (+0.3)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Labour ranged between 21-30% (median 25.0), Reform between 19-27% (median 24.0), the Tories between 19-27% (median 22.0), the LDems between 10-16% (median 13.0), and the Greens between 7-11% (median 8.0).  Of the 25 polls Labour led in 14, Reform led in 4,  with the Tories leading in 2.  The remaining 5 were ties - 4 Lab-Rfm, 1 Lab-Tory

If a General Election were held on these MARCH figures it would result in a hung Parliament of:-  L 213 (+38),  C 128 (-29), LD 55 (-8), Rfm 186 (-1), SNP 37 (-2), PC4 (+2), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 4 (+1), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Labour being the largest party but around 105 short of a working majority (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (322polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for 2025 (66 polls)
Lab 25.3%, Con 23.4%, Rfm 24.9%, LDem 12.8%, Grn 8.6%, Oth 5.6%

Polling figures for Mar 2025 (25 polls)
Lab 25.3%, Con 22.7%, Rfm 24.4%, LDem 13.1%, Grn 8.9%, Oth 5.6%

Lab lead over Con Mar: 2.6%
Lab lead over Rfm Mar: 0.9%
Rfm lead over Con Mar: 1.7%

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SCOTLAND

Very little polling has taken place in Scotland over the last few months however it is worth pointing out that there are indications Reform are making good progress north of the border and if the trend continues should replace Labour in the number 2 spot by late summer.  However, significantly more polling, from a range of companies to remove methodology differences,  will be required to confirm that.

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show last polling for reference):-

SNP: 32.0%
Lab: 21.0%
Con: 13.0%

Rfm: 16.0%
LDem: 9.5%
Grn: 5.5%

Oth: 3.0%

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 34.0/29.0% (-1.0/-1.0)

SLab: 23.0/20.0% (+5.0/+3.0)
SCon: 12.0/13.0% (-3.0/-2.0)

Rfm: 17.0/16.0% (+3.0/+3.0)

SLD: 8.0/9.0% (-3.0/-2.0)

SGP: 4.0/8.0% (-2.0/-2.0)
Oth: 2.0/5.0% (+1.0/+1.5)

Two IndyRef polls were released during the month, however both were from the same company and done within days of each other which may account for the significant shift (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 40.0% (-8.0), No: 50.0% (+3.0), DK: 10.0% (+5.0)

(Yes: 44.4%, No: 55.6%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

Possibly the most interesting thing in Welsh politics was Rhun Iorworth, the head of Plaid Cymru, appearing on BBC's Question Time and being asked to justify the proposed increase in Welsh Parliament politicians - and failing miserably.  I actually know Rhun Iorworth from when I lived near him and I used t be a party member of Plaid, going out leafletting etc.  He is a very nice chap but a hopeless politician. (Plaid has completely lost the plot in the last few years and is obsessed with 'woke'.  The biggest mistake it has made was to overthrow the Valleys firebrand Leanne Wood in 2018 and stab their Leave voters in the back.  Plaid is really three very different and incompatible parties under the same banner - a working-class post-industrial southern Valleys group, a 'Y Fro Gymraeg' conservative Welsh-speaking largely rural group centred on the northwest & west coast, and a radical group largely consisting of clueless university students and public sector workers in places such as Cardiff, Swansea, Aberystwyth & Bangor - which funnily enough is where the universities - as well as large numbers of students and public sector workers are. Currently, power lies with the latter two groupings, with the radicals currently dominant with Rhun a sop to keep the Y Fro group on-side as the largely now ignored Valleys group - a group that has the most potential for growth incidentally, slowly drifting off to Reform)

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There were no  Westminster polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference)

Lab: 33.0%
Rfm 21.0%
Con: 18.0%
PC: 13.0%
Grn: 12.0%

LDem: 9.0%

Oth: 3.0%

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference) (constituency first preference only):-

Lab 26.0%

Rfm 21.0%
Plaid 19.0%
Con 18.5%
Grn: 6.5%
LDem 6.0%
AWA: 1.0%
UKIP: 1.0%

Oth: 1.0% 

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

TUV: 11.0% 

Green:2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

PBP-S: 2.0% 

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 28.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 14.0%
UUP: 11.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Green: 2.0%
AÚ: 1.0%
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum are already causing the new government considerable problems and the growth of Irish populism as a result is quite spectacular, with MMA fighter and working-class hero Connor McGregor announcing he will run as a Presidential candidate at the next Presidential Election and despite being condemned by every politician in the Dail, immediately moved into the favourite position in both the polls and the betting.

There were two opinion polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 22.0% (nc)

FG: 19.5% (-0.5)

SF: 21.5% (-1.0)

SD:  7.5% (nc)

LP:  4.0% (nc)

AU:  4.0% (nc)

II:  4.0% (nc)

GP:  2.5% (-0.5)

PBP-S: 3.0% (+0.5) 

Oth: 12.0% (+1.5) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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CANADA

Canada's new Prime Minister - former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has called a snap Federal election in the wake of The Donald's tariffs in an effort to get a popular mandate for what he intends to do. The election will take place on 28 April.  (basically, he will get the Canadian voters to vote for their own suicide note.  That way they can't complain.)

Polling since the election was called show that his party - the centre-left LPC ( a sort of free market Blairism) will romp the election.  The previous government was a loose coalition between LPC & NDP, however LPC looks as though it will win outright and govern on it's own.

Since the election was called a fortnight ago there have been an astounding 49 polls.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last General Election in September 2021)

LPC: 43.9%  (+11.3)  (Liberal Party)

CPC: 37.7%   (+4.0)  (Conservative Party
NDP:  8.0%    (-9.8)   (New Democrats)
BQ:    5.2%    (-2.4)  (Bloc Quebecois)
PPC:  5.2%   (+0.3)  (Peoples Party)
GPC:  2.1%   (-0.2)  (Green Party)

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