Disclaimer

All Blogposts contain only personal views and are published in an entirely personal capacity. However, I do not accept any legal responsibility for the content of any comment unless I have refused to delete the comment following a valid complaint. Any complaint must set out the grounds for the deletion of the comment. I also reserve the right to delete comments that - in my opinion, are offensive or make unsubstatiated accusations against persons or groups. Like the BBC, this Blog is not responsible for the content of external internet sites. (with thanks to Valleys Mam's blog where I nicked most of this from).


09 May, 2024

OPINION POLLING FOR APRIL 2024




This is just a brief foray into the polls for April as I have devoted the bulk of my time to the English local elections etc,  which was quite a lot of work as you can imagine.   Normal service will be resumed next month.

A tumultuous month in UK politics which saw the resignation of the Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf who made a disastrous presumtious decision regarding his coalition partner the Scottish Greens and having to resign as a result.  

Across APRIL there were 34 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 24.4 (-0.1)
Lab  43.3% (+0.2) 
LDem 9.6% (-0.4
Grn 5.6% (+0.1) 
Rfm 11.9% (+0.3)
Oth 5.2% (-0.1)
(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 18-27% (median 22.5), Labour between 40-45(median 42.5), Reform between 8-16% (median 12.0) and the LDems between 8-12(median 10.0).  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 34 polls and on 2 occasions showed a 26% lead (People Polling 04 Apr & YouGov 10-11 Apr).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 15-26% (median 20.5).   This is now the third consecutive month  that Reform have out-polled the LDems, with the gap between the two growing and in two polls Reform were only 4% behind the Tories (YouGov 02-03 Apr & 10-11 Apr).

If a General Election were held on these April figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of:-  L457 (+5)C105 (-1)LD44 (-2)SNP19 (-1), PC4 (nc), G2 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 265.    (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 270). 



Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)
Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (137 polls)
Con 25.0%, Lab 42.9%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 10.7%, Oth 5.8%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 17.88%

Polling figures for April (34 polls)
Con 24.4%, Lab 43.3%, LDem 9.9%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 11.9%, Oth 5.2%
Lab lead over Con March: 18.88% (+0.25)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 32.0% (-2.0)
SCon:  15.3% (-0.7)
SLab: 33.0% (-1.0)
SLD: 8.0% (+2.0)
Oth: 11.7% (+1.7)


There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 34.8/28.5% (-0.3/+0.5)
SCon: 17.3/15.3% (-0.7/-0.7)
SLab: 31.5/27.8% (+0.5/-1.2)
SLD: 8.5/8.8% (+3.8/-0.2)
SGP: 3.8/8.8% (+0.8/-0.2)
Oth: 4.1/10.8% (-3.9/+1.8)


There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (nc), No: 46.0% (-1.0), DK: 11.0% (+1.0)
(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)


(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 40.0% (-9.0)
Con: 18.0%
 (+2.0)
PC: 14.0%
 (+4.0)
LDem: 6.0%
 (+1.0)
Rfm 18.0%
 (+3.0)
Grn: 4.0% (-1.0)
Oth 0.0% (nc)


There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

Lab 37.0/33.0% (+1.0/+1.0)
Con 21.0/18.0% (nc/+2.0)
Plaid 22.0/19.0% (+1.0/+1.0)
LDem 4.0/7.0% (+1.0/nc)
Grn: 3.0/6.0% (nc/-3.0)
Rfm 11.0/12.0% (nc/+1.0)
AWA  3.0/4.0% (nc/-2.0)  

Oth -/1.0% (nc/nc)


There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Last polling figures are reproduced for reference(figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-


Yes: 30% (+3.0),  No: 58% (-3.0), DK: 12% (nc)
(Yes: 34.1%, No: 65.9%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%
Con: 26.1/25.1%
Plaid: 20.3/20.7%
LDem: 4.9/4.3%
Grn: 1.6/3.6%
Ref: 1.5/1.1%
AWA*: 1.5/3.7%
UKIP: 0.8/1.6%
Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.    Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019)
Oth: 4.0% (na)
(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)


There were no Assembly polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0%
 (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)
(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)


(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)


(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI:
 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 26.7% (+0.3)
FF: 15.3 (-1.7)
FG: 20.3% (nc
GP: 4.3% (+0.3)
LP: 3.7% (nc)
SD: 5.3% (-1.0)
PBP-S: 2.3% (nc) 
AÚ: 3.7% (nc)
Oth/Ind: 18.4% (+2)


(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,
SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~






06 May, 2024

ENGLISH LOCAL ELECTION, MAYORAL, LONDON ASSEMBLY, ENGLAND + WALES PCC RESULTS, MAY 2024

This years local elections in England consisted of 107 English local councils, all members of the London Assembly, 11 directly elected Mayors , and 37 PCCs in England & Wales.  In addition, one Parliamentary by-Election took place in Blackpool South.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

LOCAL AUTHORITIES ROUND-UP

107 English councils held elections with more than 2,000 seats being contested. Some were for metropolitan boroughs such as Manchester city council and others for unitary authorities such as Bristol or Dorset.  The majority of these elections were last held in 2021 (delayed from 2020 due to Covid).  The Tories were expected to lose around 500 seats and in the end lost 474.  Labour were expected to gain 350 but fell short only gaining 186.  The Tory collapse occured but the anticipated Labour landslide failed to materialise.


(Tabulations differ in various sources.  These are based in direct comparison 
from who won in 2021 against who won now and do not take by-elections, 
change of allegiance etc that may have occurred in the interim into account)



Local Election Voting Patterns For These Councils 2016-2024



National Opinion Polling vs Actual Local Results  Comparing How Voters Say They
Intend To 
Vote In A General Election In Comparison To How they Vote in Local Elections

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MAYORAL ELECTIONS ROUND-UP

No real surprises.  Sadiq Khan became Mayor of London for his third succesive term.  In the West Midlands, Labour won the seat my the narrowest of margins with one Labour source blaming the Gaza conflict, arguing that it was “the Middle East, not West Midlands” that had driven the vote and "the only winner was HAMAS".  Afterwards Labour sought to distance itself from the quote.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


LONDON ASSEMBLY ROUND-UP

The London Assembly consists of 25 seats.   Members of the London Assembly are elected through a combination of both first-past-the-post constituencies and closed list proportional representation. This system is commonly referred to as the Additional Member System (AMS). Fourteen members are elected in single member constituencies with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes becoming the Assembly Member for that constituency. An additional 11 members are also elected from the whole of London, with parties submitting lists of up to 25 candidates. For a party to be included, it needs to attain at least 5% of the vote across London. This process divides the remaining seats proportionally to the vote share of the parties with the use of the modified D'Hondt method allocating the seats. This system ensures overall proportionality with the 11 additional members being allocated in a corrective manner.   In other words,  the better you do at Constituency level, the worse you will do in the top-ups (hence why both Labour and the Lib Dems won a Constituency, but ended up no better off because they lost out in the Top-Ups.


The Result was:-


The new 2024 London Assembly is therefore:-


~~~~~~~~~~~~~


ENGLAND & WALES POLICE & CRIME COMMISSIONER (PCC)




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BLACKPOOL SOUTH PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION

The by-election followed the resignation of incumbent Tory MP Scott Benton. Benton had been suspended for 35 days from the House of Commons after being caught in a newspaper sting operation offering lobbying services for payment. This triggered a recall petition, which had started, but was then terminated by Benton's resignation.  The by-election was won by Labour's Chris Webb.  I have included 2019's figures purely to illustrate the effects of low turn-outs and stay-at-home-voters on the final result.  2019 wasn't a particulalry high turn-out in Blackpool South at 56.8% as opposed to 67.3% nationally and was one of the lowest in the UK.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

HIGHLIGHTS

The Conservatives lost many council seats and suffered the worst defeat at a local election by a government since 1996. They took some solace from Ben Houchen winning re-election as Tees Valley Mayor and managing to hold the Labour target of Harlow Council by just one seat.

Labour won the newly-created mayoralties of East Midlands,  York and North Yorkshire  and took one of their key targets - West Midlands, by the thinnest of cat's whiskers.

The Liberal Democrats gained Tunbridge Wells Council and Dorset Council and for the first time in any round of local elections, ended up with more seats than the Tories.

Boris Johnson forgot his voter ID and in my opinion did so deliberately in order to get his name all over the media.  Certainly for most of the day every news channel repeated it and his name endlessly.

The Greens had their best ever local election result. But they failed by two seats to take control of main target of Bristol City Council from Labour.  The Green Party following the intervention of the government’s independent antisemitism advisor former-Labour MP now Lord John Mann, has since confirmed it is investigating one of their new councillors after he and his supporters were filmed shouting “Allahu Akbar!” and pledging that his win was “a win for the people of Gaza”.

Reform UK underperformed nationally but did win two seats on Havant Borough Council.  They also took 16.8% of the vote in Blackpool South Parliamentary by-Election, their best showing to date at that level.

Gorgeous George Galloway's The Workers Party of Britain won two seats in Rochdale, one in Manchester and one in Calderdale.   Anti-Low Traffic Neighbourhood Alliance won 3 seats in Oxford and Sandy Toksvig's Women's Equality Party won it's first seat at this level,  in Basingstoke.

The main talking point for strategists is the swing.   Across all elections the swing from Tory to Labour was only around 4.5% - way lower than the 8%+ that Labour need to win a majority in the forthcoming General Election suggesting the likely outcome will be a hung Pariament or a very very smal Labour majority. Voters are not behaving in the cold light of the polling booths as they say they will in the warm fuzziness of opinion polls.  It should also be remebered that turn-outs at these sorts of elections are always decidedly lower than a General Election, and at this level voters vote (or indeed don't vote) for different reasons.

Turn-out ranged from piss-poor to absolutely dire.  Which is normal.




06 April, 2024

OPINION POLLING FOR MARCH 2024

 


Across MARCH there were 37 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 24.5 (-0.6)
Lab  43.1% (-0.4) 
LDem 10.0% (+0.2
Grn 5.5% (-0.5) 
Rfm 11.6% (+1.5)
Oth 5.3% (-0.2)
(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 18-27% (median 22.5), Labour between 40-47(median 43.5), Reform between 8-16% (median 12.0) and the LDems between 6-12(median 9.0).  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 37 polls and on 1 occasion showed a 28% lead (People Polling, 07 Mar).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 14-28% (median 21.0).   This is now the second consecutive month  that Reform have out-polled the LDems, with the gap between the two growing and in one poll Reform were only 5% behind the Tories (YouGov, 26-27 Mar).

If a General Election were held on these March figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of:-  L453 (-6)C106 (-3)LD46 (+9)SNP20 (nc), PC4 (nc), G2 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 256.    (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 260.). You will note that the polls have only showed minor changes to last month,  but in our constituency-based first-past-the-post system, just minor changes result in quite large shifts in the number of seats a party gains or loses.  (*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).


Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)
Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (103 polls)
Con 25.2%, Lab 42.8%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 10.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 17.55%

Polling figures for March (37 polls)
Con 24.5%, Lab 43.1%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 11.6%, Oth 5.3%
Lab lead over Con March: 18.63% (+0.22)


President Putin won the elections in Russia by more than a landslide.   The war rumbles on in both Gaza & Ukraine.  Donald Trump's lead continues to grow in the polls as ordinary Americans believe he is being deliberately victimised by a corrupt, largely metropolitan middle class, establishment.

On the Home Front, the self-immolation of the Tories continues with media constanty awash with stories of plots to ditch Sunak straight after the May 'locals'.   Northern Ireland's First Minister - Michelle O'Neill (Sinn Fein) is facing accusations that she was connected to leading figures in the infamous 'Stakeknife' 'nutting squad'.   The question of residence regarding Labour's Angela Rayner contiinues with her changing her story for a third time and even becoming tearful and hostile when pressed in one interview.  Her spouse - former Labour MP (now de-selected) Sam Tarry is to take Labour to Court over allegations of vote-rigging by them to unseat him as the Labour MP.  sir Jeffrey Donaldson - head of the DUP,  quit amidst allegations of rape.   Labour abandoned it's 'better BREXIT deal' plans after the EU told them in no uncertain terms that the deal is not going to even be discussed let alone re-opened, and several member states - principally Spain, said the EU functions far smoother without the UK and it's constant obstructions now it has left and they are not wanted back.   And then there's the Rwanda Bill..........

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 34.0% (-2.7)
SCon:  16.0% (+0.3)
SLab: 34.0% (+1.0)
SLD: 6.0% (-1.3)
Oth: 10.0% (+2.7)


There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.0/28.0% (nc/+1.0)
SCon: 18.0/16.0% (nc/nc)
SLab: 31.0/29.0% (-2.0/nc)
SLD: 5.0/9.0% (-3.0/nc)
SGP: 3.0/9.0% (nc/nc)
Oth: 8.0/9.0% (+5.0/-1.0)


There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (nc), No: 46.0% (-1.0), DK: 11.0% (+1.0)
(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)


(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 49.0% (+4.0)
Con: 16.0%
 (-6.0)
PC: 10.0%
 (nc)
LDem: 5.0%
 (nc)
Rfm 15.0%
 (+2.0)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)
Oth 0.0% (nc)


There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

Lab 36.0/32.0% (-1.0/-2.5)
Con 21.0/16.0% (-1.5/-2.5)
Plaid 21.0/18.0% (+2.5/-1.0)
LDem 3.0/7.0% (-2.5/-2.0)
Grn: 3.0/9.0% (-2.0/+3.0)
Rfm 11.0/11.0% (+5.5/+5.5)
AWA  3.0/6.0% (+2.0/+0.5)  
UKIP -/0.0%  (nc/-1.0)

Oth 5.0/1.0% (nc/-5.0)


There was one IndyRef poll released during the month(figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-


Yes: 30% (+3.0),  No: 58% (-3.0), DK: 12% (nc)
(Yes: 34.1%, No: 65.9%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%
Con: 26.1/25.1%
Plaid: 20.3/20.7%
LDem: 4.9/4.3%
Grn: 1.6/3.6%
Ref: 1.5/1.1%
AWA*: 1.5/3.7%
UKIP: 0.8/1.6%
Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.    Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019)
Oth: 4.0% (na)
(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)


There were no Assembly polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0%
 (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)
(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)


(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)


(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI:
 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

The Coalition govrnment continues to wobble, exacerbated by the resignation of Leo Varadkar after his personally disastrous Constituency Referenda results.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 26.3% (-2.0)
FF: 17.0 (-0.7)
FG: 20.3% (+1.0)
GP: 4.0% (+0.3)
LP: 3.7% (-0.3)
SD: 6.3% (+1.0)
PBP-S: 2.3% (nc) 
AÚ: 3.7% (+1.7)
Oth/Ind: 16.4% (-1.0)

(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,
SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. 

Chancellor Scholz (SPD) remains at loggerheads with the Farmers Union, with more strikes planned and - more crucially being as he and his party are left wing, is becoming embroiled in major policy rows inside his party as he seeks to find a way to reform and reduce Germany's 
burgeoning social welfare bill.

AfD - 18.1% (-0.7)
CDU/CSU - 30.3% (-0.1)
FW - 2.5% (-0.3)
FDP 4.7% (+0.3)
Grune - 13.3% (-0.1)
SPD - 15.6% (+0.6)
Die Linke - 3.1% (nc)
BSW - 6.0% (-0.4)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist' similar to Galloway's Workers Party of GB.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~