April saw a 'sort of' peace break out in the Middle East, with the US reverting to siege warfare to bring Iran down and Israel largely confining its activities in Lebanon to southern areas. The Donald had another assassination scare, which he made light of, saying, "it goes with the job". ARTEMIS-2 made it's round-trip to the moon. The King & Queen made a state visit to the former colonies of the Americas.
At home, the long shadow of Mandelson continues to cast its dark shadow over Labour, as all eyes now focus on the devolved Parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales, as well as elections in 136 District, Borough, Unitary and County council elections, as well as 6 Mayoral elections in the Gtr London Area (Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford). All indications are that Scotland will be a victory for the SNP, with Labour and Reform fighting it out for second place (it will be a tiny SNP majority, or probably an SNP/Green coalition). In Wales, where they are trialling a lunatic electoral system for the first time, it is a knife-edge between Plaid Cymru & Reform (probably doomed to be a Plaid/Labour coalition).
At home, the long shadow of Mandelson continues to cast its dark shadow over Labour, as all eyes now focus on the devolved Parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales, as well as elections in 136 District, Borough, Unitary and County council elections, as well as 6 Mayoral elections in the Gtr London Area (Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford). All indications are that Scotland will be a victory for the SNP, with Labour and Reform fighting it out for second place (it will be a tiny SNP majority, or probably an SNP/Green coalition). In Wales, where they are trialling a lunatic electoral system for the first time, it is a knife-edge between Plaid Cymru & Reform (probably doomed to be a Plaid/Labour coalition).
In the local elections in England, Labour are expected to take very heavy losses, with Reform & Greens making major gains, many in areas where Labour have held power at this level since dinosaurs roamed the earth. 'Earthquakes' to watch out for are Sunderland, and in boroughs in London.
If Labour lose more than 1500 seats in England, loses control of Wales, and becomes politically insignificant in Holyrood, HMS Starmer will be badly holed, listing heavily and facing a massive mutiny as the crew fights for lifeboats. Because of the system the Labour Party uses, cleverly designed by Starmer not long after he took over, it is virtually impossible to dislodge Starmer unless his MPs are prepared to bring down the Commons and move for a General Election, which, given the state of their party in the polls, is highly unlikely. What will probably happen is that, very soon after the results, Starmer will accept the inevitable, name a successor, and prepare to stand down in the next few years on his own terms (all Prime Ministers ever give a toss about is their precious 'legacy'. Fuck knows what his is or will be). He will almost certainly reshuffle his Cabinet to buy off a resurgent Left, his party membership and the Unions, dropping people such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, Science Secretary Liz Kendall, Business Secretary Peter Kyle, and damp squibs such as Media Secretary Lisa Nandy, and shift the party leftwards and greenwards to a sort-of Corbynism-Lite.
Throughout April, 26 Westminster polls were released, clearly reflecting growing interest as the campaigns for the May elections got underway. More polls mean the average becomes more accurate. Reform dipped again, but as dinghy crossings start to increase with the summer season, their support will also increase. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-
Throughout April, 26 Westminster polls were released, clearly reflecting growing interest as the campaigns for the May elections got underway. More polls mean the average becomes more accurate. Reform dipped again, but as dinghy crossings start to increase with the summer season, their support will also increase. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-
Rfm: 26.0% (-0.7)
Con: 18.8% (+0.8)
Lab: 18.3% (+0.1)
Lab: 18.3% (+0.1)
Grn: 16.0% (-0.4)
LDem: 11.9% (-0.2)
Oth: 9.0% (+0.4)
LDem: 11.9% (-0.2)
Oth: 9.0% (+0.4)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
Reform led in every single poll bar one released in April, in which it was tied with the Tories (Lord Ashcroft, 26-30 Mar). In the remainder, Reform led by 2-10% (median 6.0). Reform has now led in every poll bar 4 since mid-April 2025, and even in those four, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 21-30% (median 26.0), Labour ranged between15-22% (median 18.5), the Tories between 16-22% (median 19.0), the Greens between 12-21% (median 15.5), and the LDems between 10-14% (median 12.0).
If a General Election were held on these APRIL figures it would result in a Reform government even though they are 8 short of an absolute majority. In reality, they will have a small majority of around 5 due to vagaries such as Sinn Féin not taking their seats. They would also be able to rely on support from Badenoch's Tories and Northern Ireland's Unionists for most of their plans.
Rfm: 317 (-18)
Con: 79 (+18)
Grn: 71 (-1)
LDem: 63 (-1)
Lab: 48 (+5)
LDem: 63 (-1)
Lab: 48 (+5)
SNP: 45 (-3)
NI: 18
PC: 5 (nc)
Oth: 3 (nc)
Speaker: 1
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).
PC: 5 (nc)
Oth: 3 (nc)
Speaker: 1
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).
Comparisons
General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%
Polling figures for 2025 (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%
Polling figures for 2026 (100 polls)
Rfm 27.5%, Con 18.7%, Lab 18.6%, Grn 15.2%, LDem 12.3%, Oth 7.8%
The above Scottish Parliament figures, based on my rough calculations, would result in a new Scottish Parliament of around:-
The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections. As a result, you can expect to see the amount of regional polling taking place in Wales slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it at that level.
(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
General Election 04 Jul 2024:
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY - Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY - Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%
Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.
General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%
Polling figures for 2025 (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%
Polling figures for 2026 (100 polls)
Rfm 27.5%, Con 18.7%, Lab 18.6%, Grn 15.2%, LDem 12.3%, Oth 7.8%
Polling figures for April 2026 (26 polls)
Rfm 26.0%, Con 18.8%, Lab 18.3%, Grn 16.0%, LDem 11.9%, Oth 9.0%
Rfm 26.0%, Con 18.8%, Lab 18.3%, Grn 16.0%, LDem 11.9%, Oth 9.0%
Rfm lead over Con Apr: 7.2% (-1.5)
Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 7.7% (-0.8)
Con lead over Lab Apr: 0.5% (+0.6)
Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 7.7% (-0.8)
Con lead over Lab Apr: 0.5% (+0.6)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCOTLAND
Full-slate Scottish Parliamentary Elections will take place on 7 May 2026. Voters are now focusing properly, and pollsters are being more accurate as to the true state-of-play. Because voters in the devolved nations have an extra layer of administration, you can start to see how voters behave differently at the various levels and will vote differently without any hesitation at all, including voting differently with their two votes at Holyrood.
Two Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-
SNP: 34.0% (+0.7)
Rfm: 19.5% (+0.8)
Lab: 17.0% (+1.0)
Rfm: 19.5% (+0.8)
Lab: 17.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 8.0% (-2.0)
Con: 10.5% (+1.2)
Con: 10.5% (+1.2)
LDem: 8.0% (-1.3)
Oth: 3.0% (-0.4)
There were twelve Holyrood polls released during the month. (Constituency/Regional) (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
SNP: 35.5/29.1% (-1.3/-1.2)
Lab: 18.0/16.3% (+0.7/+0.2)
Rfm: 17.6/17.8% (+1.1/+2.0)
Rfm: 17.6/17.8% (+1.1/+2.0)
Con: 10.9/11.3% (+0.6/-4.2)
LDem: 10.1/9.8% (+0.8/+1.0)
Grn: 5.8/13.0% (-2.2/-0.1)
Oth: 2.1/0.4% (+0.3/-3.4)
LDem: 10.1/9.8% (+0.8/+1.0)
Grn: 5.8/13.0% (-2.2/-0.1)
Oth: 2.1/0.4% (+0.3/-3.4)
(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)
The above Scottish Parliament figures, based on my rough calculations, would result in a new Scottish Parliament of around:-
SNP: 60 (-4)
Rfm: 20 (+20)
Rfm: 20 (+20)
Lab: 17 (-5)
Con: 16 (-15)
LDem: 6 (+2)
Grn: 9 (+2)
Speaker: 1
(65 seats required for a majority, therefore, the likelihood is an SNP/Green coalition, because Scottish Greens support independence. Figures in brackets show movement since the last Scottish Parliament elections in 2022)
LDem: 6 (+2)
Grn: 9 (+2)
Speaker: 1
(65 seats required for a majority, therefore, the likelihood is an SNP/Green coalition, because Scottish Greens support independence. Figures in brackets show movement since the last Scottish Parliament elections in 2022)
There were five IndyRef polls released during the month:-
Yes: 46.8%, No: 43.8%, DK: 10.4%
(Yes: 51.7%, No: 48.3%)
(General Election 2024)
Lab: 35.3%
SNP: 30.0.0%
Con: 12.7%
LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%
Oth: 1.6%).
(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
Con: 21.9/23.5%
Lab: 21.6/17.9%
LDem: 6.9/5.1%
Grn: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).
(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WALES
The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections. As a result, you can expect to see the amount of regional polling taking place in Wales slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it at that level.
There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-
PC: 29.0%
Rfm: 24.0%
Grn: 14.0%
Lab: 12.0%
PC: 29.0%
Rfm: 24.0%
Grn: 14.0%
Lab: 12.0%
Con: 12.0%
LD: 5.0%
Oth: 4.0%
Six Senedd opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-
(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)
PC: 28.3% (-1.4)
Rfm: 26.8% (+0.1)
Lab: 15.0% (-1.7)
Grn: 10.0% (-1.0)
Con: 11.0% (+2.3)
Grn: 10.0% (-1.0)
Con: 11.0% (+2.3)
LD: 5.8% (-0.2)
Oth: 3.1% (+1.9)
Rfm: 33
Oth: 3.1% (+1.9)
The above Welsh Senedd figures, again, like Scotland, based on my rough calculations, would result in a new Welsh Senedd of around:-
Rfm: 33
PC: 32
Lab: 15
Con: 8
Grn: 5
LDem: 2
Speaker: 1
48 seats are required for a majority; therefore, because nobody has won outright, it will require a coalition, the most likely being a simple Plaid/Labour, or, if needed, Plaid/Labour/Green, as opposed to the usual Labour/Plaid. In other words, all change but no change. That will not last long before it folds.
(This is a new format Welsh Senedd with more seats and a different system of 16 multi-member constituencies of 6 seats each, based on a D'Hondt method of counting, so there are no comparable previous figures.)
Grn: 5
LDem: 2
Speaker: 1
48 seats are required for a majority; therefore, because nobody has won outright, it will require a coalition, the most likely being a simple Plaid/Labour, or, if needed, Plaid/Labour/Green, as opposed to the usual Labour/Plaid. In other words, all change but no change. That will not last long before it folds.
(This is a new format Welsh Senedd with more seats and a different system of 16 multi-member constituencies of 6 seats each, based on a D'Hondt method of counting, so there are no comparable previous figures.)
There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-
Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 20.0%
(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)
(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%
(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%
Lab: 39.9%
Con: 26.1%
Plaid: 20.3%
LDem: 4.9%
Grn: 1.6%
Ref: 1.5%
AWA*: 1.5%
UKIP: 0.8%
Propel: 0.6%
(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NORTHERN IRELAND
No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-
No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 19.0%
APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
UUP: 10.0%
SDLP: 10.0%
Grn:2.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
AÚ: 1.0%
Oth: 3.0%
(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
There was one Assembly poll released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-
SF: 24.0% (-1.0)
DUP: 18.0% (-1.0)
DUP: 18.0% (-1.0)
APNI: 11.0% (nc)
UUP: 13.0% (nc)
SDLP: 11.0% (nc)
TUV: 11.0% (nc)
Grn: 5.0% (+1.0)
AÚ: 3.0% (+1.0)
PBP-S: 2.0% (+1.0)
Oth: 2.0% (-1.0)
UUP: 13.0% (nc)
SDLP: 11.0% (nc)
TUV: 11.0% (nc)
Grn: 5.0% (+1.0)
AÚ: 3.0% (+1.0)
PBP-S: 2.0% (+1.0)
Oth: 2.0% (-1.0)
(Unionist 42.9%, Nationalist 45.9%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%
UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%,
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%,
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.
Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government.
Two opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)
FF: 17.5% (+1.5)
FG: 16.5% (-1.5)
SF: 23.5% (-0.5)
SD: 8.5% (+0.5)
LP: 4.0% (nc)
AÚ: 6.0% (nc)
II: 6.5% (+1.5)
GP: 3.0% (-nc)
PBP-S: 3.0% (nc)
Oth: 12.5% (-0.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
(General Election Nov 2024)
FF: 21.9%
FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%
SF: 19.5%
SD: 4.8%
LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%
AU: 3.9%
II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%
GP: 3.0%
PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)
(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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