OPINION POLLING FOR APRIL 2024

This is just a brief foray into the polls for April as I have devoted the bulk of my time to the English local elections etc,  which was quite a lot of work as you can imagine.   Normal service will be resumed next month.

A tumultuous month in UK politics which saw the resignation of the Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf who made a disastrous presumtious decision regarding his coalition partner the Scottish Greens and having to resign as a result.  

Across APRIL there were 34 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 24.4 (-0.1)
Lab  43.3% (+0.2) 
LDem 9.6% (-0.4) 
Grn 5.6% (+0.1) 

Rfm 11.9% (+0.3)

Oth 5.2% (-0.1)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 18-27% (median 22.5), Labour between 40-45% (median 42.5), Reform between 8-16% (median 12.0) and the LDems between 8-12% (median 10.0).  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 34 polls and on 2 occasions showed a 26% lead (People Polling 04 Apr & YouGov 10-11 Apr).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 15-26% (median 20.5).   This is now the third consecutive month  that Reform have out-polled the LDems, with the gap between the two growing and in two polls Reform were only 4% behind the Tories (YouGov 02-03 Apr & 10-11 Apr).

If a General Election were held on these April figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of:-  L457 (+5), C105 (-1), LD44 (-2), SNP19 (-1), PC4 (nc), G2 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 265.    (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 270). 

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%

Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (137 polls)

Con 25.0%, Lab 42.9%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 10.7%, Oth 5.8%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 17.88%

Polling figures for April (34 polls)
Con 24.4%, Lab 43.3%, LDem 9.9%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 11.9%, Oth 5.2%
Lab lead over Con March: 18.88% (+0.25)

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SCOTLAND

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 32.0% (-2.0)

SCon:  15.3% (-0.7)

SLab: 33.0% (-1.0)

SLD: 8.0% (+2.0)

Oth: 11.7% (+1.7)

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 34.8/28.5% (-0.3/+0.5)

SCon: 17.3/15.3% (-0.7/-0.7)

SLab: 31.5/27.8% (+0.5/-1.2)

SLD: 8.5/8.8% (+3.8/-0.2)

SGP: 3.8/8.8% (+0.8/-0.2)

Oth: 4.1/10.8% (-3.9/+1.8)

There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (nc), No: 46.0% (-1.0), DK: 11.0% (+1.0)

(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)

(General Election 2019)

SNP: 45.0%

SCon: 25.1%

SLab: 18.6%

SLDem: 9.5%

Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 40.0% (-9.0)
Con: 18.0% (+2.0)
PC: 14.0% (+4.0)
LDem: 6.0% (+1.0)
Rfm 18.0% (+3.0)
Grn: 4.0% (-1.0)

Oth 0.0% (nc)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

Lab 37.0/33.0% (+1.0/+1.0)
Con 21.0/18.0% (nc/+2.0)
Plaid 22.0/19.0% (+1.0/+1.0)
LDem 4.0/7.0% (+1.0/nc)
Grn: 3.0/6.0% (nc/-3.0)
Rfm 11.0/12.0% (nc/+1.0)
AWA  3.0/4.0% (nc/-2.0)  

Oth -/1.0% (nc/nc)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Last polling figures are reproduced for reference.  (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

Yes: 30% (+3.0),  No: 58% (-3.0), DK: 12% (nc)

(Yes: 34.1%, No: 65.9%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.    Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0% (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)

(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 26.7% (+0.3)

FF: 15.3 (-1.7)

FG: 20.3% (nc

GP: 4.3% (+0.3)

LP: 3.7% (nc)

SD: 5.3% (-1.0)

PBP-S: 2.3% (nc) 

AÚ: 3.7% (nc)

Oth/Ind: 18.4% (+2)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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