OPINION POLLING FOR SEPTEMBER 2026

 

Internationally, the usual fighting in the usual places continues.   The Houthis in Yemen have started making big gains, placing considerable strain on the security of the Red Sea and southern approaches to the Suez Canal, along with interruptions to Saudi Arabia's vital east-west pipeline.  The US is distracted by its forthcoming midterm elections. The UN's IAEA reported that the Assad Regime in Syria had failed to declare both nuclear material and facilities, confirming that infrastructure at Deir ez-Zor was consistent with an unfinished reactor and identifying about 73 tonnes of unrefined uranium.  Turkiye joined the US-led Artemis Accords.  AfD continue to make big gains in Germany, Le Pen's NR hold the lead in France, Italy's Giorgia Meloni becomes the country's longest-ever serving PM, Spain's government continues to struggle with financial scandal, and Portugal's CHEGA has moved within a cat's whisker of topping their polls

Domestically, we saw party conference silly season get underway, with Reform, LDem, and Labour all holding theirs, the Greens starting at month's end, and the Tories starting on the first Sunday of October.  Labour continues to set the tone and the pace, as they gear-up to deliver the first Budget Statement of the new administration. Labour have chosen to re-open the BREXIT debate and vowed to end the state pension Triple-Lock.

Throughout October, 31 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Lab:  26.2% (+0.8)

Rfm: 23.0% (-1.5)

Con: 20.0% (+0.1)

Grn: 10.6% (-0.5) 
LDem: 10.5% (-0.3) 
Oth: 9.7% (+1.4)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Labour led in 29 polls, Reform in 1, and the remaining 1 was tied between the two parties. Labour ranged between 23-30% (median 26.0), Reform ranged between 20-25% (median 23.0), the Tories between 17-23% (median 20.0), the Greens between 7-14% (median 11.0), and the LDems between 8-13% (median 11.0).

If a General Election were held on these SEPTEMBER figures, and including the MRP data released during the month, it would result in a severely hung and basically paralysed  Parliament of:-

🌹Lab:  239 (+24)
➡️Rfm: 172 (-47)

🌳Con: 113 (+42)

🔶LDem: 61 (-8)

🌍Grn: 5 (-4) 

🎗️SNP: 35 (-7)

☠️NI: 18
🌻PC: 4 (+1)
🤡Oth: 2 (nc)
🗞️Speaker: 1 
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 4 July 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

General Election 4 July 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (234 polls)
Rfm 26.2%, Lab 20.8%, Con 19.1%, Grn 13.6%, LDem 11.8%, Oth 8.5%

Polling figures for September 2026 (31 polls)
Lab 26.2%, Reform 23.0%, Con 20.0%,  Grn 10.6%, LDem 10.5%, Oth 9.7%

Lab lead over Rfm Sep: 3.2% (+2.3)
Rfm lead over Con Aug: 3.0% (-1.4)
Lab lead over Con Aug: 6.2% (+0.7)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

Michael Marra was elected the new leader of the Scottish Labour Party.

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show last polling for reference):-

SNP: 29.0%
Lab: 18.0%
Rfm: 17.0%

Grn: 10.0%

Con: 10.0%

LDem: 10.0%

Oth: 6.0%

One Holyrood poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/regional list):-

SNP: 37.0/31.0% (-1.2/+3.6)

Lab: 19.0/18.0% (-0.2/+1.9)
Rfm: 18.0/17.0% (+2.2/+0.2)

Con: 11.0/12.0% (-0.8/+0.1)

LDem: 10.0/11.0% (-1.4/-0.9)

Grn: 5.0/9.0% (+2.7/-5.1)

Oth: 0.0/2.0% (-1.4/-2.3)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month. 

Yes: 48.0%, No: 44.0%, DK: 8.0%

(Yes: 52.2%, No: 47.8%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2026)

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

Two Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Rfm: 25.0% (+1.0)
PC: 24.0% (-1.0)
Lab: 18.5% (+6.5)

Con: 14.5% (+2.5)

LD:  7.0% (+2.0)

Grn: 6.5% (-7.5)

Oth: 4.5% (+0.5)

Two Welsh Parliament polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-:-

PC: 32.5% (-2.9)

Rfm: 29.0% (-0.3)

Lab: 13.5% (+2.4)

Con: 10.0% (-0.7)
Grn: 6.5% (-0.2)
LDem: 5.0% (+0.5)

Oth: 3.5% (+1.2)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month.

Yes: 23.0%, No: 51.0%, DK: 24.0%

(Yes: 31.1%, No: 68.9%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2026, First Preference Vote)
Plaid: 35.4%
Ref: 29.3%
Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%

Grn: 6.7%

LDem: 4.5%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

SF: 22.0%
DUP: 15.0%

APNI: 10.0%
UUP: 16.0%
SDLP: 13.0%
TUV: 12.0%
Grn: 5.0%
AÚ: 3.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43.0%, Nationalist 45.0%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government, as does fragmentation in other member states over things such as freedom of movement.

Four Irish opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

FF: 16.3% (-0.7)

FG: 18.5% (-1.5)

SF: 21.3% (+2.3)

SD:  9.8% (-2.2) 

LP:  3.5% (+0.5)

AÚ:  6.8% (+0.8)

II:  5.8% (-1.2) 

GP:  3.0% (n/c)

PBP-S: 2.5% (+0.5)

Oth:  12.5% (+1.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SPAIN

Just before publishing, it was announced that Spain will hold a snap election.  The left wing Coalition of socialist PM Pedro Sanchez is in serious trouble over housing, immigration and corruption. The latest opinion polls are (figures in brackets show change from the :-

PP: 32.5% (-0.6) (similar to Tories)
PSOE: 26.7% (-5.0) (Similar to Labour)
VOX: 18.7% (+6.3) (Similar to Reform)
SUMAR: 5.8% (n/a) (similar to Green Corbynism)
11 OTHERS: 16.3% (n/a) (from Nazi through to Communist)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~