OPINION POLLING FOR AUGUST 2026

 

Internationally, the usual wars rumble on.  Nepal suffered a horrendous flood, literally an inland 'tsunami' following a glacier collapse.  Observers of Africa will have noticed that the DRC not only still has Ebola but that it is continuing to spread and now also has a hunger problem to contend with.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni now holds the record for the longest unbroken leadership of an Italian government. 

Domestically, August is always a dull month in UK politics as all the 'players' zoom off on their holidays, the media recycles old stories to fill the vacuum, and the electorate takes greater interest in BBQs.  But not this August. Nigel Farage retained his seat in Clacton with, disturbingly for the establishment, a larger majority on the back of a higher turnout, meaning he is more popular now in his seat than when he won it in 2024.  New PM Andy Burnham went on a trot round the UK to 'meet the people' (he actually 'met' a very tightly controlled, pre-selected, pre-vetted audience) and amused us with serious Prime Ministerial duties such as making TikTok videos of himself eating pork scratchings (his TikTok videos are so onerous that the Crewkerne Gazette mickey-taking is actually more believable and certainly more entertaining).

Throughout August, 26 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Lab:  25.4% (+2.5)

Rfm: 24.5% (nc)

Con: 19.9% (-0.1)

Grn: 11.1% (-1.2) 
LDem: 10.8% (-0.5) 
Oth: 8.3% (-0.7)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Labour led in 17 polls, Reform in 6, and the remaining 3 were tied between the two parties. Labour ranged between 22-30% (median 27.0), Reform ranged between 22-27% (median 25.0), the Tories between 18-23% (median 20.0), the Greens between 8-14% (median 10.5), and the LDems between 8-13% (median 11.0).

If a General Election were held on these AUGUST figures, it would result in a disaster of epic proportions for the UK.   It is all but impossible for anyone to cobble together a workable coalition because of the parties' various demands and 'red-line' positions. The best the Right could probably muster is around 295, including NI unionists, whereas the best the left could weave would be around 284, plus the occasional support of the Greens, but even that is not enough.  The SNP are adamant they will not prop up any government in Westminster unless it grants Indyref2, to be carried out in the first year, and no Westminster politicians take part in campaigning unless they hold seats in Scotland.  Plaid will fence-sit and demand whatever the SNP are offered. I invite anyone to cobble together a working stable coalition given the demands imposed by nationalists, and the demands the Greens will make. Have a go, and remember, every party involved in your coalition will have to surrender core policies in one area or another of their ideology.

➡️Rfm: 219 (+8)

🌹Lab:  215 (+35)

🌳Con: 71 (-21)

🔶LDem: 69 (-1)

🌍Grn: 9 (-16) 

🎗️SNP: 43 (-4)

☠️NI: 18
🌻PC: 3 (nc)
🤡Oth: 2 (-1)
🗞️Speaker: 1 
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 4 July 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

General Election 4 July 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (203 polls)
Rfm 26.6%, Lab 20.2%, Con 19.0%, Grn 14.0%, LDem 11.9%, Oth 8.3%

Polling figures for August 2026 (26 polls)
Lab 25.4%, Reform 24.5%, Con 19.9%,  Grn 11.1%, LDem 10.8%, Oth 8.3%

Lab lead over Rfm Aug: 0.9% (+2.5)
Rfm lead over Con Aug: 4.6% (+0.1)
Lab lead over Con Aug: 5.5% (+2.6)

The 'Burnham Bounce'?

The 'Burnham Bounce', such as it was, now appears to be all but over.   It seems to have peaked in the period 24 Jul-17 Aug. Unless it suddenly re-appears, I won't mention it again.

Clacton-By-Election - Result.

Enough said.  If the establishment is stupid enough to have another go later this year, they'll get what they deserve.  Publicly humiliated.

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SCOTLAND

One Westminster poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 29.0% (-5.0)
Lab: 18.0% (+2.0)
Rfm: 17.0% (nc)

Grn: 10.0% (nc)

Con: 10.0% (nc)

LDem: 10.0% (nc)

Oth: 6.0% (+2.0)

No Holyrood polls were released during the month. The last polling, the full slate elections of 07 May, are below (constituency/regional list):-

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month. 

Yes: 47.5%, No: 44.4%, DK: 8.1%

(Yes: 51.7%, No: 48.3%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2026)

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

PC: 29.0%
Rfm: 24.0%
Grn: 14.0%
Lab: 12.0%

Con: 12.0%

LD:  5.0%

Oth: 4.0%

No Welsh Parliament polls were released during the month. (Figures show the First Preference vote of May's election for reference):-

PC: 35.4%

Rfm: 29.3%

Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%
Grn: 6.7%
LDem: 4.5%

Oth: 2.3%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 20.0%

(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2026, First Preference Vote)
Plaid: 35.4%
Ref: 29.3%
Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%

Grn: 6.7%

LDem: 4.5%

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

SF: 22.0%
DUP: 15.0%

APNI: 10.0%
UUP: 16.0%
SDLP: 13.0%
TUV: 12.0%
Grn: 5.0%
AÚ: 3.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43.0%, Nationalist 45.0%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government, as does fragmentation in other member states over things such as freedom of movement.

No Irish opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

FF: 17.0%

FG: 20.0%

SF: 19.0%

SD:  12.0%

LP:  3.0%

AÚ:  6.0%

II:  7.0%

GP:  3.0%

PBP-S: 2.0%

Oth:  11.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

Meanwhile in Das Vaterland, a crucial Regional Parliament election is taking place.  Germany, for the unaware, is a highly autonomous Federal Republic of 16 federal states consisting of 13 regions and 3 cities.  In one such region over in the east, Saxony-Anhalt is holding a full slate election in which populist-Right AfD are expected to win and win big.  There is massive reaction at ground level to 'migrant dumping' going on by the Federal government in Berlin.  Many of the 'recent arrivals', including the 2m that Angela Merkel welcomed back in 2015, were literally 'dumped' into the east.  The east is economically depressed, and after the unification of East & West Germany, large swathes of German skilled workers left the east for the west, where they could get better pay and an immediate better life.  This left a lot of low-quality former communist housing available. Because huge numbers of migrants were unskilled and only semi-literate and therefore unlikely to ever work, it quickly became a 'square peg in a square hole' option for Bonn to place economically inactive migrants, who were likely to remain economically inactive, into economically depressed areas with lots of cheap, low-quality housing.  Something similar happened on a far smaller scale in the west in many former British Army garrison towns, such as Fallingbostel, as well as former US bases.

The State Parliament of Saxony-Anhalt consists of at least 83 members, though this number may increase due to overhang and compensatory mandates. Of these, 41 members are directly elected in constituencies, while the remaining seats are allocated to parties based on their state lists. Each voter has two votes: a first vote (Erststimme) to elect a constituency representative and a second vote (Zweitstimme) to select a party's state list, which determines the proportional distribution of seats in the parliament. The Hare/Niemeyer method governs seat allocation, and only parties receiving at least 5% of valid second votes are considered for proportional distribution.

The result will be announced late Sunday/early Monday and, if the polling holds up, will be politically shattering for both the Federal Republic and Europe as a whole, where the populist-right is now prominent virtually everywhere.

The last 7 opinion polls, released from late August to polling day, are produced below:

AfD: 41.7% (similar to Reform)

CDU: 22.7% (similar to the Tories)

LINKE: 12.4% (sort of Corbynist-Labour, anti-NATO, anti-EU)

SPD:  12.0% (similar to Blair/Starmer Labour)

BSW:  7.0% (very similar to LINKE)

FDP:  3.0% (liberalist free-marketeers)

GRUNE:  5.3% (Greens) 

Oth:  3.9.% (-0.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(State Election 2021)

CDU: 29.8% (30 seats)

AfD: 24.3% (25 seats)
Linke: 16.3% (16 seats)

SPD: 10.6% (11 seats)

Grüne: 5.3% (5 seats)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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