OPINION POLLING FOR JULY 2026

    

Internationally, not much change anywhere.  Spain won what must have been one of the worst, most tedious, low quality World Cups in my lifetime.  The Spanish government and the EU also went into meltdown over border incursions by illegals in the Spanish north African territories of Ceuta and Melila. Germany has reverted to it's standard position of the last decade of a Coalition government on the verge of collapse. 

Domestically, Labour's Andy Burnham completed his coup, announced his new Cabinet and scattered a few baubles to the masses.  The 'Burnham Bounce' finally materialised but appears to be peaking already.  Labour retained the Gtr Manchester Mayoralty.

Throughout July, 28 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 24.5% (-2.2)
Lab:  22.9% (+3.1)

Con: 20.0% (+0.9)

Grn: 12.3% (-0.7) 
LDem: 11.3% (-1.1) 
Oth: 9.0% (-1.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in 17 of the polls released in June, with Labour leading in 6 and 5 tied by the two parties. Reform ranged between 22-29% (median 24.0), Labour ranged between18-28% (median 22.0), the Tories between 17-22% (median 20.0), the Greens between 8-16% (median 12.5), and the LDems between 8-14% (median 11.0).

If a General Election were held on these JULY figures, it would probably result in a Reform-Tory-DUP Coalition, as that is the most stable majority grouping and involves the fewest number of parties with the most closely aligned political positions, with a majority of around 10 due to factors such as Sinn Féin not taking their seats and the DUP's support for most of their plans.

➡️Rfm: 211 (-103)

🌹Lab:  180 (+95)

🌳Con: 92 (+28)

🔶LDem: 70 (+12)

🌍Grn: 25 (-21) 

🎗️SNP: 47 (+1)

☠️NI: 18
🌻PC: 3 (-9)
🤡Oth: 3 (-1)
🗞️Speaker: 1 
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (177 polls)
Rfm 26.9%, Lab 19.4%, Con 18.9%, Grn 14.4%, LDem 12.1%, Oth 8.3%

Polling figures for July 2026 (28 polls)
Rfm 24.5%, Lab 22.9%, Con 20.0%,  Grn 12.3%, LDem 11.3%, Oth 9.0%

Rfm lead over Lab Jun: 1.6% (-5.3)
Rfm lead over Con Jun: 4.5% (-2.1)
Lab lead over Con Jun: 2.9% (+2.2)

The 'Burnham Bounce'?

Using all measures where all sampling took place AFTER Burnham took charge of No10 until July 31st reveals that there is now a 'bounce' underway and that it is at or very close to its peak.  The 'post-coronation' average is:-

Rfm: 24.5%
Lab:  24.5%

Con: 20.1%

Grn: 11.3%
LDem: 10.8%
Oth: 8.8%

Looking at the shift, the hardest hit by the 'bounce ' are the other parties of the Left - the LDems, Greens, SNP & Plaid.  Reform have taken a small hit, but not as badly as the others, and the Tories have also benefitted slightly and probably account for slightly more than half of Reform's decline during the 'bounce surge'. (early polling for August suggests the 'bounce' has indeed finished).

Gtr Manchester Mayoral Election - Result.

Labour's Bev Craig won the Mayoralty as was expected.  The Tories will have been shocked to finish fifth behind Restore.  Voting patterns across the ten boroughs showed that in Reform's heartlands, such as Oldham MBC, their vote held up.

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SCOTLAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show  last polling for reference):-

SNP: 34.0%
Rfm: 17.0%
Lab: 16.0%

Grn: 10.0%
Con: 10.0%

LDem: 9.0%

Oth: 4.0%

No Holyrood polls were released during the month. Last polling, the full slate elections of 07 May, are below (constituency/regional list):-

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Last polling is shown for reference:-

Yes: 49.0%, No: 45%, DK: 6.0%

(Yes: 52.1%, No: 47.9%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2026)

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

PC: 29.0%
Rfm: 24.0%
Grn: 14.0%
Lab: 12.0%

Con: 12.0%

LD:  5.0%

Oth: 4.0%

There were no Welsh Parliament polls released during the month. (Figures show the First Preference vote of May's election for reference):-

PC: 35.4%

Rfm: 29.3%

Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%
Grn: 6.7%
LDem: 4.5%

Oth: 2.3%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 20.0%

(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2026, First Preference Vote)
Plaid: 35.4%
Ref: 29.3%
Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%

Grn: 6.7%

LDem: 4.5%

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 22.0% (-2.0)
DUP: 15.0% (-3.0)

APNI: 10.0% (-1.0)
UUP: 16.0% (+3.0)
SDLP: 13.0% (+2.0)
TUV: 12.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)
AÚ: 3.0% (nc)
PBP-S: 2.0% (nc)
Oth: 2.0% (nc)

(Unionist 43.0%, Nationalist 45.0%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government.  The Irish government is also starting to express serious concern with the demands of other EU members who want the EU borders significantly toughened and Freedom of Movement restricted closed becuase of the Ceuta incident.

One opinion poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 17.0% (+2.0)

FG: 20.0% (+1.5)

SF: 19.0% (-1.5)

SD:  12.0% (nc)

LP:  3.0% (-0.5)

AÚ:  6.0% (nc)

II:  7.0% (nc)

GP:  3.0% ( nc)

PBP-S: 2.0% (-1.0) 

Oth:  11.0% (-0.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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