OPINION POLLING FOR OCTOBER 2026

My apologies for this being a tad late and a bit briefer at the intro.  Injured myself at work, shattered my left shoulder and upper humerus, and am reduced to typing somewhat clumsily with just one hand.

Throughout October, 27 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

🌹Lab:  28.3% (+2.1)

➡️Rfm: 22.3% (-0.7)

🌳Con: 20.9% (+0.9)

🔶LDem: 9.7% (-0.8) 

🌍Grn: 9.3% (-1.3) 
🤡Oth: 9.5% (-0.2)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Labour led in all 27 polls, ranging between 24-32% (median 28.0), Reform ranged between 20-25% (median 22.0), the Tories between 17-24% (median 21.0), the LDems between 7-12% (median 10.0), and the Greens between 7-13% (median 9.0).

Looking at the drill-downs in the tables and spreadsheets from the polling companies suggests that Labour seem to be taking support primarily from the Greens and only marginally from the LDems; the Tories seem to be taking support from the LDems; and Reform seems to be mostly losing out to Rupert Lowe's Restore.

If a General Election were held on these OCTOBER figures, including the MRP data released during the month, it would result in a Labour majority of around 28, although it would be higher because Sinn Féin refuses to take their seats.:-

🌹Lab:  338 (+100)

🌳Con: 102 (-11)
➡️Rfm: 86 (-121)

🔶LDem: 60 (-1)

🌍Grn: 2 (-3) 

🎗️SNP: 39 (+4)

☠️NI: 18
🌻PC: 3 (-1)
🤡Oth: 1 (-1)
🗞️Speaker: 1 
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 4 July 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

General Election 4 July 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (261 polls)
Rfm 25.8%, Lab 21.6%, Con 19.3%, Grn 13.2%, LDem 11.6%, Oth 8.6%

Polling figures for October 2026 (27 polls)
Lab 28.3%, Reform 22.3%, Con 20.9%, LDem 9.7%, Grn 9.3%, Oth 9.5%

Lab lead over Rfm Oct: 6.0% (+2.8)
Rfm lead over Con Oct: 2.1% (-0.7)
Lab lead over Con Oct: 7.4% (+1.2)

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SCOTLAND

Six Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show last polling for reference):-

SNP: 31.5% (+1.5)
Lab: 20.5 (2.5)
Rfm: 17.0% (nc)

Grn: 10.0% (-3.0)

Con: 11.7 (+1.7)

LDem: 8.0% (-2.0) 

Oth: 4.2%

Three Holyrood polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/regional list):-

SNP: 34.0/30.0% (-3.0/-1.0)

Lab: 19.3/19.0% (+0.3/+1.0)
Rfm: 15.7/15.7% (-2.3/-1.3)

Con: 12.0/12.3% (+1.0/+0.3)

LDem: 9.7/9.3% (-0.3/-1,7)

Grn: 5.3/10.0% (+0.3/+1.0)

Oth: 3.3/3.7%

There were five IndyRef polls released during the month. 

Yes: 45.6%, No: 44.2%, DK: 9.8%

(Yes: 50.8%, No: 49.2%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2026)

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

Dan Thomas resigned as leader of Reform UK Wales but retained his seat as a Reform MS, and Helen Jenner was elected to replace him as leader of the Reform group and leader of the Opposition.

One Westminster poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Rfm: 27.0% (+2.0)
Lab: 22.0% (+3.5)
PC: 18.0% (-6.0)

Con: 16.0% (+1.5)

LD:  5.0% (-2.0)

Grn: 9.0% (+2.5)

Oth: 3.0% (-1.5)

Two Welsh Parliament polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

PC: 32.0% (-0.5)

Rfm: 27.0% (-0.2)

Lab: 15.5% (+2.0)

Con: 11.5% (+1.5)

Grn: 6.5% (nc)
LDem: 5.0% (nc)

Oth: 3.0% (-0.5)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show last polling for reference):-

Yes: 23.0%, No: 51.0%, DK: 24.0%

(Yes: 31.1%, No: 68.9%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2026, First Preference Vote)
Plaid: 35.4%
Ref: 29.3%
Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%

Grn: 6.7%

LDem: 4.5%

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):- 

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Two Assembly polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 29.0% (+7.0)
DUP: 16.0% (+1.0)

APNI: 9.0% (-1.0)
UUP: 14.0% (-2.0)
SDLP: 10.0% (-3.0)
TUV: 12.5% (+0.5)
Grn: 3.5% (-1.5)
AÚ: 1.5% (-1.5)
PBP-S: 1.0% (-1.0)
Oth: 3.5%

(Unionist 44.0%, Nationalist 46.6%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government, as does fragmentation in other member states over things such as freedom of movement.

Three Irish opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

FF: 16.3% (nc)

FG: 17.0% (-1.5)

SF: 20.7% (-0.6)

SD:  10.3% (+0,5) 

LP:  3.7% (+0.2)

AÚ:  8.3% (+1.5)

II:  6.7% (+0.9) 

GP:  3.0% (nc)

PBP-S: 3.3% (+0.7)

Oth:  11.3% (-1.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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SPAIN

The snap Spanish general election will take place on Sunday 29 November with all 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies up for election, as well as 209 of 267 seats in the Senate.  The left-wing coalition of socialist PM Pedro Sanchez is in serious trouble over housing, immigration and corruption. 

Forty-four Spanish opinion polls were released during the month. (figures in brackets show change from last polling):-

PP: 35.4% (+2.9) (similar to Badenoch/Thatcher Tories)
PSOE: 31.1% (+4.4) (Similar to Burnham Labour)
VOX: 20.8% (+2.1) (Similar to Reform)
SUMAR: 6.7% (+0.8) (similar to Green Corbynism)
11 OTHERS: 6.0% (-10.3) (from Nazi through to Communist)

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