OPINION POLLING FOR FEBRUARY 2026

 

The month abroad saw the US and Israel launch the long-awaited attack on Iran at month's end,  more Epstein files released, fighting break-out between Pakistan & Afghanistan.

Here in the UK, Labour's meltdown continues, the voters of Gorton & Denton delivered their verdict, the government U-turned (yet again) this time over delaying local elections in 30 councils,  Prince's became non-Princes, Lords will shortly become non-Lords, government Bills were in disarray, back-bench rebellions were rife, and the Chagos drama descended into pure farce.  It rained.  And when it wasn't raining it pissed-down.

Throughout February, 22 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 28.4% (-0.6)

Con: 18.9% (-0.1)

Lab:  19.0% (+0.2)

Grn: 14.4% (+0.5) 
LDem: 12.3% (-0.4) 
Oth: 7.0% (+0.4)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll in February, with leads of between 2-13% (median 8.0). Reform has now led in every poll bar 3 since mid-April 2025, and even in those three, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 22-30% (median 29.0), Labour ranged between15-23% (median 19.0), the Tories between 16-22% (median 19.0), the Greens between 9-19% (median 14.0), and the LDems between 10-14% (median 12.0).

If a General Election were held on these FEBRUARY figures it would result in a Reform majority government of around 82 with: Rfm346 (-17), L48 (-36), LD62 (-1), SNP45 (nc), C62 (+28), Grn58 (+23), PC5 (-1), NI18, Oth5 (-8), Speaker1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (46 polls)
Rfm 28.7%, Con 19.0%, Lab 18.9%, Grn 14.2%, LDem 12.5%, Oth 6.8%

Polling figures for February 2026 (22 polls)
Rfm 28.4%, Con 18.9%, Lab 19.0%, Grn 14.4%, LDem 12.3%, Oth 7.0%

Rfm lead over Lab Feb: 9.4% (-0.8)
Rfm lead over Con Feb: 9.5% (-0.5)
Lab lead over Con Feb: 0.1% (+0.3)

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SCOTLAND

Full-slate Scottish Parliamentary Elections will take place on 7 May 2026.

Two Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 31.7% (+0.2)
Rfm: 22.3% (+0.3)
Lab: 15.0% (-2.0)
Con: 10.0% (-1.5)

Grn: 9.7% (+2.2)

LDem: 8.7% (-0.3)

Oth: 1.1% (-0.4)

There were five Holyrood polls released during the month. (Constituency/Regional) (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 34.6/28.6% (+0.1/-0.1)
Rfm: 19.0/18.8% (+0.3/-2.2)
Lab: 16.0/15.6% (-0.7/+1.1)
Con:  9.8/11.0% (-1.5/-1.0)
LDem:  9.6/10.2% (+0.3/+0.5)
Grn: 8.0/11.8% (-1.0/+1.1)
Oth: 3.0/3.8% (+1.5/+3.6)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

There were six IndyRef polls released during the month:-

Yes: 47.7%, No: 44.2%, DK: 8.1%

(Yes:51.9%, No: 48.1%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

Con: 21.9/23.5%

Lab: 21.6/17.9%

LDem: 6.9/5.1%

Grn: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of regional polling taking place in Wales slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it at that level.

No Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

PC: 29.0%
Rfm: 25.0%
Lab: 13.0%

Con: 12.0%

Grn: 12.0%
LD:  6.0%

Oth: 3.0%

Two Senedd opinion polls were released during the month. Figures displayed show Constituency First Preference voting, based on the new system (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Rfm: 29.0% (+1.7)

PC: 25.5% (-5.2.)
Lab:  20.0% (+7.0)
Con: 11.5% (-0.5)

Grn: 6.0% (-3.7)

LD:  5.5% (-0.8)
Oth: 2.5% (+1.5)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 20.0%

(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

The Senedd voting system will change for the 2026 Senedd election. The Senedd will be expanded from 60 to 96 seats. The new voting system will adopt a PR-based, closed-list party system centred on 16 'super-constituencies,' each with six seats. Voters will only be able to vote for a party rather than for individual candidates. A D'Hondt-type method will then be employed to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with parties then assigning individuals to the seats they win from lists they have submitted. This means that party-appointed delegates will replace directly elected representatives, which undermines the principles of democracy and accountability.

Moreover, the method being promoted by Labour and Plaid is actually prohibited under EU law, meaning that if they were to achieve their goal of re-joining, they would have to abandon it. It will require approximately 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat, making the system even less representative than the current Additional Member System (AMS). The only countries using a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, and Uruguay. 

If this increase to 96 seats were replicated at the Westminster level, it would mean over 2,000 MPs in Parliament. Wales is already more politically and civil servant-heavy than the other three Home Nations, and this change will only exacerbate that imbalance. It seems unbelievable.

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

No Assembly polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 25.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 11.0%
UUP: 13.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Grn: 4.0%
AÚ: 2.0%
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44.3%, Nationalist 44.3%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government.

Four opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 18.0% (+1.5)

FG: 17.6% (-0.4)

SF: 22.3% (+0.3)

SD:  9.3% (+0.8)

LP:  4.3% (+0.3)

AÚ:  5.0% (-+0.5)

II:  4.8% (-0.2)

GP:  3.5% (nc)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 12.2% (-2.8)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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For those that were unaware,. have been living off-grid or have just awoken from a coma,  a bit of a by-election took place in the Manchester seat of Gorton & Denton, one of their safest seats. The result was a political earthquake, with the incumbents - Labour, finishing third and the Tories also seeing their worst by-election result on record. The final result was a stunning victory for the Greens, along with mass-panic internally in the Labour Party as their usually guarenteed asian-muslim & student bloc vote deserted them:-

(The % shift may seem strange, but it's the %vote cast this time in comparison

to the %vote cast last time, when there were fewer candidates)

Main data points;
1. This is only the second time in its history that Labour has finished third in a by-election in a seat they won in the previous election. The other was in 1982 in Mitcham & Morden, which was followed by the 1983 General Election, when Labour suffered its worst-ever defeat.
2. In 86 previous by-elections in which they stood, this is the first time the Greens have polled above 10%.
3. This combination of under-30's, Asian-Muslims & students (the core Green vote on the day) only exists in 30 other seats in the country. This is the 23rd most Asian-Muslim seat in the country, and because of the universities in the area, it has a high student population.
4. Given how the various socio-economic groups and demographics in this seat voted,  and then adjusted for Scottish & Welsh nationalists, Reform would win around 400 seats in a general election.
5. Labour activists in Manchester are absolutely furious and believe they were forced by London to play this all wrong with the wrong manifesto and the wrong candidate. They say London spent too long attacking Reform, allowing the Greens to outflank them. Labour national organisers, however, say they are trapped in a perfect vice. They cannot move both ways at once, and if they tac right, the Greens eat their left flank,  if they tac left, Reform eats their right flank.
6. The combined Green/Reform vote was 69.3% of all votes cast. That is the first time in electoral history that two minority parties have taken that much of the vote, and no mainstream party has finished in the top 2.
7. On the last day, over 1,000 Labour activists were out in the seat, 12 Cabinet Ministers and 36 MPs.   Labour put more effort and resources into this by-election than any other in their history.
8. The Greens have vowed to replace Labour as the party of the Left and wipe them out.   They have vowed never to enter into any electoral pacts with them. The top 100 seats that the Greens can possibly win are all Labour seats.
9. The Greens say one of the biggest issues on the doorstep was tenants renting in the private sector, who earn too much to qualify for rent assistance but are paying a third to a half of their income in rent. (Rents are not included in the CPI cost of living calculation deliberately).
10. We are now firmly in the era of 5-party politics (6-party in Scotland & Wales), where you can win a seat with 25% or less of the vote cast in that seat.
11. Most Labour MPs are not feeling particularly threatened by the Greens but feeling very threatened by Reform.
12. Labour is facing a far bigger blood-bath in the Scottish & Welsh Wales and the English councils in May than it thought.

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