OPINION POLLING FOR MARCH 2026

The month abroad was completely overshadowed by the bit of a kerfuffle going on over Iran.  With US and Israeli bombing now placing greater emphasis on infrastructure etc, by next month's edition, Iran's manufacturing base and key infrastructure stands a good chance of being non-existent

Here in the UK, Labour's meltdown continues in the long-term trajectory but has shown a brief up-tick in personal support for Prime Minister Keir Starmer though it must be said he continues to look panicked and scared over global events over which he has no control.   As British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once said, "Events dear boy, events".   You can either be a leader or be led.  Leaders dictate events and set the agenda; the led have no control over anything.

The spectre of Mandelson continues to haunt Labour, with Morgan McSweeney's phone, possibly containing vital electronic messages, caused a tear in the space-time continuum, and fell through a hole into the 4th dimension. Honest.

Throughout March, 28 Westminster polls were released, clearly reflecting growing interest as the campaigns for the May elections campaigns got underway. More polls means the average becomes more accurate. Reform dipped again, but as dinghy crossings start to increase with the summer season, their support will also increase. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 26.7% (-1.4)
Lab:  18.2% (-0.8)

Con: 18.0% (-0.9)

Grn: 16.4% (+2.0) 
LDem: 12.1% (-0.2) 
Oth: 8.6% (+1.6)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll in March, with leads of between 2-12% (median 7.0). Reform has now led in every poll bar 3 since mid-April 2025, and even in those three, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 22-30% (median 27.0), Labour ranged between15-22% (median 18.0), the Tories between 16-21% (median 18.0), the Greens between 11-21% (median 16.5), and the LDems between 9-14% (median 12.0).

If a General Election were held on these MARCH figures it would result in a Reform majority government of around 20 with: Rfm335 (-11), Grn72 (+14), LD64 (+2), C61(-2), L43 (-5),  SNP48 (+3), PC5 (nc), NI18, Oth3 (-2), Speaker1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (74 polls)
Rfm 28.0%, Lab 18.7%, Con 18.6%, Grn 14.9%, LDem 12.4%, Oth 7.4%

Polling figures for March 2026 (22 polls)
Rfm 26.7%, Lab 18.2%, Con 18.0%, Grn 16.4%, LDem 12.1%, Oth 8.6%

Rfm lead over Lab Mar: 8.5% (-0.9)
Rfm lead over Con Feb: 8.7% (-0.8)
Lab lead over Con Feb: 0.2% (+0.1)

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SCOTLAND

Full-slate Scottish Parliamentary Elections will take place on 7 May 2026.  Voters are now focusing properly and pollsters are being more accurate as to the true state-of-play.  Because voters in the devolved nations have an extra layer of administration, you can start to see how voters behave differently at the various levels and will vote differently without any hesitation at all, including voting differently with their two votes at Holyrood.

ALBA have de-registered as a political party citing a “dire financial plight”, declining membership and falling income. The decision has effectively brought an end to the party, with NEC member Angus MacNeil describing the development as a “sad and unnecessary end” to Salmond's project while criticising the leadership's handling of the situation. Following the announcement from MacAskill, several of ALBA's candidates who were due to stand in the Scottish Parliamentary elections in May, defected to ALS (Alliance to Liberate Scotland), including the seemingly immortal Tommy Sheridan and former ALBA member, Craig Murray. 

Three Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 33.3% (+1.6)
Rfm: 18.7% (-3.6)
Lab: 16.0% (+1.0)

Grn: 10.0% (+0.3)
Con: 9.3% (-0.7)

LDem: 9.3% (+0.6)

Oth: 3.4% (+2.3)

There were four Holyrood polls released during the month. (Constituency/Regional) (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 36.8/30.3% (+2.2/+1.7)

Lab: 17.3/16.1% (+1.3/+0.5)
Rfm: 16.5/15.8% (-2.5/-2.6)

Con: 10.3/15.5% (+0.5/+4.5)
LDem: 9.3/8.8% (-0.3/-1.0)
Grn: 8.0/13.1% (nc/+1.3)
Oth: 1.8/0.4% (-1.2/-3.4)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month:-

Yes: 44.5%, No: 45.0%, DK: 10.5%

(Yes:49.7%, No: 50.3%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

Con: 21.9/23.5%

Lab: 21.6/17.9%

LDem: 6.9/5.1%

Grn: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of regional polling taking place in Wales slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it at that level.

There was one  Westminster poll were released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

PC: 29.0% (nc)
Rfm: 24.0% (-1.0)
Grn: 14.0% (+2.0)
Lab: 12.0% (-1.0)

Con: 12.0% (nc)

LD:  5.0% (-1.0)

Oth: 4.0% (-1.0)

Three Senedd opinion polls were released during the month. Figures displayed show Constituency First Preference voting, based on the new system (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

PC: 29.7% (+4.2.)

Rfm: 26.7% (-2.3)

Lab:  16.7% (-3.3)
Grn: 11.0% (+5.0)
Con: 8.7% (-2.5)

LD:  6.0% (+0.5)
Oth: 1.2% (-1.3)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 20.0%

(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

The Senedd voting system will change for the 2026 Senedd election. The Senedd will be expanded from 60 to 96 seats. The new voting system will adopt a PR-based, closed-list party system centred on 16 'super-constituencies,' each with six seats. Voters will be able to vote only for a party, not for individual candidates and only one vote. A D'Hondt-type method will then be employed to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with parties then assigning individuals to the seats they win from candidate lists they have pre-submitted. This means that party-appointed delegates will replace directly elected representatives, which undermines the principles of democracy and accountability.

Moreover, the method being promoted by Labour and Plaid is actually prohibited under EU law, meaning that if they were to achieve their goal of re-joining, they would have to abandon it. It will require approximately 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat, making the system even less representative than the current Additional Member System (AMS). The only countries using a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, and Uruguay. 

If this increase to 96 seats were replicated at the Westminster level, it would mean over 2,000 MPs in Parliament. Wales is already more politically and civil servant-heavy than the other three Home Nations, and this change will only exacerbate that imbalance. It seems unbelievable.

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

No Assembly polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 25.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 11.0%
UUP: 13.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Grn: 4.0%
AÚ: 2.0%
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44.3%, Nationalist 44.3%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government.

One opinion poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 16.0% (-2.0)

FG: 18.0% (+0.4)

SF: 24.0% (+1.7)

SD:  8.0% (-1.3)

LP:  4.0% (-0.3)

AÚ:  6.0% (+1.0)

II:  5.0% (+0.2)

GP:  3.0% (-0.5)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 13.0% (+0.8)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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