OPINION POLLING FOR JANUARY 2026

The month abroad saw the annual Davos knees-up,  the US making claims over Greenland, Venezuela capitulating,  the new Syrian government attacking and overrunning the Kurdish areas in northern and north-eastern Syria, and the US gearing up to deal with Iran after the regime survived all the rioting.  The war in Ukraine rumbles on.

Here in the UK, Labour's meltdown continues.  The PM went on a largely pointless visit to China, Andrew Gwynne resigned as MP for Gorton & Denton, triggering a by-election to take place at the end of February, for which Gtr Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham threw his hat in the ring and was promptly kicked in the gonads by the Labour NEC who rejected his application a humiliating 8-1 and effectively ended his dreams of Labour leadership this side of the next General Election.  Labour rattled-out u-turns and policy abandonments at a rate that would make a machine-gunner jealous.

Epstein erupted, but that occurred after the month's end so I will mention it next month, but as a taster, so far it is having a dramatic effect on polling.

Throughout January, 24 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 29.0% (-0.2)

Con: 19.0% (-0.4)

Lab:  18.8% (+0.3)

Grn: 13.9% (+0.2) 
LDem: 12.7% (+0.1) 
Oth: 6.6% (-nc)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll in January, with leads of between 4-14% (median 8.5). Reform has now led in every poll bar 3 since mid-April, and even in those three, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 24-33% (median 29.5), Labour ranged between14-22% (median 19.0), the Tories between 17-23% (median 19.0), the Greens between 10-19% (median 13.0), and the LDems between 11-16% (median 12.0).

If a General Election were held on these JANUARY figures it would result in a Reform majority government of around 82 with: Rfm363 (-3), L84 (+4), LD63 (+2), SNP45 (-2), C34 (-4), Grn23 (+3), PC6 (nc), NI18, Oth13 (nc), Speaker1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (24 polls)
Rfm 29.0%, Con 19.0%, Lab 18.8%, Grn 13.9%, LDem 12.7%, Oth 6.6%

Polling figures for January 2026 (24 polls)
Rfm 29.0%, Con 19.0%, Lab 18.8%, Grn 13.9%, LDem 12.7%, Oth 6.6%

Rfm lead over Lab Dec: 10.2% (-0.5)
Rfm lead over Con Dec: 10.0% (+0.2)
Con lead over Lab Dec: 0.2% (-0.7)

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SCOTLAND

Two Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 31.5% (-1.0)
Rfm: 22.0% (+0.5)
Lab: 17.0% (+2.0)
Con: 11.5% (+1.0)

LDem: 9.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 7.5% (-3.0)

Oth: 1.5% (nc)

There were three Holyrood polls released during the month. (Constituency/Regional) (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 34.5/28.7% (nc/-0.3)
Rfm: 18.7/22.0% (-0.7/+3.0)
Lab: 16.7/16.7% (+1.7/+1.7)
Con:  11.3/12.0% (+1.3/+1.0)
LDem:  9.3/9.7% (+0.3/+1.7)
Grn: 8.0/10.7% (-1.0/-4.3)
Oth: 1.5/0.2% (-1.5/-2.8)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

There were three IndyRef polls released during the month:-

Yes: 44.7%, No: 45.7%, DK: 9.3%

(Yes: 49.4%, No: 50.6%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

Con: 21.9/23.5%

Lab: 21.6/17.9%

LDem: 6.9/5.1%

Grn: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Rfm: 25.0% (-5.0)
PC: 29.0% (+10)
Lab: 13.0% (-2.0)

Con: 12.0% (-1.0)

Grn: 12.0% (-2.0)
LD:  6.0% (-2.0)

Three Senedd opinion polls were released during the month. Figures displayed show Constituency First Preference voting, based on the new system (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

PC: 30.7% (+1.2)
Rfm: 27.3% (-1.2)
Lab:  13.0% (-2.5)
Con: 12.0% (+1.0)

Grn: 9.7% (+0.7)

LD:  6.3% (+1.8)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 12.0%

(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. The Senedd will be expanded from 60 to 96 seats. The new voting system will adopt a PR-based, closed-list party system centred on 16 'super-constituencies,' each with six seats. Voters will only be able to vote for a party rather than for individual candidates. A D'Hondt-type method will then be employed to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with parties then assigning individuals to the seats they win from lists that are not publicly disclosed. This means that party-appointed delegates will replace directly elected representatives, which undermines the principles of democracy and accountability.

Moreover, the method being promoted by Labour and Plaid is actually prohibited under EU law, meaning that if they were to achieve their goal of rejoining, they would have to abandon it. It will require approximately 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat, making the system even less representative than the current Additional Member System (AMS). The only countries using a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, and Uruguay. 

If this increase to 96 seats were replicated at the Westminster level, it would mean over 2,000 MPs in Parliament. Wales is already more politically and civil servant-heavy than the other three Home Nations, and this change will only exacerbate that imbalance. It seems unbelievable.

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 25.0% (-0.3)
DUP: 19.0% (-0.2)

APNI: 11.0% (-1.6)
UUP: 13.0% (+1.0)
SDLP: 11.0% (+1.8)
TUV: 11.0% (+0.6)
Grn: 4.0% (-1.1)
AÚ: 2.0% (nc)
PBP-S: 1.0% (-1.6)
Oth: 3.0% (+1.4.4)

(Unionist 44.3%, Nationalist 44.3%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government.

Two opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 16.5% (-2.5)

FG: 18.0% (+1.0)

SF: 22.0% (-1.0)

SD:  8.5% (+0.5)

LP:  4.0% (-0.5)

AÚ:  4.5% (-1.0)

II:  5.0% (+0.5)

GP:  3.5% (+1.0)

PBP-S: 3.0% (+0.5) 

Oth: 15.0% (-+1.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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