OPINION POLLING FOR DECEMBER 2025

The usual December doldrums as the population and the political class focus on the Xmas festivities, and Parliament basically shuts down, goes on the piss around Westminster, then shuts up shop for the Xmas period.   Of note is that, for the second successive month, the Greens have outpolled the LDems, and for the first time in a long time, the Tories have nudged ahead of Labour, pushing them into third place with the Greens snapping at their heels. 

Labour embarked on a smear campaign against Reform, only to find it made little difference as Reform voters are resistant to anything Labour says, especially while Starmer remains leader.

The government found itself having to deal with doctors' strikes and increasing fury around plans to cancel some of the Mayoral and local elections this coming May, some for the second successive year, as local government civil servants say they are finding it challenging to implement the government's changes.

If things follow the 'norm', then during the first 2-3 months of 2026, you should see a slight upturn in Labour's performance, however times are not 'norm', and having a new kid on the block in the shape of Reform, along with a surging Green Party, is distorting things and creating a new normal.

Internationally, things remain much the same.

Throughout December, 22 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 29.2% (-0.8)

Con: 19.4% (+1.4)

Lab:  18.5% (-0.5)

Grn: 13.7% (nc) 
LDem: 12.6% (-0.1) 
Oth: 6.6% (-nc)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll in December, with leads of between 3-15% (median 9.5). Reform has now led in every poll bar 3 since mid-April, and even in those three, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 25-33% (median 30.0), Labour ranged  14-22% (median 19.5), the Tories between 17-22% (median 19.5), the Greens between 8-19% (median 13.0), and the LDems between 10-15% (median 12.5).

If a General Election were held on these DECEMBER figures it would result in a Reform majority government of around 90 with: Rfm366 (-23), L80 (+14), LD61 (nc), SNP47 (+2), C38 (+13), Grn20 (-5), PC6 (+nc), NI18, Oth13 (nc), Speaker1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

There was also one constituency MRP poll during the period, which gave figures of Rfm381, L85, Con70, LD35, Grn9, SNP40, PC5, NI18, Oth5, Speaker1 giving Reform a majority of around 100.

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for December 2025 (22 polls)
Rfm 29.2%, Lab 18.5%, Con 19.4%, Grn 13.7%, LDem 12.6%, Oth 6.6%

Rfm lead over Lab Dec: 10.7% (-0.3)
Rfm lead over Con Dec: 9.8% (-2.2)
Con lead over Lab Dec: 0.9% (+1.9)

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SCOTLAND

Two Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 32.5% (+0.7)
Rfm: 22.0% (+0.5)
Lab: 15.0% (-2.3)
Con: 10.5% (-0.5)

LDem: 8.0% (-1.3)
Grn: 10.5% (+4.7)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month. (Constituency/Regional) (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 34.5/29.0% (nc/+4.0)
Rfm: 19.5/19.0% (+0.5/+1.0)
Lab: 15.0/15.0% (-2.5/-1.0)
Con:  10.0/11.0% (+1.0/-0.5)
LDem:  9.0/8.0% (nc/-2.0)
Grn: 9.0/15.0% (+1.0/+2.0)
Oth: 3.0/3.0% (nc/-3.5)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month:-

Yes: 48.5%, No: 43.5%, DK: 8%

(Yes: 52.7%, No: 47.3%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

Con: 21.9/23.5%

Lab: 21.6/17.9%

LDem: 6.9/5.1%

Grn: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales slowly increase after Christmas, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There was one Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Rfm: 30.0% (+1.0)
PC: 19.0% (-5.0)
Lab: 15.0% (-5.0)

Grn: 14.0% (+7.0)
Con: 13.0% (nc)
LD:  8.0% (-1.0)

There were two Senedd opinion polls were released during the month. Figures displayed show Constituency First Preference voting, based on the new system (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

PC: 29.5% (+7.5)
Rfm: 28.5% (-1.5)
Lab:  15.5% (-7.5)
Con: 11.0% (nc)

Grn: 9.0% (nc)

LD:  4.5% (+0.5)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. The Senedd will be expanded from 60 to 96 seats. The new voting system will adopt a PR-based, closed-list party system centred on 16 'super-constituencies,' each with six seats. Voters will only be able to vote for a party rather than for individual candidates. A D'Hondt-type method will then be employed to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with parties then assigning individuals to the seats they win from lists that are not publicly disclosed. This means that party-appointed delegates will replace directly elected representatives, which undermines the principles of democracy and accountability.

Moreover, the method being promoted by Labour and Plaid is actually prohibited under EU law, meaning that if they were to achieve their goal of rejoining, they would have to abandon it. It will require approximately 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat, making the system even less representative than the current Additional Member System (AMS). The only countries using a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, and Uruguay. 

If this increase to 96 seats were replicated at the Westminster level, it would mean over 2,000 MPs in Parliament. Wales is already more politically and civil servant-heavy than the other three Home Nations, and this change will only exacerbate that imbalance. It seems unbelievable.

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 25.3% (+0.3)
DUP: 19.2% (+1.2)

APNI: 12.6% (+1.6)
UUP: 12.0% (nc)
SDLP: 9.2% (-1.8)
TUV: 10.4% (-2.6)
Grn: 5.1% (1.1)
AÚ: 2.0% (nc)
PBP-S: 2.6% (+0.6)
Oth: 1.6% (-0.4)

(Unionist 42%, Nationalist 44%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.

Two opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 19.0% (+1.0)

FG: 17.0% (nc)

SF: 23.0% (+1.0)

SD:  8.0% (nc)

LP:  4.5% (+0.5)

AÚ:  5.5% (-0.5)

II:  4.5% (+0.5)

GP:  2.5% (-0.5)

PBP-S: 2.5% (+0.5) 

Oth: 13.5% (-2.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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