OPINION POLLING FOR NOVEMBER 2025

November was marked domestically by Chancellor Rachel Reeves' controversial Budget Statement, which sparked significant political fallout, including the resignation of Richard Hughes, the OBR's Head. Labour MP Markus Campbell-Savours (Penrith) lost the party whip, and more similar actions may follow. Jezza's Your Party project held its inaugural conference, and following some internal disagreements, it was decided that the name would be 'Your Party'.

Notably, Zack Polanski's Greens have now surpassed the Liberal Democrats in national polling. Reform is currently stable but is expected to gain momentum again once boat crossings resume around mid-April. The Conservatives have seen a slight rise in support, likely due to Kemi Badenoch's strong performances in the Commons over the past two weeks, especially as Starmer, Reeves, and Lammy struggled at the Dispatch Box on key policy. Labour continues to face challenges, with public opinion essentially rejecting its messages and actions. (Early December polls indicate that Labour has dropped further in support, now trailing behind the Conservatives, while the Greens are closing in from behind).

On the international front, France and the Netherlands are in political turmoil, and Germany is experiencing its third consecutive year of recession—the most extended such period for any advanced economy since records began. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East have largely subsided, and a significant international effort is underway to bring peace to Ukraine.

Throughout November, 24 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 30.0% (-0.7)

Lab:  19.0% (-0.5)

Con: 18.0% (+0.3)
Grn: 13.7% (+1.7) 
LDem: 12.7% (-0.6) 
Oth: 6.6% (-0.2)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll in November, with leads of between 5-16% (median 10.0). Reform has now led in every poll bar 3 since mid-April, and even in those three, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 25-33% (median 30.5), Labour ranged  15-23% (median 19.0), the Tories between 16-20% (median 18.0), the Greens between 10-18% (median 12.5), and the LDems between 11-15% (median 13.0).

If a General Election were held on these NOVEMBER figures it would result in a Reform majority government of around 135 with: Rfm389 (+1), L66 (-21), LD61 (-1), SNP45 (+1), C25 (+6), Grn25 (+12), PC6 (+2), NI 18, Oth 14 (+1), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (250 polls)
Rfm 28.2%, Lab 22.6%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.4%, Grn 9.7%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for November 2025 (24 polls)
Rfm 30.0%, Lab 19.0%, Con 18.0%, Grn 13.7%, LDem 12.7%, Oth 6.6%

Rfm lead over Lab Oct: 11.0% (-0.2)
Rfm lead over Con Sep: 12.0% (-1.0)
Lab lead over Con Sep: 1.0% (-1.0)

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SCOTLAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SNP: 31.8%
Rfm: 21.5%
Lab: 17.3%
Con: 11.0%

LDem: 9.3%
Grn: 5.8%

There were no Holyrood polls released during the month. Figures are displayed as Constituency/Regional. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SNP: 34.5/25.0%
Rfm: 19.0/18.0%
Lab: 17.5/16.0%
Con:  9.0/11.5%
LDem:  9.0/10.0%
Grn: 8.0/13.0%
Oth: 3.0/6.5%

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Yes: 39.0%, No: 41%, DK: 20%

(Yes: 48.7%, No: 51.3%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

Con: 21.9/23.5%

Lab: 21.6/17.9%

LDem: 6.9/5.1%

Grn: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales slowly increase after Christmas, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Rfm: 29.0%
PC: 24.0%
Lab: : 20.0%
Con: 13.0%
LD:  9.0%

Grn: 0%

No Senedd opinion polls were released during the month. Figures displayed show Constituency First Preference voting, based on the new system (Figures in brackets show the last Senedd polling for reference):-

Rfm: 30.0%
Lab:  23.0%
PC: 22.0%
Con: 11.0%

LD:  4.0%
Grn: 9.0%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. The Senedd will be expanded from 60 to 96 seats. The new voting system will adopt a PR-based, closed-list party system centred on 16 'super-constituencies,' each with six seats. Voters will only be able to vote for a party rather than for individual candidates. A D'Hondt-type method will then be employed to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with parties then assigning individuals to the seats they win from lists that are not publicly disclosed. This means that party-appointed delegates will replace directly elected representatives, which undermines the principles of democracy and accountability.

Moreover, the method being promoted by Labour and Plaid is actually prohibited under EU law, meaning that if they were to achieve their goal of rejoining, they would have to abandon it. It will require approximately 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat, making the system even less representative than the current Additional Member System (AMS). The only countries using a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, and Uruguay. 

If this increase to 96 seats were replicated at the Westminster level, it would mean over 2,000 MPs in Parliament. Wales is already more politically and civil servant-heavy than the other three Home Nations, and this change will only exacerbate that imbalance. It seems unbelievable.

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

No Assembly polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 25.0%
DUP: 18.0%

APNI: 11.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 13.0%
Green: 4.0%
AÚ: 2.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 44%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.

One opinion poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 18.0% (nc)

FG: 17.0% (-2.3)

SF: 22.0% (-1.5)

SD:  8.0% (+0.2)

LP:  4.0% (-0.8)

AÚ:  6.0% (+1.2)

II:  4.0% (-nc)

GP:  3.0% (+0.5)

PBP-S: 2.0% (-0.8) 

Oth: 16.0% (+3.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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