OPINION POLLING FOR OCTOBER 2025

Yet another chaotic month at the heart of government, this time dominated by the lack of letting licence by the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who rents her family home to her sister, fellow Labour MP Ellie Reeves.   Small Boat illegals continue to haunt the government as the the French lack of will to do anything about it despite us paying them huge sums of money continues.  Former-Prince Andrew fell further from grace,  the China Spygate scandal rolled on, as did the momentum to stop the handover of the Chagos Islands to the Chinese via their client state Mauritius. 

Wider afield Federal Shutdown commenced as the Democrats continue to refuse to pass the Republican budget.   The ceasefire in Gaza got underway and bar a few hiccups appears to be holding relatively well.  The great and the good prepared to waste huge amounts of carbon and time achieving little at COP30 and the preceeding '30 Cities' in Rio do Janeiro.

The Dutch held yet another General Election, which will be the subject of a post once they sort their lives out and cobble together another doomed-to-fail coalition government.

France remains a political shambles.

Across OCTOBER there were 22 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm 30.7% (+0.1)

Lab  19.5% (-1.5)

Con 17.7% (+0.4)
LDem 13.3% (-0.1) 
Grn 12.0% (+2.1) 

Oth: 6.8% (-1.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll in October, with leads of between 6-16%.  Reform have now led in every poll bar 3 since mid-April, and in those three they were joint-top.  Reform ranged between 26-35% (median 31.0), Labour ranged  15-22% (median 20.0), the Tories between 14-20% (median 18.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 13.0), and the Greens between 8-17% (median 11.0). 

If a General Election were held on these OCTOBER figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 87 (-24),  C 18 (-12), LD 62 (nc), Rfm 389 (+9), SNP 45 (+1), Grn 13 (+7), PC 4 (-1), NI 18, Oth 13 (+11), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a working majority of around 120. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (229 polls)
Rfm 28.0%, Lab 23.0%, Con 19.9%, LDem 13.5%, Grn 9.3%, Oth 6.3%

Polling figures for October 2025 (22 polls)
Rfm 30.7%, Lab 19.5%, Con 17.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 12.0%, Oth 6.8%

Rfm lead over Lab Oct: 11.2% (+1.6)
Rfm lead over Con Sep: 13.0% (-0.3)
Lab lead over Con Sep: 1.8% (-1.9)

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SCOTLAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference):-

SNP: 31.8%
Rfm: 21.5%
SLab. 17.3%
SCon: 11.0%

SLD: 9.3%
SGP: 5.8%

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

SNP: 34.5/25.0% (-0.8/-4.3)
Rfm: 19.0/18.0% (+0.7/+1.5)
SLab: 17.5/16.0% (+0.5/-0.8)
SCon: 9.0/11.5% (-1.8/-0.8)
SLD: 9.0/10.0% (-1.3/-1.0)
SGP: 8.0/13.0% (+1.2/+3.2)
Oth: 3.0/6.5% (+1.5/+2.7)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month.

Yes: 46.0%, No: 42.5%, DK: 10.5%

(Yes: 52.0%, No: 48.0%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 29.0% (+4.5)
PC: 24.0% (+2.0)
Lab: 20.0% (-6.5)
Con: 13.0% (-3.0)
LDem: 9.0% (+1.5)

Grn: 6.0% (+0.5)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

PC 22.0% (-8.0)
Rfm 30.0% (+1.0)
Lab 23.0% (+11.0)
Con 11.0% (-0.5)

LDem 4.0% (-2.0)
Grn: 9.0% (+3.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

Caerphilly Senedd by-Election - Result

There was a Senedd by-Election in the Constituency of Caerphilly following the death of Labour's Hefin David.   The Senedd Constituency boundary largely mirrors the Westminster boundary and Labour has held the Senedd seat since inception and the Westminster seat since time immemorial.   Plaid Cymru took the seat ahead of Reform, following a last minute surge in strategic voting, which accounts for Labour's abysmal result.   This by election also saw the highest turn-out at Senedd by-Election level ever recorded anywhere in Wales. (Figures in brackets show movement since the 2021 Senedd Election).

Plaid: 47.4% (+19.0)
Ref: 36.0% (+34.3)
Lab: 11.0% (-35.0)
Con:  2.0% (-15.3)
LDem: 1.5% (-1.2)
Gwlad: 0.3% (na)
UKIP: 0.2% (na)
Turn-Out: 50.4% (+3.8)


(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 25.0% (-1.0)
DUP: 18.0% (-1.0)

APNI: 11.0% (-2.0
UUP: 12.0% (nc)
SDLP: 11.0% (nc)
TUV: 13.0% (nc)
Green: 4.0% (+1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (nc)
PBP-S: 2.0% (nc)
Oth: 2.0% (+1.0)

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 44%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also shares a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

A far-Left candidate - Catherine Connolly, a barrister and psychologist, won the Presidency of Ireland after Sinn Fein, Labour, the Social Democrats & Fianna Fail withdrew and endorsed her on the proviso she dropped her anti-EU position.  Connolly started her political career in 1994 as a councillor in Galway, representing the Irish Labour Party, quitting them in 2006.  She is anti-Nato, describing their position toward Russia as blatant warmongering, was - until the Presidential campaign, anti-EU, calls Israel a genocidal state, is pro-open borders and supports just about ever other left wing cause you care to name.  (She would make an ideal student, teacher or civil servant in the UK).

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.

There were 4 opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 18.0% (-2.0)

FG: 19.3% (-0.7)

SF: 23.5% (+3.0)

SD:  7.8% (+0.8)

LP:  4.8% (+0.8)

AÚ:  4.8% (+1.3)

II:  4.0% (-1.0)

GP:  2.5% (nc)

PBP-S: 2.8% (-0.7) 

Oth: 12.5% (-1.5) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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