OPINION POLLING FOR SEPTEMBER 2025

 

Well what a monumental month that was.  Sackings, reshuffles, scandals and more.  Domestically, Labour slumped to new lows in the polls,  Deputy PM Angela Rayner had to resign and Lord Mandelson - the Ambassador to the US also resigned.  The Donald had his second State Visit, becoming the first US President to achieve that honour.   He also becomes the first US president to have been received by two separate British Monarchs.  Starmer's government also succumbed to the fashion of the day and recognised Palestine.  The 'dinghy crisis' continued unabated, and we deported 7 of this years crop of over 30,000, importing 6 from the generous French. New runways for airports were announced.   Andy Burnham appeared to trial his new Downing St Prime Minister policy - one out, one in, but after dipping a toe decided it wasn't for him.  The disgraceful trial of 'Soldier F' resumed.

Party conference season got underway, with Reform being 'bullish', Labour spending theirs attacking Reform while unveiling plans near-identical to Reform's whilst hoping for a 'bounce' but initial early post-conference polling suggests they have fallen further with the public rejecting their anti-Reform rhetoric, Digital-ID plans and Keir Starmer himself, and it is clear that the Labour Party is very publicly and very deeply split over fundemental issues and core policies. The Lib Dems giving everyone lego and the rest weren't worth bothering about or will happen in October. 

Overseas, the wars continue, but serious moves are being made to bring an end to Gaza, but it will rest on HAMAS complying, which they almost certainly won't.

Across SEPTEMBER there were 28 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm 30.6% (nc)

Lab  21.0% (-0.1)

Con 17.3% (-0.5)
LDem 13.4% (-0.2) 
Grn 9.9% (+1.3) 

Oth: 7.8% (+0.5)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Again, the polls show summer doldrums.  Reform led in every single poll in September, with leads of between 3-15%.   Reform ranged between 27-34% (median 30.5), Labour ranged  16-25% (median 21.0), the Tories between 14-20% (median 17.0), the LDems between 10-16% (median 13.5), and the Greens between 7-13% (median 10.0). 

If a General Election were held on these SEPTEMBER figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 101 (-9),  C 30  (-5), LD 62 (-1), Rfm 380 (+13), SNP 44 (+8), Grn 6 (+2), PC 5 (nc), NI 18, Oth 3 (nc), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a working majority of around 118. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (204 polls)
Rfm 27.7%, Lab 23.4%, Con 20.1%, LDem 13.5%, Grn 9.0%, Oth 6.3%

Polling figures for September 2025 (25 polls)
Rfm 30.6%, Lab 21.0%, Con 17.3%, LDem 13.4%, Grn 9.9%, Oth 7.8%

Rfm lead over Lab Sep: 9.6% (+0.1%)
Rfm lead over Con Sep: 13.3% (+0.5)
Lab lead over Con Sep: 3.7% (+0.4)


OTHER POLLING

There were three MRP polls released during the month. Multi-Regression Polling is far larger, far more complex method, usually involving far far larger sample-set, fine-tuned to more accurately reflect demographics and population dispersal, across every constituency.   Averaged, they revealed a parliament of:-

Reform: 326 seats
Labour: 142 seats
LDem: 70 seats
Tory: 43 seats
SNP: 34 seats
Green: 6 seats
Plaid: 5 seats
Other: 5
NI: 18
Speaker: 1

This would give Reform a working majority of around 20, as Sinn Fein will not take their seats and the DUP and TUV will work with them

Jeremy Corbyn's new yet-to-start endeavour will launch sometime in November, with peace now broken out between Corbyn and co-leader Zara Sultana. There was one poll released during the month that included his party (Figures in brackets show movement from the last month):-

Rfm: 34.0% (+4.5)

Lab:  20.0% (-1.3)

Con: 16.0% (-2.5)
LDem: 13.0% (+1.5)
JC: 6.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 7.0% (nc)

Oth: 4.0% (-1.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote

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SCOTLAND

About the only thing of note was the election of Gillian Mackay & Ross Green as the co-leaders of the Scottish Green Party.

There were four Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

SNP: 31.8% (+0.8)
Rfm: 21.5% (+0.5)
SLab. 17.3% (+0.3)
SCon: 11.0% (nc)

SLD: 9.3% (-1.7)
SGP: 5.8% (-0.2)

There were four Holyrood polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

SNP: 35.3/29.3% (-1.7/-2.7)
Rfm: 18.3/16.5% (+2.3/+0.3)
SLab: 17.0/16.8% (nc/+0.8)
SCon: 10.8/12.3% (-1.2/+0.3)
SLD: 10.3/11.0% (-1.7/-3.0)
SGP: 6.8/9.8% (+1.8/+1.8)
Oth: 1.5/4.3% (+0.5/+2.3)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month.

Yes: 49.0%, No: 44.5%, DK: 6.5%

(Yes: 52.4%, No: 47.6%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 29.0% (+4.5)
PC: 24.0% (+2.0)
Lab: 20.0% (-6.5)
Con: 13.0% (-3.0)
LDem: 9.0% (+1.5)

Grn: 6.0% (+0.5)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference):-

PC 30.0% (+6.5)
Rfm 29.0% (+2.5)
Lab 14.0% (-11.0)
Con 11.0% (-0.5)

LDem 6.0% (nc)
Grn: 6.0% (+1.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 13.0%
Green: 3.0%
AÚ: 2.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: <.1.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 44%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also shares a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.  Conor McGregor announced he will definitely run as an independent candidate in the next Irish Presidential elections, immediately becoming the bookies' favourite to win.

There was one opinion poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 20.0% (-2.0)

FG: 20.0% (-1.0)

SF: 20.5% (+0.5)

SD:  7.0% (nc)

LP:  4.0% (-0.5)

AÚ:  3.5% (-0.5)

II:  5.0% (+1.0)

GP:  2.5% (+0.5)

PBP-S: 3.5% (+0.5) 

Oth: 14.0% (+1.0) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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