OPINION POLLING FOR MAY 2025

 

The wars in Gaza and Ukraine continue.  The India-Pakistan conflict in Kashmir appears to be over (for now) 

At home, the government limped on in slow meltdown as Starmer continually undermined his own Chancellor, announcing changes to spending plans without discussing them with her and even while she wasn't even in the country.  Deals were announced with the EU and India - both near immediately condemned, even by Starmer's own backbenchers, let alone fishermen and farmers. Chagos was signed, but has still to come into effect, facing challenge after challenge.  Dinghies continue to swarm across the channel in ever-increasing numbers, with not one gang yet tickled let alone smashed. Reform took the previously safe Labour seat of Helsby and Labour and the Tories also had a torrid time at the hands of Reform in the English local elections.

In what was one of the most bizarre things in UK politics for many a year, Starmer spent an entire speech at a factory in Warrington attacking Farage and was mocked even by the normally Labour-supporting elements of the press, with the BBC remarking that "he's finished".

Across MAY there were 23 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 29.8% (+4.6)

Lab  22.8% (-0.6)

Con 18.1% (-3.9)
LDem 14.3% (+0.4) 
Grn 9.2% (+0.2) 

Oth: 5.8% (-0.5)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform has now steamed ahead in the national polls and has opened up a considerable lead over the rest of the pack, leading in all bar one of the polls, which was right at the start of the month, in which they were tied with Labour.   Labour ranged between 20-26% (median 22.0), Reform between 26-33% (median 30.0), the Tories between 16-22% (median 18.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 7-11% (median 9.0).  Of the 23 polls Reform led in 22, with one being tied between them and Labour.

If a General Election were held on these MAY figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 143 (-43),  C 25 (-72), LD 62 (+3), Rfm 352 (+105), SNP 38 (+8), PC 4 (nc), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 3 (+2), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform holding a majority of around 60 (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

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Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for 2025  (111 polls)
Rfm 25.9%, Lab 24.5%, Con 22.0%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 8.8%, Oth 5.4%

Polling figures for May 2025 (23 polls)
Rfm 29.8%, Lab 22.8%, Con 18.1%, LDem 14.3%, Grn 9.2%, Oth 5.8%

Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 7.0%
Rfm lead over Con Apr: 11.7%
Lab lead over Con Apr: 4.7%

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SCOTLAND

All eyes are on the Scottish Parliament By-Election due to take place on 05 June, for the constituency seat of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.   This was a safe SNP seat, vacated on the unfortunate death of the SNP's Christina McKelvie MSP, from aggressive breast cancer at just 57 years of age.  Labour had visions of pushing hard for this seat, hoping to exploit post-Sturgeon disarray within the SNP. However, it's not quite working out like that.  The Labour vote has collapsed because of the antics of Starmer & co in Westminster, and the SNP is also struggling.   Polling shows this to be a neck-and-neck between Reform and the SNP, but I suspect the SNP's battle experience at getting the vote out on the day will see them narrowly hold the seat.  Reform is unlikely to win in my opinion, but how close to the SNP they finish and how poorly Labour do in a key target seat will be major indicators as to the 2027 Scottish elections.  Should Reform win it, bearing in mind it's Scotland, it will actually be a massive blow to Labour most of all, bigger even than Helsby.  Just a month ago, just after the election was called, Labour were 10/11 favourites to win the seat. The SNP were second on 11/10 and Reform were given odds of 8/1.  Here we are, days before polling, and Reform are now joint-favourites with the SNP at 11/10-on,  with Labour dropping right back to 10/1.  Current polling has it (Figures in brackets show movement from 2021):-

SNP: 24% (-22%)
Rfm: 24%  (+24%)
SLab: 16% (-18%)
SCon: 16% (-2%)
SLD: 10% (+7%)
SGP: 4% (+4%)

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 32.0% (-1.0)
Rfm: 21.0% (+6.0)
Lab: 19.0% (-5.0)
Con: 11.0% (-3.0)

LDem:11.0% (+2.0)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.0/26.5% (-2.5/-2.5)

SLab: 19.0/18.5% (+1.0/-1.5)
Rfm: 18.5/11.0% (+5.0/-5.0)
SCon: 12.0/15.5% (-0.5/+2.5)

SLD: 9.5/10.5% (-1.0/+1.5)

SGP: 6.0/12.0% (+1.0/+4)
Oth: 2.0/5.0% (-1.5/+1.5)

There was just one IndyRef poll released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (-5.0), No: 46.0% (+2.5), DK: 11.0% (+2.5)

(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. Of note is Labour's continuing month-on-month decline.  This has been a trend now for the past year.  Wales is - or rather was - a guaranteed Labour stronghold; however, just as they have at Westminster-level, they have now been overtaken by both Plaid Cymru and Reform. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling).

Rfm 24.0% (-1.0)
PC: 24.0% (+6.0)
Lab: 20.0% (-9.0)
Con: 13.0% (-2.0)
LDem: 9.0% (+3.0)

Grn: 6.0% (nc)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month.  Again, note the continued growth in Plaid & Reform, and the continued decline of Labour.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Plaid 30.0% (+6.0)
Rfm 25.0% (+1.5)
Lab 18.0% (-11.0)

Con 13.0% (-2.5)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)
LDem 7.0% (+2.5)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0% (-2.0)
DUP: 19.0% (-1.0)

APNI: 13.0% (-1.0)
UUP: 12.0% (+1.0)
SDLP: 11.0% (nc)
TUV: 12.0% (+1.0)
Green: 3.0% (+1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0) 
PBP-S: 1.0% (nc)
Oth: 2.0% (-1.0%)

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum are already causing the new government considerable problems and the growth of Irish populism as a result is quite spectacular, with MMA fighter and working-class hero Connor McGregor announcing he will run as a Presidential candidate at the next Presidential Election and despite being condemned by every politician in the Dail, immediately moved into the favourite position in both the polls and the betting.

There were three opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 21.3% (nc)

FG: 20.0% (+1.0)

SF: 21.3% (-2.4)

SD:  8.0% (+0.7)

LP:  4.7% (+1.0)

AÚ:  4.3% (+1.0)

II:  4.7% (+0.2)

GP:  2.0% (-0.7)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 10.7% (-0.8) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)


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