OPINION POLLING FOR JUNE 2025

 

Well, what a splendiferous month that turned out to be.  Internationally, the month was dominated by the 12-day War between Israel and Iran, culminating in the US Air Force intervening and giving Iran a long overdue slap.  Really, the US had little choice.  Israel was determined to knock Iran's nuclear ambitions and would have gone nuclear if they had to, to get at the three main centrifuge sites, leaving the US with little option other than to bomb Iran in order to stop Israel nuking them.   The Donald went from strength to strength in the US domestic scene, winning a massive key Ruling in the US Supreme Court which effectively stops states from constantly interfering in his Presidential Orders.  His 'Big, Beautifi Bill' took a step closer to becoming law.

Domestically, Starmer lurches from U-Turn to U-Turn,  managing to carry out two in the last four weeks alone,  one U-Turn effectively reducing his key flagship benefits reforms to little more than tinkering at the edges.  Key pledges are being abandoned across the board and the vast number of self-imposed targets are failing to be met.  Starmer is to increase the defence budget, but we quickly learnt that was not by giving it more money, but by including what is termed critical infrastructure (such as electric pylons, bridges) and including their budget in the overall defence spend.  There will not be a single extra man or woman in uniform, but it will increase the submarine fleet by 5 submarines over the next 10 years.  We are going to give every fat person injections to make them thin, but that really only works provided they keep taking the injections, because no parallel strategy has been brought in to change their behaviour.

Right as we went to press, the Chancellor, Rachel-From-Accounts, burst into tears and Jezza announced he would be forming a new political party.   Chancellors come and go and are disposable and replaceable items, but the threatened emergence of Jezza as an organised political force is a death knell for Labour.  He will take 10% of the vote virtually straight away, mostly from Labour, reducing them to around 15% in the polls.  But it is worse than that for Labour.  Jezza's support is mostly in the big urban conhurbations - London, Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham etc, especially areas with high immigrant or Muslim populations, meaning it's disproportionate support and he is supported far more in what is Labour's backyard than e4lsewhere, whilst at the same time Reform is starting to now squeeze Labour in the suburbs. To show the 'draw' of Jezza in urban areas,  he is so heavily supported in his own seat of Islington North, that in a council election in Islington, he would win every single council seat bar one.

Palestinian Action became the first mainstream pro-Palestine protest group to be elevated to the status of 'proscribed' after their infiltration of RAF Brize Norton and the £5m of damage they caused to operational aircraft.  And as for what happened at Glastonbury......

Summer arrived!

Across JUNE there were 26 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 29.0% (-0.8)

Lab  23.3% (+0.5)

Con 18.1% (nc)
LDem 13.8% (-0.5) 
Grn 9.4% (+0.2) 

Oth: 6.4% (+0.6)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The fact that there is so little movement despite many events going on politically, suggests that the parties are by-and-large now at their natural levels and will remain roughly in this area until the end of summer.  Reform led in every single poll in June, with leads of between 2 & 11%   Labour ranged between 21-27% (median 23.0), Reform between 26-34% (median 29.0), the Tories between 15-22% (median 18.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 7-13% (median 9.0).  Of the 26 polls Reform led in every single one of them.  We are now 2 months i to Starmer's government.  The period of the first 12-18 months is the 'golden honeymoon' where new governments are supposed to go up in the polls and conquer all before them.  At this period in BoJo's government, he was polling over 50% and had won 2 by-elections.  For Starmer, it is now downhill all the way.

If a General Election were held on these JUNE figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 155 (+11),  C 42  (+17), LD 67 (+5), Rfm 319 (-33), SNP 34 (-4), PC 4 (nc), Grn 5 (+1), NI 18, Oth 5 (+2), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a slim working majority. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

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Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (137 polls)
Rfm 26.4%, Lab 24.3%, Con 21.4%, LDem 13.4%, Grn 8.9%, Oth 5.6%

Polling figures for June 2025 (26 polls)
Rfm 29.0%, Lab 23.3%, Con 18.1%, LDem 13.8%, Grn 9.4%, Oth 6.4%

Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 5.7%
Rfm lead over Con Apr: 10.9%
Lab lead over Con Apr: 5.2%


OTHER POLLING

Three major MRP polls were carried out over the period.  Averaged, they would produce a Parliament of Rfm 276, Lab 154, Con 80, LDem 72, SNP 33, NI 18, Grn 5, PC 5, Oth 6, Speaker 1.  MRP polls are highly complex affairs that usually involve samples in the tens of thousands across every constituency in the country.  (I have found from experience that usually the truth lies somewhere between the average of a clutch of MRP polls and the average of ordinary polls done over the same period.  In this case, for June that would put Reform at around 297 seats, Labour around 155 and the Tories around 61).

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SCOTLAND

There were two Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 31.0% (-1.0)
SLab. 21.0% (+2.0)
Rfm: 18.5% (-2.5)
SCon: 11.0% (nc)

SLD: 8.5% (-2.5)
SGP: 8.5% (+3.5)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.5/27.0% (+0.5/+0.5)

SLab: 21.0/20.0% (+2.0/+1.5)
Rfm: 16.0/16.0% (-2.5/+5.0)
SCon: 11.5/12.5% (+0.5/-3.0)

SLD: 8.5/9.0% (-1.0/-1.5)

SGP: 8.0/12.0% (+2.0/nc)
Oth: 1.5/5.0% (-0.5/+1.5)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 48.0% (+5.0), No: 43.0% (-2.0), DK: 9.0% (-2.0)

(Yes: 52.7%, No: 47.3%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

Starmer made a brief foray to Venue Cymru in Llandudno to address the party faithful and had to be smuggled out of the building as it was besieged by irate PIP claimants, farmers and several other hostile groups.  

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 24.0%
PC: 24.0%
Lab: 20.0%
Con: 13.0%
LDem: 9.0%

Grn: 6.0%

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month.  Again, note the continued dominance by Plaid & Reform, and the decline of Labour.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Rfm 29.0% (+2.0)

PC 27.0% (-3.0)
Lab 18.0% (nc)

Con 11.0% (-2.0)
Grn: 7.0% (nc)
LDem 7.0% (nc)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method is used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 12.0%
Green: 3.0%
AÚ: 2.0% 
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.  What is also starting to cause problems in Irish politics is Ireland's neutral stance clashing with the EU's slowly increasing militarism.

There were two opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 20.0% (-1.3)

FG: 19.5% (+0.5)

SF: 20.5% (-0.8)

SD:  8.0% (nc)

LP:  4.5% (-0.2)

AÚ:  5.0% (+0.7)

II:  5.0% (+0.3)

GP:  2.0% (nc)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 12.5% (+1.8) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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