OPINION POLLING FOR SEPTEMBER 2024

As we near 100 days since Starmer's Labour swept to power in the General Election, his government finds itself mired in controversy and in-fighting, with many Ministers complaining that government is harder than they imagined.    Virtually all of the few Labour election pledges have now been significantly watered down or in some cases scrapped altogether.

The wars in both Ukraine and Israel rumble on with no apparent end in sight for either of them.

Across September there were 4 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from the General Election):-

Con 23.5% (+0.7)
Lab  31.0% (-2.2) 
LDem 13.3% (+1.9) 
Grn 7.5% (-1.3) 

Rfm 18.0% (-0.4)

Oth 6.7% (+0.3)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 21-26% (median 23.5), Labour between 29-32% (median 30.5), Reform static at 18% in all polls (median 18.0), the LDems between 13-14% (median 13.5), and the Greens between 7-8% (median 7.5%). Labour led in every poll with leads of between 4-12% (median 8%).   

If a General Election were held on these September figures it would result in a Parliament of:-  L378 (-32), C141 (+24), LD73 (+1), Rfm10 (nc), SNP14 (+5), PC4 (nc), Grn4 (nc), NI18, Oth7 (+2), Speaker 1(figures in brackets movement from last month) with Labour having a majority of 106   (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 112 or so). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (284 polls)

Lab 39.7%, Con 24.0%, Rfm 13.3%, LDem 10.8%, Grn 6.2%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 15.71%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for Sept (4 polls)
Lab 31.0%, Con 23.5%, Rfm 18.0%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 7.5%, Oth 6.7%

Lab lead over Con Aug: 7.5%%)

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SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There were 2 Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Lab: 32.0% (-3.3)
SNP: 29.0% (-1.0)

Con: 12.0% (-0.7)
LDem: 8.0% (-1.7)
Rfm: 12.0% (+5.0)

Grn: 5.0% (+1.2)

Oth: 2.0% (+0.4)

Two Holyrood polls were released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 31.5/29.0% (-1.5/+1.0)

SCon: 12.5/13.0% (+0.5/-1.0)

SLab: 28.0/25.5% (-2.0/-2.5)

SLD: 8.0/9.0% (nc/+2.0)

SGP: 6.5/9.0% (+1.5/+1.0)

Oth: 13.5/14.5% (+1.5/-0.5)

Four IndyRef polls were released during the month. (figures show last polling):-

Yes: 42.0% (-1.0), No: 47.8% (+0.8), DK: 10.2% (+0.2)

(Yes: 46.8%, No: 53.2%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. July's polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures show last polling):-

Lab 37.0/34.5% (-6.0/+3.5)
Con 22.5/18.5% (+1.5/-0.5)
Plaid 18.5/19.0% (-1.5/-3.0)
LDem 5.5/9.0% (-0.5/-1.0)
Grn: 5.0/6.0% (+2.0/nc)
Rfm 5.5/5.5% (-3.5/-4.5)
AWA  1.0/5.5% (-0.6/+0.5)  
UKIP -/1.0%  (nc/+1.0)

Oth 5.0/6.0% (+1.0/+1.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures show last polling):-

Yes: 27% (-3.0),  No: 61% (+2.0), DK: 12% (+1.0)

(Yes: 30.7%, No: 69.3%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There were no Assembly opinion polls released during the month. August's polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures show previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0% (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)

(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleaguered at the moment with asylum seekers  (and the collapse of Sinn Fein - who adopted a pro-asylum seeker stance, has been noticeable where just months ago they were cruising at nearly 30%), the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches.  Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.  However, rapidly growing on the horizon is a conglomerate of anti-immigration independents including Irish MMA and pro-boxer, Conor Mcgregor, who is threatening to stand as a candidate for Mayor of Dublin (and will almost certainly win).  Should they manage to form a populist-nationalist party of their own,  they will be capable of mounting a significant threat to all parties across the entire Republic.

There was one poll released since I last reported. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SF: 19.0% (-4.3)

FF: 19.0% (+1.5)

FG: 26.0% (+3.3)

GP: 4.0% (-0.3)

LP: 5.0% (+1.4)

SD: 6.0% (+1.1)

PBP-S: 2.0% (-0.4) 

AÚ: 4.0% (+0.8)

Oth/Ind: 15.0% (-4.1)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

Germany is undergoing a significant shift to the Right and to what could be termed as 'populist' forms of it.   Indeed,  the Left-wing Coalition of Olaf Schulz's SPD, the Greens and FDP have just announced the opening stages of sending Afghans & Syrians back to their home countries (having just sent the first batch back, without an agreement with the Taleban), and Germany has also held preliminary 'sounding' talks with Rwanda and denying illegal immigrants access to benefits - something unheard of 6 months ago.

AfD - 18.1% (+0.6)

CDU/CSU - 32.2% (+1.0)
FW - 2.0% (+0.5)

FDP - 4.0% (-0.9)

Grune - 10.8% (-0.5)

SPD - 15.0% (-0.3)

Die Linke - 2.9% (-0.1)
BSW - 8.5% (-5.1)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories with a sprinkling of ReformUK, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist nationalists'  or even 'national socialist')

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THE USA

The US elections are literally a month away.  The USA operates a complicated Electoral College system at the Presidential level,  consisting of 538 votes calculated in a state-by-state process, so winning the popular vote across the country as a whole does not necessarily mean you will win the Presidential Election.  It depends on which states you win and the actual result is usually dictated by around 50,000 voters spread across 7 swing states.

At the moment,  half the states have each candidate polling within 2% of the other, which is inside pollsters' margin of error, meaning the election is on a knife edge literally and is probably going to be the closest election in decades.

As it stands, Kamala Harris (D) will win the popular vote however Donald Trump (R) will win the Electoral College and thus take the Presidency.  On current averages, Trump is looking at winning by 325-213.   States to monitor at this stage are North Carolina and Pennsylvania.   In order to win the Presidency, Trump must win North Carolina.  Similarly, Harris must win Pennsylvania.  Currently, each is leading in the other's state.

The Republicans are on course to win the Senate (their equivalent of our House of Commons).