OPINION POLLING FOR OCTOBER 2024

 

A month that saw Rachel Reeves 'Halloween' Budget statement.   A Statement that united the country.  In hating her.

The wars in both Ukraine and Israel rumble on with no apparent end in sight for either of them although the outcome of the US Presidential Election will have a significant impact in both.

Across October there were 14 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from the General Election):-

Con 25.1% (+1.6)
Lab  29.3% (-1.7) 
LDem 12.6% (-0.7) 
Grn 7.5% (nc) 

Rfm 19.1% (+1.1)

Oth 6.4% (-0.3)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 23-29% (median 26), Labour between 27-31% (median 29), Reform between 18-21% (median 19.5), the LDems between 10-14% (median 12), and the Greens between 7-10% (median 8.5%). Labour led in all bar one poll (BMG 30-31 Oct) by between minus 1 to 7% (median 3%).   

If a General Election were held on these October figures it would result in a Parliament of:-  L344 (-34), C165 (+24), LD72 (-1), Rfm10 (nc), SNP22 (+8), PC4 (nc), Grn4 (nc), NI18, Oth10 (+3), Speaker 1(figures in brackets movement from last month) with Labour having a majority of 38  (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 50 or so). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (298 polls)

Lab 38.7%, Con 24.1%, Rfm 13.9%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 6.3%, Oth 6.1%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 14.56%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for Oct (14 polls)
Lab 29.3%, Con 25.1%, Rfm 19.1%, LDem 12.6%, Grn 7.5%, Oth 6.4%

Lab lead over Con Aug: 4.2%)

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SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There was 1 Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Lab: 23.0%% (-9.0)
SNP: 30.0% (+1.0)

Con: 15.0% (+3.0)
LDem: 10.0 % (+2.0)
Rfm: 14.0% (+2.0)

Grn: 6.0% (+1.0)

Oth: 2.0% (nc)

One Holyrood poll was released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.0/29.0% (+1.5/nc)

SCon: 15.0/14.0% (+2.5/+1.0)

SLab: 23.0/22.0% (-5.0/-3.5)

SLD: 10.0/9.0% (+2.0/nc)

SGP: 6.0/9.0% (+1.5/nc)
Rfm: 11.0/11.0% (+2.0/+1.0)

Oth: 2.0/6.0% (-11.5/-8.5)

One IndyRef poll was released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 47.0% (+5.0), No: 47.0% (-0.8), DK: 6.0% (-4.2)

(Yes: 50.0%, No: 50.0%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. 

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There were no Assembly opinion polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleaguered at the moment with asylum seekers  (and the collapse of Sinn Fein - who adopted a pro-asylum seeker stance, has been noticeable where just months ago they were cruising at nearly 30%), the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches.  Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.

Interestingly, for several months now, Sinn Fein - who were the largest party in the Republic, have been languishing in third place, in the main because a significant chunk of their vote came from the traditional Irish working class in Dublin and other urban centres - the very same people who are demonstrating about the immigrants, whereas Sinn fein oppose the hostility and demonstrations.

There were four polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SF: 17.5% (-1.5)

FF: 19.8% (+0.8)

FG: 24.5% (-1.5)

GP: 3.8% (-0.2)

LP: 4.5% (-0.5)

SD: 5.5% (-0.5)

PBP-S: 2.5% (+0.5) 

AÚ: 3.0% (-1.0)

Oth/Ind: 18.9% (+4.9)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

Germany is undergoing a significant shift to the Right and to what could be termed as 'populist' forms of it.   Indeed, to try and counter this, the Left-wing Coalition of Olaf Schulz's SPD, the Greens and FDP announced the opening stages of sending Afghans & Syrians back to their home countries (having just sent the first batch back, without an agreement with the Taleban), and Germany has also held preliminary 'sounding' talks with Rwanda and denying illegal immigrants access to benefits - something unheard of 6 months ago.

AfD - 17.9% (-0.2)

CDU/CSU - 31.6% (-0.6)
FW - 2.3% (+0.3)

FDP - 3.8% (-0.2)

Grune - 10.7% (-0.1)

SPD - 15.9% (+0.9)

Die Linke - 3.0% (+0.1)
BSW - 8.0% (-0.5)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories with a sprinkling of ReformUK, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist nationalists'  or even 'national socialist').  In essence Afd & BSW are both populist with AfD being of the Right and BSW being of the left.)

NEWSFLASH

1.  As I predicted three months ago on this site, the final run-off for the Conservative Party leadership was between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick and the result was I predicted - Jenrick being supported by the majority of MPs, but Badenoch winning the actual membership vote.

2.  Donald Trump has won the US Presidential Election for the Republican Party.  Republicans also won control of both Houses of Congress and also won the popular vote.

3.  The Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party Coalition Government in the Republic of Ireland has collapsed and the country will hold an emergency General Election on Nov 29th.  Immigration and economic difficulties will be the main issues.

4. The SPD, FPD and Green Party Coalition Government in Germany has collapsed.  A Confidence vote will be held in January 2025 and the country will then move to a General Election pencilled in for March 2025.  Again, immigration and economic difficulties will be the main issues.

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