OPINION POLLING FOR AUGUST 2024

 

Keir Starmer and his Labour Party's first full month in power since winning the election on 04 July and going through the handover process.   He took office on a remarkably low vote share of an equally remarkably low voter turn-out and has managed to go down hill from there.  Ordinarily, going back many general Elections, a new regime usually has a 'honeymoon period' where their support-share increases quite significantly, however in the new government's case Labour has flat-lined at best and Starmer personally has dived faster than the Titanic - mind you labelling everyone who opposes him over illegal immigration as far-Right, releasing violent and sexual offenders even earlier and robbing pensioners probably didn't help.   In addition, despite he and his Cabinet repeating the mantra of 'it's the tories fault', 'black hole' etc etc, the public does not believe either him or his party over either allegation and the more they repeat it, the more the disbelief grows.   Opposite, in the Tory camp, navel-gazing continues as they prepare for their leadership election.   I shall stick my neck out and say that the final two put before the membership will be Robert Jenrick & Kemi Badenoch, with Jenrick having the bulk of the MPs and Association Chair votes but the membership will go for Kemi Badenoch yet again placing the membership and the MPs at odds with each other.   Starting to take form on the far-Left is the embryonic stages of a new left-wing party with 5 of the independent MPs coming together to form an 'alliance' under old crusty himself - Jezza.  Should the war in the middle east still be on-going next May for the next council elections, this could present a major difficulty for Starmer.

Across August there were 5 Westminster polls  released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from the General Election):-

Con 22.8% (-0.9)
Lab  33.2% (-0.5) 
LDem 11.4% (-0.8) 
Grn 7.8% (+1.0) 

Rfm 18.4% (+4.1)

Oth 6.4% (-2.9)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 22-26% (median 24.0), Labour between 30-36% (median 33.0), Reform between 17-19% (median 18.0) and the LDems between 11-12% (median 11.5).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 4-14% (median 9%).   

If a General Election were held on these August figures it would result in a Parliament of:-  L410 (-2), C117 (-4), LD72 (nc), Rfm10 (+5), SNP9 (nc), PC4 (nc), Grn4 (nc), NI18, Oth5 (-1), Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 171   (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 178). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%

Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Lab 42.4%, Con 30.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (280 polls)

Lab 40.8%, Con 24.1%, Rfm 12.7%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 6.0%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 19.76%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for Aug (5 polls)
Lab 33.2%, Con 22.8%, Rfm 18.4%, LDem 11.4%, Grn 7.8%, Oth 6.4%

Lab lead over Con Aug: 10.4%)

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UK GENERAL ELECTION POLLING

More on this subject can be seen here.

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SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the General Election):-

Lab: 32.0% (-3.3)
SNP: 29.0% (-1.0)

Con: 12.0% (-0.7)
LDem: 8.0% (-1.7)
Rfm: 12.0% (+5.0)

Grn: 5.0% (+1.2)

Oth: 2.0% (+0.4)

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.0/28.0% (-2.0/+1.0)

SCon: 12.0/14.0% (-6.0/-2.0)

SLab: 30.0/28.0% (-3.0/-1.0)

SLD: 8.0/7.0% (nc/-2.0)

SGP: 5.0/8.0% (+2.0/-1.0)

Oth: 12.0/15.0% (+9.0/+5.0)

There were No IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures show last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (-3.3), No: 47.0% (+0.2), DK: 10.0% (+3.1)

(Yes: 47.8%, No: 52.2%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show previous polling):-

Lab: 45.0% (-3.0)
Con: 22.0% (+2.0)
PC: 10.0% (-nc)
LDem: 5.0% (+1.0)
Rfm 13.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (+1.0)

Oth 0.0% (-2.0)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures show last polling):-

Lab 37.0/34.5% (-6.0/+3.5)
Con 22.5/18.5% (+1.5/-0.5)
Plaid 18.5/19.0% (-1.5/-3.0)
LDem 5.5/9.0% (-0.5/-1.0)
Grn: 5.0/6.0% (+2.0/nc)
Rfm 5.5/5.5% (-3.5/-4.5)
AWA  1.0/5.5% (-0.6/+0.5)  
UKIP -/1.0%  (nc/+1.0)

Oth 5.0/6.0% (+1.0/+1.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures show last polling):-

Yes: 27% (-3.0),  No: 61% (+2.0), DK: 12% (+1.0)

(Yes: 30.7%, No: 69.3%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.    Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show previous  polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0% (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)

(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleaguered at the moment with asylum seekers, the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches.  Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.

There were 12 polls released since I last reported. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 23.3% (-5.0)

FF: 17.5 (-0.2)

FG: 21.7% (+2.4)

GP: 4.3% (+0.6)

LP: 3.6% (-0.4)

SD: 4.9% (-0.4)

PBP-S: 2.4% (+0.1) 

AÚ: 3.2% (+1.2)

Oth/Ind: 19.1% (+1.7)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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Germany is undergoing a significant shift to the Right and to what could be termed as 'populist' forms of it.   Indeed,  the Left-wing Coalition of Olaf Schulz's SPD, the Greens and FDP have just announced the opening stages of sending Afghans & Syrians back to their home countries (having just sent the first batch back, without an agreement with the Taleban) and denying illegal immigrants access to benefits - something unheard of 6 months ago.

AfD - 17.5% (-0.6)

CDU/CSU - 31.2% (nc)
FW - 1.5% (-1.0)

FDP - 4.9% (+0.2)

Grune - 11.3% (-2.0)

SPD - 15.3% (-0.3)

Die Linke - 3.0% (-0.1)
BSW - 13.6% (+7.6)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist nationalists'  or even 'national socialist')


There were two Stadt elections (Germany is a Federal Republic with a highly devolved second tier of regional assemblies) - Saxony & Thuringia.  Both took place in Statdts in the old East of the country on 01 Sep and the Right - in particular the populist-Right of AfD & BSW,did extraordinarily well.

SAXONY

(figures in brackets are change from last elections in 2019)

AfD - 30.6% (+3.1)

CDU/CSU - 31.9% (-0.2)
FW - 2.3% (-1.1)

FDP - 0.9% (-4.0)

Grune - 5.1% (-3.5)

SPD - 7.3% (-0.4)

Die Linke - 4.5% (-5.9)
BSW - 11.8% (+11.8)(new)

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THURINGIA

(figures in brackets are change from last elections in 2019)

AfD - 32.8% (+9.4)

CDU/CSU - 23.6% (+1.9)
FW - 2.3% (-1.1)

FDP - 1.1% (-3.9)

Grune - 3.2% (-2.0)

SPD - 6.1% (-2.1)

Die Linke - 13.1% (-7.9)
BSW - 15.8% (+15.8)(new)

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