OPINION POLLING FOR JANUARY 2024

 

Across JANUARY there were 30 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 26.1 (-0.3)
Lab  41.7% (-0.9) 
LDem 10.1% (-1.2) 
Grn 5.5% (nc) 

Rfm 9.3% (+0.7)

Oth 7.3% (+1.5)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 20-28%, Labour between 39-49% and the LDems between 6-11%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in 29 of the 30 polls and on two occasions showed a 27% lead ( YouGov 16-17 Jan & 23-24 Jan).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 13-27%.

If a General Election were held on these January figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of* :- L400 (-15), C179 (+11), SNP 20 (+4) , LD28 (-1), PC2 (-1), G2 (+1), NI18, Speaker 1   with Labour having a majority of 150 (although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 155.).

(*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%

Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (30 polls)

Con 26.1%, Lab 41.7%, LDem 10.1%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 9.3%, Oth 7.3%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 15.60%

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The war in the midde east rumbles on, slowly widening with no clear end in sight.   

In UK the Tories carry on with their assasinations and navel gazing, seemingly completely oblivious to what is about to engulf them if they don't start paying attention, in a war that has now widened to the Parliamentary tory party (MPs & Lords) vs the associations and members, with the former wanting total control over selecting the party leader and the policies whilst the later want greater party democracy.  Labour for their part are systematically deleting all committments and policies as the intention now is to allow Starmer to enter the General Election campaign 'policy-lite' so that he can't be pinned on anything. This is a strategy that requires micro-management because if the voters at large 'twig' that they will in effect be voting for a blank piece of paper with no idea as to what direction Labour intend to go, they might not warm to it.  Starmer is also seeking total control over party conference agenda.  Labour also continued with their 'Business Blitz' with a £1,000-a-head ticketed event for big business leaders.  It received a mixed reaction with the moguls moaning that there was far to much theory with too little reality and hands-on experience.  Labour again committed to their promise that they will not take the UK back into the EU, the Single Market or the Customs Union.

Reform continue to grow and in a couple of seats are actually polling high enough locally to take them on current trends.  They are pushing for second slot in the forth-coming Wellingborough by-election (15 Feb) and almost certainly their vote will cost the Tories the seat.  The tory campaign team are spending a huges amount of time trying to explain to Reform voters that they are gifting the seat to Labour, however the would-be Reform voters are countering that with they haven't moved position - the tories have and if the tories want them back, they have to move to them. Nationally Reform are now starting to out-poll the LDems with increasing regularity.

Likewise, the Covid Inquiry rumbles on also slowly widening with no clear end in sight and still to even bother making a feeble effort at what it was set up to do.  Nicola Sturgeon played for the sympathy vote and was ruthlessly and mercilessly mocked and the SAGE sientists admitted that not once did they ever consider the wider societal and financial implications of their recommendations and always presented only the 'worst case' scenario.

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SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 34.7% (-2.3)

SCon:  16.3% (+0.3)

SLab: 35.0% (+0.2)

SLD: 8.0% (+2.0)

Oth: 6.0% (-1.0)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 36.5/27.5% (-4.5/-0.5)

SCon: 16.0/18.0% (+1.0/-3.0)

SLab: 31.5/29.5% (+4.5/-+2.5)

SLD: 7.5/8.5% (-0.5/+0.5)

SGP: 4.0/10.0% (nc/+1.0)

Oth: 4.5/6.5% (+1.5/-0.5)

There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 46.3% (-2.2), No: 46.8% (+1.3), DK: 6.9% (+0.9)

(Yes: 48.2%, No: 51.8%)

(General Election 2019)

SNP: 45.0%

SCon: 25.1%

SLab: 18.6%

SLDem: 9.5%

Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 48.0% (+1.0)
Con: 20.0% (-2.0)
PC: 10.0% (-1.0)
LDem: 4.0% (-2.0)
Rfm 12.0% (+2.0)
Grn: 4.0% (+2.0)

Oth 2.0% (+1.0)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.

There wasone IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 30% (+2.0),  No: 59% (+2.0), DK: 11% (-4.0)

(Yes: 33.7%, No: 66.3%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

Things are moving with pace for the Assembly, deals being struck, history made.  Westminster has unliaterally amended the UK internal Market laws, and goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain will no longer be subject to Customs declararions etc nor treated any differently than if they were moving between Engand & Wals for exampe.  The Republic of Ireland is 'relaxed' about it but I am sure at some tage brussels will kick off.

There were no Westmister polls released during the month.   Last months figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019, first polling since)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleagured at the moment with asylum seekers, the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches.  Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.

There were two polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 27.5% (-0.5)

FF: 17.0 (-2.0)

FG: 20.0% (-1.0)

GP: 3.5% (+0.5)

LP: 3.5% (-0.5)

SD: 5.5% (+0.5)

PBP-S: 3.0% (-1.0) 

AÚ: 3.0% (nc)

Oth/Ind: 17.0% (+4.0)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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Germany

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. 

Chancellor Scholz (SPD) is now at loggerheads with the Farmers Union, with more strikes planned.

The mainstream parties - in conjunction with the Trades Unions etc, have held a series of large rallies across major towns and cities protesting about the rise and politics of AfD but they appear to have had little to no impact and were attended in the main by people that wouldn't vote for the AfD anyway.  Recently there have been a series of 'establishment' scandals involving AfD but voters currently are viewing them as an establishment plot to discredit them and the sudden appearance in the polling of BSW could also well be an attempt to offer an EU-sceptic, anti-immigrant, populist-left alternative to EU-sceptic, anti-immigrant, populist-right AfD and knock a bit of wind out of their sails.  BSW are basically left-wing nationalists who broke away from Die Linke. The political positions of BSW include further restrictions on immigration, a plan for de-globalist, opposed to green politics, ending military aid to Ukraine,  a negotiated settlement to the Russian invasion of Ukraine,  ecnomic interventionism at hme irrespectve of EU policy , geater state benefits - which are to be financed by the wealthy, while assets and inheritances should be spared. 

AfD - 21.4% (-1.6)

CDU/CSU - 30.5% (-2.0)
FW - 3.0% (-0.3)

FDP - 4.6% (-0.5)

Grune - 13.0% (-+0.6)

SPD - 14.6% (+1.2)

Die Linke - 3.6% (+0.1)
BSW - 6.5% (na)

(In UK terms, crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist' similar to Galloway's Workers Party of GB.)

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