OPINION POLLING FOR DECEMBER 2023

 

Across DECEMBER there were 23 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 26.4% (+0.6)
Lab  42.6% (-1.8) 
LDem 11.2% (+0.3) 
Grn 5.5% (-0.4) 
Rfm 8.6% (+1.1)
Oth 5.8% (+0.3)
Ave Lab lead over Con for July:-  16.17% (-2.45)

The Tories swung between 22-30%, Labour between 40-46% and the LDems between 9-13%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 23 polls and on two occasions showed a 23% lead ( YouGov 6-7 Dec & Techne 6-7 Dec ).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 13-23%.

If a General Election were held on these December figures:-  and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of* L415 (-9), C168 (+23), SNP 16 (-12) , LD29 (+2), PC3 (nc), G1 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1   with Labour having a majority of 180 (although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 185.).

(*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)
Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for December (23 polls)
Con 26.4%, Lab 42.6%, LDem 11.2%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 8.6%, Oth 5.8%
Lab lead over Con December: 16.17% (-2.45)

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The main focus of all politicians - irrespective of what they say publicly, remains the situation in Gaza which is slowly widening and spreading.  The fear of all is that the west will at some stage have to become militarily involved again in the Middle East - something that after Iraq, Afghanistan & Syria it is highly resistant to unless it becomes a 'last resort';  and the situation starts to raise inflation and the price of oil thus endangering the western economies (think what happened in the 1970s with the arab response to the Yom Kippur war).   Oil remains reasonably low, but sooner or later the arab nations in OPEC+ are going to use it to force the issue with the west unless something is done to resolve Gaza.  At the time of writing, inflation in UK is still falling but in other leading european economies is starting to rise again and is tipped to start rising again in the USA later in the year.  

Mostly, little of any worth is being said by either side as they watch each other warily during what is now the pre-election 'phoney war'.

The Covid enquiry plods on and continues to do little with what it was actually set up for - looking at the causes of Covid and the lessons that can be learned for future pandemics, instead preferring to preside over character assasinations going on between the tory government, scientists, medics and civil servants with all of them attacking each other and also rival peers within their own camps.  In other words, we are spending over £100m to learn nothing at all.

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SCOTLAND

Politics remained very quiet in Scotland during December as they prepared for Hogmany.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Last months figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 37.0% (+3.8)

SCon:  16.0% (-3.8)

SLab: 33.0% (-0.8)

SLD: 6.0% (-0.6)

Oth: 7.0% (+0.4)

There were no  Holyrood polls released during the month Last months figures are repeated just for reference  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 41.0/28.0% (+5.4/+0.2)

SCon: 15.0/21.0% (-4.2/+5.0)

SLab: 27.0/27.0% (-3.4/-0.8)

SLD: 8.0/8.0% (nc/-0.6)

SGP: 4.0/9.0% (+0.2/-2.4)

Oth: 3.0/7.0% (+1.0/-1.4)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.  Last months figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 48.5% (+4.3), No: 45.5% (-3.1), DK: 6.0% (-1.2)

(Yes: 51.6%, No: 48.4%)

(General Election 2019)

SNP: 45.0%

SCon: 25.1%

SLab: 18.6%

SLDem: 9.5%

Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 47.0% (+3.0)
Con: 22.0% (-2.0)
PC: 11.0% (-2.0)
LDem: 6.0% (+2.0)
Rfm 10.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 2.0% (-3.0)

Oth 2.0% (+1.0)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 28% (-3.0),  No: 57% (-2.0), DK: 15% (+5.0)

(Yes: 32.9%, No: 67.1%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.  Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.

There were no Westmister polls released during the month.   Last months figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019, first polling since)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleagured at the moment with asylum seekers, the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches.  Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.

There was two polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 28.0% (-2.0)

FF: 19.0 (+2.0)

FG: 21.0% (+0.5)

GP: 3.0% (-1.0)

LP: 4.0% (+0.5)

SD: 5.0% (-0.5)

PBP-S: 4.0% (+0.5) 

AÚ: 3.0% (+0.5)

Oth/Ind: 13.0% (-0.5)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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Germany

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. 

As an example of political re-alignment underway in Germany, there are about to be a series of large strikes, all opposed by Olaf Scholz's ruling SPD, while the party supporting the unions (and who the unions are working with), is the populist-Right AfD.

AfD - 23.0% (+2.0)

CDU/CSU - 32.5% (+2.7)
FW - 3.3% (n/a)

FDP - 5.1% (-0.2)

Grune - 12.4% (-1.9)

SPD - 13.4% (-2.4)

Die Linke - 3.5% (-0.6)

(In UK terms, crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, and Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)

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THE USA

The Presidentials in the USA are starting to disintegrate into a 'Carry On' Film.  That said,  latest polling figures have Trump on course for a bigger election victory than in 2016 as the mainstream voters become increasingly disillusined by the machinations of the Washington 'swamp' to stop Trump standing let alone winning, and it's obesession with what most Americans view as politically correct drivel.     Latest polling now has Trump not only with a clear lead in every swing state,  but the US public is now against funding at the previous levels for Ukraine,  but in favour of increasing spending on military aid for Israel.   Despite the antics of the metropolitan 'woke' liberal middle class,  the majority of Americans remain supportive of Israeli action in Gaza while at the same time,  they are becoming increasingly against the cost of continued support for Ukraine believing its a european problem that has little bearing on the USA and europe should be taking the lions share of the financing and military support and not the US.

Society-wise, the US is falling to pieces, particulalrly in the (Democrat-run) major urban areas.    For example there are now 50,000 people sleeping rough on the streets in just New York alone every night, including families and lone children, as well as more in the overnight-shelters which are full every night.    Several cities are now taking over car parks and installing security so that people living out of their cars have somewhere safe to sleep.   Illegal immigration coming over the Mexican border is now reaching astronomic levels with over 3m crossing during 2023 alone.   Several cities that effectivley 'de-criminalised' hard drugs by opting to turn a blind-eye (again almost exclusively Democrat) are now deeply regretting their action as streets in the poorer areas are littered with semi-conscious junkies addicted to mass-produced cheap Chinese Fentanyl along with other artificial opioid drugs and other synthetics developed in Chinese laboratories and the formulae sold on to crime, along with the associated rise in muggings, thefts, burglaries, begging, involvement of organised crime and street prostitution.

Biden is now the most unpopular White House incumbent since records began during the Civil War.  He is even more unpopular than 'Tricky-Dickie' Richard Nixon at his lowest.

There is now a massive (and widening) cultural split beween the urbanised liberal-left middle class in the metropolitan areas - who although in the minority, because of location, organisation, income, opportunity and education etc, hold the levers of power, and the majority mainstream 'ordinary' Americans in the suburban and rural areas,who are becoming increasingly annoyed and hostile towards  them, Washington and what is described as 'woke ideaology' by the day.  Trump even leads among the black & hispanc working class & union members (much to the disgust & dismay of the union leaders) and the election among the 'swamp' and the elite is aready sinking to 'Stop Trump' as opposed to any ideas for dealing with the USA's increasing societal problems.

PREDICTIONS FOR 2024.

There are major elections during the year for over half the worlds population able to vote.  Russia, India, USA, UK all go to the polls as well as the EU and there are a host of nations with fragile coalition rgovernments that will probably fall - such as Netherlands, Poland, Argentina and others, that will also probably need to got to the polls.  With that many voters all involved at once,  the scene is set for seismic shifts.

USA:- This is going to be a vicous and dirty year politically.   Provided Trump gets to the election in November, he will win however the turn-out will be very low and the USA will be split deeply.  If he doesn't make the final vote but Biden does,  expect a marginal paper thin Biden victory, but with the Republicans taking both Houses, effectively crippling him from the outset.   As an outside bet, don't be surprised if neither Trump nor Biden make the final vote - Trump for legal rasons and Biden for health reasons; and it ends up Kamala Harris(D) against Nikki Haley(R) in which case Haley will win and either way the USA will have it's first female President.  Whatever the outcome, the USA is about to enter an extremely volatile and divisive period against a backdrop of increasing social decay and disorder that will last years.  

The EU:-  The European elections are going to deeply distress the EU fanatics as the EU takes a major lurch to the Right and immediately sets about re-jigging the EU economy - particulalrly the euro-zone, to a far less centralised, one-size-fits-all system and allowing member-states far more freedoms to diverge and opt-out of parts as well as tightening what 'Freedom Of Movement' means and restricting it to meaning freedom to move states to a job that you have been offered and are taking (what it originally meant).  In addition, they will start to take a far far tougher line with asylum seekers and tighten their borders.  Facial Recognition backed up with bio-metrics will be widely rolled-out right across the bloc. Artificial Intelligence will start to become widely used across government & industry.  Something few people seem to realise is the EU Council Presidency is a rotating thing shared among member states in sequential order.  The next Council President of the EU is the head of Hungary - which presently happens to be Viktor Orban.  With more EU policy set to become QMV as opposed to absolute,  the Council Presidency held by an EU-sceptic, and the European Parliament about to lurch significantly rightwards,  the scene is set for fun & games.

UK:- Labour will probably win the UK election which will be a heated affair and which will probably take place mid-October.   However it will be a far far smaller majority than current polling suggests and don't be surprised if they end up in minority government with politicians from all sides who are seemingly intent on ignoring the wishes of the openly disenchanted public.  The turn-out will be one of the lowest since WW2.  The UK electorate is 'fragile' and unsettled and the majority have no faith in nor respect for politicians from either camp.   One slip by either Starmer or Sunak (or any of their first team) will cause immedaite and quite noticeable shifts among voters, with immigration, taxation and housing being the major issues.  The public will also expect concrete guarenteed answers to 'What Are You Going To Do About Our Concerns?  When?  How Long Will It Take? How Much Will It Cost?  Where Will The Money Come From?

Russia:- Putin is a shoe-in unless the Russian Mafia or the military decide it's time for regime change.

India:- Modi is a shoe-in.  His mix of central control and free-market policies (similar to Italian fascism of the 1920s & 30s) is eliminating poverty in India at a phenonamal rate.

The Ukraine War:- This is nowhere near a finished affair yet and neither side is showing any desire to end it and they remain miles apart.  It will rumble on all year.  The introduction of US F-16 aircraft will make only a marginal difference (as happened with LEOPARD2).  Ultimately this highly-sophisticated western kit is designed to be operated by highly trained personnel, who have had years of experience and thousands of hours of training - the kit is only as good as the operator.

Gaza:- This should end by summer with Israel clear victors.  The main factor being the US wants this off the agenda by summer so it does not become an election issue in the Presidential election campaign.   Some sort of post-war arrangement is already taking shape behind the scenes (the 'four corner' strategy roughly suported by Israel & Egypt) with Gaza nominally remaining in the Palestinian Authority but semi-autonomous, ruled buy an appointed, pro-west, secularist Council of elders with proven non-HAMAS links, under direct supervision of Israel & the USA.  The proposal sees it occupied by a pan-Arab paramilitary police force drawn from Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan & Turkey who will maintain law and order, with Israeli Special Forces in charge of anti-terrorism and the borders.  The USA, Saudi Arabia and several other 'oil nations' will re-build Gaza with an open, liberalised, western-style economy.   Basic 'building block' societal things such as childrens' education along with the curriculum for it, will come under direct US control with the EU and Israel heavily involved. Religion  and non-secular Islam, will be forced to loosen it's grip and take a back seat.  If it doesn't end by the end of summer, the whole middle east will explode.

Happy New Year.

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