OPINION POLLING FOR NOVEMBER 2023

Across NOVEMBER there were 36 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 25.8% (-1.5)
Lab  44.4% (-0.3) 
LDem 10.9% (nc) 
Grn 5.9% (+0.5) 
Rfm 7.5% (+1.1)
Oth 5.5% (+0.1)
Ave Lab lead over Con for July:-  18.62% (+1.15)

The Tories swung between 23-29%, Labour between 40-49% and the LDems between 9-14%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 36 polls and on one occasion showed a 30% lead ( PeoplePolling 14 Nov).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 12-30%

If a General Election were held on these NOVEMBER figures:-  and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of* L426 (+9), C145 (-12), SNP 28 (+9) , LD27 (+1), PC3 (nc), G1 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1   with Labour having a majority of 206 (although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 210.) 

(*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (344 polls)
Con 27.2%, Lab 45.2%, LDem 10.3%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.1%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 17.99%

Polling figures for November (36 polls)
Con 25.8%, Lab 44.4%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 5.9%, Rfm 7.5%, Oth 5.5%
Lab lead over Con November: 18.62%

November was overshadowed by the on-going and increasing conflict in Gaza and the opening salvos of the Covid Inquiry.   So far from the Covid Inquiry the only thing we have learnt is not one single senior scientist, politician or civil service official had the same opinion as to how Covid should have been dealt with.  Just amongst the four senior scientist/medical people (Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance, Johnathan van Tamm & Jenny Harries), one thought lockdown was about right, one opposed it, one thought it was late and one thought it was too early.   One even opposed (and still opposes) the wearing of face coverings saying they provided no protection from Covid unless you wore three and because they gave a false sense of security to the wearer and as a result helped spread it faster.   The Inquiry will last longer than 'Pickwick Papers' and cost over £100m and so far has achieved nothing of it's primary purpose - 'what lessons can be learned'.  Quite possibly - as we are discovering, this is probably why most other advanced countries are not bothering with an Inquiry at all or if they did, they've already held it and it was very quick and achieved nothing (2 days in one european country that was hit far worse than UK).

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SCOTLAND

A month watching the on-going self-immolation of the SNP - who it must be said, are holding up rather well.

There were two Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 37.0% (+3.8)

SCon:  16.0% (-3.8)

SLab: 33.0% (-0.8)

SLD: 6.0% (-0.6)

Oth: 7.0% (+0.4)

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 41.0/28.0% (+5.4/+0.2)

SCon: 15.0/21.0% (-4.2/+5.0)

SLab: 27.0/27.0% (-3.4/-0.8)

SLD: 8.0/8.0% (nc/-0.6)

SGP: 4.0/9.0% (+0.2/-2.4)

Oth: 3.0/7.0% (+1.0/-1.4)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 48.5% (+4.3,  No: 45.5% (-3.1), DK: 6.0% (-1.2)

(Yes: 51.6%, No: 48.4%)

(General Election 2019)

SNP: 45.0%

SCon: 25.1%

SLab: 18.6%

SLDem: 9.5%

Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 44.0% (-2.0)
Con: 24.0% (-2.5)
PC: 13.0% (+3.0)
LDem: 4.0% (+1.0)
Rfm 9.0% (-1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (+1.0)

Oth 1.0% (nc)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.

There were one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 31% (+9.0),  No: 59% (+3.0), DK: 10% (-12.0)

(Yes: 34.4%, No: 65.6%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.  Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.

There was one Westmister poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019, first polling since)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There was two polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 30.0% (-2.0)

FF: 17.0 (+2.0)

FG: 20.5% (-0.5)

GP: 4.0% (nc)

LP: 3.5% (-1.5)

SD: 5.5% (+1.2)

PBP-S: 3.5% (+0.5) 

AÚ: 2.5% (+0.5)

Oth/Ind: 13.5% (+1.5)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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Germany

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU. 

AfD - 21.0% (-0.5)

CDU/CSU - 29.8% (+1.1)

FDP - 5.3% (-0.2)

Grune - 14.3% (+0.5)

SPD - 15.8% (-0.2)

Die Linke - 4.1% (-0.3)

(In UK terms, crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, and Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)

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