OPINION POLLING FOR FEBRUARY 2024

Across FEBRUARY there were 36 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 25.1 (-1.0)
Lab  43.5% (+1.8) 
LDem 9.8% (-0.3) 
Grn 6.0% (+0.5) 

Rfm 10.1% (+0.8)

Oth 5.5% (-1.8)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 21-29%, Labour between 40-48%, Reform between 7-14% and the LDems between 7-11%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 36 polls and on 2 occasions showed a 26% lead (YouGov, 20-21Feb & 28-29 Feb).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 11-26%.  Of note is that this is the first month that Reform have out-polled the LDems and in one poll were were just 6% behind the Tories (YouGov, 28-29 Feb).

If a General Election were held on these February figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of* :- C109 (-70), L459 (+59), LD37 (+9), SNP20 (+4), PC4 (+2), G2 (-), NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 190.    (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 195.). You will note that the polls have only showed minor changes to last month,  but in our constituency-based first-past-the-post system, just minor changes result in quite large shifts in the number of seats a party gains or loses.

(*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%

Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (66 polls)

Con 25.6%, Lab 42.6%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.8%, Rfm 9.7%, Oth 6.4%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 17.01%

Polling figures for February (36 polls)
Con 25.1%, Lab 43.5%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 6.0%, Rfm 10.1%, Oth 5.5%
Lab lead over Con February: 18.41% (-2.45)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The war in Gaza rumbles on as does the war in Ukraine.  In the former the Israelis are griding their way to victory whilst in the latter, the month was dominated by the inevitable fall of Avdiivka; as both sides grind their way to the inevitable stalemate and the continued resistance in Congress to giving Ukraine more help.

On the 'home front', the political situation remained largely unchanged until right at the end when that old war-horse 'Gorgeous' George Galloway convincingly won the seat of Rochdale by a country mile, representing his Workers Party of Britain (WPB) - a party that is a strange kettle of fish to say the least.  Situated well to the left of Starmer's Labour whilst at the same time being more UK-nationalist than the BNP whilst at the same time some how being an internationalist.  It blends a mix of old-school traditional 'methodist' working class Labour values, hard left Trotskyism, trades unionism, disarmament, islamism etc etc, is anti-NATO, anti-EU and anti just about anything you can think of and keeps some very strange bed-fellows both at home and abroad.    Galloway - despite being a poisonous individual with equally poisonous friends,  is a ferocious campaigner, outstanding Parliamentarian, extraordinarily eloquent in speeches and is best remembered by many for his total contempt and dismissal of the US Congressional Committee to their faces live on US TV for an hour as they attempted to question him over Iraq and oil sales and they remarked to the media after the experience that nobody had ever spoken to them in such a disresepctful and aggressive manner ever before. They didn't invite him back.  An extremist, but never the less it will be good to see him in Parliament again as you can guarentee he will give anyone and everyone a very very public roasting whenever and wherever he can and already he has belittled both Starmer and Sunak on TV.  I for one can't wait for his introductory speech - Sunak & Starmer will be firmly put in their place of that I have no doubts.

Reform are now above the LDems in the averages for the month and are less than half of one percent below them in the averages for the year.

Allegations persist that Labour used undue leverage on the Speaker to break with acceoted convention and allow an Opposition Amendment to an Opposition Day Motion regarding Gaza.  The impact was in effect to allow Labour to hi-jack the SNPs Motion, thereby preventing the SNP from even voting on their own Motion while at the same time preventing Labour from disintegrating into a very public civil war.  This led to a walk-out by the SNP & the Tories, bitter recriminations levelled at a very shame-faced Speaker and the man left clinging to his job by his fingernails with his credibility in tatters.

March will see the usual speculation over the Budget.  The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has already made Chancellor Hunt remove and change many parts as 'unaffordable' (People don't seem to realise that the government can't set it's own budget anymore as it used to be able to - it has to be approved by the OBR hence why Labour's promised spending should they win the next election has been significantly scaled-back and a whole host of plans cancelled - although the government can change the rules the OBR uses if it wishes.).  There is even speculation in the 'broadsheets' now that Sunak will call a quick 'kamikazi' general election very quickly after the budget.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 36.7% (+2.0)

SCon:  15.7% (-0.6)

SLab: 33.0% (-0.2)

SLD: 7.3% (-0.7)

Oth: 7.3% (-0.7)

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.0/27.0% (-1.5/-0.5)

SCon: 18.0/16.0% (+2.0/-2.0)

SLab: 33.0/29.0% (+1.5/-0.5)

SLD: 8.0/9.0% (+0.5/+0.5)

SGP: 3.0/9.0% (-1.0/-1.0)

Oth: 3.0/10.0% (-1.5/+3.5)

There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (-3.3), No: 47.0% (+0.2), DK: 10.0% (+3.1)

(Yes: 47.8%, No: 52.2%)

(General Election 2019)

SNP: 45.0%

SCon: 25.1%

SLab: 18.6%

SLDem: 9.5%

Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 45.0% (-3.0)
Con: 22.0% (+2.0)
PC: 10.0% (-nc)
LDem: 5.0% (+1.0)
Rfm 13.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (+1.0)

Oth 0.0% (-2.0)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

Lab 37.0/34.5% (-6.0/+3.5)
Con 22.5/18.5% (+1.5/-0.5)
Plaid 18.5/19.0% (-1.5/-3.0)
LDem 5.5/9.0% (-0.5/-1.0)
Grn: 5.0/6.0% (+2.0/nc)
Rfm 5.5/5.5% (-3.5/-4.5)
AWA  1.0/5.5% (-0.6/+0.5)  
UKIP -/1.0%  (nc/+1.0)

Oth 5.0/6.0% (+1.0/+1.0)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 27% (-3.0),  No: 61% (+2.0), DK: 12% (+1.0)

(Yes: 30.7%, No: 69.3%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

Things are now far more settled politically in Northern Ireland and the Assembly is now sitting again and a devolved government is in place.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.    Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0% (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)

(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleagured at the moment with asylum seekers, the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches.  Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 28.3% (+0.8)

FF: 17.7 (+0.7)

FG: 19.3% (-0.7)

GP: 3.7% (+0.2)

LP: 4.0% (+0.5)

SD: 5.3% (-0.2)

PBP-S: 2.3% (-0.7) 

AÚ: 2.0% (-1.0)

Oth/Ind: 17.4% (+0.4)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GERMANY

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. 

Chancellor Scholz (SPD) is now at loggerheads with the Farmers Union, with more strikes planned.

AfD - 18.8% (-2.6)

CDU/CSU - 30.4% (-0.1)
FW - 2.8% (-0.2)

FDP - 4.4% (-0.2)

Grune - 13.4% (+0.4)

SPD - 15.0% (+0.6)

Die Linke - 3.1% (-0.5)
BSW - 6.4% (-0.1)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist' similar to Galloway's Workers Party of GB.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

USA

The month wouldn't be complete without mentioning............................'The Donald'.   Trump is seemingly bullet-proof.  The more misery the 'swamp' attempts to pin on him,  the higher he goes in the polls.   He has won the first six Republican Primaries at a canter.  His only real rival - Nikki Haley, even lost her home state. As we go to print, even though strictly speaking it's really for next month's round-up, Haley won Washington DC but that will be the pinnacle of her campaign I suspect and 'Super-Tuesday' on March 5th, where Republicans in 15 states & one territory will select their choice of candidate will probably see her withdraw uness she pulls of a miracle.  At that point, if she has poor results, her spoonsors and backers will abandon her and her campaign will run out of money. 

Biden for his part continues to sink lower amongst his own supporters.  

I show this graphic of polling in six key states.

A massive poll conducted in every state suggests that if the Presidential election were to be held tomorrow,  the Electoral College (the system the USA uses) will be 224-314 in Trump's favour.  A landslide.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~