OPINION POLLING FOR AUGUST 2023

 

 

Across AUGUST there were 23 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 26.9% (-0.3) 

Lab  44.6% (-0.4) 
LDem 10.8  (+0.2) 
Grn 5.2% (+0.4) 
Rfm 6.7% (+0.7)
Oth 5.3% (-0.6)
Ave Lab lead over Con for July:-  18.10% (+0.3)

The Tories swung between 24-30%, Labour between 42-51% and the LDems between 9-13%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 23 polls, reached 50% once and on one occasion showed a 24% lead (We Think, 10-11 Aug).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 15-24%
.
If a General Election were held on these AUGUST figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L422, C156, SNP26 , LD24, PC3, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 193 (although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein will not take their seats, so around 196. Bizarrely, many people believe Sinn Fein are absent from Parliament.  Far from it,  they have offices, staff etc, they attend Commons social functions and they take part in all activities other than the actual political side - the Committees, the Chamber, state openings etc etc).

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (244 polls)

Con 27.2%, Lab 45.5%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.1%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.31%

Polling figures for August ( 23 polls)

Con 26.9%, Lab 44.6%, LDem 10.8%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 6.7%, Oth 5.3%

Lab lead over Con August: 18.10%

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) apparently got it's sums wrong (yet again) and UK actually recovered from Covid faster and further than they initially thought and we are by no means the slowest growing economy in the G7 much to the disappointment of Labour who had been using that as a weapon for months.   

Ben Wallace the Defence Secretary resigned as he said he would.  Mr Wallace was one of the most efficient and capable Secretary of State's for Defence we have had for around the last three decades and highly regarded by the Tory membership and the media on all sides.   He had been struggling with marital problems for some time due to the pressures of the job.  

The cross-channel illegal immigration continues to be a major problem for the government however Labour can gain no succour from that as their 5-point plan to reform the asylum system is actually viewed with derision by a significant majority of the electorate (around 70/30), who view it as less sea-worthy than the proverbial brick.  The main-stream political class on all sides are struggling with the fact that the overwhelming bulk of the voters on all sides want this stopped and the ones that are here thrown out 'pdq' - not processed faster (because processed faster means allowing them to stay).  The public don't want more laws - they want the existing laws actually enforced ruthlessly and rigidly.  The politicians seem unable or unwilling to grasp that and the issue will remain an open sore that as we get closer to the next election, will damage both main parties.  However they can draw some comfort from the fact that this is becoming a massive issue right across europe and the 'hoi-poloi' of the continent have had enough.  

Sadiq Khan's ULEZ Expansion rolled-out and already the sheer number of cameras being vandalised or stolen is mind-boggling.  497 of 2,692 known cameras are currently out of action at the time of posting due to vandalism or theft and the number is increasing daily at a rate faster than they can be repaired/replaced.  South London appears to be the worst affected area.  Polling shows the majority in favour of Net Zero policies etc, but when the seem people are then re-polled with the caveat that they will have to pay for it the overwhelming majority suddenly opposes it.

England's Lionesses lost to Spain in the Womens World Cup Final, with winners Spain immediately plunging into controversy and scandal over 'that kiss'.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 36.7% (+0.7)
SCon:  16.3% (-2.7)
SLab: 33.7% (+0.7)
SLD: 6.3% (-1.7)

Oth: 7.0% (+3.0)

There were three Holyrood polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 38.7/30.3% (+3.2/+0.8)
SCon: 16.3/15.7% (-2.7/-2.8)
SLab: 32.3/29.3% (+0.8/+1.8)
SLD: 7.7/8.7% (-2.3/-1.8)
SGP: 2.5/6.7% (+0.5/-2.3)
Oth: 2.5/3.8% (+0.5/-1.7)

There were three IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 43.3% (+2.3),  No: 46.3% (-1.2), DK: 10.4% (-2.9)

(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)

(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3% 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 41.0% (-5.0)
Con: 24.0% (nc)
PC: 13.0% (+3.0)
LDem: 7.0% (nc)
Rfm 11.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 4.0% (+1.0)

Oth 0.0%

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

Lab 37.0/31.0% (-5.0/-2.0)
Con 21.0/19.0% (-1.0/-1.0)
Plaid 20.0/22.0% (+4.0/+3.0)
LDem 6.0/10.0% (nc/nc)
Grn: 3.0/6.0% (nc/nc)
Rfm 9.0/10.0% (+2.0/+4.0)
AWA  -/-% (-/-)  NOT POLLED
UKIP -/-% (-/-) NOT POLLED

Oth 4.0/6.0% (nc/+1.0)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 33% (+5.0),  No: 53% (+1.0), DK:14% (-3.0)

(Yes: 38.4%, No: 61.6%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.  Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.

There were no Westmister polls released during the month.

There was one Assembly poll released during the month.

SF: 31.0% (+2.0)
DUP: 26.0% (+1.0)
APNI: 15.0% (+2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 6.0% (-1.0)
TUV: 5.0% (-2.0)
S-PBP: 1.0% (nc)
Oth: 6.0% (-1.0)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 42%)

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There was one poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 34.0% (+1.5)

FF: 18.0% (-3.5)

FG: 19.0% (nc)

GP: 5.0% (+1.5)

LP: 4.0% (+1.0)

SD: 5.0% (+1.0)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

AÚ: 2.0% (nc)

Oth/Ind: 10.0% (-1.5)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Food inflation rates, July 2023 (published in August).

Food inflation continues to fall across most of the european area at various speeds dependent on background factors such as levels of import, predominant type of diet and energy sources.

Turkey 72.9% (+12.2)

Hungary 22.0% (-7.3)
Serbia 20.4% (-1.7)

Slovakia 16.5% (-2.4)

Estonia 16.4% (-3.1) 

Romania 16.4% (-1.5)
Poland 15.6% (-2.2)
United Kingdom 14.8% (-2.5) ⬅️

Bulgaria 13.5% (+0.2)

Belgium 13.4% (-0.5)
Ukraine 13.3% (-3.2)
France 12.7% (-1.0)
Lithuania 12.6% (1.8)
Croatia 12.6% (-2.0)

European Union (as a whole) 12.5% (-1.3)

Greece 12.4% (+0.2)

Iceland 12.4% (+0.3)

European Union (euro area only) 11.6% (-1.0)

Moldova 11.6% (-1.6)

Netherlands 11.5% (-1.5)

Latvia 11.2% (-3.2)
Germany 10.9% (-2.5)

Italy 10.9% (nc)
Spain 10.8% (+0.5)

Austria 10.5% (-0.6)
Sweden 10.5% (-2.0)

Montenegro 10.1% (-0.6)
Malta 10.0% (-1.8)

Cyprus 9.9% (-0.2)

Albania 9.5% (-1.4)
Czech Republic 9.5% (-2.5)

Norway 8.9% (-4.6)

Ireland 8.8% (-1.4)

Bosnia 8.7% (-1.4)

Finland 8.2% (-1.0)

Portugal 7.3% (-1.2)

Denmark 6.6% (-2.2)

Switzerland 4.1% (-1.2)

Belorus 3.9% (+0.3)

Russia 2.2% (+2.0) 

(Source: Trading Economics Aug 2023)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The USA 

The Republicans go from strength-to-strength and Trump likewise within the Republican movement.   He was absent from the recent party leader debate, but the fact that he is around 50% support within the membership means it is of insignificance at this stage.  Of the remaining 8 candidates,  none are at even 15% membership support and at that first debate when asked would they be happy to serve as Vice President to Trump, without hesitation 7 of the 8 said they would.

Really the only thing of interest is that when given the choice of 'Trump, Biden or neither' 70% of respondants opted for 'neither'.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Germany

AfD cotinues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their position on major issue such as econimics, illegal immigration & the EU.  For example, the SPD are now shifting towards 'Truss-nomics' and are cuttig taxes for businesses etc by £36bn a year as it attempts to stave off crippling 'stagflation'.

AfD - 21.5% (1.1)

CDU/CSU - 26.5% (+0.2)

FDP - 7.0% (-0.5)

Grune - 14.4% (-0.4)

SPD - 18.1% (-0.2)

Die Linke - 4.7% (nc)

(In UK terms, simply put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, and Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~