OPINION POLLING FOR JULY 2023

 

 

Across JULY there were 32 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 27.2% (-0.6) 

Lab  45.0% (+0.3) 
LDem 11.0  (+0.1) 
Grn 4.8% (-0.5) 
Rfm 6.0% (+0.3)
Oth 5.9% (+0.3)
Ave Lab lead over Con for July:-  17.80% (+0.9)

The Tories swung between 22-29%, Labour between 41-50% and the LDems between 8-14%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 32 polls, breached 50% once and on one occasion showed a 26% lead (Omnisis, 06-07 Jul).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 15-26%
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If a General Election were held on these JULY figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L444, C143, SNP23 , LD18, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 238.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (221 polls)

Con 27.3%, Lab 45.7%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 5.8%, Oth 6.3%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.84%

Polling figures for July ( 32 polls)

Con 27.2%, Lab 45.0%, LDem 11.0%, Grn 4.8%, Rfm 6.0%, Oth 5.9%

Lab lead over Con July: 17.80%

A month dominated by three by-elections in Tory seats, all held on the same day.  At the start of the month the Tories were forecast to lose all three - a 'feat' the governing party of the day had not suffered since it happened to Labour's Harold Wilson in the 1960's (less than 18 months later he went on to win the election with an increased majority - something the Tories will take heart from no doubt).  It ended with the three main parties taking one seat each, with the electorate sending  inconsistant and highly mixed-messages for the three main parties from all of them - as usually happens in by-elections.  The SNP will face their own moment of truth in the next few months in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat vacated by the now-disgraced former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier.  In her case, 11,986 voters – or 14.7% of the constituency's registered electorate – signed the recall petition.  Sounds low,  but that is high enough to trigger it.  Already there is controversy with the Labour candidate openly refusing point blank to endorse Starmer's policies.

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SCOTLAND

There were two Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 36.0% (-0.3)
SCon:  19.0% (+0.7)
SLab: 33.0% (+1.0)
SLD: 8.0% (+0.3)

Oth: 4.0% (-1.7)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.5/29.5% (-1.8/+1.8)
SCon: 19.0/18.5% (+1.3/+0.8)
SLab: 31.5/27.5% (+0.2/+0.5)
SLD: 10.0/10.5% (+1.7/+0.7)
SGP: 2.0/9.0% (-2.5/-3.7)
Oth: 2.0/5.5% (+0.1/+0.3)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 41% (-3.8),  No: 47.5% (+0.7) DK: 7.5% (-1.5)

(Yes: 46.3%, No: 53.7%)

(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3% 

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 46.0% (+3.0)
Con: 24.0% (+2.0)
PC: 10.0% (nc)
LDem: 7.0% (nc)
Rfm 10.0% (-2.0)
Grn: 3.0% (-1.0)

Oth 1.0%.(nc)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

Lab 42.0/33.0% (+6.0/+3.0)
Con 22.0/20.0% (nc/-2.0)
Plaid 16.0/19.0% (-3.0/-1.0)
LDem 6.0/10.0% (-1.0/+1.0)
Grn: 3.0/6.0% (-1.0/nc)
Rfm 7.0/6.0% (-3.0/-2.0)
AWA  -/-% (-/-) - NOT POLLED
UKIP -/-% (-/-) - NOT POLLED

Oth 4.0/6.0% (+1.0/+1.0)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 32% (+2.0),  No: 58% (+1.0), DK:10% (-3.0)

(Yes: 35.6%, No: 64.4%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on mor than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock,  with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.

There were no Westmister polls released during the month.

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were two polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 32.5% (+1.8)

FF: 21.5% (+2.8)

FG: 19.0% (-0.7)

GP: 3.5% (-0.2)

LP: 3.0% (-3.0)

SD: 4.0% (-1.3)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

AÚ: 2.0% (nc)

Oth/Ind: 11.5% (-3.7)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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Food inflation rates, June 2023 (published in July).

Food inflation continues to fall across europe at various speeds dependent on background factors such as levels of import, predominant type of diet and energy sources.  Of worry is the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the subsequent Russian targeting of Ukrainian docks, grain storage and transportation means.  Indeed,  already western governments are warning that prices of items like bread, breakfast cereals. flour-based products and meat from grain-fed stock will start to see an increase in prices over the coming weeks.  Rice is also starting to rise in price as countries seek to use it as an alternative to wheat  etc.  Wheat has risen 14% in the past fortnight, maize 12% and the IMF is warning grain will rise a further 15% within weeks and then keep rising if the Black Sea Initiative is not quickly restored.

Turkey 60.7% (+8.2)

Hungary 29.3% (-4.7)
Serbia 22.1% (-1.1)

Estonia 19.5% (-0.9) 

Slovakia 18.9% (-2.8)

Romania 17.9% (-0.8)
Poland 17.8% (-1.1)
United Kingdom 17.3% (-1.0) ⬅️

Ukraine 16.5% (-3.6)
Lithuania 14.4% (-3.8)

Latvia 14.4% (-3.5)
Belgium 13.9% (-1.2)
European Union (as a whole) 13.8% (-1.2)

Norway 13.5% (+0.8)

Germany 13.4% (-1.1)
Bulgaria 13.3% (-1.1)

Moldova 13.1% (-0.9)

Netherlands 13.0% (-1.8)
European Union (euro area only) 12.6% (-1.1)

France 12.6% (-1.1)

Sweden 12.5% (-1.7)

Greece 12.2% (+0.6)

Iceland 12.1% (-0.2)

Czech Republic 12.0% (-2.2)

Malta 11.8% (+0.9)

Croatia 11.5% (-3.6)

Spain 11.3% (-1.7)

Austria 11.1% (-1.2)

Albania 10.9% (+0.3)

Italy 10.9% (-0.9)

Montenegro 10.7% (nc)

Ireland 10.2% (2.5)

Bosnia 10.1% (-0.9)

Cyprus 10.1% (+1.7)

Finland 9.2% (-1.9)

Denmark 8.8% (-1.8)

Portugal 8.6% (-0.8)

Switzerland 5.3% (+0.2)

Belorus 3.6% (-0.8)

Russia 0.2% (+1.1) 

(Source: Trading Economics July 2023)

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The USA 

The USA continues to confound it's own middleclass east & west coast metropolitan liberals (mainly because they have no concept outside their own little organic wholegrain vegan gender & race obsessed worlds and can't grasp that significant chunks of US society can't stand them).  Donald Trump goes from strength-to-strength in the race for the 2024 Presidentials and is even neck-and-neck with Biden in the Democrat stronghold of New York, where they are 43% a piece.  New York is one of the Democrats 'Big Three' along with Chicago & Illinois.   Across the country, they are also running level, which because of the complexities of the US Electoral College system and how Trump's vote breaks down at a state level, would see Trump win the Presidency by quite a margin.   Bizarrrely,  the majority of American voters now believe Trump is the victim of a witch hunt (I say bizarrely because a large number of working class Democrats now view him not as the anti-Christ personified, but as a victim of an elitist establishment and who was actually right in what he was saying would happen at the last Presidentials if Biden won).  Trump - ever the showman, after this latest round of rubbish against him commenced quipped at his press conference 'One more indictment and I'm home and dry for the Presidency'.   The figures and movement patterns suggest that he is probably correct.

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Germany

The far-Right AfD continues to bounce between leading and second place in the polls.  This is a backlash to the immigration problems that Germany is undergoing along with a failing economy, with 'Der Blob' saying they need more immigration to offset the demographic cliff-edge to which they are hurtling, while the mainstream populace are saying enough is enough unless you build all the housing and infrastructure first before they are allowed in, you force these people to integrate on acceptance, adopt the German way of life whether they like it or not, make no demands from the welfare system until they have contributed for a sufficient length of time, they secularise religiously and they leave their culture where they came from and not bring it with them, with the state intervening if they won't and throwing them back out.  Net Zero is also playing large, again with 'Der Blob' - incompliance with EU desires, wanting to crack on with it while the mainstream population want it slowing down to a realistic speed that does not reduce their standard of living or cost them more in anyway shape or form.  Mix in growing hostility to the cost of supporting the Ukraine war and the political scene becomes highly charged and toxic.

Across July there were 21 polls (Figures in brackets comparison to last month, from Right to Left)

AfD - 20.4% (-0.6)

CDU/CSU - 26.3% (+0.8)

FDP - 7.5% (+1.0)

Grune - 14.8% (+0.3)

SPD - 18.3% (-0.7)

Die Linke - 4.7% (-0.3)

(In simplistic UK terms,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, and Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)

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SPAIN

The Spanish General Election resuts took place last month and an overview of the results (or non-result as the case may be) can be seen here.

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