OPINION POLLING FOR SEPTEMBER 2023

 

Across SEPTEMBER there were 28 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-
Con 27.1% (+0.2) 
Lab  44.2% (-0.4) 
LDem 11.2  (+0.4) 
Grn 5.7% (+0.2) 
Rfm 6.2% (-0.5)
Oth 5.6% (+0.3)
Ave Lab lead over Con for July:-  16.91% (-1.19)

The Tories swung between 23-30%, Labour between 39-47% and the LDems between 9-14%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in 27 of the 28 polls and on one occasion showed a 24% lead (DeltaPoll, 11-15 Sep).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 10-24%

If a General Election were held on these SEPTEMBER figures:-  and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of* L417 (-5), C160 (+4), SNP27 (+1) , LD24 (nc), PC3 (nc), G1 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1   with Labour having a majority of 184 (although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 187.) 

(*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (244 polls)
Con 27.2%, Lab 45.4%, LDem 10.1%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.1%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.15%
Polling figures for September ( 28 polls)
Con 27.1%, Lab 44.2%, LDem 11.2%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 6.2%, Oth 5.6%

Lab lead over Con September: 16.91%

September was a strange month in UK politics with everyone more concerned with their forthcoming party conferences than actually running the country or opposing the government of the day.  Both the main parties flitted back and to from showing a bit of ankle to being all coy over a range of issues from HS2, boat-crossers, ECHR, shoplifters and the charitable status of public schools (for any US readers, a public school in the UK is private.  What you call public schools we refer to as state schools), inflation continues to fall, doctors & trains continue to strike and the Ukraine war rumbles on.

The government pulled the trigger for the next General Election (due no later than 28 Jan 2025) by watering-down and slowing down 'Net Zero', forcing Labour to U-turn over many of it's green policies.  This showed in the opinion polls with the Tories making increasing in-roads into the Labour lead for the last 8-10 days of September (28/43%) with some pollsters showing Labour's lead reduced to 'only' 10%.  Many commentators interpreted this as the tories aiming for 'going early', probably on 02 May next year alongside  the local elections in England.  Whatever the party conferences reveal will give a clearer indication of Tory intent.

Labour meanwhile continued obsessing with private education sticking to their plan to remove the 'charitable status' private schools so that the fees become liable for VAT.  An actually and seriously bonkers idea.  It won't bother rich people in the slightest,  it won't bother the legions of pupils from rich foreigners resident in this country, it will raise nothing from from rich foreigners who live abroad but send their kids here.  It will hit hard people who scrimp and save to send their kids to private schools - people such as middle ranking nurses, middle ranking police officers, corner shop owners etc etc.  And it will also result in the private schools withdrawing thir scholarship schemes for children from deprived backgrounds.  The only good thing about the idea is that if we were ever stupid enough to rejoin the EU,  it would have to be removed again to comply with EU Directives banning vAT from being charged on anything connected to eduation.

More economic date has confirmed that the OBR's 'doom & gloom' forecasts for the impact of covid and the recovery, were wildly wide of the mark and that not only was the uK's recover NOT the worst in the G7+EU, but it was substantially faster and larger than Germany & France.

Inflation continues to fall despite the fact that oil prices have risen 25% in the past few months as OPEC continues to cut production in order to deliberately force the price up.

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SCOTLAND

There were two Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 36.5% (-0.2)
SCon:  15.5% (-0.8)
SLab: 31.0% (-2.7)
SLD: 7.5% (+0.8)

Oth: 9.5% (+2.5)

There were five Holyrood polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 40.0/29.0% (+1.3/-1.3)
SCon: 16.0/15.5% (-0.3/-0.2)
SLab: 29.0/27.5% (-3.3/-1.8)
SLD: 8.0/8.5% (+0.3/-0.2)
SGP: 3.0/12.5% (+0.5/+5.8)
Oth: 4.0/7.0% (+1.5/+3.2)

There were three IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 42.3% (-1.0),  No: 45.7% (-0.6), DK: 12.0% (+1.6)

(Yes: 47.6%, No: 52.4%)

(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%

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WALES

There were two Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 47.0% (+6.0)
Con: 20.5% (-3.5)
PC: 11.0% (-2.0)
LDem: 7.0% (nc)
Rfm 7.5% (-3.5)
Grn: 5.5% (+1.5)

Oth 1.5%

There were two Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

Lab 37.0/34.5% (-6.0/+3.5)
Con 22.5/18.5% (+1.5/-0.5)
Plaid 18.5/19.0% (-1.5/-3.0)
LDem 5.5/9.0% (-0.5/-1.0)
Grn: 5.0/6.0% (+2.0/nc)
Rfm 5.5/5.5% (-3.5/-4.5)
AWA  1.0/5.5% (-0.6/+0.5)  
UKIP -/1.0%  (nc/+1.0)

Oth 5.0/6.0% (+1.0/+1.0)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 22% (-11),  No: 56% (+3.0), DK: 22% (+8.0)

(Yes: 28.2%, No: 71.8%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.  Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.

There were no Westmister polls released during the month.

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were five polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 33.2% (-0.8)

FF: 18.4% (+0.4)

FG: 19.8% (+0.8)

GP: 3.8% (-1.2)

LP: 3.8% (-0.2)

SD: 4.4% (-0.6)

PBP-S: 2.2% (-0.8) 

AÚ: 2.0% (nc)

Oth/Ind: 12.4% (+2.4)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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Food inflation rates, August 2023 (published in September).

Food inflation continues to fall across most of the european area at various speeds dependent on background factors such as levels of import, predominant type of diet and energy sources.  For example food inflation remains so high  in the UK because our addiction to prepared foods and takeaway food, out-of-season produce, imported foods and total reluctance to exploit our own energy resources such as fracking gas.  You want cheaper food?  Behave like people on the continent do.  Simple meals, predominantly in-season and locally grown produce, mostly cooked from scratch at home.

Turkey 68.9% (-4.0)

Hungary 17.9% (-4.1)
Serbia 16.9% (-3.5)
United Kingdom 13.6% (-1.2) ⬅️

Slovakia 13.5% (-3.0)

Estonia 12.9% (-3.5) 

Poland 12.7% (-2.9)

Iceland 12.4% (nc)

Bulgaria 12.4% (-1.1)

Romania 11.9% (-4.5)

Belgium 11.4% (-2.0)
Faroe Islands 11.3% (-2.0)

Croatia 10.9% (-1.7)

Greece 10.8% (-1.6)

European Union (as a whole) 10.7% (-1.8)

Lithuania 10.7% (-1.9)
Malta 10.7% (+0.7)
Montenegro 10.5% (+0.4)

Spain 10.5% (-0.3)
Cyprus 10.0% (+0.1)
European Union (euro area only) 10.1% (-1.5)

Italy 9.9% (-1.0)

Austria 9.8% (-0.7)

France 9.6% (-3.1)

Moldova 9.6% (-2.0)

Netherlands 9.6% (-1.9)

Germany 9.1% (-1.8)

Sweden 9.0% (-1.5)

Norway 9.0% (+1.0)
Luxembourg 8.9% (-1.0)
Ukraine 8.4% (-4.9)

Ireland 8.2% (-0.6)

Latvia 8.2% (-3.0)

Bosnia 8.0% (-0.7)
Albania 7.9% (-1.6)
Czech Republic 7.9% (-1.6)

Finland 6.8% (-1.4)

Portugal 6.8% (-0.5)

Kosovo 5.5% (-0.6)

Denmark 5.0% (-1.6)

Switzerland 3.8% (-0.3)

Russia 3.6% (+1.4) 

Belorus 3.4% (-0.5)

Macedonia 0.3% (-1.9)
(Source: Trading Economics Sep 2023)

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The USA 

The Republicans continue go from strength-to-strength and Trump likewise within the Republican movement.   His lead in the race for the Republican nomination continuing to increase as is his position against Biden for the actually Presidency.  And the trend of Court cases against him increasing his lead is continuing as more and more ordinary Americans now consider him  a 'victim' of an establishment conspiracy.    He now has a clear lead amongst blue collar workers overall, the majority of trades union members, the majority of working class blacks and hispanics - all traditionally sectors the democrats would expect to be dominant.

Illegal immigration coming across the Mexican border is now at record levels and several southern towns and ciities in Texas, New Mexico & Arizona  are seriously considering hiring armed contract security to man checkpoints on their town and city boundaries to check people entering have ID and are legally allowed to be in the USA. Further north, the city of New York now has over 50,000 illegals sleeping rough on the streets due to all the night-shelters being full, on top of their normal 'resident' homeless and the situation now overwhelming even established charities such as the Salvation Army and the US Red Cross - with this being similar across other major cities in the north such as Chicago & Illinois.  With winter fast approaching and temperatures in the north of the USA regulalry falling below -10c with blizzards, a potential disaster is in the 'offing' 

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Germany

AfD cotinues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their position on major issue such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU.  This is evidenced by the SPD's continued reluctance to send missiles to Ukraine and more importantly, their recent suggestions that they may re-impose hard borders on the east of their country to try and stem the flow of illegals immigrants entering - something which is starting to become a massive red-hot political issue not just in Germany, but across the entire EU as it starts to panic about the sheer scale of what is slowly moving northwards in Africa & the Middle East..

AfD - 21.5% (nc)

CDU/CSU - 26.9% (+0.4)

FDP - 6.5% (-0.5)

Grune - 14.3% (-0.1)

SPD - 17.1% (-1.0)

Die Linke - 4.6% (-0.1)

(In UK terms, simply put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, and Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)