OPINION POLLING FOR MAY 2023

 

  

Across MAY there were 29 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 28.6% (-0.1) 

Lab  44.2% (-0.2) 
LDem 10.7  (+0.9) 
Grn 5.0% (+0.1) 
Rfm 5.3% (-0.6)
Oth 6.3% (n/c)
Ave Lab lead over Con for May:-  15.46% (-0.17)

The Tories swung between 26-31%, Labour between 51-41% and the LDems between 7-16%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 29 polls, breaching 50% in one of them  and on one occasion showed a 27% lead (Omnisis, 11-12 Apr) although this is almost certainly an 'outlier' as it is at massive variance compared to all the other polls conducted around that time.  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 11-27%.

If a General Election were held on these MAY figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L412, C167, SNP33 , LD16, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 174.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (158 polls)

Con 27.3%, Lab 45.8%, LDem 9.5%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 6.5%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.42%

Polling figures for May ( 29 polls)

Con 28.6%, Lab 44.2%, LDem 10.7%, Grn 5.0%, Rfm 5.3%, Oth 6.3%

Lab lead over Con: 15.46%

Polling is basically static with virtually no movement at all, possibly the mpact of the English Locals' that were held this month.  The results of the local elections held in May in both England & Northern Ireland, can be seen here for England &  here for Northern Ireland.

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SCOTLAND

There was very little movement in the polls in Scotland, which the SNP will be glad about as it probably signals they are through the worst support-wise now.

The SNP still see themselves as 'kingmakers' at the next General Election (and indeed major pollsters and analysts now believe the next election will result in a hung Parliament).  SNP EU accession spokesperson Alyn Smyth made a policy statement that the SNP will not prop-up a Labour government nor even lend it's vote to stop it falling unless it met two key demands beforehand.  They will not even open negotiations over further matters unless the key demands are met first and that unless Labour agree without trying to fudge it, not to bother even contacting them :-

1.  Immediate joining of the EU Single Market and a referendum to join the EU within the first Parliament.

2.  A guarenteed Scottish Independence Referendum, without any Westminster interference at all.

He added that from their perspective, Labour are no better than the Tories where Scotland is concerned and just as toxic for Scotland and that Labour are merely a convenience for the SNP to achieve it's aims.

(COMMENT.   The SNP have woken up to the fact that from their perspective it would be  financial and economic armageddon for an independent Scotland to join the EU or even just the Single Market, while the rest of the UK was outside it - they have to force the UK back into the EU first - or at the very least the Single Market in full, then move for independence otherwise they literally destroy 85% of their export market (the rest of UK) at a stroke and destroy their food and agriculture industry in the process. In addition, because they have no sovereign currency of their own, they would have to join the euro immediately on joining - and before being able to join would have to meet the debt-to-GDP ratio required which would require eye-wateringly massive austerity in Scotland.)

There were three Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 38.0% (+0.3)
SCon:  17.3% (-0.4)
SLab: 30.7% (+0.4)
SLD: 8.0% (-0.3)

Oth: 6.3% (+0.3)

There were three Holyrood polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 39.0/30.7% (+1.0/nc)
SCon: 18.0/18.3% (+1.3/+0.6)
SLab: 30.0/26.7% (+1.7/+2.4)
SLD: 8.0/7.3% (-1.0/-2.4)
SGP: 3.0/8.4% (+0.5/-1.9)
Oth: 2.0/2.8% (-2.2/-3.0)

There were three IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 45.7% (+4.0),  No: 48.0% (+0.7) DK: 6.3% (-4.7)

(Yes: 48.8%, No: 51.2%)

(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3% 

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WALES

There were two Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 46.0% (+2.0)
Con: 21.0% (-3.0)
PC: 10.5% (-1.5)
LDem: 8.0% (+1.0)
Rfm 9.0% (nc)
Grn: 4.0% (nc)

Oth 1.5%.(+1.5)

There were two Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

Lab 39.0/33.0% (-2.0/+1.0)
Con 20.5/18.5% (-0.5/-3.5)
Plaid 18.5/21.0% (-1.5/-2.0)
LDem 7.0/8.5% (+2.0/nc)
Grn: 4.0/5.5% (nc/-1.5)
Rfm 7.5/7.0% (-0.5/+1.0)
AWA  -/5.0% (-/+5.0)
UKIP -/1.0% (-/+1.0)

Oth 3.5/0.5% (+2.5/-7.5)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 26% (-3.0),  No: 56% (-4.0), DK:18% (+7.0)

(Yes: 31.7.%, No: 68.3%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock,  with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the new Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.

There were no Westmister polls released during the month.

There was no Assembly polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 33.3% (+0.3)

FF: 18.7% (+1.3)

FG: 19.0% (-0.7)

GP: 4.0% (-0.7)

LP: 4.0% (+0.3)

SD: 4.7% (-0.6)

S-PBP: 2.7% (+0.4) 

AÚ: 1.3% (-1.0)

Oth/Ind: 12.3% (+1.0)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

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BREXIT

As for joining the EU,  three pollsters (Redfield & Wilton and Savanta-ComRes & Omnisis) in recent months did very detailed polls regarding joining the EU.

They found that initially,  61% (RW), 60% (SCR) & 57% (OM) wanted to rejoin the EU - although one of those three only polled voters aged between 18 & 25 who were to young to vote in the BREXIT Referendum in the first place.

The pollsters then pointed out to the sample they polled that we cannot rejoin the EU as was,  we have to join under the new requirements and that would entail a commitment to abandon the pound and adopt the euro (handing control to Brussels of our gold reserve, the Bank of England and our budget). a commitment to Schengen (handing control of our borders and visa system),  massive austerity to get our debt-to-GDP ratio correct, large scale privatisations of public sector areas and opening of all public sector departments (including the NHS but exempting core civil service roles) to private sector contract bids on a level playing field, the economic liberalisation of the economy, our yearly payment would be higher (because we are now richer) and there would be no rebates, that under the new terms we would have to all but abandon the Commonwealth etc etc and that all this would have to be done as part of the Accession process (with no guarenetee that the EU would give final approval at the end), the sample groups were then re-polled and support for joining the EU amongst the exact same group of those originally polled dropped to less than 25%.

It seems that when initially asked, people want to reverse BREXIT back to how it was in 2016 (which isn't possible and cannot be done - the EU has changed dramatically since we left and that version of the EU no longer exists),  not join under new Accession terms (which is what we would have to do, with still no guarentee at the end of that period that the EU would approve the application anyway).  As an example of how long Accession takes now,   it is estimated Ukraine will need up to 20 years after the war stops to stand any chance of full compliance required to join and that is with an accelerated scheme designed especially for them. Switzerland has even abandoned it's application outright as they fundementally disagree with the level of control the EU will lever over their internal budget and the EU interference membership will cause to their banking system and methods.

YouGov also did a 'tracker' poll in which they claim 56% say it was 'wrong' to leave and 31% say it was 'right'.   This is a heavily loaded and very simplistic poll where they class unhappy Leavers - ie those who are unhappy with how it has been handled but still fundementally Leavers, as people who think it was 'wrong'.  A belief by the pollsters (and all are guilty of this to a degree) which of course is bollocks.

The two largest economies in the EU are Germany & France.  Germany is now officially in recession whereas the UK is now forecast to continue growing.  “Poor Brexit Britain” beats France on GDP per capita and has extended its lead in GDP terms over France since 2019 from a $65bn bigger economy to $287bn bigger economy.

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Food inflation rates, April 2023 (published in May).

Food inflation rates, April 2023 (published in May).  Food inflation is now starting to drop.  Although the UK appears to be lagging, it's reporting period is markedly different to most of the others and so is always playing 'catch-up' irrespective of whether the trend is up or down.

Turkey 53.9% (-14.0)

Hungary 39.0% (-5.0)

Slovakia 25.4% (-2.8)

Estonia 23.4% (-1.3)

Serbia 23.1% (-2.3)

Ukraine 22.2% (-4.6)

Lithuania 21.9% (-5.7)

Latvia 20.2% (-3.9)

Romania 19.8% (-1.8)

Poland 19.7% (-4.3)

United Kingdom 19.0% (-0.1) ⬅️

Czech Republic 17.3% (-6.2)

Sweden 16.9% (-2.8)

Germany 16.8% (-5.1)

Belgium 16.6% (nc)

Moldova 16.4% (-5.8)

European Union (as a whole) 16.4% (-3.3)

Bulgaria 15.9% (-2.8)

Croatia 15.8% (-1.2)

Netherlands 16.4% (-2.2)

Portugal 15.4% (-4.2)

European Union (euro area only) 15% (-2.5)

France 14.9% (-1.0)

Finland 13.7% (-2.5)

Austria 13.1% (-1.3)

Denmark 13.1% (-2.7)

Ireland 13.1% (nc)

Bosnia 12.8% (-6.2)

Malta 11.4% (-1.5)

Spain 12.9% (-3.6)

Iceland 12.3% (-0.2)

Italy 12.1% (-0.5)

Montenegro 11.6% (-2.9)

Greece 11.4% (-2.9)

Norway 10.6% (+2.0)

Albania 10.1% (-0.9)

Cyprus 6.7% (-0.4)

Belorus 6.1% (-3.1)

Switzerland 5.4% (-0.9)

Russia 0.0% (-2.6)

CPIH EU (as a whole) 6.5% (-0.1)

CPIH EU (euro area only) 5.6% (-0.1)

CPIH UK 7.8%  (-1.1)

(Source: Trading Economics May 2023)

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OTHER

There were elections in both Greece & Turkey,  the results of which can be seen here for Greece and here for Turkey.   Of note is that Greece will very shortly be having another election as the winning 'New Democracy' seek an outright majority.

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