The 2023 Northern Ireland Local Elections were held on 18 May 2023. The elections were delayed by two weeks to avoid overlapping with the coronation of HRH King Charles III. Following the elections, Sinn Fein became the largest party in local government for the first time, taking the largest number of council seats (144/462) and the largest share of the first preference vote (30.9%).
As is normal in Northern Irish politics, tribalism plays the significant part in the choice of a voter's parties and then socio-economic class plays a role within that choice - meaning very very few voters will switch directly from green to orange or vice versa. The council of Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon was the onlly council where the largest party changed across the 'divide', changing from DUP to Sinn Fein, although the council of Derry City & Strabane went from Sinn Fein/SDLP coalition to Sinn Fein.
The sudden 'growth' in Sinn Fein's vote share over the last two years demonstrates how - in PR-based elections using the Single Transferable Vote system such as the Locals and Assembly, they have learnt to game the system to their advantage and they spend a lot of time explaining to their supporters the most advantageous sequence in which to number the candidates in their particular areas.
On current trends, I expect several loyalist parties such as UUP, TUV & PUP - along with some marginal parties to amalgamate with DUP over the next few years. Similarly I wouldn't be surprised of SDLP didn't do like wise with Sinn Fein. I doubt whether the other miniscule nationalist parties - such as Aontu, IRSP etc would do likewise because they exist south of the border as well.
On these results, I fully expect Sinn Fein to mount a major campaign for a referendum to leave the United Kingdom within 10 years (re-unification is a separate matter and that would probably require a separate referendum between North & South). The UK government position remains one of 'while the majority wish to remain British, we stay. If the majority decide they no longer wish to be British, they are free to leave'. Personally, once the northern nationalists realise that re-unification means an awful lot of public sector jobs disappear & core council services would be privatised to align with the Republic and that they will kiss good bye to the NHS and move to the Republic's system of mutualised compulsory private health insurance, I doubt very much they will vote to leave the UK.
The sudden 'growth' in Sinn Fein's vote share over the last two years demonstrates how - in PR-based elections using the Single Transferable Vote system such as the Locals and Assembly, they have learnt to game the system to their advantage and they spend a lot of time explaining to their supporters the most advantageous sequence in which to number the candidates in their particular areas.
On current trends, I expect several loyalist parties such as UUP, TUV & PUP - along with some marginal parties to amalgamate with DUP over the next few years. Similarly I wouldn't be surprised of SDLP didn't do like wise with Sinn Fein. I doubt whether the other miniscule nationalist parties - such as Aontu, IRSP etc would do likewise because they exist south of the border as well.
On these results, I fully expect Sinn Fein to mount a major campaign for a referendum to leave the United Kingdom within 10 years (re-unification is a separate matter and that would probably require a separate referendum between North & South). The UK government position remains one of 'while the majority wish to remain British, we stay. If the majority decide they no longer wish to be British, they are free to leave'. Personally, once the northern nationalists realise that re-unification means an awful lot of public sector jobs disappear & core council services would be privatised to align with the Republic and that they will kiss good bye to the NHS and move to the Republic's system of mutualised compulsory private health insurance, I doubt very much they will vote to leave the UK.
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