ENGLISH LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS, MAY 2023

I thought I would take a quick look at the English local election results and try to put them in a bit of context.

The Tories took a serious drubbing, however Labour failed to make any significant headway on vote share compared to last year's local's.  Labour took 536 seats (well short of the 1500 they needed to take to be 100% on target to win the next election outright) and gained control of 22 extra councils.   The Tories lost 1058 seats (not as bad as their worst case scenario, but worse than the 800 losses they were hoping for) and lost control of 33 councils.  The Lib Dems put in a very solid performance taking 405 seats and gaining control of an extra 12 councils.  Statistically, the Greens performed best of all taking 241 seats (more than doubling their total) and taking control of one council - their first ever.

These were the first elections held in England under the new requirement for voters to show ID.  The impact of voter ID was negligable and just over half of the very very small number turned away with incorrect /no ID, returned later with it.  It wasn't a particulalrly high threshold anyway and people unable to meet it would struggle nowadays to register for a GP, claim benefits, attend a job interview, open a bank account, take out a mortgage/tenancy or credit agreement or even get a job as a minimum waged security guard on a supermarket doorway.  Most of those who turned up with no ID were believed to be mostly  No2ID activists and such like 'chancing their arm' and hoping to cause a scene.  Northern Ireland has had voter ID since 2002 after it was introduced by the then Westminster Labour government at the insistance of Sinn Fein, SDLP and the DUP.  SNP-run Scotland & Labour-run Wales were planning to introduce it anyway for their next regional & council elections, so England was very much the odd man out not just in the UK  but across most of Europe as a whole.  Comparing the number of people on the Eletoral Register for the areas where voting took place with  the number of people who were turned away and failed to return later shows 0.18% of those entitled to vote in these elections didn't because they did not have the required ID at all or did not return with it later.

Tally for seats/councils was:- 

(correct as at time of publication.  There
were still 2 dozen or so seats being counted)

The turn-out - usually low in local elections anyway,  was absolutely dire and averaged just 30%, with some wards even lower than that.  In my area for example, the neighbouring ward of Goole South recorded a turn-out of just 14% and some areas were even lower than that.

These councils were last contested in 2019 (and to a greater extent 2015 & 2011) and direct comparisons in vote share are below:-

There were local elections in some areas last year as well and vote share for those in comparison to 2023 was:-

Although turn-outs at local level are always poor in comparison to turn outs for General Elections (and this one was particularly dire),  it's always worth comparing where the parties stand in comparison to the latest round of opinion polls:-

In addition, there were 4 Mayoral elections.  Bedford went from Lib Dem to Tory, Middlesboro from Independent to Labour, whilst Leicester & Mansfields were Labour holds.

Two factors have proved to be very evident here - Tory protest voters switching to the Lib Dems (these usually 'return to the fold' come election time), and Tory switchers going to Reform and even the Greens (these are harder to win back as these are usually ideaology/doctrine-related).  There is no great appetite for Labour despite their very well deserved 'crowing'.

Smart money is now being staked on the next General Election producing a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party but without a majority.


Next Up, Northern Ireland

The Northern Ireland 2023 local elections - delayed two weeks to avoid clashing with the Coronation and 'inflamming local sensitivities',  will take place on the 18th May and involve all 11 councils.  Of significance here is that their system uses the Single Transferable Vote (STV) method, with voters numbering candidates in order of preference.   It will also be the first election to be held in UK where voters can vote on-line.

Their current council situation is:-

 

a. Reduced to 12 due to defections.

b. Reduced to 14 due to defections.

c. Increased to 16 due to defections.

d. Reduced to 13 due to defections.

Current polling is (figures in brackets show movement from last local elections in 2019):-

SF: 29.8% (+6.6)
DUP: 23.0% (-1.1)
APNI: 14.5% (+3.3)
UUP: 12.8% (-1.3)
SDLP: 8.3% (-3.7)
TUV: 5.0% (+2.8)
GPNI: 2.7% (+0.6.)
Oth: 5.2% (-5.6)
(Unionist 40.8%, Nationalist 38.1%)