Across APRIL there were 27 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-
Con 28.7% (+1.2)
Lab 44.4% (-1.6)
LDem 9.8 (+0.9)
Grn 4.9% (-0.3)
Rfm 5.9% (+0.3)
Oth 6.3% (-0.5)
Ave Lab lead over Con for April:- 15.63% (-2.92)
The Tories swung between 25-32%, Labour between 41-48% and the LDems between 8-12%. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 26 polls and on one occasion showed a 23% lead (Omnisis, 12-13 Apr). Labour led in every poll with leads of between 12-23%.
If a General Election were conducted on these APRIL figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L414, C165, SNP34 , LD15, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 178 (refer to last month's figure to see how a shift of a couple of percent alters things considerably).
Another month, another resignation, this time nasty glarer Dominic Raab. The Civil Service 'blob' now slithers and slops on to it's next target - Alok Sharma (work quality expectations too high) and is even starting to devour itself lining-up a go at top civil servant Simon Case (the Cabinet Secretary), for co-operating with the tories basically, which is actually his job.
Labour has it's own problems with two Inquiries into Sue Gray (of Partygate fame) due this month and both expected to find heavily against her involvement with Labour, delaying her appointment as Starmer's Chief-Of-Staff by a year at least and possibly longer. Starmer had rather naively publicly staked his integrity on there being no involvement between her and his party while 'Partygate' was being compiled. Both reports are expected to find the exact opposite by quite some margin. He will of course deny all knowledge (as he normally does) sacrificing a flunky ot two in the process, before adding a couple of years down the line "I accept full responsibility" (as he normally does), somehow deluding himself that accepting full responsibility consists of waiting a couple of years or so then merely saying it. It doesn't at this level of politics - acceptance means you resign, or people no longer find you credible.
LDem 9.8 (+0.9)
Grn 4.9% (-0.3)
Rfm 5.9% (+0.3)
Oth 6.3% (-0.5)
Ave Lab lead over Con for April:- 15.63% (-2.92)
The Tories swung between 25-32%, Labour between 41-48% and the LDems between 8-12%. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 26 polls and on one occasion showed a 23% lead (Omnisis, 12-13 Apr). Labour led in every poll with leads of between 12-23%.
If a General Election were conducted on these APRIL figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L414, C165, SNP34 , LD15, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 178 (refer to last month's figure to see how a shift of a couple of percent alters things considerably).
Another month, another resignation, this time nasty glarer Dominic Raab. The Civil Service 'blob' now slithers and slops on to it's next target - Alok Sharma (work quality expectations too high) and is even starting to devour itself lining-up a go at top civil servant Simon Case (the Cabinet Secretary), for co-operating with the tories basically, which is actually his job.
Labour has it's own problems with two Inquiries into Sue Gray (of Partygate fame) due this month and both expected to find heavily against her involvement with Labour, delaying her appointment as Starmer's Chief-Of-Staff by a year at least and possibly longer. Starmer had rather naively publicly staked his integrity on there being no involvement between her and his party while 'Partygate' was being compiled. Both reports are expected to find the exact opposite by quite some margin. He will of course deny all knowledge (as he normally does) sacrificing a flunky ot two in the process, before adding a couple of years down the line "I accept full responsibility" (as he normally does), somehow deluding himself that accepting full responsibility consists of waiting a couple of years or so then merely saying it. It doesn't at this level of politics - acceptance means you resign, or people no longer find you credible.
Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019:
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%
Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%
Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%
Polling figures for 2023 (128 polls)
Con 27.0%, Lab 46.2%, LDem 9.2%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.6%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 19.16%
Polling figures for Apr ( 27 polls)
Turkey 67.9% (-1.4)
MAY LOCAL ELECTIONS - THU 04 MAY
Voters in some parts of England and Northern Ireland will choose new councillors in May. The May local elections a few months ago were looking like an absolute nightmare for the Tories with around 8,000 council seats up for grabs at exactly the wrong time for them. Since then, Labour's poll lead had reduced significantly. For Labour to be a 100% nailed-on certainty for the next election with a healthy majority, they need to gain around 1,500 - 2,000 of them on top of what they already hold given the geographic location of where these are and the fact that the last time these were up for grabs 4 years ago, people were turning against Corbyn. The Tories a few months ago were of the belief they would lose 1,500 across the board to different parties, however analysts believe they will now only lose as few as 800. As we go to print, the very latest and final predictions are saying Labour will only gain around 400 seats - which not to put to fine a point on it, would be a disaster for Starmer's ambitions. They also believe that Labour will fare badly in several councils around the edges of Greater London because of Khan's congestion charge and the way it will affect commuters from oputside, and likewise Birmingham and Manchester - where even Mayor Burnham delaying it doesn't seem to be placating the outright opposition to it. . Be an interesting Friday as results start to come in. That said, you can never read to much into local elections - turn-outs are always abysmal (usually around the 30% mark at best), in some areas people will be voting because of specific local issues (such as congestion charging, immigration centres etc), which will not be an issue at a subsequent General Election, whereas other will be voting over national issues even though they have nothing to do with politcs at this level. Even 'feel good' bounces (such as major public and sporting events) have significant distorting effects because of such low turn outs.
The last time this tranche were voted on was May 2019. Below is the 2019 result and the prediction for 2023.
There was very little movement in the polls in Scotland, which the SNP will be glad about as it probably signals they are through the worst support-wise now.
There were three Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
SNP: 38.0/30.7% (-1.6/-1.3)
SCon: 16.7/17.7% (-0.3/-0.5)
SLab: 28.3/24.3% (-1.9/-2.7)
SLD: 9.0/9.7% (+1.4/+1.7)
SGP: 2.5/10.3% (+-1.8/-0.3)
Oth: 4.2/5.8% (+2.9/+1.6)
(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).
(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).
(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%
Yes: 29% (+11.0), No: 60% (+5.0), DK:11% (-16.0)
(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)
Con 28.7%, Lab 44.4%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 4.9%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.3%
Lab lead over Con: 15.63%
Food inflation rates, March 2023 (published in April). The British Retail Consortium believe that UK inflation will drop sharply from next month. I remain to be convinced:-
Turkey 67.9% (-1.4)
Hungary 44.8% (-1.0)
Slovakia 28.2% (+0.4)
Lithuania 27.6% (-2.6)
Ukraine 26.8% (-5.0)
Serbia 25.4% (+0.8)
Serbia 25.4% (+0.8)
Estonia 24.7% (-0.5)
Latvia 24.1% (-1.2)
Poland 24.0% (nc)
Czech Republic 23.5% (-0.5)
Moldova 22.2% (-4.3)
Moldova 22.2% (-4.3)
Romania 21.6% (-0.8)
Germany 21.2% (-0.6)
Bulgaria 21.0% (-2.8)
Sweden 19.7% (-1.3)
European Union (as a whole) 19.7% (+0.6)
Portugal 19.6% (-1.8)
United Kingdom 19.1% (+1.1) ⬅️
Bosnia 19.0% (-1.8)
Netherlands 17.8% (-0.1)
Croatia 17.4% (+0.4)
Belgium 16.6% (-0.4)
Spain 16.5% (-10.1)
Finland 16.2% (-0.1)
Denmark 15.8% (+1.0)
France 14.9% (-1.1)
Austria 14.5% (-1.7)
Montenegro 14.5% (-9.3)
Greece 14.3% (-0.5)
Austria 14.5% (-1.7)
Montenegro 14.5% (-9.3)
Greece 14.3% (-0.5)
Ireland 13.1% (nc)
Malta 12.9% (-0.3)
Malta 12.9% (-0.3)
Italy 12.6% (-0.6)
Iceland 12.5% (+0.2)
Albania 11.0% (-2.5)
Belorus 9.2% (-4.1)
Albania 11.0% (-2.5)
Belorus 9.2% (-4.1)
Norway 8.6% (-0.2)
Cyprus 7.1% (-2.5)
Switzerland 6.3% (-0.2)
Russia 2.6% (-6.7)
Switzerland 6.3% (-0.2)
Russia 2.6% (-6.7)
(Source: Trading Economics April 2023)
MAY LOCAL ELECTIONS - THU 04 MAY
Voters in some parts of England and Northern Ireland will choose new councillors in May. The May local elections a few months ago were looking like an absolute nightmare for the Tories with around 8,000 council seats up for grabs at exactly the wrong time for them. Since then, Labour's poll lead had reduced significantly. For Labour to be a 100% nailed-on certainty for the next election with a healthy majority, they need to gain around 1,500 - 2,000 of them on top of what they already hold given the geographic location of where these are and the fact that the last time these were up for grabs 4 years ago, people were turning against Corbyn. The Tories a few months ago were of the belief they would lose 1,500 across the board to different parties, however analysts believe they will now only lose as few as 800. As we go to print, the very latest and final predictions are saying Labour will only gain around 400 seats - which not to put to fine a point on it, would be a disaster for Starmer's ambitions. They also believe that Labour will fare badly in several councils around the edges of Greater London because of Khan's congestion charge and the way it will affect commuters from oputside, and likewise Birmingham and Manchester - where even Mayor Burnham delaying it doesn't seem to be placating the outright opposition to it. . Be an interesting Friday as results start to come in. That said, you can never read to much into local elections - turn-outs are always abysmal (usually around the 30% mark at best), in some areas people will be voting because of specific local issues (such as congestion charging, immigration centres etc), which will not be an issue at a subsequent General Election, whereas other will be voting over national issues even though they have nothing to do with politcs at this level. Even 'feel good' bounces (such as major public and sporting events) have significant distorting effects because of such low turn outs.
- Estimated Labour lead of 5% over the Conservatives in local council seats up for election in May, compared with a Conservative lead of 3% in the same seats in May 2019
- Labour to gain over 400 council seats
- Conservatives to lose over 250 council seats
- Labour to gain majority control over 10 councils
- Conservatives to lose majority control of four councils
The last time this tranche were voted on was May 2019. Below is the 2019 result and the prediction for 2023.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCOTLAND
The problems dogging the SNP continue, with fresh investigations into a further 'missing' £400,000 over the years.
There was very little movement in the polls in Scotland, which the SNP will be glad about as it probably signals they are through the worst support-wise now.
There were three Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
SNP: 37.7% (-1.7)
SCon: 17.7% (-0.5)
SLab: 30.3% (-0.9)
SLD: 8.3% (+2.3)
Oth: 6.0% (+0.8)
SCon: 17.7% (-0.5)
SLab: 30.3% (-0.9)
SLD: 8.3% (+2.3)
Oth: 6.0% (+0.8)
There were three Holyrood polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-
SNP: 38.0/30.7% (-1.6/-1.3)
SCon: 16.7/17.7% (-0.3/-0.5)
SLab: 28.3/24.3% (-1.9/-2.7)
SLD: 9.0/9.7% (+1.4/+1.7)
SGP: 2.5/10.3% (+-1.8/-0.3)
Oth: 4.2/5.8% (+2.9/+1.6)
There were three IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
Yes: 41.7% (-2.0), No: 47.3% (-0.8) DK: 11.0% (+2.8)
(Yes: 46.9%, No: 53.1%)
(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).
(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).
(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WALES
There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
Lab: 44.0% (-6.0)
Con: 24.0% (+4.5)
PC: 12.0% (-1.0)
LDem: 7.0% (+2.5)
Rfm 9.0% (+0.5)
Grn: 4.0% (+1.0)
Lab: 44.0% (-6.0)
Con: 24.0% (+4.5)
PC: 12.0% (-1.0)
LDem: 7.0% (+2.5)
Rfm 9.0% (+0.5)
Grn: 4.0% (+1.0)
Oth 0.0%.(-0.5)
There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-
Lab 41/32% (-2.0/-7.0)
Con 21/22% (+3.0/+4.0)
Plaid 20/23% (nc/+3.0)
LDem 5/8% (+1.0/+3.0)
Grn: 4/7% (nc/+2.0)
Rfm 8/7% (-1.0/+1.0)
AWA -/-% (-/-)
UKIP -/-% (-/-)
Oth 1/8% (-6.0/+7.0)Con 21/22% (+3.0/+4.0)
Plaid 20/23% (nc/+3.0)
LDem 5/8% (+1.0/+3.0)
Grn: 4/7% (nc/+2.0)
Rfm 8/7% (-1.0/+1.0)
AWA -/-% (-/-)
UKIP -/-% (-/-)
There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
Yes: 29% (+11.0), No: 60% (+5.0), DK:11% (-16.0)
(Yes: 28.1%, No: 71.9%)
(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%
(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%
Lab: 39.9/36.2%
Con: 26.1/25.1%
Plaid: 20.3/20.7%
LDem: 4.9/4.3%
Grn: 1.6/3.6%
Ref: 1.5/1.1%
AWA*: 1.5/3.7%
UKIP: 0.8/1.6%
Propel: 0.6/0.9%
(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)
(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NORTHERN IRELAND
The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the new Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol. The DUP will not accept the Framework and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped and while the DUP is the largest Unionist party that is all there is to it unless No 10 bites the bullet and dissolves the Assembly. Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though. For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again.
NORTHERN IRELAND
The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the new Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol. The DUP will not accept the Framework and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped and while the DUP is the largest Unionist party that is all there is to it unless No 10 bites the bullet and dissolves the Assembly. Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though. For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again.
There were no Westmister polls released during April.
There was one Assembly poll released during April (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (first preference):-
SF: 29.0% (-1.6)
DUP: 25.0% (+1.1)
APNI: 13.0% (-2.4)
UUP: 11.0% (+0.3)
SDLP: 7.0% (+0.3)
TUV: 7.0% (+2.2)
S-PBP: 1.0% (-1.2)
Oth: 7.0% (+1.1)
DUP: 25.0% (+1.1)
APNI: 13.0% (-2.4)
UUP: 11.0% (+0.3)
SDLP: 7.0% (+0.3)
TUV: 7.0% (+2.2)
S-PBP: 1.0% (-1.2)
Oth: 7.0% (+1.1)
(Unionist 43.0%, Nationalist 37.0%)
(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)
(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%,
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%,
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.
There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-SF: 33.0% (+2.3)
FF: 17.7% (-0.3)
FG: 19.7% (-2.3)
GP: 4.7% (+0.7)
LP: 3.7% (-0.3)
SD: 5.3% (-1.3)
S-PBP: 2.3% (nc)
AÚ: 2.3% (-0.3)
Oth/Ind: 11.3% (+1.1)
(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth/Ind: 13.5%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
'God Save The King & Queen'
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