OPINION POLLING FOR MAY 2022

 

             

Across May there were 24 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month). 

Con 33.3% (-0.7) 

Lab 39.3% (-0.7)

LDem 11.3% (+1.5)

Grn  5.6% (+0.3)

Rfm 3.0% (-0.1)

Oth 7.5% (-0.3)

Ave Lab lead over Con for April: 5.96% (-0.04)

The month started with political eyes focused on the local elections.   At the start of the campaign, Labour were forecast to make huge gains (600+ with the Tories losing 800-1200).   However as the campaign wore on, their lead over the Tories slowly fell away and once the dust settled, Starmer had done slightly worse than both Corbyn and Miliband before him in similar elections.   In England for example, of 4,411 seats being contested, Labour ended with 22 more than they started,  66 more in Wales and actually lost one Mayoral election to an old enemy - extreme-Leftist  Lutfer Rahman and his party 'ASPIRE' in London's Tower Hamlets (ASPIRE also took a majority on the Borough council), while the Tories gained the new Mayoralty of Croydon.  The real winners as such were the LDems who picked up around 800 seats.  The turn-out was appallingly low at less than 25%.  Nationally Labour increased it's seat share by around 90, and the tories lost around 400

As for the national opinion polls, Tory support swung between 31-36%, Labour's between 36-43% and the LDems between 9-14%.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% only nine times during the 24 polls (their worst tally for some months) and on one occasion showed an 11% lead (SavantaComRes, 27-29 May).but bizarrely, a YouGov done in the same period only had them at 3% (an average of the two is roughly in line with the consensus among other polls).   Labour led in every poll  with leads of between 1%-11%.

If a General Election were conducted on these MAY figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L311, C253, SNP50, LD12, PC4 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and Labour needing a coalition of  minimum of the LDems and Green - however the LDems demands that we re-enter the EU - including the adoption of the €uro and preferably without even a referendum & the current voting system scrapped and replaced with PR,  combined with Green's demands that the move to net zero is accelerated etc, make the likelihood of a stable coalition remote at best, especially when you factor in that the LDems would expect Rayner's Deputy slot and several other Cabinet posts. As a result, Labour would probably choose to limp on with a minority Government as the next alterntive - a coalition with the SNP, is politically unacceptable.

There are three by-elections coming shortly (the vacant Tory seats of Wakefield & Tiverton and almost certainly the Independent seat of Leicester East) with the Tories expected to do badly in all three, on current forecasted and expected low turn-outs combined with Labour & LDems not competing against each other in order to 'capitalise' on each others vote share.   If any move will be made to oust Johnson as leader by his party, Tory party rules state that at least 15% of Tory MPs must write a no-confidence letter to make a leadership challenge possible.  This currently equates to 54 MPs needing to submit a letter thus forcing a vote.   It should be remembered that when Thatcher found herself in a similar position and won her vote of No Confidence with 60% of the vote, she still decided to stand down, Theresa May likewise.. So it's not just winning, but winning massively that seems to count within the Tory party itself.  The favourites within the Tory party to replace Johnson as leader should he go are (in order) Nadhim Zahawi, Liz Truss, Michael Gove, Ben Wallace.  That said,  the 'rebels' do not enjoy widespread support and cannot even put together a united & unified front - for example the two main camps appear to be led by Andrew Bridgen - a hard Brexiteer,  and Tobias Ellwood - who wants to rejoin the EU's Single Market.  Neither has the time of day for the other and they despise each other more than they don't like Johnson.

Economically, Ukraine is now starting to bite and bite hard in the western economies and this will progessively worsen as the summer rolls on and politicians all over the free world will be hoping that their voters have enough brain cells to work out that there is nothing that any government can do except largely sit it out (or intervene directly and risk an almost certain nuclear war).  Sanctions on Russia and in turn the Russian blockade on Ukraine combined with their workforce now serving in the Ukrainian Army, are now starting to bite us as much as Russia as alternative suppliers for basic commodities such as eggs, chicken, wheat (bread, biscuits, cake, flour)  barley (beer, animal feed), white fish, sunflower products,  timber, steel, concrete, aluminium, silicon chips etc etc do not exist or if the do, not in sufficient quantity to meet demand (which is what is driving inflation - to few goods in comparison to demand and money chasing them),  and large tracts of the Third World - in particular the highly unstable middle east (think oil, think Israeli security) and north Africa (think refugees into southern europe, salads, liquified natural gases, textiles, gold) are looking at severe and widespread food shortages.  Meanwhile (as if on cue) Trades Unions right across central & western Europe are becoming increasingly belligerent and seemingly unable to corelate basic economic facts such as above or near inflationary pay rises without increases in worker productivity actually make the situation worse (as happened in the mid-1970's).

We will now enter the summer season where by tradition, Her Majesty's Government of the day pretends it has a grip of world events which in reality are beyond it's control, while Her Majesty's loyal Opposition of the day, pretend that if they were in power they could get a different outcome.  The summer ends with the usual party conference pantomimes and sing-along - the 'Red Flag' in Liverpool (while waving an assortment of arab terrorist flags, EU flags, assorted gender-based stripey things & taking the knee) and probably 'God Save The Queen' in Birmingham (with plenty of Unions Jacks, flags of the Home Nations, colourful waistcoats, dickie bows and a tear in the eye).

As we go to press,  the government of Estonia has fallen due to allegedly being undermined by Kremlin backed ethnic-russians in their parliament,  or working in government administrative departments etc deliberately sabotaging things (bit like our civil service then LOL).   Estonia is a member of the EU and NATO and uses the €uro as it's currency.  The last thing the EU, and NATO want or need at the moment is a member state becoming highly unstable politically and starting to do a 'Yugoslavia'.  Nor will the European Central Bank relish the idea of trying to stabilise the economy of a €uro user in the current financial climate.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (119 polls)

Con 33.6%, Lab 39.6%, LDem 10.3%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.3%, Oth 7.6%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 5.92%

Polling figures for May (24 polls)

Con 33.3%, Lab 39.3%, LDem 11.3%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.0%, Oth 7.5%

Lab lead over Con May: 5.96%

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SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during May.  They averaged as follows:-

SNP: 44.0%, SCon: 19.7%,  SLab: 23.0%, SLD: 7.7%, SGP: 3.0%, Oth: 2.6%

(GE 2019 - SNP: 45%, SCon: 25.1%, SLab: 18.6%, SLDem: 9.5%, SGrn: 1.0%, Oth: 0.8%).

There were also three Holyrood polls released during May.  They averaged (const/list) as follows:-

SNP: 45.3/35% , SCon: 19.3/19.0%,  SLab: 22.7/21.3%, SLD: 7.0/8.0%, SGP: 3.0/11.7%, Oth: 2.7/5.0%

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLDem: 6.9/5.1%, SGP: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

There were three IndyRef polls released, averaging:

Yes: 43.8%, No: 47.0%, DK: 9.2%

(Y:48 N:52)

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WALES

There were no polls released during the period. 

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NORTHERN IRELAND

Northern Ireland held it's Stormont election.   As the pollsters forecast, Sinn Fein became the largest party but barely moving and finishing with the same number of seats as it started with, in the main because the unionist vote is now split between three parties (DUP/UUP/TUV), but Sinn Fein is not and is nowhere near being in an outright majority.

Northern Ireland Assembly 2022 Results:-
(Comparisons to last Assembly Elections 2017 in brackets)

First preference:-
Sinn Fein 29.0% (+1.1)
DUP 21.3% (-6.7)
NIAP 13.5% (+4.5)
UUP 11.2% (-1.7)
SDLP 9.1% (-2.9)
TUV 7.6% (+5.1)
PBP 1.2% (-0.6)

Total Seats (90)
Sinn Fein 27 (n/c)
DUP 25 (-3)
NIAP 17 (+9)
UUP 9 (-1)
SDLP 8 (-4)
TUV 1 (+1)
PBP 1 (+1)
(Ind 2 (+1))

If anyone did well, it was the Northern Ireland Alliance Party (NIAP) and True Unionist Voice (TUV).  As expected, the DUP (and TUV), refused to take their seats and elect a Speaker - honouring their main election pledge, and as a result the Assembly cannot sit.    The system has a complicated set-up to ensure that neither side can ever get the better of the other.   All political parties in Northern Ireland have to register as either Nationalist, Uionist or non-Aligned.   Likewise, all MLAs have to register in the Member's Book as beng one of those three choices as they take their seat.    The First Minister always comes from the largest party.  The Deputy First Minister then comes from the largest party on the other side of the sectarian divide.   Then for a law to pass in Stormont, a majority of nationalist MLAs and a majority of Unionist MLAs must vote in favour.   BUT.......before Stormont can sit, it has to elect a Speaker  - and likewise said Speaker must gain the support of a majority of MLAs from both nationalist & unionist communities.   And with DUP & TUV holding 26 of the 35 unionist seats,  that is impossible.  As a result, the posts of Speaker, First Minister and Deputy First Minister cannot be filled, a government cannot be formed and the Assembly cannot sit.

Stormont it should be remembered,  is the most devolved Home Nation of the three with devolutionary powers and is basically semi-autonomous.
 

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were four polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):-

SF: 35.0% (+1.5)

FF: 17.8% (+0.8)

FG: 20.8% (-0.7)

GP: 3.0% (-0.5)

LP: 4.0% (n/c)

SD: 3.8% (-1.7)

S-PBP: 3.0% (+0.5) 

AÚ: 2.0% (-0.5)

Oth/Ind: 10.6% (+0.6)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

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