OPINION POLLING FOR JUNE 2022

 

Across JUNE there were 26 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month). 

Con 32.9% (-0.4) 

Lab 39.2% (-0.1)

LDem 12.2% (+0.9)

Grn  5.5% (-0.1)

Rfm 3.4% (+0.4)

Oth 6.9% (-0.6)

Ave Lab lead over Con for April: -6.31% (+0.35)

The month started with political eyes focused on the two by-elections.   At the start of the campaign, Labour & the LDems were forecast to take both seats with ease and by a considerable margin, especially as there was an agreement that the LDems would only field a paper candidate in Wakefield and not campaign and Labour would do likewise in Tiverton.   As predicted, they took both seats but the data behind was very revealing and rather than disaffected Tories jumping ship, what seems to have happened is the Tory vote just stayed at home. 

As for the national opinion polls, Tory support swung between 31-34%, Labour's between 36-42% and the LDems between 9-15%.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% twelve times during the 26 polls and on two occasions showed an 11% lead (SavantaComRes, 17-19 Jun & IpsosMORI 22-29 Jun).   Labour led in every poll  with leads of between 2%-11%.

If a General Election were conducted on these JUNE figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L311, C249, SNP50, LD16, PC4, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with neither side being able to form a majority government and Labour needing a coalition of a minimum of the LDems  - however the LDems demands that we re-enter the EU - including the adoption of the €uro and preferably without even a referendum & the current voting system scrapped and replaced with PR,  especially when you factor in that the LDems would expect Rayner's Deputy slot (unless Durham Police get there first) and several other key Cabinet posts including Environment. As a result, Labour would probably choose to limp on with a minority Government as the next alterntive - a coalition with the SNP, is politically unacceptable.  It is also  worthy of note that Starmer has unequivocally ruled out re-joining the EU and even re-joining the Single Market or the Customs Union and has also categorically ruled out any form of deal with the SNP - so he appears to have burnt down any bridges with both the LDems & the SNP.

Looking forward, July looks like it may be a seismic month with the leaderships of Tory, Labour & the SNP all in decidedly shakey and uncertain positions along with the coalition government in our closest neighbour - the Republic of Ireland.  Inflation is running rife across both the UK & Europe, and because of low growth there is little that can be done to fight it without sparking a major recession.  Interestingly,  Nomura - who are global leaders in massive investments in world governments, huge infrastructure projects  and the financing of global corporations,  expect western Europe and North America to enter recession later this year and remain there until late next year at the earliest.  Recession plus inflation equals the dreaded stagflation (the only real nightmare of all politicians) and already the key indicators of that - the fall of sterling and the euro against the dollar and the rise in gold bullion prices, are falling into place.  

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (145 polls)

Con 33.5%, Lab 39.5%, LDem 10.6%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.3%, Oth 7.5%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 5.98%

Polling figures for Jun (26 polls)

Con 32.9%, Lab 39.2%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 3.4%, Oth 6.9%

Lab lead over Con Jun: 6.31%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during June.  They averaged as follows:-

SNP: 44.0%, SCon: 19.7%,  SLab: 23.0%, SLD: 7.7%, SGP: 3.0%, Oth: 2.6%

There was also one Holyrood poll released during June.  It was as follows (const/list):-

SNP: 42/30% , SCon: 17/18%,  SLab: 23/22%, SLD: 7/7%, SGP: -/12%, Oth: 11/11%

There were three IndyRef polls released, averaging:

Yes: 42.7%, No: 45.7%, DK: 11.6%

(Y:48.3% N:51.7%)

(GE 2019:-

SNP: 45%, SCon: 25.1%, SLab: 18.6%, SLDem: 9.5%, SGrn: 1.0%, Oth: 0.8%).

(HOLYROOD 2021:-
SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLDem: 6.9/5.1%, SGP: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014
Yes: 37.8%, No: 46.8%, no vote: 15.4%

Y:44.7%,  N:55.3% )

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month.

Lab: 41%, Con 26%, PC: 16%, LDem 7%, Grn 4%, Rfm 4%, Oth 2%

The Senedd voting system will change for the next election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of  first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a closed party list PR based system on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Delegates as opposed to representatives.  

There was one Senedd poll released during the month based on this proposed new system  as follows:-

Lab: 31%, Con 21%, PC: 24%, LDem 5%, Grn 6%, Rfm 6%, AWA 6%, Oth 1%

(GE2019 

Lab 40.9%, Con 36.1%, PC 9.9%, LDem 6.0%, Grn 1.0%, BXP 5.4%, Oth 0.7%)

(Senedd 2021, Const/List
Lab 39.9/36.2%, Con 26.1/25.1%, Plaid 20.3/20.7%, LDem 4.9/4.3%, Grn: 1.6/3.6%, AWA 1.5/3.7%, Ref 1.5/1.1%, UKIP 0.8/1.6%, Propel 0.6/0.9%)

(AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

                                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

No polling released during the month.

(GE2019
SF 22.8%, DUP 30.6%, NIAP 16.8%, UUP 11.7%, SDLP 14.9%, Oth 3.2%)

(Assembly 2022 :-
SF 29.0%,  DUP 21.3%, NIAP 13.5%, UUP 11.2%, SDLP 9.1%, TUV 7.6%, PBP 1.2%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were three polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):-

SF: 36.0% (+1.0)

FF: 17.7% (-0.1)

FG: 20.7% (-0.1)

GP: 3.7% (+0.7)

LP: 4.0% (n/c)

SD: 3.0% (-0.8)

S-PBP: 2.7% (-0.3) 

AÚ: 2.3% (+0.3)

Oth/Ind: 9.9% (-0.7)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~