OPINION POLLING FOR APRIL 2022

Across April there were 21 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month). 

Con 34.0% (-1.0) 

Lab 40.0% (+1.3)

LDem 9.8% (+0.2)

Grn  5.3% (-0.5)

Rfm 3.1% (-0.5)

Oth 7.8% (+0.5)

Ave Lab lead over Con for April: 6.00% (+2.32)

Labour started the month much as last month, then once they got their teeth into 'PartyGate', Rayner's legs etc etc they managed to open quite a lead at one point, however the Tories recovered sharply in the final week of the month and everybody finished not far off where they started.

Tory support swung between 33-36%, Labour's between 36-43% and the LDems between 8-11%.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% thirteen times during the 21 polls and on one occasion showed an 11% lead (DeltaPoll, 13-14 Apr). Labour led in every poll  with leads of between 3%-11%.

If a General Election were conducted on these APRIL figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L311, C258, SNP47, LD10, PC4 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and Labour needing a coalition of  minimum of the LDems and Plaid - however the LDems demands that we re-enter the EU - including the adoption of the €uro and preferably without even a referendum & the current voting system scrapped and replaced with PR,  combined with Plaid's demands of far greater devolution for Wales up to the same level as Scotland,  make the likelihood of a stable coalition remote at best and Labour would probably choose to limp on with a minority Government.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (95 polls)

Con 33.7%, Lab 39.6%, LDem 10.1%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.4%, Oth 7.7%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 5.8%

Polling figures for April (21 polls)

Con 34.0%, Lab 40.0%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 3.1%, Oth 7.8%

Lab lead over Con Apr: 6.0%

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SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during April.  They averaged as follows:-

SNP: 43.0%, SCon: 20.3%,  SLab: 25.7%, SLD: 6.3%, SGP: 2.0%, Oth: 2.7%

(GE 2019 - SNP: 45%, SCon: 25.1%, SLab: 18.6%, SLDem: 9.5%, SGrn: 1.0%, Oth: 0.8%).

There were also three Holyrood polls released during April.  They averaged (const/list) as follows:-

SNP: 45.3/33.7%, SCon: 20.3/19.7%,  SLab: 23.7/22.3%, SLD: 7.3/8.0%, SGP: -/11.3%, Oth: 3.4/5.0%

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLDem: 6.9/5.1%, SGrn: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

There were three IndyRef polls released, averaging:

Yes: 41.3%, No: 46.7%, DK: 12.0%

(Y:47 N:53)

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WALES

There were no polls released during the period. 

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There are Stormont elections in May.  The system they have to use is that the government is formed from the largest party one side of 'the divide' in a power share with the largest party from the other side.  They are unlilely to achieve much - the power share will still be the usual terrible twins of Sinn Fein and the DUP , however for the first time Sinn Fein will be the lead - and not only that, will be the largest party both north and south of the border.  It will almost certainly not sit though because the DUP are currently refusing to sit until the EU-UK Northern Ireland Protocol is scrapped and without the largest Unionist party, the terms of the Good Friday Agreements mean that it cannot form a government and therefore cannot sit.  Two polls were released during the month giving Stormont voting intentions (figure in brackets compared to last month):-

DUP: 20.1% (+2.1)
SF: 26.5% (+0.5)

UUP: 13.8% (+0.8)

SDLP: 10.1% (-0.9)
APNI: 14.4% (-1.6)
TUV: 7.2% (-1.8)
GRN: 3.7% (+1.7)
PBP: 2.1% (+0.1)
Oth: 1.8% (+0.2)

(2017 first preference %:-)

DUP: 28.1%

SF: 27.9%

UUP: 12.9%

SDLP: 11.9%

APNI: 9.1%
TUV: 2.6%

GRN: 2.3%

PBP: 1.8%

Oth: 3.6%

There was no IndyRef polling released during the month.

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LOCAL ELECTIONS - ENGLAND, SCOTLAND & WALES

There are local elections in parts of England, Scotland & Wales in early May and so far what little polling has been  carried out specifically for these shows 37%-33% in Labour's favour -which the Tories, as government of the day and in mid-term, will be more than satisfied with should the actual vote on the day reflect that.   Labour's support is higher than that in metropolitan areas - such as London Manchester etc,  but  lower (and in some instances a lot lower) once you get to the towns and districts, indicating that they are quite rapidly becoming a metropolitan middle/professional class party whether they want to be or not.

In England (but not the devolved home nations) for some reason  local elections - despite the fact they are about councils and thus local services,  usually reflect people's national thoughts and as a result most voters in England tend to vote over issues that have absolutely nothing to do with councils and indeed councils can do absolutely nothing about.  Already doorstep returns suggest the two main issues will be the 'cost of living crisis' & 'PartyGate' - two issues that councils are powerless to do anything about.  They are also plagued by ultra-low turn outs - the last time this set were held was in 2018 and the turn-out was 34.6%.  Time before in 2014 it was 35.5%.

It is quite complex to work out the shift because in some instances whole councils will cease to exist and new ones created since this section of voting was last carried out four years ago.  The number of councils in England and Wales predicted to be controlled by each party is shown in this table:-

LOCAL AUTHORITY PREDICTION - ENGLAND & WALES

The prediction is that Labour will gain around 20 councils and are not expected to lose any.  The Tories might gain and lose a few councils, but their net total is expected not to change much, if at all. The LDems should pick up the new Somerset Unitary Authority.  Overall this would be a good result for the Tories from their perspective, and Boris Johnson personally, given the Tories' problems with 'Partygate' and other mid-term woes.

Councils predicted to change hands will centre around:-

Predicted Tory gains: Elmbridge, Havering, North Yorkshire (new), Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Worcester
Predicted Tory losses: Barnet, Harlow, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Southampton, Thurrock, Wandsworth

Predicted Labour gains: Barnet, Blaenau Gwent, Bolton, Bridgend, Burnley, Crawley, Cumberland (new), Denbighshire, Flintshire, Harlow, Kirklees, Merthyr Tydfil, Milton Keynes, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Plymouth, Rossendale, Sheffield, Southampton, Wandsworth, West Lancashire, Wirral, Wrexham

Predicted LDem gains: Somerset (new)

Predicted Plaid Cymru gains: Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Ynys Mon (Anglesey)

Westmoreland & Furness (new) will almost certainly be NOC

(*Note that there are four new Unitary Authorities this year: Cumberland, North Yorkshire, Somerset, and Westmorland & Furness. )


In terms of the number of wards won, the prediction is:-

 WARD PREDICTION - ENGLAND & WALES

Labour are predicted to gain around 800 seats, with the Tories losing a similar number. That may be disappointing for the Tories, but it is nowhere near catastrophic and does not indicate a meltdown in Tory support nor a ground shift in the electorate. This is the mid-term of the Parliamentary cycle and the voters always take this opportunity to give the sitting government of the day a well-aimed kick up the arse. 


A direct comparison of the prediction against the actual wards won when the wards were last contested is complicated by the fact that there have been several significant sets of new ward boundaries since then. The table below shows, with the same prediction, using the old ward definitions.  Note that since the total number of seats is decreasing by over 550, most parties appear to lose seats.:-

WARD PREDICTION USING 2018 BOUNDARIES

In Scotland the latest scant polling specific to the local elections has the SNP on 44%, Labour on 22%, Tory on 21%. and LDem on 8%  This is a huge increase in SNP share of nearly a third since the last time these councils were contested 4 years ago and appears to be mostly at Labour's expense.  Scottish local elections are run using a form of proportional representation similar to that used in their Holyrood elections which makes it more difficult to estimate the composition of councils in Scotland but it looks like it will be a very very good night for the SNP and further cement their grip on power in Scotland.

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were two polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):-

SF: 33.5% (+0.5)

FF: 17.0% (-2.7)

FG: 21.5% (+0.2)

GP: 3.5% (-0.8)

LP: 4.0% (+0.3)

SD: 5.5% (+1.5)

S-PBP: 2.5% (-0.5) 

AÚ: 2.5% (+0.7)

Oth/Ind: 10.0% (+0.7)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

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