OPINION POLLING FOR NOVEMBER 2024

Peace is starting to crawl out from the bomb shelters in the Middle East - but as history shows, it's usually illusory and always only temporary.  The war between Ukraine and Russia will probably end not long after Trump takes over as both sides now seem tired and more open to the idea of not laying each other to waste.

Starmer globe-trots trying to 'big' himself up on the international stage but apparently to little effect, with the big players largely ignoring him. His government is now finding that actually being in power is a radically different thing from being in Opposition and is starting to struggle to make headway with the economic outlook now looking bleak due to Chancellor Reeves' budget. He has suffered his first major resignation - his transport Secretary Louise Haigh, amidst rumours it was almost certainly instigated from within his own party following her remarks about P&O earlier in the year.   Badenoch is now leading the Tories and is slowly finding her feet.  The Tories were ahead in roughly a third of the polls for this month.  Reform remains fairly static but is growing in local organisation - particularly in the English Midlands, Northern England & South Wales at a phenomenal rate - faster than any party since Labour was taken over by the unions a few years after World War 1 and the Lib Dems continue to be a comedy act.

Labour has collapsed in the public's esteem faster in its first six months than any government since the Great Depression and has lost a higher percentage of council by-elections than any previous government in its first six months ever - and this is supposed to be the 'honeymoon period' where new governments are at the peak of their popularity.

Across November there were 14 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab  27.9% (-1.4) 

Con 26.8% (+1.7)
Rfm 19.0%% (-0.1)
LDem 12.2% (-0.4) 
Grn 6.7% (-0.8) 

Oth 7.4% (+1.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 24-30% (median 27.0), Labour between 25-30% (median 27.5), Reform between 17-22% (median 19.5), the LDems between 11-14% (median 12.5), and the Greens between 7-9% (median 8.0%). Labour led in all bar four polls (MiC 8-11, 19-23 & 26-27, & FON 27 Nov) with the gap from minus 3 to 6% (median 1.5%).   

If a General Election were held on these November figures it would result in a hung Parliament of:-  L 301 (-43),  C215(+50), LD66 (-6), Rfm 8 (-2), SNP 22 (nc), PC 3 (-1), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 12 (+2), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets movement from last month) with Labour being the largest party but short of a majority (Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (312polls)

Lab 37.6%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.4%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 14.56%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for Nov (14 polls)
Lab 27.9%, Con 26.8%, Rfm 19.0%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.7%, Oth 7.4%

Lab lead over Con Nov: 1.1%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There were 2 Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Lab: 25.5%% (+2.5)
SNP: 30.5% (+0.5)

Con: 15.0% (nc)
LDem: 8.0% % (-2.0)
Rfm: 13.5% (-0.5)

Grn: 5.5% (-0.5)

Oth: 2.0% (nc)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 32.5.0/28.0% (-0.5/nc)

SCon: 14.5/14.5% (+2.5/+0.5)

SLab: 25.0/23.5% (-5.0/-4.5)

SLD: 9.5/9.0% (+1.5/+2.0)

SGP: 6.0/9.5% (+1.0/+1.5)

Oth: 12.5/15.5% (+0.5/+0.5)

Two IndyRef polls were released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 45.5% (-1.5), No: 47.0% (nc), DK: 7.5% (+1.5)

(Yes: 49.2%, No: 50.8%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling in July's General Election)

Lab: 33.0% (-4.0)
Con: 18.0% (-0.2)
PC: 13.0% (-1.8)
LDem: 9.0% (+2.5)
Rfm 21.0% (+4.1)
Grn: 12% (+1.9)

Oth 3.0% (-3.7)

There were two Senedd opinion polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency first preference only):-

Lab 26.0% (-11.0)
Con 18.5% (-4.0)
Plaid 22.0% (+3.5)
LDem 6.0% (+0.5)
Grn: 6.5% (+1.5)
Rfm 21.0% (+15.5)
AWA  - (-1.0)  
UKIP -  (nc)

Oth 1.0% (nc)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There were no Assembly opinion polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

There was one poll during the month - a General Election, which appears to have solved nothing.  The first preference voting was:-

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GERMANY

Germany is undergoing a significant shift to the Right and to what could be termed as 'populism' forms of it.  The SPD, FPD and Green Party Coalition Government in Germany have collapsed and a Confidence vote will be held in January 2025. The country will then move to an early General Election pencilled in for March 2025.  Just as in Ireland, immigration, housing and economic difficulties will be the main issues.

AfD - 18.2% (+0.3)

CDU/CSU - 32.7% (+1.1)
FW - 6.5% (+4.2)

FDP - 4.2% (+0.4)

Grune - 11.3% (+0.6)

SPD - 15.4% (-0.5)

Die Linke - 3.5% (+0.5)
BSW - 8.4% (+0.4)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style Tories with a sprinkling of ReformUK, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist nationalists'  or even 'national socialist').  In essence, AfD & BSW are both populist with AfD being notionally of the Nationalist-Right and BSW being notionally of the Nationalist-Left.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

USA

The USA held its elections and a round-up of the results can be seen here.   President-elect Trump is now forming his new administration, which will take office in late January and will almost immediately start carrying out major changes in policies and a dramatic change in US direction, which will have major reverberations globally.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


A very Merry Xmas and prosperous New Year to both my readers.

2024 IRISH GENERAL ELECTION - RESULT

 The 2024 Irish General Election to the 34th Dail took place on 29 November.     The Dail saw some re-organisation from the previous one elected in 2020, with the addition of 14 seats raising the total from 160 to 174, and the creation of 4 new constituencies taking the total from 29 to 43.

The election took place against a back-drop of extreme public disquiet about the levels of illegal immigration, an erratic economy, the effects of inflation, falling value of wages, a huge and growing housing shortage - including not only a shortage of units, but purchase price or rents being unaffordable to ordinary people. and unhappiness at how Covid was dealt with.

Despite massive public clamouring for change, when it came to voting, there was little change in the seats held by the 'big three' which - politicians being politicians, they interpreted as support for their continued policies.  The moral of the story here is if you want change, it is pointless voting the same way.

Ireland is now going to have yet another coalition government and will continue to lurch from crisis to crisis.  

2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - RESULT

The Republicans have won control of the Presidency,  both Houses of Congress and the majority of Governorships.   They also won the popular vote.  In addition, they already hold a majority in the Supreme Court.

OVERVIEW OF RESULTS

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Electoral College

Donald Trump/JD Vance (Rep) - 312 Electoral College votes. (2020 - 232)

Kamala Harris/Tim Walz (Dem) - 226 Electoral College votes. (2020 - 306)

Donald Trump elected as the 47th President of the United States.

JD Vance elected Vice-President.

Popular Vote

Republicans: 75,883,991 (50.18%) (2020 - 74,223,975  46.8%)
Democrats: 72,873,600 (48.19%) (2020 - 81,283,501  51.3%)

13 Independents: 2,462,047 (1.63%)

Turn-Out  64.5% (2020 - 66.6%)

HOUSES OF CONGRESS

House of Representatives (435 seats)
This is the Lower House. Members serve a fixed term of two years, with each seat up for election before the start of the next Congress. Special elections also occur when a seat is vacated early

Republicans: 218
Democrats: 213
Unfilled: 4


House of Senate (100 seats)

This is the Upper House. Each of the 50 states is represented by two senators who serve staggered six-year terms.

Republicans: 52
Democrats: 47
Independent: 1 (sits with Democrats)


Governors

The United States has 50 states and 5 territories that each elect a governor to serve as Chief Executive of the state or territorial government - in essence, a de facto local President. The sole federal district, the District of Columbia (DC), elects a mayor to oversee their government in a similar manner.

Republicans: 27
Puerto Rico:1 (independent)
North Mariana Islands:1  (independent)
Democrats: 26

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This represents a resounding rejection of the modern middle-class metropolitan-liberal Democrat ideologies. What is particularly stinging them is the Republican vote amongst BAME sections has increased and the female vote remained unscathed - meaning that voters soundly rejected the Democrat accusations of inherent Republican racism and misogyny and on racism and feminism.   Voters have outright rejected the woke agenda, gender issues, critical race theory and all the other junk and bollocks they have been pushing for the last 4 years.    Even among the Democrat faithful, these are not widely supported issues and it would be fair to say that a significant proportion of Democrats regard such stuff as nonsense and self-indulgent student politics - and you are not going to win an election if large numbers of your own voters thing you are talking shite.

The Democrats hamstrung themselves from Day 1.  It was brutally apparent to the Democrat voters that Harris inherited the mantle from Biden by deliberately keeping Biden in place until it was too late to run a leadership contest (which Harris would have lost) and thus inheriting the crown by default - which many Democrat voters and power blocs - particularly the unions, regarded as a 'fix' by the party elite.    Harris was also in the unenviable position that because she had been Biden's Vice,  she could hardly now position herself away from his policies - policies that she had supported for the last 4 years.

The Democrats seemed surprised at the final results despite the fact that the weekly polling averages had indicated this for over 5 weeks (they - like many others,  tended to cherry-pick polls favourable to themselves.  That is the actions of a halfwit.   You need to gather every poll released in a week or whatever period, no matter how weird, and average them).    They actually have only themselves to blame.  They fielded a highly inarticulate candidate who presented poorly at interview, who struggled from Day 1 to put together a coherent position on anything other than she wasn't Trump.

An interesting factoid is that in almost every state the Democrats won,  there was no requirement for voter ID whereas in virtually every state the Republicans won, there was a requirement for either photo ID or some other acceptable form.   The regulations concerning postal votes/early votes were also stricter in Republican-won states.   Interestingly, the Democrat vote plummeted in their 'safe states' but held up relatively well in the others whereas what Trump appears to have done is concentrated his main effort in areas he could 'flip' in order to maximise the impact of the Republican vote. This is resurrecting and fuelling conspiracy theories that the 2020 election was rigged by the Democrats.  This is being further re-inforced in that it appears the total number of registered voters has fallen, possibly because of the requirement in so many states for some form of ID to register.   

One bizarre story I have read is that turnout amongst college-educated younger voters appears to have fallen caused by signature variation.  To register to vote in the US you have to sign the Electoral Register and when you vote, you have to sign again and both signatures must match.   The theory doing the rounds is that college-educated young Americans rarely write anymore - most of what they do is on computers, laptops etc etc and as a result, they are unable to reproduce their own signatures accurately if they are several years apart.  It will be interesting to monitor this to see if it's true or an urban myth.

Finally a big 'hats off' to Atlas Intel - a major polling company who, for the third Presidential election running made the correct call, well inside the margin of error, at all levels.

OPINION POLLING FOR OCTOBER 2024

 

A month that saw Rachel Reeves 'Halloween' Budget statement.   A Statement that united the country.  In hating her.

The wars in both Ukraine and Israel rumble on with no apparent end in sight for either of them although the outcome of the US Presidential Election will have a significant impact in both.

Across October there were 14 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from the General Election):-

Con 25.1% (+1.6)
Lab  29.3% (-1.7) 
LDem 12.6% (-0.7) 
Grn 7.5% (nc) 

Rfm 19.1% (+1.1)

Oth 6.4% (-0.3)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 23-29% (median 26), Labour between 27-31% (median 29), Reform between 18-21% (median 19.5), the LDems between 10-14% (median 12), and the Greens between 7-10% (median 8.5%). Labour led in all bar one poll (BMG 30-31 Oct) by between minus 1 to 7% (median 3%).   

If a General Election were held on these October figures it would result in a Parliament of:-  L344 (-34), C165 (+24), LD72 (-1), Rfm10 (nc), SNP22 (+8), PC4 (nc), Grn4 (nc), NI18, Oth10 (+3), Speaker 1(figures in brackets movement from last month) with Labour having a majority of 38  (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 50 or so). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (298 polls)

Lab 38.7%, Con 24.1%, Rfm 13.9%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 6.3%, Oth 6.1%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 14.56%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for Oct (14 polls)
Lab 29.3%, Con 25.1%, Rfm 19.1%, LDem 12.6%, Grn 7.5%, Oth 6.4%

Lab lead over Con Oct: 4.2%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There was 1 Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Lab: 23.0%% (-9.0)
SNP: 30.0% (+1.0)

Con: 15.0% (+3.0)
LDem: 10.0 % (+2.0)
Rfm: 14.0% (+2.0)

Grn: 6.0% (+1.0)

Oth: 2.0% (nc)

One Holyrood poll was released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.0/29.0% (+1.5/nc)

SCon: 15.0/14.0% (+2.5/+1.0)

SLab: 23.0/22.0% (-5.0/-3.5)

SLD: 10.0/9.0% (+2.0/nc)

SGP: 6.0/9.0% (+1.5/nc)
Rfm: 11.0/11.0% (+2.0/+1.0)

Oth: 2.0/6.0% (-11.5/-8.5)

One IndyRef poll was released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 47.0% (+5.0), No: 47.0% (-0.8), DK: 6.0% (-4.2)

(Yes: 50.0%, No: 50.0%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. 

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There were no Assembly opinion polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleaguered at the moment with asylum seekers  (and the collapse of Sinn Fein - who adopted a pro-asylum seeker stance, has been noticeable where just months ago they were cruising at nearly 30%), the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches.  Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.

Interestingly, for several months now, Sinn Fein - who were the largest party in the Republic, have been languishing in third place, in the main because a significant chunk of their vote came from the traditional Irish working class in Dublin and other urban centres - the very same people who are demonstrating about the immigrants, whereas Sinn fein oppose the hostility and demonstrations.

There were four polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SF: 17.5% (-1.5)

FF: 19.8% (+0.8)

FG: 24.5% (-1.5)

GP: 3.8% (-0.2)

LP: 4.5% (-0.5)

SD: 5.5% (-0.5)

PBP-S: 2.5% (+0.5) 

AÚ: 3.0% (-1.0)

Oth/Ind: 18.9% (+4.9)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GERMANY

Germany is undergoing a significant shift to the Right and to what could be termed as 'populist' forms of it.   Indeed, to try and counter this, the Left-wing Coalition of Olaf Schulz's SPD, the Greens and FDP announced the opening stages of sending Afghans & Syrians back to their home countries (having just sent the first batch back, without an agreement with the Taleban), and Germany has also held preliminary 'sounding' talks with Rwanda and denying illegal immigrants access to benefits - something unheard of 6 months ago.

AfD - 17.9% (-0.2)

CDU/CSU - 31.6% (-0.6)
FW - 2.3% (+0.3)

FDP - 3.8% (-0.2)

Grune - 10.7% (-0.1)

SPD - 15.9% (+0.9)

Die Linke - 3.0% (+0.1)
BSW - 8.0% (-0.5)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories with a sprinkling of ReformUK, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist nationalists'  or even 'national socialist').  In essence Afd & BSW are both populist with AfD being of the Right and BSW being of the left.)

NEWSFLASH

1.  As I predicted three months ago on this site, the final run-off for the Conservative Party leadership was between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick and the result was I predicted - Jenrick being supported by the majority of MPs, but Badenoch winning the actual membership vote.

2.  Donald Trump has won the US Presidential Election for the Republican Party.  Republicans also won control of both Houses of Congress and also won the popular vote.

3.  The Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party Coalition Government in the Republic of Ireland has collapsed and the country will hold an emergency General Election on Nov 29th.  Immigration and economic difficulties will be the main issues.

4. The SPD, FPD and Green Party Coalition Government in Germany has collapsed.  A Confidence vote will be held in January 2025 and the country will then move to a General Election pencilled in for March 2025.  Again, immigration and economic difficulties will be the main issues.

Make America Great Again