OPINION POLLING FOR JUNE 2025

 

Well, what a splendiferous month that turned out to be.  Internationally, the month was dominated by the 12-day War between Israel and Iran, culminating in the US Air Force intervening and giving Iran a long overdue slap.  Really, the US had little choice.  Israel was determined to knock Iran's nuclear ambitions and would have gone nuclear if they had to, to get at the three main centrifuge sites, leaving the US with little option other than to bomb Iran in order to stop Israel nuking them.   The Donald went from strength to strength in the US domestic scene, winning a massive key Ruling in the US Supreme Court which effectively stops states from constantly interfering in his Presidential Orders.  His 'Big, Beautifi Bill' took a step closer to becoming law.

Domestically, Starmer lurches from U-Turn to U-Turn,  managing to carry out two in the last four weeks alone,  one U-Turn effectively reducing his key flagship benefits reforms to little more than tinkering at the edges.  Key pledges are being abandoned across the board and the vast number of self-imposed targets are failing to be met.  Starmer is to increase the defence budget, but we quickly learnt that was not by giving it more money, but by including what is termed critical infrastructure (such as electric pylons, bridges) and including their budget in the overall defence spend.  There will not be a single extra man or woman in uniform, but it will increase the submarine fleet by 5 submarines over the next 10 years.  We are going to give every fat person injections to make them thin, but that really only works provided they keep taking the injections, because no parallel strategy has been brought in to change their behaviour, and at the same time kill off the sick and elderly with assisted suicide and allow abortion on demand virtually up to full term.

Right as we went to press, the Chancellor, Rachel-From-Accounts, burst into tears and Jezza announced he would be forming a new political party.   Chancellors come and go and are disposable and replaceable items, but the threatened emergence of Jezza as an organised political force is a death knell for Labour.  He will take 10% of the vote virtually straight away, mostly from Labour, reducing them to around 15% in the polls.  But it is worse than that for Labour.  Jezza's support is mostly in the big urban conurbations - Gtr London, Gtr Manchester, Liverpool Region, Birmingham etc, especially areas with high immigrant or Muslim populations, meaning it's disproportionate support and he is supported far more in what is Labour's backyard than elsewhere, whilst at the same time Reform is starting to now squeeze Labour in the suburbs. To show the 'draw' of Jezza in urban areas,  he is so heavily supported in his own seat of Islington North, that in a council election in Islington, he would win every single council seat bar one.

Palestinian Action became the first mainstream pro-Palestine protest group to be elevated to the status of 'proscribed' after their infiltration of RAF Brize Norton and the £5m of damage they caused to operational aircraft.  And as for what happened at Glastonbury......

Summer arrived!

Across JUNE there were 26 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 29.0% (-0.8)

Lab  23.3% (+0.5)

Con 18.1% (nc)
LDem 13.8% (-0.5) 
Grn 9.4% (+0.2) 

Oth: 6.4% (+0.6)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The fact that there is so little movement despite many events going on politically, suggests that the parties are by-and-large now at their natural levels and will remain roughly in this area until the end of summer when party conference silly season starts.  Reform led in every single poll in June, with leads of between 2 & 11%   Labour ranged between 21-27% (median 23.0), Reform between 26-34% (median 29.0), the Tories between 15-22% (median 18.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 7-13% (median 9.0).  Of the 26 polls Reform led in every single one of them.  We are now 2 months in to Starmer's government.  The period of the first 12-18 months is the 'golden honeymoon' where new governments are supposed to go up in the polls and conquer all before them - at this period in BoJo's government for example, he was polling over 50% and had won 2 by-elections.  For Starmer, it is now downhill all the way unless he can pull a lot more than a rabbit out of the hat.

If a General Election were held on these JUNE figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 155 (+11),  C 42  (+17), LD 67 (+5), Rfm 319 (-33), SNP 34 (-4), PC 4 (nc), Grn 5 (+1), NI 18, Oth 5 (+2), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a slim working majority. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

.

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (137 polls)
Rfm 26.4%, Lab 24.3%, Con 21.4%, LDem 13.4%, Grn 8.9%, Oth 5.6%

Polling figures for June 2025 (26 polls)
Rfm 29.0%, Lab 23.3%, Con 18.1%, LDem 13.8%, Grn 9.4%, Oth 6.4%

Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 5.7%
Rfm lead over Con Apr: 10.9%
Lab lead over Con Apr: 5.2%


OTHER POLLING

Three major MRP polls were carried out over the period.  Averaged, they would produce a Parliament of Rfm 276, Lab 154, Con 80, LDem 72, SNP 33, NI 18, Grn 5, PC 5, Oth 6, Speaker 1.  MRP polls are highly complex affairs that usually involve samples in the tens of thousands across every constituency in the country.  (I have found from experience that usually the truth lies somewhere between the average of a clutch of MRP polls and the average of ordinary polls done over the same period.  In this case, for June that would put Reform at around 297 seats, Labour around 155 and the Tories around 61).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There were two Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 31.0% (-1.0)
SLab. 21.0% (+2.0)
Rfm: 18.5% (-2.5)
SCon: 11.0% (nc)

SLD: 8.5% (-2.5)
SGP: 8.5% (+3.5)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.5/27.0% (+0.5/+0.5)

SLab: 21.0/20.0% (+2.0/+1.5)
Rfm: 16.0/16.0% (-2.5/+5.0)
SCon: 11.5/12.5% (+0.5/-3.0)

SLD: 8.5/9.0% (-1.0/-1.5)

SGP: 8.0/12.0% (+2.0/nc)
Oth: 1.5/5.0% (-0.5/+1.5)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 48.0% (+5.0), No: 43.0% (-2.0), DK: 9.0% (-2.0)

(Yes: 52.7%, No: 47.3%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

Starmer made a brief foray to Venue Cymru in Llandudno to address the party faithful and had to be smuggled out of the building as it was besieged by irate PIP claimants, farmers, pro-Palestine zombies and several other hostile groups.  

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 24.0%
PC: 24.0%
Lab: 20.0%
Con: 13.0%
LDem: 9.0%

Grn: 6.0%

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month.  Again, note the continued dominance by Plaid & Reform, and the decline of Labour.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Rfm 29.0% (+2.0)

PC 27.0% (-3.0)
Lab 18.0% (nc)

Con 11.0% (-2.0)
Grn: 7.0% (nc)
LDem 7.0% (nc)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 12.0%
Green: 3.0%
AÚ: 2.0% 
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.  What is also starting to cause problems in Irish politics is Ireland's neutral stance clashing with the EU's slowly increasing militarism.

There were two opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 20.0% (-1.3)

FG: 19.5% (+0.5)

SF: 20.5% (-0.8)

SD:  8.0% (nc)

LP:  4.5% (-0.2)

AÚ:  5.0% (+0.7)

II:  5.0% (+0.3)

GP:  2.0% (nc)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 12.5% (+1.8) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

OPINION POLLING FOR MAY 2025

 

The wars in Gaza and Ukraine continue.  The India-Pakistan conflict in Kashmir appears to be over (for now) 

At home, the government limped on in slow meltdown as Starmer continually undermined his own Chancellor, announcing changes to spending plans without discussing them with her and even while she wasn't even in the country.  Deals were announced with the EU and India - both near immediately condemned, even by Starmer's own backbenchers, let alone fishermen and farmers. Chagos was signed, but has still to come into effect, facing challenge after challenge.  Dinghies continue to swarm across the channel in ever-increasing numbers, with not one gang yet tickled let alone smashed. Reform took the previously safe Labour seat of Helsby and Labour and the Tories also had a torrid time at the hands of Reform in the English local elections.

In what was one of the most bizarre things in UK politics for many a year, Starmer spent an entire speech at a factory in Warrington attacking Farage and was mocked even by the normally Labour-supporting elements of the press, with the BBC remarking that "he's finished".

Across MAY there were 23 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 29.8% (+4.6)

Lab  22.8% (-0.6)

Con 18.1% (-3.9)
LDem 14.3% (+0.4) 
Grn 9.2% (+0.2) 

Oth: 5.8% (-0.5)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform has now steamed ahead in the national polls and has opened up a considerable lead over the rest of the pack, leading in all bar one of the polls, which was right at the start of the month, in which they were tied with Labour.   Labour ranged between 20-26% (median 22.0), Reform between 26-33% (median 30.0), the Tories between 16-22% (median 18.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 7-11% (median 9.0).  Of the 23 polls Reform led in 22, with one being tied between them and Labour.

If a General Election were held on these MAY figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 143 (-43),  C 25 (-72), LD 62 (+3), Rfm 352 (+105), SNP 38 (+8), PC 4 (nc), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 3 (+2), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform holding a majority of around 60 (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

.

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for 2025  (111 polls)
Rfm 25.9%, Lab 24.5%, Con 22.0%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 8.8%, Oth 5.4%

Polling figures for May 2025 (23 polls)
Rfm 29.8%, Lab 22.8%, Con 18.1%, LDem 14.3%, Grn 9.2%, Oth 5.8%

Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 7.0%
Rfm lead over Con Apr: 11.7%
Lab lead over Con Apr: 4.7%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

All eyes are on the Scottish Parliament By-Election due to take place on 05 June, for the constituency seat of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.   This was a safe SNP seat, vacated on the unfortunate death of the SNP's Christina McKelvie MSP, from aggressive breast cancer at just 57 years of age.  Labour had visions of pushing hard for this seat, hoping to exploit post-Sturgeon disarray within the SNP. However, it's not quite working out like that.  The Labour vote has collapsed because of the antics of Starmer & co in Westminster, and the SNP is also struggling.   Polling shows this to be a neck-and-neck between Reform and the SNP, but I suspect the SNP's battle experience at getting the vote out on the day will see them narrowly hold the seat.  Reform is unlikely to win in my opinion, but how close to the SNP they finish and how poorly Labour do in a key target seat will be major indicators as to the 2027 Scottish elections.  Should Reform win it, bearing in mind it's Scotland, it will actually be a massive blow to Labour most of all, bigger even than Helsby.  Just a month ago, just after the election was called, Labour were 10/11 favourites to win the seat. The SNP were second on 11/10 and Reform were given odds of 8/1.  Here we are, days before polling, and Reform are now joint-favourites with the SNP at 11/10-on,  with Labour dropping right back to 10/1.  Current polling has it (Figures in brackets show movement from 2021):-

SNP: 24% (-22%)
Rfm: 24%  (+24%)
SLab: 16% (-18%)
SCon: 16% (-2%)
SLD: 10% (+7%)
SGP: 4% (+4%)

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 32.0% (-1.0)
Rfm: 21.0% (+6.0)
Lab: 19.0% (-5.0)
Con: 11.0% (-3.0)

LDem:11.0% (+2.0)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.0/26.5% (-2.5/-2.5)

SLab: 19.0/18.5% (+1.0/-1.5)
Rfm: 18.5/11.0% (+5.0/-5.0)
SCon: 12.0/15.5% (-0.5/+2.5)

SLD: 9.5/10.5% (-1.0/+1.5)

SGP: 6.0/12.0% (+1.0/+4)
Oth: 2.0/5.0% (-1.5/+1.5)

There was just one IndyRef poll released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (-5.0), No: 46.0% (+2.5), DK: 11.0% (+2.5)

(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. Of note is Labour's continuing month-on-month decline.  This has been a trend now for the past year.  Wales is - or rather was - a guaranteed Labour stronghold; however, just as they have at Westminster-level, they have now been overtaken by both Plaid Cymru and Reform. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling).

Rfm 24.0% (-1.0)
PC: 24.0% (+6.0)
Lab: 20.0% (-9.0)
Con: 13.0% (-2.0)
LDem: 9.0% (+3.0)

Grn: 6.0% (nc)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month.  Again, note the continued growth in Plaid & Reform, and the continued decline of Labour.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Plaid 30.0% (+6.0)
Rfm 25.0% (+1.5)
Lab 18.0% (-11.0)

Con 13.0% (-2.5)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)
LDem 7.0% (+2.5)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0% (-2.0)
DUP: 19.0% (-1.0)

APNI: 13.0% (-1.0)
UUP: 12.0% (+1.0)
SDLP: 11.0% (nc)
TUV: 12.0% (+1.0)
Green: 3.0% (+1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0) 
PBP-S: 1.0% (nc)
Oth: 2.0% (-1.0%)

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum are already causing the new government considerable problems and the growth of Irish populism as a result is quite spectacular, with MMA fighter and working-class hero Connor McGregor announcing he will run as a Presidential candidate at the next Presidential Election and despite being condemned by every politician in the Dail, immediately moved into the favourite position in both the polls and the betting.

There were three opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 21.3% (nc)

FG: 20.0% (+1.0)

SF: 21.3% (-2.4)

SD:  8.0% (+0.7)

LP:  4.7% (+1.0)

AÚ:  4.3% (+1.0)

II:  4.7% (+0.2)

GP:  2.0% (-0.7)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 10.7% (-0.8) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)


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PORTUGUESE GENERAL ELECTION - RESULT

Portugal held its third General Election in three years and ended up with basically the same result..  Like the UK, Germany, Ireland and others in recent years, it is waking up to the fact that if you want to change things, you have got to start voting differently.  Voting broadly the same way will only get you broadly the same result, and the utter bollocks will continue because the politicians will use that to 'justify' carrying on as before, irrespective of what you think.

To form a majority in the Portuguese legislative assembly, you need 116 seats - which means the easiest route to power for PSD is to go into coalition with the populist-nationalist CHEGA. In a UK comparison, that would be a Tory-Reform coalition..  However, PSD refuses point blank to work with CHEGA, which leaves it little option but to go into coalition with PS - the equivalent of a Tory-Labour coalition. But the problem here is that they are diametrically opposed on spending plans - very, very, very diametrically opposed.

The only real thing of note is the continued rise of CHEGA, reflecting the growth in populist-nationalist parties all over Europe.  The fear here for the EU is that voters who vote for these parties are more likely to vote in European elections than supporters of other parties because of their low turn-outs, (for example in UK before Brexit, during euro-elections, UKIP, BNP and the Brexit Party did far better than they fared in national elections) which is going to start to hiting the EU parliament at the next EU elections. I can't wait - this is going to be fun.

The outlook for Portugal is another inevitable collapse and another inevitable General Election .......and very very soon.

OPINION POLLING FOR APRIL 2025

Internationally, the various regional wars continue unabated, the Canadians held an election that achieved little,  the Pope died, India & Pakistan started squabling again and President Trump's tariffs have started to 'kick in'.  (it will take several months for them to feed through the supply chain).

At home, the Starmer-EU talks continue without seeming to be getting anywhere other than the EU demanding money and increased access and offering sod all in return, the UK Supreme Court drove a coach and horses through woke ideaology declaring a woman is a woman is a woman.  The PM continues his international galivanting as he persists with his failing attempts to cobble together some sort of Western coalition to occupy post-war Ukraine.

All eyes are on May 1st, with the looming Regional and Metropolitan Mayoral elections as well as the Runcorn & Helsby Parliamentary by-election and a smattering of English councils.  Reform is forecast to do well in all of them,  Labour not particularly brightly and the Tories about to fall off a cliff.

Across APRIL there were 22 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 25.2% (+0.8)

Lab  23.6% (-1.7)

Con 22.0% (-0.7)
LDem 13.9% (+0.8) 
Grn 9.0% (+0.1) 

Oth 6.3% (+0.9)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Labour ranged between 20-27% (median 24.0), Reform between 21-29% (median 25.0), the Tories between 19-27% (median 22.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 5-13% (median 9.0).  Of the 22 polls Labour led in 4, Reform led in 9,  with the Tories leading in none.  The remaining 9 were ties - 8 Lab-Rfm & 1 Lab-Tory

If a General Election were held on these APRIL figures it would result in a hung Parliament of:-  L 186 (-27),  C 97 (-31), LD 59 (+4), Rfm 247 (+61), SNP 30 (-7), PC 4 (nc), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 1 (nc), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform being the largest party but around 59 short of a working majority (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats). Just out of interest, notable figures from Labour who would lose their seats on these figures include Stephen Kinnock, Angela Rayner, Jo White, Liam Byrne, Richard Burgon, Pat McFadden and more.   Notable Tories would include James Cleverly, Marc Francois, David Davies and Victoria Atkins.

.

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (322polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for 2025 (88 polls)
Rfm 25.0%, Lab 24.9%, Con 23.0%, LDem 13.1%, Grn 8.7%, Oth 5.4%

Polling figures for Apr 2025 (22 polls)
Rfm 25.2%, Lab 23.6%, Con 22.0%, LDem 13.9%, Grn 9.0%, Oth 6.3%

Lab lead over Con Apr: 1.6%
Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 1.6%
Rfm lead over Con Apr: 3.2%

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OTHER POLLING

Some other polling of interest that took place during the month included the North of England & East Midlands (basically the famous 'Red Wall'). Of note is the fact that within the 'Red Wall'  - which was overwhelmingly Leave in the BREXIT vote, the growth in Reform is near-identical to the fall in the Labour share.  This presents a major problem for Labour in that without the 'Red Wall' it cannot win an election, and the 'Red Wall' will not support a Remain Prime Minister & Party if they become hell bent on closer EU ties.  The country is clearly not only deeply divided still over the EU, but also appears to be deeply divided between north & south, and these divisions do not correspond to the old 'class divisions' - which makes things extremely difficult for orthodox left-right parties such as Labour and the Tories.  For example, how do you pitch to a working-class Leave voter in the north while at the same time appealing to an identical working-class Remain voter in the south?  And the answer is 'you can't' - you are going to have to abandon one or the other and seek replacement votes from elsewhere. (Figures in brackets show movement from the General Election)

Rfm 30.0%% (+12.5)
Lab  27.0% (-12.6)

Con 22.0% (-1.8)
LDem 10.0% (+2.5) 
Grn 9.0% (+2.2) 

Oth 2.0% (-2.6)

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SCOTLAND

The post-Sturgeon revolution continues with more undoing of her work.  Their anti-mysogyny law is to be scrapped and the minimum age for assisted dying is to be raised from 16 to 18. The policy of reducing car use is to be dropped.  MSPs will shortly agree on the re-drawing of the boundaries for the Holyrood elections to account for population size and dispersal so that each Scottish Parliament constituency and region is roughly equal-sized population-wise.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 33.0% (+1.0)
Lab: 24.0% (+3.0)
Rfm: 15.0% (-1.0)
Con: 14.0% (+1.0)

LDem: 9.0% (-0.5)
Grn: 5.0% (-0.5)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.5/26.5% (+1.5/-2.5)

SLab: 18.0/18.5% (-5.0/-1.5)
Rfm: 13.0/11.0% (-4.0/-5.0)
SCon: 12.5/15.5% (+0.5/+2.5)

SLD: 10.5/10.5% (+2.5/+1.5)

SGP: 7.0/12.0% (+3.0/+4)
Oth: 3.5/5.0% (+1.5/+1.5)

Two IndyRef polls were released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 48.0% (+8.0), No: 43.5% (-6.5), DK: 8.5% (-1.5)

(Yes: 52.5%, No: 47.5%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase along with the amount of interest the parties show in it.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling).

Lab: 29.0% (-4.0)
Rfm 25.0% (+4.0)
PC: 18.0% (+5.0)
Con: 15.0% (-3.0)
Grn: 6.0% (-6.0)

LDem: 6.0% (-3.0)

Oth: 1.0% (-2.0)

There were two Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Lab 27.0% (+1.0)

Plaid 24.0% (+5.0)
Rfm 23.5% (+2.5)
Con 15.5% (-2.0)
Grn: 5.0% (-1.5)
LDem 4.5% (-1.5)

Oth: 1.0% (nc)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

Yes: 35.0% (+11.0), No: 50.0% (-11.0), DK: 15.0% (nc)

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 28.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 14.0%
UUP: 11.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Green: 2.0%
AÚ: 1.0%
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum are already causing the new government considerable problems and the growth of Irish populism as a result is quite spectacular, with MMA fighter and working-class hero Connor McGregor announcing he will run as a Presidential candidate at the next Presidential Election and despite being condemned by every politician in the Dail, immediately moved into the favourite position in both the polls and the betting.

There were three opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 21.3% (+0.3)

FG: 19.0% (-0.5)

SF: 23.7% (+2.2)

SD:  7.3% (-0.2)

LP:  3.7% (-0.3)

AU:  3.3% (-0.7)

II:  4.5% (+0.5)

GP:  2.7% (+0.2)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 11.5% (-0.5) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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