OPINION POLLING FOR NOVEMBER 2025

November was marked domestically by Chancellor Rachel Reeves' controversial Budget Statement, which sparked significant political fallout, including the resignation of Richard Hughes, the OBR's Head. Labour MP Markus Campbell-Savours (Penrith) lost the party whip, and more similar actions may follow. Jezza's Your Party project held its inaugural conference, and following some internal disagreements, it was decided that the name would be 'Your Party'.

Notably, Zack Polanski's Greens have now surpassed the Liberal Democrats in national polling. Reform is currently stable but is expected to gain momentum again once boat crossings resume around mid-April. The Conservatives have seen a slight rise in support, likely due to Kemi Badenoch's strong performances in the Commons over the past two weeks, especially as Starmer, Reeves, and Lammy struggled at the Dispatch Box on key policy. Labour continues to face challenges, with public opinion essentially rejecting its messages and actions. (Early December polls indicate that Labour has dropped further in support, now trailing behind the Conservatives, while the Greens are closing in from behind).

On the international front, France and the Netherlands are in political turmoil, and Germany is experiencing its third consecutive year of recession—the most extended such period for any advanced economy since records began. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East have largely subsided, and a significant international effort is underway to bring peace to Ukraine.

Throughout November, 24 Westminster polls were released. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 30.0% (-0.7)

Lab:  19.0% (-0.5)

Con: 18.0% (+0.3)
Grn: 13.7% (+1.7) 
LDem: 12.7% (-0.6) 
Oth: 6.6% (-0.2)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll in November, with leads of between 5-16% (median 10.0). Reform has now led in every poll bar 3 since mid-April, and even in those three, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 25-33% (median 30.5), Labour ranged  15-23% (median 19.0), the Tories between 16-20% (median 18.0), the Greens between 10-18% (median 12.5), and the LDems between 11-15% (median 13.0).

If a General Election were held on these NOVEMBER figures it would result in a Reform majority government of around 135 with: Rfm389 (+1), L66 (-21), LD61 (-1), SNP45 (+1), C25 (+6), Grn25 (+12), PC6 (+2), NI 18, Oth 14 (+1), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (250 polls)
Rfm 28.2%, Lab 22.6%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.4%, Grn 9.7%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for November 2025 (24 polls)
Rfm 30.0%, Lab 19.0%, Con 18.0%, Grn 13.7%, LDem 12.7%, Oth 6.6%

Rfm lead over Lab Nov: 11.0% (-0.2)
Rfm lead over Con Nov: 12.0% (-1.0)
Lab lead over Con Nov: 1.0% (-1.0)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SNP: 31.8%
Rfm: 21.5%
Lab: 17.3%
Con: 11.0%

LDem: 9.3%
Grn: 5.8%

There were no Holyrood polls released during the month. Figures are displayed as Constituency/Regional. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SNP: 34.5/25.0%
Rfm: 19.0/18.0%
Lab: 17.5/16.0%
Con:  9.0/11.5%
LDem:  9.0/10.0%
Grn: 8.0/13.0%
Oth: 3.0/6.5%

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month:-

Yes: 39.0%, No: 41%, DK: 20%

(Yes: 48.7%, No: 51.3%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

Con: 21.9/23.5%

Lab: 21.6/17.9%

LDem: 6.9/5.1%

Grn: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales slowly increase after Christmas, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Rfm: 29.0%
PC: 24.0%
Lab: : 20.0%
Con: 13.0%
LD:  9.0%

Grn: 0%

No Senedd opinion polls were released during the month. Figures displayed show Constituency First Preference voting, based on the new system (Figures in brackets show the last Senedd polling for reference):-

Rfm: 30.0%
Lab:  23.0%
PC: 22.0%
Con: 11.0%

LD:  4.0%
Grn: 9.0%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. The Senedd will be expanded from 60 to 96 seats. The new voting system will adopt a PR-based, closed-list party system centred on 16 'super-constituencies,' each with six seats. Voters will only be able to vote for a party rather than for individual candidates. A D'Hondt-type method will then be employed to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with parties then assigning individuals to the seats they win from lists that are not publicly disclosed. This means that party-appointed delegates will replace directly elected representatives, which undermines the principles of democracy and accountability.

Moreover, the method being promoted by Labour and Plaid is actually prohibited under EU law, meaning that if they were to achieve their goal of rejoining, they would have to abandon it. It will require approximately 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat, making the system even less representative than the current Additional Member System (AMS). The only countries using a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, and Uruguay. 

If this increase to 96 seats were replicated at the Westminster level, it would mean over 2,000 MPs in Parliament. Wales is already more politically and civil servant-heavy than the other three Home Nations, and this change will only exacerbate that imbalance. It seems unbelievable.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

No Assembly polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 25.0%
DUP: 18.0%

APNI: 11.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 13.0%
Green: 4.0%
AÚ: 2.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 44%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.

One opinion poll was released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 18.0% (nc)

FG: 17.0% (-2.3)

SF: 22.0% (-1.5)

SD:  8.0% (+0.2)

LP:  4.0% (-0.8)

AÚ:  6.0% (+1.2)

II:  4.0% (-nc)

GP:  3.0% (+0.5)

PBP-S: 2.0% (-0.8) 

Oth: 16.0% (+3.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OPINION POLLING FOR OCTOBER 2025

Yet another chaotic month at the heart of government, this time dominated by the lack of letting licence by the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who rents her family home to her sister, fellow Labour MP Ellie Reeves.   Small Boat illegals continue to haunt the government as the the French lack of will to do anything about it despite us paying them huge sums of money continues.  Former-Prince Andrew fell further from grace,  the China Spygate scandal rolled on, as did the momentum to stop the handover of the Chagos Islands to the Chinese via their client state Mauritius. 

Wider afield Federal Shutdown commenced as the Democrats continue to refuse to pass the Republican budget.   The ceasefire in Gaza got underway and bar a few hiccups appears to be holding relatively well.  The great and the good prepared to waste huge amounts of carbon and time achieving little at COP30 and the preceeding '30 Cities' in Rio do Janeiro.

The Dutch held yet another General Election, which will be the subject of a post once they sort their lives out and cobble together another doomed-to-fail coalition government.

France remains a political shambles.

Across OCTOBER there were 22 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm 30.7% (+0.1)

Lab  19.5% (-1.5)

Con 17.7% (+0.4)
LDem 13.3% (-0.1) 
Grn 12.0% (+2.1) 

Oth: 6.8% (-1.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll in October, with leads of between 6-16%.  Reform have now led in every poll bar 3 since mid-April, and in those three they were joint-top.  Reform ranged between 26-35% (median 31.0), Labour ranged  15-22% (median 20.0), the Tories between 14-20% (median 18.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 13.0), and the Greens between 8-17% (median 11.0). 

If a General Election were held on these OCTOBER figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 87 (-24),  C 18 (-12), LD 62 (nc), Rfm 389 (+9), SNP 45 (+1), Grn 13 (+7), PC 4 (-1), NI 18, Oth 13 (+11), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a working majority of around 120. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (226 polls)
Rfm 28.0%, Lab 23.0%, Con 19.9%, LDem 13.5%, Grn 9.3%, Oth 6.3%

Polling figures for October 2025 (22 polls)
Rfm 30.7%, Lab 19.5%, Con 17.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 12.0%, Oth 6.8%

Rfm lead over Lab Oct: 11.2% (+1.6)
Rfm lead over Con Oct: 13.0% (-0.3)
Lab lead over Con Oct: 1.8% (-1.9)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference):-

SNP: 31.8%
Rfm: 21.5%
SLab. 17.3%
SCon: 11.0%

SLD: 9.3%
SGP: 5.8%

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

SNP: 34.5/25.0% (-0.8/-4.3)
Rfm: 19.0/18.0% (+0.7/+1.5)
SLab: 17.5/16.0% (+0.5/-0.8)
SCon: 9.0/11.5% (-1.8/-0.8)
SLD: 9.0/10.0% (-1.3/-1.0)
SGP: 8.0/13.0% (+1.2/+3.2)
Oth: 3.0/6.5% (+1.5/+2.7)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month.

Yes: 46.0%, No: 42.5%, DK: 10.5%

(Yes: 52.0%, No: 48.0%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 29.0% (+4.5)
PC: 24.0% (+2.0)
Lab: 20.0% (-6.5)
Con: 13.0% (-3.0)
LDem: 9.0% (+1.5)

Grn: 6.0% (+0.5)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

PC 22.0% (-8.0)
Rfm 30.0% (+1.0)
Lab 23.0% (+11.0)
Con 11.0% (-0.5)

LDem 4.0% (-2.0)
Grn: 9.0% (+3.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

Caerphilly Senedd by-Election - Result

There was a Senedd by-Election in the Constituency of Caerphilly following the death of Labour's Hefin David.   The Senedd Constituency boundary largely mirrors the Westminster boundary and Labour has held the Senedd seat since inception and the Westminster seat since time immemorial.   Plaid Cymru took the seat ahead of Reform, following a last minute surge in strategic voting, which accounts for Labour's abysmal result.   This by election also saw the highest turn-out at Senedd by-Election level ever recorded anywhere in Wales. (Figures in brackets show movement since the 2021 Senedd Election).

Plaid: 47.4% (+19.0)
Ref: 36.0% (+34.3)
Lab: 11.0% (-35.0)
Con:  2.0% (-15.3)
LDem: 1.5% (-1.2)
Gwlad: 0.3% (na)
UKIP: 0.2% (na)
Turn-Out: 50.4% (+3.8)


(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 25.0% (-1.0)
DUP: 18.0% (-1.0)

APNI: 11.0% (-2.0
UUP: 12.0% (nc)
SDLP: 11.0% (nc)
TUV: 13.0% (nc)
Green: 4.0% (+1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (nc)
PBP-S: 2.0% (nc)
Oth: 2.0% (+1.0)

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 44%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also shares a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

A far-Left candidate - Catherine Connolly, a barrister and psychologist, won the Presidency of Ireland after Sinn Fein, Labour, the Social Democrats & Fianna Fail withdrew and endorsed her on the proviso she dropped her anti-EU position.  Connolly started her political career in 1994 as a councillor in Galway, representing the Irish Labour Party, quitting them in 2006.  She is anti-Nato, describing their position toward Russia as blatant warmongering, was - until the Presidential campaign, anti-EU, calls Israel a genocidal state, is pro-open borders and supports just about ever other left wing cause you care to name.  (She would make an ideal student, teacher or civil servant in the UK).

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.

There were 4 opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 18.0% (-2.0)

FG: 19.3% (-0.7)

SF: 23.5% (+3.0)

SD:  7.8% (+0.8)

LP:  4.8% (+0.8)

AÚ:  4.8% (+1.3)

II:  4.0% (-1.0)

GP:  2.5% (nc)

PBP-S: 2.8% (-0.7) 

Oth: 12.5% (-1.5) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OPINION POLLING FOR SEPTEMBER 2025

 

Well what a monumental month that was.  Sackings, reshuffles, scandals and more.  Domestically, Labour slumped to new lows in the polls,  Deputy PM Angela Rayner had to resign and Lord Mandelson - the Ambassador to the US also resigned.  The Donald had his second State Visit, becoming the first US President to achieve that honour.   He also becomes the first US president to have been received by two separate British Monarchs.  Starmer's government also succumbed to the fashion of the day and recognised Palestine.  The 'dinghy crisis' continued unabated, and we deported 7 of this years crop of over 30,000, importing 6 from the generous French. New runways for airports were announced.   Andy Burnham appeared to trial his new Downing St Prime Minister policy - one out, one in, but after dipping a toe decided it wasn't for him.  The disgraceful trial of 'Soldier F' resumed.

Party conference season got underway, with Reform being 'bullish', Labour spending theirs attacking Reform while unveiling plans near-identical to Reform's whilst hoping for a 'bounce' but initial early post-conference polling suggests they have fallen further with the public rejecting their anti-Reform rhetoric, Digital-ID plans and Keir Starmer himself, and it is clear that the Labour Party is very publicly and very deeply split over fundemental issues and core policies. The Lib Dems giving everyone lego and the rest weren't worth bothering about or will happen in October. 

Overseas, the wars continue, but serious moves are being made to bring an end to Gaza, but it will rest on HAMAS complying, which they almost certainly won't.

Across SEPTEMBER there were 28 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm 30.6% (nc)

Lab  21.0% (-0.1)

Con 17.3% (-0.5)
LDem 13.4% (-0.2) 
Grn 9.9% (+1.3) 

Oth: 7.8% (+0.5)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Again, the polls show summer doldrums.  Reform led in every single poll in September, with leads of between 3-15%.   Reform ranged between 27-34% (median 30.5), Labour ranged  16-25% (median 21.0), the Tories between 14-20% (median 17.0), the LDems between 10-16% (median 13.5), and the Greens between 7-13% (median 10.0). 

If a General Election were held on these SEPTEMBER figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 101 (-9),  C 30  (-5), LD 62 (-1), Rfm 380 (+13), SNP 44 (+8), Grn 6 (+2), PC 5 (nc), NI 18, Oth 3 (nc), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a working majority of around 118. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (204 polls)
Rfm 27.7%, Lab 23.4%, Con 20.1%, LDem 13.5%, Grn 9.0%, Oth 6.3%

Polling figures for September 2025 (25 polls)
Rfm 30.6%, Lab 21.0%, Con 17.3%, LDem 13.4%, Grn 9.9%, Oth 7.8%

Rfm lead over Lab Sep: 9.6% (+0.1%)
Rfm lead over Con Sep: 13.3% (+0.5)
Lab lead over Con Sep: 3.7% (+0.4)


OTHER POLLING

There were three MRP polls released during the month. Multi-level Regression & Post-stratification is far larger, far more complex method, usually involving far far larger sample-set, fine-tuned to more accurately reflect demographics and population dispersal, across every constituency.   Averaged, they revealed a parliament of:-

Reform: 326 seats
Labour: 142 seats
LDem: 70 seats
Tory: 43 seats
SNP: 34 seats
Green: 6 seats
Plaid: 5 seats
Other: 5
NI: 18
Speaker: 1

This would give Reform a working majority of around 20, as Sinn Fein will not take their seats and the DUP and TUV will work with them

Jeremy Corbyn's new yet-to-start endeavour will launch sometime in November, with peace now broken out between Corbyn and co-leader Zara Sultana. There was one poll released during the month that included his party (Figures in brackets show movement from the last month):-

Rfm: 34.0% (+4.5)

Lab:  20.0% (-1.3)

Con: 16.0% (-2.5)
LDem: 13.0% (+1.5)
JC: 6.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 7.0% (nc)

Oth: 4.0% (-1.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote

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SCOTLAND

About the only thing of note was the election of Gillian Mackay & Ross Green as the co-leaders of the Scottish Green Party.

There were four Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

SNP: 31.8% (+0.8)
Rfm: 21.5% (+0.5)
SLab. 17.3% (+0.3)
SCon: 11.0% (nc)

SLD: 9.3% (-1.7)
SGP: 5.8% (-0.2)

There were four Holyrood polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

SNP: 35.3/29.3% (-1.7/-2.7)
Rfm: 18.3/16.5% (+2.3/+0.3)
SLab: 17.0/16.8% (nc/+0.8)
SCon: 10.8/12.3% (-1.2/+0.3)
SLD: 10.3/11.0% (-1.7/-3.0)
SGP: 6.8/9.8% (+1.8/+1.8)
Oth: 1.5/4.3% (+0.5/+2.3)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month.

Yes: 49.0%, No: 44.5%, DK: 6.5%

(Yes: 52.4%, No: 47.6%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 29.0% (+4.5)
PC: 24.0% (+2.0)
Lab: 20.0% (-6.5)
Con: 13.0% (-3.0)
LDem: 9.0% (+1.5)

Grn: 6.0% (+0.5)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference):-

PC 30.0% (+6.5)
Rfm 29.0% (+2.5)
Lab 14.0% (-11.0)
Con 11.0% (-0.5)

LDem 6.0% (nc)
Grn: 6.0% (+1.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 13.0%
Green: 3.0%
AÚ: 2.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: <.1.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 44%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also shares a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.  Conor McGregor announced he will definitely run as an independent candidate in the next Irish Presidential elections, immediately becoming the bookies' favourite to win.

There was one opinion poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 20.0% (-2.0)

FG: 20.0% (-1.0)

SF: 20.5% (+0.5)

SD:  7.0% (nc)

LP:  4.0% (-0.5)

AÚ:  3.5% (-0.5)

II:  5.0% (+1.0)

GP:  2.5% (+0.5)

PBP-S: 3.5% (+0.5) 

Oth: 14.0% (+1.0) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~