Fighting continues between Ukraine & Russia, with neither side appearing ready to stop yet and both sides clearly thinking they can gain more by continuing to fight. The Middle East prepares for what looks like a soon-to-be major showdown between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear ambitions. Once that kicks off, Israel-Syria-Gaza-lebanon will pale into insignificance. The Donald continues with his 'global disruption' policies. New Canadian PM Mark Carney called a snap election which he appears to be nap-on to win.
At home, Starmer continued his international galavanting as he tried to cobble together his Coalition Of The Foot-Draggers, which, without US air cover (which appears to be decidedly not forthcoming), is a non-starter. The end of the month saw the Chancellor - Rachel-From-Accounts Reeves deliver her spring statement with many political commentators saying it is a suicide note. Deputy Prime Minister Angela 'Red Queen' Rayner continues to struggle to get her '1.5m new housing starts by 2029' off the ground. Squabbles broke out between the government and the Judiciary advisors over two-tier justice. Birmingham's bin strike continues. Labour appears to have increased very very marginally, mainly because of Starmer pretending to be the tough guy over Ukraine, while the Tories and Lib Dems remain relatively becalmed, with Reform showing the biggest movement - but negatively, almost certainly because of their internal squabble between the party & Richard Lowe.
Fast Looming on the horizon we have Regional Mayor and local elections in large parts of England right at the start of May, with the by-election in Runcorn & Helsby a week later. Reform is predicted to do very well in both, largely at the Tories' expense.
Fast Looming on the horizon we have Regional Mayor and local elections in large parts of England right at the start of May, with the by-election in Runcorn & Helsby a week later. Reform is predicted to do very well in both, largely at the Tories' expense.
Across MARCH there were 25 Westminster polls. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-
Lab 25.3% (+0.4)
Con 22.7% (-0.2)
Rfm 24.4%% (-1.7)
LDem 13.1% (+0.2)
Grn 8.9% (+0.6)
Rfm 24.4%% (-1.7)
LDem 13.1% (+0.2)
Grn 8.9% (+0.6)
Oth 5.6% (+0.3)
(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)
Labour ranged between 21-30% (median 25.0), Reform between 19-27% (median 24.0), the Tories between 19-27% (median 22.0), the LDems between 10-16% (median 13.0), and the Greens between 7-11% (median 8.0). Of the 25 polls Labour led in 14, Reform led in 4, with the Tories leading in 2. The remaining 5 were ties - 4 Lab-Rfm, 1 Lab-Tory
If a General Election were held on these MARCH figures it would result in a hung Parliament of:- L 213 (+38), C 128 (-29), LD 55 (-8), Rfm 186 (-1), SNP 37 (-2), PC4 (+2), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 4 (+1), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Labour being the largest party but around 105 short of a working majority (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).
Comparisons
Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)
General Election 04 Jul 2024:
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY - Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY - Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%
Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.
Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)
Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%
Polling figures for 2025 (66 polls)
Lab 25.3%, Con 23.4%, Rfm 24.9%, LDem 12.8%, Grn 8.6%, Oth 5.6%
SNP: 32.0%
Lab: 21.0%
Con: 13.0%
SNP: 34.0/29.0% (-1.0/-1.0)
(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)
Canada's new Prime Minister - former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has called a snap Federal election in the wake of The Donald's tariffs in an effort to get a popular mandate for what he intends to do. The election will take place on 28 April. (basically, he will get the Canadian voters to vote for their own suicide note. That way they can't complain.)
Polling since the election was called show that his party - the centre-left LPC ( a sort of free market Blairism) will romp the election. The previous government was a loose coalition between LPC & NDP, however LPC looks as though it will win outright and govern on it's own.
Since the election was called a fortnight ago there have been an astounding 49 polls. (figures in brackets show movement from the last General Election in September 2021)
LPC: 43.9% (+11.3) (Liberal Party)
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%
Polling figures for 2024 (322polls)
Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%
General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%
Polling figures for 2025 (66 polls)
Lab 25.3%, Con 23.4%, Rfm 24.9%, LDem 12.8%, Grn 8.6%, Oth 5.6%
Polling figures for Mar 2025 (25 polls)
Lab 25.3%, Con 22.7%, Rfm 24.4%, LDem 13.1%, Grn 8.9%, Oth 5.6%
Lab 25.3%, Con 22.7%, Rfm 24.4%, LDem 13.1%, Grn 8.9%, Oth 5.6%
Lab lead over Con Mar: 2.6%
Lab lead over Rfm Mar: 0.9%
Rfm lead over Con Mar: 1.7%
Lab lead over Rfm Mar: 0.9%
Rfm lead over Con Mar: 1.7%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCOTLAND
Very little polling has taken place in Scotland over the last few months however it is worth pointing out that there are indications Reform are making good progress north of the border and if the trend continues should replace Labour in the number 2 spot by late summer. However, significantly more polling, from a range of companies to remove methodology differences, will be required to confirm that.
General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%
General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%
There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show last polling for reference):-
SNP: 32.0%
Lab: 21.0%
Con: 13.0%
Rfm: 16.0%
LDem: 9.5%
Grn: 5.5%
LDem: 9.5%
Grn: 5.5%
Oth: 3.0%
There was one Holyrood poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-
SNP: 34.0/29.0% (-1.0/-1.0)
SLab: 23.0/20.0% (+5.0/+3.0)
SCon: 12.0/13.0% (-3.0/-2.0)
SCon: 12.0/13.0% (-3.0/-2.0)
Rfm: 17.0/16.0% (+3.0/+3.0)
SLD: 8.0/9.0% (-3.0/-2.0)
SGP: 4.0/8.0% (-2.0/-2.0)
Oth: 2.0/5.0% (+1.0/+1.5)
Oth: 2.0/5.0% (+1.0/+1.5)
Two IndyRef polls were released during the month, however both were from the same company and done within days of each other which may account for the significant shift (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-
Yes: 40.0% (-8.0), No: 50.0% (+3.0), DK: 10.0% (+5.0)
(Yes: 44.4%, No: 55.6%)
(General Election 2024)
SLab: 35.3%
SNP: 30.0.0%
SCon: 12.7%
SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%
Oth: 1.6%).
(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).
(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WALES
Possibly the most interesting thing in Welsh politics was Rhun Iorworth, the head of Plaid Cymru, appearing on BBC's Question Time and being asked to justify the proposed increase in Welsh Parliament politicians - and failing miserably. I actually vaguely know Rhun Iorworth from when I lived near him. He is a very nice chap but is a hopeless politician. (Plaid has completely lost the plot in the last few years and is obsessed with 'woke'. The biggest mistake it has made was to overthrow the Valleys firebrand Leanne Wood in 2018. Plaid is really three very different and incompatible parties under the same banner - a working-class post-industrial southern Valleys group, a 'Y Fro Gymraeg' conservative Welsh-speaking largely rural group centred on the northwest & west coast, and a radical group largely consisting of clueless university graduates and public sector workers in places such as Cardiff, Swansea, Aberystwyth & Bangor - which funnily enough is where the univeristies - as well as large numbers of graduates and public sector workers are. Currently power lies with the latter two groupings, with the radicals currently dominant with Rhun a sop to keep the Y Fro group on-side as the largely now ignored Valleys group - a group that has the most potential for growth incidentally, slowly drifting off to Reform)
General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%
There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference)
Lab: 33.0%
Rfm 21.0%
Con: 18.0%
PC: 13.0%
Grn: 12%
There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference)
Lab: 33.0%
Rfm 21.0%
Con: 18.0%
PC: 13.0%
Grn: 12%
LDem: 9.0%
Oth: 3.0%
There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference) (constituency first preference only):-
There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.
(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)
Lab 26.0%
Rfm 21.0%
Plaid 19.0%
Con 18.5%
Grn: 6.5%
LDem 6.0%
AWA: 1.0%
UKIP: 1.0%
Oth: 1.0% Plaid 19.0%
Con 18.5%
Grn: 6.5%
LDem 6.0%
AWA: 1.0%
UKIP: 1.0%
There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.
(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%
(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%
Lab: 39.9/36.2%
Con: 26.1/25.1%
Plaid: 20.3/20.7%
LDem: 4.9/4.3%
Grn: 1.6/3.6%
Ref: 1.5/1.1%
AWA*: 1.5/3.7%
UKIP: 0.8/1.6%
Propel: 0.6/0.9%
(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)
(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public. Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use. The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay. Proportionally, the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs. Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NORTHERN IRELAND
General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%
There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-
General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%
There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 19.0%
APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 10.0%
SDLP: 10.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Green:2.0%
AÚ: 1.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: 3.0%
(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-
SF: 28.0%
DUP: 19.0%
DUP: 19.0%
APNI: 14.0%
UUP: 11.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Green: 2.0%
AÚ: 1.0%
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 3.0%
UUP: 11.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Green: 2.0%
AÚ: 1.0%
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 3.0%
(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 43%)
(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%
DUP: 22.1%
UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%,
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%,
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.
Illegal immigration and asylum are already causing the new government considerable problems and the growth of Irish populism as a result is quite spectacular, with MMA fighter and working-class hero Connor McGregor announcing he will run as a Presidential candidate at the next Presidential Election and despite being condemned by every politician in the Dail, immediately moved into the favourite position in both the polls and the betting.
Illegal immigration and asylum are already causing the new government considerable problems and the growth of Irish populism as a result is quite spectacular, with MMA fighter and working-class hero Connor McGregor announcing he will run as a Presidential candidate at the next Presidential Election and despite being condemned by every politician in the Dail, immediately moved into the favourite position in both the polls and the betting.
There were two opinion polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)
FF: 22.0% (nc)
FG: 19.5% (-0.5)
SF: 21.5% (-1.0)
SD: 7.5% (nc)
LP: 4.0% (nc)
AU: 4.0% (nc)
II: 4.0% (nc)
GP: 2.5% (-0.5)
PBP-S: 3.0% (+0.5)
Oth: 12.0% (+1.5)
(General Election Nov 2024)
FF: 21.9%
FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%
SF: 19.5%
SD: 4.8%
LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%
AU: 3.9%
II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%
GP: 3.0%
PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
Oth: 15.0%
(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CANADA
Canada's new Prime Minister - former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has called a snap Federal election in the wake of The Donald's tariffs in an effort to get a popular mandate for what he intends to do. The election will take place on 28 April. (basically, he will get the Canadian voters to vote for their own suicide note. That way they can't complain.)
Polling since the election was called show that his party - the centre-left LPC ( a sort of free market Blairism) will romp the election. The previous government was a loose coalition between LPC & NDP, however LPC looks as though it will win outright and govern on it's own.
Since the election was called a fortnight ago there have been an astounding 49 polls. (figures in brackets show movement from the last General Election in September 2021)
LPC: 43.9% (+11.3) (Liberal Party)
CPC: 37.7% (+4.0) (Conservative Party
NDP: 8.0% (-9.8) (New Democrats)
BQ: 5.2% (-2.4) (Bloc Quebecois)
PPC: 5.2% (+0.3) (Peoples Party)
GPC: 2.1% (-0.2) (Green Party)
NDP: 8.0% (-9.8) (New Democrats)
BQ: 5.2% (-2.4) (Bloc Quebecois)
PPC: 5.2% (+0.3) (Peoples Party)
GPC: 2.1% (-0.2) (Green Party)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
