OPINION POLLING FOR AUGUST 2025

As I write this, all hell is breaking loose over the housing and tax arrangements of the Deputy PM Angela Rayner.  Although I know the outcome, because this is about August, I cannot mention it until I write September's post in 4 weeks time.

Anti-asylum hotel protests intensified during the month, clearly panicking the government as it sees public support and sympathy slipping away rapidly.  It is struggling with the fact that the overwhelming majority of the public, including a majority of their own voter base, not only do not want these people processed faster, nor want them in hotels nor dispersing into HMOs,  they want them locking up then gone, out of the country with future dinghies stopped in the channel and dumped back on the French beaches.  Anything less, the public regards as failure and a cop-out by the politicians.

Party conference season approaches.  A rather joyless festival of self-congratulatory and self-indulgent politicians slapping their own backs and preaching to people who are already going to vote for them anyway, while the rest of the country switches over to watch iPlayer or Netflix. Or yawns and scratches its arse.

Media speculation about the Chancellor's November Budget Statement is reaching fever-pitch.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue.

Across AUGUST there were 20 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 30.6% (+1.1)

Lab  21.1% (-1.5)

Con 17.8% (-0.1)
LDem 13.6% (-0.4) 
Grn 8.6% (-0.7) 

Oth: 7.3% (+0.6)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Again, the polls show summer doldrums.  Reform led in every single poll in August, with leads of between 5-16%.   Reform ranged between 27-35% (median 29.0), Labour ranged  18-23% (median 21.0), the Tories between 15-22% (median 17.5), the LDems between 11-16% (median 13.5), and the Greens between 6-11% (median 9.0). 

If a General Election were held on these AUGUST figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 110 (-32),  C 35  (-3), LD 63 (-4), Rfm 367 (+32), SNP 44 (+8), PC 5 (+1), Grn 4 (-1), NI 18, Oth 3 (nc), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a working majority of around 92. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (179 polls)
Rfm 27.3%, Lab 23.7%, Con 20.5%, LDem 13.5%, Grn 8.9%, Oth 6.1%

Polling figures for August 2025 (20 polls)
Rfm 30.6%, Lab 21.1%, Con 17.8%, LDem 13.6%, Grn 8.6%, Oth 7.3%

Rfm lead over Lab Jul: 9.5% (+2.6%)
Rfm lead over Con Jul: 12.8% (+1.2)
Lab lead over Con Jul: 3.3% (-1.4%)


OTHER POLLING

Jeremy Corbyn's new yet-to-start endeavour is already falling in the polls, probably for two reasons.  There is a clear ideological split in the leadership with Corbyn - who represents the hard, traditional left view, supporting Brexit,  and Zarah Sultana, representing the metropolitan middle-class nouveau-left view, supporting Rejoin.  The second thing starting to affect them is the time it is taking for this party to actually launch. Politics now is consumer-driven, instant, '5-m inutes of fame' and a politician or political cause that takes its time is basically destroying itself as voters rapidly lose interest and move on. The days of "I will not be rushed" are dead and buried.

There were two polls released during the month (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Rfm: 29.5% (nc)

Lab:  21.5% (+2.2)

Con: 18.5% (-0.5)
LDem: 13.5% (+1.2)
JC: 5.0% (-4.8)
Grn: 7.0% (+1.5)

Oth: 5.0% (+0.4)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

About the only thing of any interest at all is Nicola Sturgeon - the disgraced former-leader of the SNP, releasing her autobiography that no one at all was interested in and was being flogged at 50% and more off within a week of launch.

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 31.0% (nc)
SLab. 17.0% (nc)
Rfm: 21.0% (+2.5)
SCon: 11.0% (nc)

SLD: 11.0% (+2.5)
SGP: 6.0% (-2.5)

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 37.0/32.0% (+3.5/+5.0)
SLab: 17.0/16.0% (-4.0/-4.0)
Rfm: 16.0/16.0% (nc/nc)
SCon: 12.0/12.0% (+0.5/-0.5)
SLD: 12.0/14.0% (+3.5/+5.0)
SGP: 5.0/8.0% (-3.5/-4.0)
Oth: 1.0/2.0% (-0.5/-3.0)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month.

Yes: 44.0%, No: 47.0%, DK: 9.0%

(Yes: 48.4%, No: 51.6%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 24.0%
PC: 24.0%
Lab: 20.0%
Con: 13.0%
LDem: 9.0%

Grn: 6.0%

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference):-

Lab 25.0% (+7.0)
Rfm 26.5% (-2.5)

PC 23.5% (-3.5)

Con 11.5% (+0.5)

LDem 6.0% (-1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (-2.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0% (nc)
DUP: 19.0% (-2.0)

APNI: 13.0% (-1.0)
UUP: 12.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 11.0% (nc)
TUV: 13.0% (+1.0)
Green: 3.0% (nc)
AÚ: 2.0% (nc)
PBP-S: 2.0% (+1.0)
Oth: <.1.0% (-1.0)

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 44%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also shares a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.  Conor McGregor announced he will definitely run as an independent candidate in the next Irish Presidential elections, immediately becoming the bookies' favourite to win.

There was one opinion poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 22.0% (+1.5)

FG: 21.0% (+2.5)

SF: 20.0% (-1.5)

SD:  7.0% (nc)

LP:  4.0% (-0.5)

AÚ:  4.0% (+0.5)

II:  4.0% (-2.0)

GP:  2.0% (-0.5)

PBP-S: 3.0% (+0.5) 

Oth: 13.0% (-1.0) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OPINION POLLING FOR JULY 2025

Another monumental month that saw the wars rumble-on and despite repeated threats of assorted natures from various quarters in the west, little movement towards ending them by any of the sides involved and indeed little interest either.

The main events in the UK really were the passing of rock-icon and national treasure Ozzy Osbourne, the Oasis tour (about the only ceasefire that's working), and the UEFA Womens European Championships, (won by England).   

Politically within the UK nothing much has changed strategically other than the announcement of the yet-to-be-named Party to be lead by Jezza, currently called YourParty, but known 'affectionately' in the press as 'Jezbollah' for obvious reasons.   Already Labour is trying to re-brand some of it's policies as it comes under increasing pressure from Reform on it's right flank, and now facing the possibility of Corbyn attacking it from the left.  Early indications from polling show that Labour's attempts are failing.  In all probability Starmer & Labour are probably glad the summer break is here and the press will lose interest and concentrate on the Premier League transfers instead - except for the on-going problems of illegal immigrants and hotels.  A problem that will not go away and one which the overwhelming majority of the British public (around 80%) are at a totally opposite position to to the government, which seems to be deliberately turning a deaf ear despite the fact that just as the problem destroyed the Tories, unless it is dealt with the way the public wants, it will ultimately destroy Labour as well. Labour have embarked on a policy of cooking the books regarding hotels by closing a swathe of smaller ones, replacing them with a couple of big ones thereby pretending they've reduced the number of hotels whereas in reality they've increased the number of hotel beds.  Another 'wizard wheeze' they are doing is to buy hotels outright at way over market value.  they then claim that the resident illegals are living in government accommodation as opposed to hotels.

Meanwhile,  Resident Doctors held their first 5 day strike, as nurses, consultants and GPs  also prepare to take industrial action.


Across JULY there were 22 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 29.5% (+0.5)

Lab  22.6% (-0.7)

Con 17.9% (-0.2)
LDem 14.0% (+0.2) 
Grn 9.3% (-0.1) 

Oth: 6.7% (+0.3)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

As predicted last month, there is little movement in the polls now the summer doldrums are here.  Polls also now include a representative proportion of 16-18 year-olds.  Reform led in every single poll in July, with leads of between 2-13%   Labour ranged between 20-25% (median 23.0), Reform between 26-34% (median 29.0), the Tories between 16-21% (median 17.5), the LDems between 11-16% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 6-12% (median 9.0). 

If a General Election were held on these JULY figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 142 (-13),  C 38  (-4), LD 67 (nc), Rfm 335 (+16), SNP 36 (+2), PC 4 (nc), Grn 5 (nc), NI 18, Oth 4 (-1), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a working majority of around 25. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (159 polls)
Rfm 26.9%, Lab 24.0%, Con 20.9%, LDem 13.5%, Grn 9.0%, Oth 5.8%

Polling figures for July 2025 (22 polls)
Rfm 29.5%, Lab 22.6%, Con 17.9%, LDem 14.0%, Grn 9.3%, Oth 6.7%

Rfm lead over Lab Jul: 6.9%
Rfm lead over Con Jul: 11.6%
Lab lead over Con Jul: 4.7%


OTHER POLLING

According to well-placed media reports, Jeremy Corbyn's new party plans are gathering momentum (pun intended).  It will definitely launch during the summer break, and on resumption of Parliament, 4 Gaza Independents will cross-over and join Jezza and Zara Sultana, along with the first Labour defection - Diane Abbott with more expected to follow.  This means within hours of Parliament opening for it's first session, "Jezbollah" will then consist of at least 7 MPs. Green energy industrialist and major Labour Party donor & billionaire Dale Vance (who used to fund Just Stop Oil and similar rubbish) will also quit Labour, taking up post as Jezza's first party's Chair.  He will donate £60m over the remainder of this Parliament (that's around £17m a year).  Several major Trades Unions will also formally recognise it and break from Labour.  The new group believes it will launch with around 1m members and is already in preliminary talks with the Green Party about an electoral pact and Galloway's Workers Party about it potentially amalgamating.  The remains of the old Momentum organisation will also get behind it providing it's nationwide organisational base along with the SWP and it's franchise (CND, Unite Against Fascism, Stop The War and all that bollocks). who will initially form the activists, particularly in student towns and major urban areas.

There has been a flurry of polls over the last month to try and gauge the impact, and they average as follows:-

Rfm: 29.5%

Lab:  19.3%

Con: 19.0%
LDem: 12.3%
JC: 9.8%
Grn: 5.5%

Oth: 4.6%

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference):-

SNP: 31.0%
SLab. 21.0%
Rfm: 18.5%
SCon: 11.0%

SLD: 8.5%
SGP: 8.5%

There were no Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Holyrood polling for reference):-

SNP: 33.5/27.0%

SLab: 21.0/20.0%
Rfm: 16.0/16.0%
SCon: 11.5/12.5%

SLD: 8.5/9.0%

SGP: 8.0/12.0%
Oth: 1.5/5.0%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 48.0%, No: 43.0%, DK: 9.0%

(Yes: 52.7%, No: 47.3%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 24.0%
PC: 24.0%
Lab: 20.0%
Con: 13.0%
LDem: 9.0%

Grn: 6.0%

There were two Senedd opinion polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Lab 25.0% (+7.0)
Rfm 26.5% (-2.5)

PC 23.5% (-3.5)

Con 11.5% (+0.5)

LDem 6.0% (-1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (-2.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 12.0%
Green: 3.0%
AÚ: 2.0% 
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.

There were two opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 20.5% (+0.5)

FG: 18.5% (-1.0)

SF: 21.0% (+0.5)

SD:  7.0% (-1.0)

LP:  4.5% (nc)

AÚ:  3.5% (-1.5)

II:  6.0% (+1.0)

GP:  2.5% (+0.5)

PBP-S: 2.5% (-0.5) 

Oth: 14.0% (+1.5) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

John Michael "Ozzy" Osbourne
03 Dec 1948 - 22 Jul 2025

OPINION POLLING FOR JUNE 2025

 

Well, what a splendiferous month that turned out to be.  Internationally, the month was dominated by the 12-day War between Israel and Iran, culminating in the US Air Force intervening and giving Iran a long overdue slap.  Really, the US had little choice.  Israel was determined to knock Iran's nuclear ambitions and would have gone nuclear if they had to, to get at the three main centrifuge sites, leaving the US with little option other than to bomb Iran in order to stop Israel nuking them.   The Donald went from strength to strength in the US domestic scene, winning a massive key Ruling in the US Supreme Court which effectively stops states from constantly interfering in his Presidential Orders.  His 'Big, Beautifi Bill' took a step closer to becoming law.

Domestically, Starmer lurches from U-Turn to U-Turn,  managing to carry out two in the last four weeks alone,  one U-Turn effectively reducing his key flagship benefits reforms to little more than tinkering at the edges.  Key pledges are being abandoned across the board and the vast number of self-imposed targets are failing to be met.  Starmer is to increase the defence budget, but we quickly learnt that was not by giving it more money, but by including what is termed critical infrastructure (such as electric pylons, bridges) and including their budget in the overall defence spend.  There will not be a single extra man or woman in uniform, but it will increase the submarine fleet by 5 submarines over the next 10 years.  We are going to give every fat person injections to make them thin, but that really only works provided they keep taking the injections, because no parallel strategy has been brought in to change their behaviour, and at the same time kill off the sick and elderly with assisted suicide and allow abortion on demand virtually up to full term.

Right as we went to press, the Chancellor, Rachel-From-Accounts, burst into tears and Jezza announced he would be forming a new political party.   Chancellors come and go and are disposable and replaceable items, but the threatened emergence of Jezza as an organised political force is a death knell for Labour.  He will take 10% of the vote virtually straight away, mostly from Labour, reducing them to around 15% in the polls.  But it is worse than that for Labour.  Jezza's support is mostly in the big urban conurbations - Gtr London, Gtr Manchester, Liverpool Region, Birmingham etc, especially areas with high immigrant or Muslim populations, meaning it's disproportionate support and he is supported far more in what is Labour's backyard than elsewhere, whilst at the same time Reform is starting to now squeeze Labour in the suburbs. To show the 'draw' of Jezza in urban areas,  he is so heavily supported in his own seat of Islington North, that in a council election in Islington, he would win every single council seat bar one.

Palestinian Action became the first mainstream pro-Palestine protest group to be elevated to the status of 'proscribed' after their infiltration of RAF Brize Norton and the £5m of damage they caused to operational aircraft.  And as for what happened at Glastonbury......

Summer arrived!

Across JUNE there were 26 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 29.0% (-0.8)

Lab  23.3% (+0.5)

Con 18.1% (nc)
LDem 13.8% (-0.5) 
Grn 9.4% (+0.2) 

Oth: 6.4% (+0.6)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The fact that there is so little movement despite many events going on politically, suggests that the parties are by-and-large now at their natural levels and will remain roughly in this area until the end of summer when party conference silly season starts.  Reform led in every single poll in June, with leads of between 2 & 11%   Labour ranged between 21-27% (median 23.0), Reform between 26-34% (median 29.0), the Tories between 15-22% (median 18.0), the LDems between 11-17% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 7-13% (median 9.0).  Of the 26 polls Reform led in every single one of them.  We are now 12 months in to Starmer's government.  The period of the first 12-18 months is the 'golden honeymoon' where new governments are supposed to go up in the polls and conquer all before them - at this period in BoJo's government for example, he was polling over 50% and had won 2 by-elections.  For Starmer, it is now downhill all the way unless he can pull a lot more than a rabbit out of the hat.

If a General Election were held on these JUNE figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 155 (+11),  C 42  (+17), LD 67 (+5), Rfm 319 (-33), SNP 34 (-4), PC 4 (nc), Grn 5 (+1), NI 18, Oth 5 (+2), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a slim working majority. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (137 polls)
Rfm 26.4%, Lab 24.3%, Con 21.4%, LDem 13.4%, Grn 8.9%, Oth 5.6%

Polling figures for June 2025 (26 polls)
Rfm 29.0%, Lab 23.3%, Con 18.1%, LDem 13.8%, Grn 9.4%, Oth 6.4%

Rfm lead over Lab Jun: 5.7%
Rfm lead over Con Jun: 10.9%
Lab lead over Con Jun: 5.2%


OTHER POLLING

Three major MRP polls were carried out over the period.  Averaged, they would produce a Parliament of Rfm 276, Lab 154, Con 80, LDem 72, SNP 33, NI 18, Grn 5, PC 5, Oth 6, Speaker 1.  MRP polls are highly complex affairs that usually involve samples in the tens of thousands across every constituency in the country.  (I have found from experience that usually the truth lies somewhere between the average of a clutch of MRP polls and the average of ordinary polls done over the same period.  In this case, for June that would put Reform at around 297 seats, Labour around 155 and the Tories around 61).

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SCOTLAND

There were two Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 31.0% (-1.0)
SLab. 21.0% (+2.0)
Rfm: 18.5% (-2.5)
SCon: 11.0% (nc)

SLD: 8.5% (-2.5)
SGP: 8.5% (+3.5)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.5/27.0% (+0.5/+0.5)

SLab: 21.0/20.0% (+2.0/+1.5)
Rfm: 16.0/16.0% (-2.5/+5.0)
SCon: 11.5/12.5% (+0.5/-3.0)

SLD: 8.5/9.0% (-1.0/-1.5)

SGP: 8.0/12.0% (+2.0/nc)
Oth: 1.5/5.0% (-0.5/+1.5)

There were two IndyRef polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 48.0% (+5.0), No: 43.0% (-2.0), DK: 9.0% (-2.0)

(Yes: 52.7%, No: 47.3%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

Starmer made a brief foray to Venue Cymru in Llandudno to address the party faithful and had to be smuggled out of the building as it was besieged by irate PIP claimants, farmers, pro-Palestine zombies and several other hostile groups.  

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 24.0%
PC: 24.0%
Lab: 20.0%
Con: 13.0%
LDem: 9.0%

Grn: 6.0%

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month.  Again, note the continued dominance by Plaid & Reform, and the decline of Labour.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Rfm 29.0% (+2.0)

PC 27.0% (-3.0)
Lab 18.0% (nc)

Con 11.0% (-2.0)
Grn: 7.0% (nc)
LDem 7.0% (nc)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 12.0%
Green: 3.0%
AÚ: 2.0% 
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.  What is also starting to cause problems in Irish politics is Ireland's neutral stance clashing with the EU's slowly increasing militarism.

There were two opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 20.0% (-1.3)

FG: 19.5% (+0.5)

SF: 20.5% (-0.8)

SD:  8.0% (nc)

LP:  4.5% (-0.2)

AÚ:  5.0% (+0.7)

II:  5.0% (+0.3)

GP:  2.0% (nc)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth: 12.5% (+1.8) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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