OPINION POLLING FOR JULY 2025

Another monumental month that saw the wars rumble-on and despite repeated threats of assorted natures from various quarters in the west, little movement towards ending them by any of the sides involved and indeed little interest either.

The main events in the UK really were the passing of rock-icon and national treasure Ozzy Osbourne, the Oasis tour (about the only ceasefire that's working), and the UEFA Womens European Championships, (won by England).   

Politically within the UK nothing much has changed strategically other than the announcement of the yet-to-be-named Party to be lead by Jezza, currently called YourParty, but known 'affectionately' in the press as 'Jezbollah' for obvious reasons.   Already Labour is trying to re-brand some of it's policies as it comes under increasing pressure from Reform on it's right flank, and now facing the possibility of Corbyn attacking it from the left.  Early indications from polling show that Labour's attempts are failing.  In all probability Starmer & Labour are probably glad the summer break is here and the press will lose interest and concentrate on the Premier League transfers instead - except for the on-going problems of illegal immigrants and hotels.  A problem that will not go away and one which the overwhelming majority of the British public (around 80%) are at a totally opposite position to to the government, which seems to be deliberately turning a deaf ear despite the fact that just as the problem destroyed the Tories, unless it is dealt with the way the public wants, it will ultimately destroy Labour as well. Labour have embarked on a policy of cooking the books regarding hotels by closing a swathe of smaller ones, replacing them with a couple of big ones thereby pretending they've reduced the number of hotels whereas in reality they've increased the number of hotel beds.  Another 'wizard wheeze' they are doing is to buy hotels outright at way over market value.  they then claim that the resident illegals are living in government accommodation as opposed to hotels.

Meanwhile,  Resident Doctors held their first 5 day strike, as nurses, consultants and GPs  also prepare to take industrial action.


Across JULY there were 22 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Rfm 29.5% (+0.5)

Lab  22.6% (-0.7)

Con 17.9% (-0.2)
LDem 14.0% (+0.2) 
Grn 9.3% (-0.1) 

Oth: 6.7% (+0.3)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

As predicted last month, there is little movement in the polls now the summer doldrums are here.  Polls also now include a representative proportion of 16-18 year-olds.  Reform led in every single poll in July, with leads of between 2-13%   Labour ranged between 20-25% (median 23.0), Reform between 26-34% (median 29.0), the Tories between 16-21% (median 17.5), the LDems between 11-16% (median 14.0), and the Greens between 6-12% (median 9.0). 

If a General Election were held on these JULY figures it would result in a Reform majority government of:-  L 142 (-13),  C 38  (-4), LD 67 (nc), Rfm 335 (+16), SNP 36 (+2), PC 4 (nc), Grn 5 (nc), NI 18, Oth 4 (-1), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform having a working majority of around 25. (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Rfm 6.3%, Grn 5.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.1%

Polling figures for 2024 (322 polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.3%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (159 polls)
Rfm 26.9%, Lab 24.0%, Con 20.9%, LDem 13.5%, Grn 9.0%, Oth 5.8%

Polling figures for July 2025 (22 polls)
Rfm 29.5%, Lab 22.6%, Con 17.9%, LDem 14.0%, Grn 9.3%, Oth 6.7%

Rfm lead over Lab Jul: 6.9%
Rfm lead over Con Jul: 11.6%
Lab lead over Con Jul: 4.7%


OTHER POLLING

According to well-placed media reports, Jeremy Corbyn's new party plans are gathering momentum (pun intended).  It will definitely launch during the summer break, and on resumption of Parliament, 4 Gaza Independents will cross-over and join Jezza and Zara Sultana, along with the first Labour defection - Diane Abbott with more expected to follow.  This means within hours of Parliament opening for it's first session, "Jezbollah" will then consist of at least 7 MPs. Green energy industrialist and major Labour Party donor & billionaire Dale Vance (who used to fund Just Stop Oil and similar rubbish) will also quit Labour, taking up post as Jezza's first party's Chair.  He will donate £60m over the remainder of this Parliament (that's around £17m a year).  Several major Trades Unions will also formally recognise it and break from Labour.  The new group believes it will launch with around 1m members and is already in preliminary talks with the Green Party about an electoral pact and Galloway's Workers Party about it potentially amalgamating.  The remains of the old Momentum organisation will also get behind it providing it's nationwide organisational base along with the SWP and it's franchise (CND, Unite Against Fascism, Stop The War and all that bollocks). who will initially form the activists, particularly in student towns and major urban areas.

There has been a flurry of polls over the last month to try and gauge the impact, and they average as follows:-

Rfm: 29.5%

Lab:  19.3%

Con: 19.0%
LDem: 12.3%
JC: 9.8%
Grn: 5.5%

Oth: 4.6%

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

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SCOTLAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference):-

SNP: 31.0%
SLab. 21.0%
Rfm: 18.5%
SCon: 11.0%

SLD: 8.5%
SGP: 8.5%

There were no Holyrood polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Holyrood polling for reference):-

SNP: 33.5/27.0%

SLab: 21.0/20.0%
Rfm: 16.0/16.0%
SCon: 11.5/12.5%

SLD: 8.5/9.0%

SGP: 8.0/12.0%
Oth: 1.5/5.0%

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 48.0%, No: 43.0%, DK: 9.0%

(Yes: 52.7%, No: 47.3%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

The next planned electoral event in Wales is the Senedd Election, which will take place on 7 May 2026, followed a year later by full slate council elections.  As a result, you can expect to see the amount of polling taking place in Wales to now slowly increase, along with the amount of interest the main parties show in it.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show the last Westminster polling for reference).

Rfm 24.0%
PC: 24.0%
Lab: 20.0%
Con: 13.0%
LDem: 9.0%

Grn: 6.0%

There were two Senedd opinion polls released during the month.  (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling). (Constituency first preference only):-

Rfm 26.5% (-2.5)

PC 23.5% (-3.5)
Lab 25.0% (+7.0)

Con 11.5% (+0.5)

LDem 6.0% (-1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (-2.0)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show the last IndyRef polling for reference):-

Yes: 35.0%, No: 50.0%, DK: 15.0%

(Yes: 41.2%, No: 58.8%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021, Constituency vote)
Lab: 39.9%

Con: 26.1%

Plaid: 20.3%

LDem: 4.9%

Grn: 1.6%

Ref: 1.5%

AWA*: 1.5%

UKIP: 0.8%

Propel: 0.6%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the-post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed-list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party, not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method then used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96 would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations, and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

Green:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 26.0%
DUP: 19.0%

APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 12.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 12.0%
Green: 3.0%
AÚ: 2.0% 
PBP-S: 1.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 43%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all around.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to cause the Irish government considerable problems.

There were two opinion polls released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 20.5% (+0.5)

FG: 18.5% (-1.0)

SF: 21.0% (+0.5)

SD:  7.0% (-1.0)

LP:  4.5% (nc)

AÚ:  3.5% (-1.5)

II:  6.0% (+1.0)

GP:  2.5% (+0.5)

PBP-S: 2.5% (-0.5) 

Oth: 14.0% (+1.5) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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John Michael "Ozzy" Osbourne
03 Dec 1948 - 22 Jul 2025