OPINION POLLING FOR FEBRUARY 2025

 

A month that saw continued fighting in Ukraine,  the Gaza Peace Deal starting to limp badly, and President Trump unleashing a barrage of Presidential Orders.  Germany held a full slate Federal Election which proved decisively indecisive. The Germans - like the Irish, have not quite grasped that if you keep voting roughly the same way, you'll get roughly the same result and things will stay roughly the same.  There will now follow weeks of talks while Germany cobbles together an un-mandated Coalition consisting of virtually the same parties as before, just in a different order.

On the Home Front, Reform started to top the polls regularly and the Prime Minister's domestic policies are floundering badly with job vacancies falling, unemployment rising, inflation about to rise again, business failures rising and the interest the government has to pay on government debt seriously eroding Chancellor Reeves room to manoevre, while at the same time, despite tax rises, her tax take is falling.  Speaking of the Chancellor, she remains mired in ridicule over her CV, Who's Who entry and several other publications of reference.  The Assisted Dying Bill limps on towards the finish line, already bearing little semblance to the Green & White papers at the start of it's journey and the PM faced ridicule from all side over his voice coach.

Across February there were 19 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Lab  24.9% (-0.9)

Con 22.9% (-1.1)
Rfm 26.1%% (+2.0)
LDem 12.9% (+0.6) 
Grn 8.3% (-0.3) 

Oth 5.3% (-0.7)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Labour ranged between 23-28% (median 25.0), Reform between 24-29% (median 25.5), the Tories between 18-26% (median 22.0), the LDems between 12-16% (median 12.5), and the Greens between 6-10% (median 8.0).  Of the 20 polls Labour led in just 4, Reform led in 11,  with the Tories in 2.  The remaining 2 were Lab-Rfm ties.

If a General Election were held on these February figures it would result in a hung Parliament of:-  L 175 (-102),  C 157 (+1), LD 63 (-9), Rfm 187 (+117), SNP 39 (+1), PC2 (-2), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 4 (-6), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Reform being the largest party but around 165 short of a working majority (Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (322polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for 2025 (41 polls)
Lab 25.4%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 25.1%, LDem 12.6%, Grn 8.5%, Oth 4.8%

Polling figures for Feb 2025 (19 polls)
Lab 24.9%, Con 22.9%, Rfm 26.1%, LDem 12.9%, Grn 8.3%, Oth 5.3%

Lab lead over Con Feb: 2.0%
Rfm lead over Lab Feb: 1.2%
Rfm lead over Con Jan: 3.2%

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SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show last polling for reference):-

SNP: 32.0%
Lab: 21.0%
Con: 13.0%

Rfm: 16.0%
LDem: 9.5%
Grn: 5.5%

Oth: 3.0%

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.0/30.0% (+2.0/+2.0)

SLab: 18.0/17.0% (-2.5/-1.0)
SCon: 15.0/15.0% (+2.0/+1.5)

Rfm: 14.0/13.0% (+1.0/+1.5)

SLD: 11.0/11.0% (+2.0/-0.5)

SGP: 6.0/10.0% (-2.0/-1.0)
Oth: 1.0/4.0% (-2.5/-2.5)

One IndyRef poll was released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 48.0% (-0.5), No: 47.0% (+1.0), DK: 5.0% (-0.5)

(Yes: 50.5%, No: 49.5%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There were no  Westminster polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference)

Lab: 33.0%
Rfm 21.0%
Con: 18.0%
PC: 13.0%
Grn: 12%

LDem: 9.0%

Oth: 3.0%

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference) (constituency first preference only):-

Lab 26.0%

Rfm 21.0%
Plaid 19.0%
Con 18.5%
Grn: 6.5%
LDem 6.0%
AWA: 1.0%
UKIP: 1.0%

Oth: 1.0% 

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

TUV: 11.0% 

Green:2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

PBP-S: 2.0% 

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency first preference only):-

SF: 28.0% (-3.0)
DUP: 19.0% (-5.0)

APNI: 14.0% (nc)
UUP: 11.0% (+1.0)
SDLP: 11.0% (+4.0)
TUV: 11.0% (+5.0)
Green: 2.0% (+1.0)
AÚ: 1.0% (-1.0)
PBP-S: 1.0% (nc)
Oth: 3.0% (-5.0)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast, in London and vice versa all round.

There were two opinion polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 22.0% (-0.9)

FG: 20.0% (-0.2)

SF: 22.5% (+0.5)

SD:  7.5% (nc)

LP:  4.0% (+0.5)

AU:  4.0% (nc)

II:  4.0% (+0.5)

GP:  3.0% (nc)

PBP-S: 2.5% (+0.5) 

Oth: 10.5% (+0.4) 

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

Federal elections were held in Germany to elect the 630 members of the 21st Bundestag. The election took place seven months ahead of schedule on 23 Feb.   Results can be viewed here and here

The previous Coalition contained as its three main parties the SPD as the lead, CDU/CSU and the Greens as the other big pillars along with the FDP to make the weight.  The new coalition will consist of the CDU/CSU as the lead, with the SPD & the Greens as the main pillars.  In other words, all this has achieved is a slight re-arrangement of the deckchairs on the Titanic that is the German economy.   Very quickly,  the Germans are going to realise that voting broadly the same way only gets the same result.   Germany is locked into its worst economic downturn since the 1929 crash, with literally no idea how to get out of it.   

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