OPINION POLLING FOR JANUARY 2025

 

A month that started with two terror attacks in the US - one the tragedy in New Orleans carried out by a self-radicalised ex-serviceman and the other in Las Vegas carried out by another ex-serviceman who appears to have been under considerable relationship stress in his home life.  Donald Trump was inaugurated as the President of the United States (POTUS) and immediately unleashed a barrage of Presidential Orders.   Ceasefires broke out across the Middle East and the first hostages were released.

Domestically, Starmer's government is starting to bog down and struggle, as it's efforts to get the economy moving are actually having the exact opposite effect.   The Chagos Deal looks virtually dead in the water unless it is radically re-written and after a grovelling apology, Lord Mandelson became the UK Ambassador to the USA (for now).

Labour continues to decline in the polls, breaking its own records for being the most unpopular government on record after such a short time.  They have now been the most unpopular elected government for the time in Office for each of he last 5 months, breaking their own record with each successive month. The Tories are in free-fall and Reform continues to climb and are now clearly in second place.

Looking forward to the local elections in May, the requested delays (meaning some councillors will have held their seats for more than 7 years without facing voters) will deny potentially 30m people their vote.  That is 10m more than Covid managed to interrupt in 2020.

Across January there were 22 Westminster polls.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Lab  25.8% (-0.8)

Con 23.2% (-2.1)
Rfm 24.1%% (+2.5)
LDem 12.3% (+0.4) 
Grn 8.6% (+0.7) 

Oth 6.0% (-0.7)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

Labour ranged between 22-30% (median 26.0), Reform between 22-27% (median 23.5), the Tories between 20-26% (median 23.0), the LDems between 10-14% (median 12.0), and the Greens between 7-13% (median 8.0).  Of the 22 polls Labour led in just over half with 13, Reform in 2 with the the Tories in one.  The remaining 6 were ties with 2 Lab-Con, 2 Lab-Rfm and 2 Rfm-Con

If a General Election were held on these January figures it would result in a hung Parliament of:-  L 277 (+11),  C 156 (-38), LD 72 (+12), Rfm 70 (-4), SNP 38 (+16), PC 4 (nc), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 10 (+3), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Labour being the largest party but around 45 short of a working majority (Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (322polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for Jan 2025 (22 polls)
Lab 25.8%, Con 23.2%, Rfm 24.1%, LDem 12.3%, Grn 8.6%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con Jan: 2.6%
Lab lead over Rfm Jan: 1.7%
Rfm lead over Con Jan:0.9%

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SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There were two Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 32.0% (-0.5)
Lab: 21.0% (+1.0)
Con: 13.0% (-1.0)

Rfm: 16.0% (+1.0)
LDem: 9.5% % (+0.5)
Grn: 5.5% (-0.5)

Oth: 3.0% (-0.5)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 33.0/28.0% (-3.0/-1.0)

SLab: 20.5/18.0% (+0.5/+0.5)
SCon: 13.0/13.5% (-1.5/-1.5)

Rfm: 13.0/11.5% (+1.5/+0.5)

SLD: 9.0/11.5% (-0.5/+1.5)

SGP: 8.0/11.0% (+2.0/+0.5)
Oth: 3.5/6.5% (+1.0/nc)

Two IndyRef polls were released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 50.0% (-0.5), No: 45.0% (+1.0), DK: 5.0% (-0.5)

(Yes: 52.6%, No: 47.4%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There were no  Westminster polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference)

Lab: 33.0%
Rfm 21.0%
Con: 18.0%
PC: 13.0%
Grn: 12%

LDem: 9.0%

Oth: 3.0%

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference) (constituency first preference only):-

Lab 26.0%

Rfm 21.0%
Plaid 19.0%
Con 18.5%
Grn: 6.5%
LDem 6.0%
AWA: 1.0%
UKIP: 1.0%

Oth: 1.0% 

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.   (figures show the last polling figures for reference):-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP: 10.0% 

TUV: 11.0% 

Green:2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

PBP-S: 2.0% 

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month. (figures show the last polling figures for reference) (constituency first preference only):-

SF: 29.0%
DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
UUP: 10.0%
SDLP: 10.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Green: 2.0%
AÚ: 1.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

The Republic finally managed to form a government, remarkably similar to the last one and it will fail and fall just as the last one did.

There was one opinion poll released during the month, the first since the election in November. Independent Ireland (II) is now listed as a stand-alone political group in its own right.

FF: 22.9%

FG: 21.2%

SF: 22.0%

SD:  7.5%

LP:  3.5%

AU:  4.0%

II:  3.5%

GP:  3.0%

PBP-S: 2.0%

Oth: 10.1%

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

The German Federal Elections will take place later this month and will see the current ruling SPD utterly humiliated.

CDU/CSU - 30.0% (-1.2)

AfD - 20.7% (+1.9)

SPD - 16.0% (-0.5)
Grune - 13.5% (+0.6)

BSW - 5.3% (-0.7)

FDP - 4.1% (+0.1)

Die Linke - 3.2% (nc)

FW - 1.9% (-0.4)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style Tories with a sprinkling of ReformUK, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist nationalists'  or even 'national socialist').  In essence, AfD & BSW are both populist with AfD being notionally of the Nationalist-Right and BSW being notionally of the Nationalist-Left.)

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