OPINION POLLING FOR DECEMBER 2024

A month highlighted by the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the country now appears to be heading on the right path of becoming a liberalised multi-ethnic, multi-religious country -but it's a long road and will require major shifts in position by certain groups in the country and also interested foreign powers such as the US & France.  The terrible terrorist attack in Magdeburg in Germany took place on the 20 Dec leaving 5 dead & 299 wounded.

On the Home Front Starmer announced his great policy 'reset' in which he hoped to clarify Labour's position over Inheritance Tax, Winter Fuel Payments etc etc.  All it achieved was to enrage people even more and convince even seasoned political journalists that he was totally out of touch, not listening and not particularly interested.  'Rachel-From-Accounts' fiefdom - the Treasury, dropped her in it a bit by firstly saying they had nothing to do with her Budget - it had been delivered to them by her in a fait accompli, then adding that they hadn't done any cost analysis on it either.  A major breach of Labour pre-election guarantees and a major story that never got the coverage it deserved because the headlines were full of Prince Handy-Andy and the Chinese spy.

Overseas,  Labour's Chagos Islands deal with Mauritius (really a Starmer 'bribe' to China) appears to have fallen off a cliff and will more than likely now be vetoed by the incoming Trump administration leaving Labour in the embarrassing position of having to scrap a flagship policy.   In a normal government the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy - who has staked his credibility and reputation on the deal, would resign.  But this isn't a normal government and credibility and reputation count for naught.   Starmer's anti-corruption City Minister Tulip Siddiq, is herself under investigation for corruption by Bangladeshi Authorities. Part of the case against her is she was apparently given a two-bedroom apartment near King’s Cross in central London in 2004 as a gift by a businessman linked to a political party led by her aunt back in Bangladesh. She accepted without making any payment (Land Registry documents state that the transfer to her was “not for money or anything that has a monetary value”).   A further apartment in Hampstead gifted to her sister and then apparently transferred to her is also involved as well as other 'gift incidents'.  She has already been questioned over involvement in a £4bn nuclear power deal in Bangladesh.   Lord Mandelson was announced as Ambassador-to-be to the USA.  'Mandy' has made some choice remarks about Trump in the past and was most definitely not the Foreign Office Mandarin's choice, so this could be worth a watch if and when it goes wrong.  The utter farce that is France continues and it remains without effective government, likewise the Netherlands.

Labour continues to slide in the Polls in what is their 'golden' first year of government.  The first 12 months are supposed to be the best 12 months for a new government so unless Starmer/Reeves can pull a very large rabbit out of a progressively shrinking magician's hat,  years 2,3 & 4 are going to be absolutely dreadful for them.  Analysts - including their own, are already predicting a huge decline in their vote in the local election in less than 20 weeks time.  That may seem inconsequential,  but it is complicated for a government to get domestic measures implemented at ground level if the local authorities are run by hostile parties.  The Tories are performing no better as Farage's Reform UK continues to cause chaos by their presence.

This was the first month where three parties all polled over 20% since the 2010 General Election, which resulted in the Con-LDem Coalition, however, in that instance, the Tories were over 30%. Labour was just 1% under and Clegg's LDems were roughly where Reform are now.  All three of the current polling 'big three' are well under 30% and that makes for a highly unstable result in the distortion that is our constituency system, especially when considering that parties are more concentrated in some regions in comparison to others,it becomes acutely apparent when mixed with purely regional parties such as SNP and Plaid Cymru.  The SNP, for example, might well poll less than 4% nationally, but they don't stand nationally - they only stand in Scotland where thanks to sterling work by John Swinney in Scotland and Stephen Flynn in Westminster, they have thrown off the shadow of Hamza Yousaf and Nicola Sturgeon and once again are well in front of their main rivals and arch-enemies Scottish Labour and have re-started their aim of completely wiping out Labour north of the border.

Across December there were 10 Westminster polls and several in-depth MRP studies released during the month at various times by the major polling agencies.  The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month's polling):-

Lab  26.6% (-1.3) 

Con 25.3% (-1.5)
Rfm 21.6%% (+2.6)
LDem 11.9% (-0.3) 
Grn 7.9% (+1.2) 

Oth 6.7% (-0.5)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 23-28% (median 25.5), Labour between 23-30% (median 26.5), Reform between 19-25% (median 21.0), the LDems between 11-14% (median 11.5), and the Greens between 7-10% (median 7.5%). Labour led in 6 of the polls with one being tied with the Tories (MiC 06-10 Dec) and the Tories led in three (MiC 29 Nov-02 Dec, FON 04 Dec, & MiC MRP 31 Oct-16 Dec)  with the gaps for Labour's lead being from minus 2 to 6% (median 1.0%).   

If a General Election were held on these December figures and also averaged with the two Stonehaven & More In Common MRP studies along with the JLP POLARIS study,  it would result in a hung Parliament of:-  L 266 (-35),  C 194 (-21), LD 60 (-6), Rfm 74 (+66), SNP 22 (nc), PC 4 (+1), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 7 (-5), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets show movement from last month) with Labour being the largest party but around 50 short of a working majority (Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (322polls)

Lab 36.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 15.0%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.5%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 12.33%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for Dec (10 polls)
Lab 26.6%, Con 25.3%, Rfm 21.6%, LDem 11.9%, Grn 7.9%, Oth 6.7%

Lab lead over Con Dec: 1.2%

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SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There were two Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 32.5% (+2.0)
Lab: 20.0% (-5.5)
Con: 14.0% (-1.0)

Rfm: 15.0% (+1.5)
LDem: 9.0% % (+1.0)
Grn: 6.0% (+0.5)

Oth: 3.5% (+1.5)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 36.0.0/29.0% (+3.5/+1.0)

SLab: 20.0/17.5% (-5.0/-6.0)
SCon: 14.5/15.0% (nc/+0.5)

Rfm: 11.5/11.5 (+1.0/+0.5)

SLD: 9.5/10.0% (nc/+1.0)

SGP: 6.0/10.5% (nc/+1.0)
Oth: 2.5/6.5% (+0.5/+2.0)

Two IndyRef polls were released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 50.5% (+5.0), No: 44.0% (-3.0), DK: 5.5% (-2.0)

(Yes: 53.4%, No: 46.6%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There were no  Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show the last polling figures for reference)

Lab: 33.0%
Rfm 21.0%
Con: 18.0%
PC: 13.0%
Grn: 12%

LDem: 9.0%

Oth: 3.0%

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show the last polling figures for reference) (constituency first preference only):-

Lab 26.0%

Rfm 21.0%
Plaid 19.0%
Con 18.5%
Grn: 6.5%
LDem 6.0%
AWA: 1.0%
UKIP: 1.0%

Oth: 1.0% (nc)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first-past-the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   This will be scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at the Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There was one Assembly opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (first preference):-

SF: 29.0% (-2.0)
DUP: 19.0% (-5.0)
APNI: 13.0% -1.0)
UUP: 10.0% (nc)
SDLP: 10.0% (+3.0)
TUV: 11.0% (+5.0)
Green: 2.0% (+1.0)
AÚ: 1.0% (-1.0)
PBP-S: 2.0% (+1.0)
Oth: 3.0% (-5.0)

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

Following last month's General Election, The Republic is struggling to cobble and hold together a cohesive government.

There were no opinion polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)

SF: 19.5%

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%

GP: 3.0%

LP: 4.7%

SD: 4.8%

PBP-S: 2.8%

AÚ: 3.9%

Oth/Ind: 18.6%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

Germany is undergoing a significant shift to the Right and to what could be termed as 'populist' form of it in the shape of the AfD.  The SPD, FPD and Green Party Coalition Government in Germany collapsed. The country will hold an early General Election on Sunday, 23 February 2025.  Just as in Ireland, France & the Netherlands; immigration, housing and economic difficulties will be the main issues.

CDU/CSU - 31.5% (-1.2)

AfD - 18.8% (+0.6)

SPD - 16.5% (+1.1)
Grune - 12.9% (+1.6)

BSW - 6.0% (-2.4)

FDP - 4.0% (-0.2)

Die Linke - 3.2% (-0.3)

FW - 2.3% (-4.2)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style Tories with a sprinkling of ReformUK, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist nationalists'  or even 'national socialist').  In essence, AfD & BSW are both populist with AfD being notionally of the Nationalist-Right and BSW being notionally of the Nationalist-Left.)

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