OPINION POLLING FOR NOVEMBER 2024

Peace is starting to crawl out from the bomb shelters in the Middle East - but as history shows, it's usually illusory and always only temporary.  The war between Ukraine and Russia will probably end not long after Trump takes over as both sides now seem tired and more open to the idea of not laying each other to waste.

Starmer globe-trots trying to 'big' himself up on the international stage but apparently to little effect, with the big players largely ignoring him. His government is now finding that actually being in power is a radically different thing from being in Opposition and is starting to struggle to make headway with the economic outlook now looking bleak due to Chancellor Reeves' budget. He has suffered his first major resignation - his transport Secretary Louise Haigh, amidst rumours it was almost certainly instigated from within his own party following her remarks about P&O earlier in the year.   Badenoch is now leading the Tories and is slowly finding her feet.  The Tories were ahead in roughly a third of the polls for this month.  Reform remains fairly static but is growing in local organisation - particularly in the English Midlands, Northern England & South Wales at a phenomenal rate - faster than any party since Labour was taken over by the unions a few years after World War 1 and the Lib Dems continue to be a comedy act.

Labour has collapsed in the public's esteem faster in its first six months than any government since the Great Depression and has lost a higher percentage of council by-elections than any previous government in its first six months ever - and this is supposed to be the 'honeymoon period' where new governments are at the peak of their popularity.

Across November there were 14 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab  27.9% (-1.4) 

Con 26.8% (+1.7)
Rfm 19.0%% (-0.1)
LDem 12.2% (-0.4) 
Grn 6.7% (-0.8) 

Oth 7.4% (+1.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't know and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 24-30% (median 27.0), Labour between 25-30% (median 27.5), Reform between 17-22% (median 19.5), the LDems between 11-14% (median 12.5), and the Greens between 7-9% (median 8.0%). Labour led in all bar four polls (MiC 8-11, 19-23 & 26-27, & FON 27 Nov) with the gap from minus 3 to 6% (median 1.5%).   

If a General Election were held on these November figures it would result in a hung Parliament of:-  L 301 (-43),  C215(+50), LD66 (-6), Rfm 8 (-2), SNP 22 (nc), PC 3 (-1), Grn 4 (nc), NI 18, Oth 12 (+2), Speaker 1 (figures in brackets movement from last month) with Labour being the largest party but short of a majority (Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats). 

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Lab 44.9%, Con 27.1%,  LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (312polls)

Lab 37.6%, Con 24.5%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 11.1%, Grn 6.4%, Oth 6.2%

Lab lead over Con 2024: 14.56%

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

Polling figures for Nov (14 polls)
Lab 27.9%, Con 26.8%, Rfm 19.0%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.7%, Oth 7.4%

Lab lead over Con Nov: 1.1%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 35.3%, SNP 30.0%, Con 12.7%, LDem 9.7%, Rfm 7.0%, Grn 3.8% , Oth 1.6%

Lab lead over Con: 10.00%

There were 2 Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Lab: 25.5%% (+2.5)
SNP: 30.5% (+0.5)

Con: 15.0% (nc)
LDem: 8.0% % (-2.0)
Rfm: 13.5% (-0.5)

Grn: 5.5% (-0.5)

Oth: 2.0% (nc)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 32.5.0/28.0% (-0.5/nc)

SCon: 14.5/14.5% (+2.5/+0.5)

SLab: 25.0/23.5% (-5.0/-4.5)

SLD: 9.5/9.0% (+1.5/+2.0)

SGP: 6.0/9.5% (+1.0/+1.5)

Oth: 12.5/15.5% (+0.5/+0.5)

Two IndyRef polls were released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

Yes: 45.5% (-1.5), No: 47.0% (nc), DK: 7.5% (+1.5)

(Yes: 49.2%, No: 50.8%)

(General Election 2024)

SLab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

SCon: 12.7%

SLD: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
SGP: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)

Lab 37.0%, Con 18.2%, Rfm 16.9% PC 14.8%, LDem 6.5% Grn 4.7%, Oth 6.6%

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling in July's General Election)

Lab: 33.0% (-4.0)
Con: 18.0% (-0.2)
PC: 13.0% (-1.8)
LDem: 9.0% (+2.5)
Rfm 21.0% (+4.1)
Grn: 12% (+1.9)

Oth 3.0% (-3.7)

There were two Senedd opinion polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from the last polling) (constituency first preference only):-

Lab 26.0% (-11.0)
Con 18.5% (-4.0)
Plaid 22.0% (+3.5)
LDem 6.0% (+0.5)
Grn: 6.5% (+1.5)
Rfm 21.0% (+15.5)
AWA  - (-1.0)  
UKIP -  (nc)

Oth 1.0% (nc)

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently, it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 (see explanation here)and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party-appointed delegates as opposed to people-appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

General Election 2024 (1 poll)
SF: 27.0%, DUP: 22.1%, APNI: 15.0%, UUP: 12.2%, SDLP: 11.1%, TUV: 6.2%

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.  Use General Election figures for reference.

There were no Assembly opinion polls released during the month.

(General Election 2024)
DUP: 22.1%

UUP: 12.2%
TUV: 6.2%
APNI: 15.0%
SF: 27.0%
SDLP: 11.1%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

There was one poll during the month - a General Election, which appears to have solved nothing.  The first preference voting was:-

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GERMANY

Germany is undergoing a significant shift to the Right and to what could be termed as 'populism' forms of it.  The SPD, FPD and Green Party Coalition Government in Germany have collapsed and a Confidence vote will be held in January 2025. The country will then move to an early General Election pencilled in for March 2025.  Just as in Ireland, immigration, housing and economic difficulties will be the main issues.

AfD - 18.2% (+0.3)

CDU/CSU - 32.7% (+1.1)
FW - 6.5% (+4.2)

FDP - 4.2% (+0.4)

Grune - 11.3% (+0.6)

SPD - 15.4% (-0.5)

Die Linke - 3.5% (+0.5)
BSW - 8.4% (+0.4)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style Tories with a sprinkling of ReformUK, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist nationalists'  or even 'national socialist').  In essence, AfD & BSW are both populist with AfD being notionally of the Nationalist-Right and BSW being notionally of the Nationalist-Left.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

USA

The USA held its elections and a round-up of the results can be seen here.   President-elect Trump is now forming his new administration, which will take office in late January and will almost immediately start carrying out major changes in policies and a dramatic change in US direction, which will have major reverberations globally.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


A very Merry Xmas and prosperous New Year to both my readers.