OPINION POLLING FOR DECEMBER 2022

Across DECEMBER there were 25 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month).

Con 26.6% (+0.4)
Lab 46.4% (-1.5)
LDem 8.7% (-0.2)
Grn 5.2% (+0.4) 
Rfm 6.1% (+1.0)
Oth 7.0% (nc)
Ave Lab lead over Con for October:- 19.76%% (-1.98)


The Tories swung between 19-30%, Labour between 43-51% and the LDems between 7-10%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 25 polls and breached 50% once and on one occasion showed a 27% lead ( PeoplePolling, 07 Dec).   Labour led in every poll with leads of between 13%-27%.

If a General Election were conducted on these DECEMBER figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L425, C134, SNP53, LD15, PC3, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 200.

Polls were fairly static throughout December and this is reflected in the monthly averages barely shifting.   The Tories will take greater cheer from this than Labour, given that they are continuing to slowly claw their way back bit-by-bit despite all the on-going industrial disputes, the NHS problems and the continuing 'channel boats' fiasco (in 8 weeks they have reduced Labour's lead from an average 28% to 19% now).  Perhaps of bigger note is for the second month running, the Richard Tice/Nigel Farage 'Reform Party' (a re-branded Brexit Party) has polled higher than the long-established Green Party.

Strikes continue to headline across the economy however polling shows that support for the two 'biggies' - the health workers and the rail workers, is falling quite quickly with just the health workers remaining with a moderate level of public support - but not for a 19% settlement which is viewed by the majority as unaffordable.   The rail strike is starting to fragment,  with one third of RMT members now believing the employers offer should be accepted and the RMT struggling to get willing pickets at as many locations as they would like.

Inflation continues to haunt the entire industrialised world, with the UK headline figures for November (December's full figures do not get released until 18 Jan) showing a small fall being  RPI 14.0%,  CPI 10.7%, CPIH 9.3%.   However, looking at food alone - which has a bigger impact the less well paid you are, the current CPI figure is 13.3%, with fresh food at 14.3%,  This is all fairly in line with the european average where they do not use RPI/CPI like we do, but something similar to our CPIH.  The USA is around a third lower, in the main because they are largely energy self-sufficient (thanks to not being halfwits regarding fracking gas) and their interest rates are higher, thus attracting inward international investment over UK and Europe. Inflation will fall in the west in the coming months but not by much and not very quickly.

Covid rears it's ugly head again with China now deservedly reaping the consequences of their ridiculous 'Zero Covid' policy and all the damage it has done to western economies due to disruptions to the supply chain.  The current variant wreaking vengeance in China is Omicron BF.7, which they have little resistance too but has been present here in the west for months where because of high vaccination rates, quality vaccines and easing of restrictions (meaning increased exposure and thus increased anti-body production), has little effect on our populations (most people in UK now come into contact with various forms of Covid more than once a day and as a result, our anti-body systems are rapidly gaining dominance), with most people here who contract it developing no symptoms at all and the remainder mostly getting something akin to a mild cold.  This is the reason for politicians in the west throwing the ignorant public (who are demanding tighter controls for no scientific reason whatsoever),  a bone regarding flights from China,  but making it largely advisory as opposed to enforced.  Omicron BF.7 poses no risk to us and flu is deadlier. Indeed, there is a far more virulent and harmful mutation - Omicron XBB.1.5 'KRAKEN'  present all over western Europe and North America (it is particularly present in Wirral and east London), that is believed to have originated in the USA.  So if anything we pose a greater risk to China than they do to us.  However although it poses more of a risk to us than BF.7, it is far far less of a risk than previous variants to have hit UK.

There were several Brexit-related polls commissioned during the month, tellingly by Rejoin-centric media and organisations, with the questions 'loaded' to get the answer they wanted as opposed to the true picture.  The latest being a Savanta internet poll commissioned by 'The Independent' newspaper among their readership purporting to show 66% of people want another referendum.  It shows nothing of the sort and like most Brexit-related polls, once you drill down into the numbers, sampling techniques etc etc the figures are always around 50/50, +/- 5%.  What the poll actually shows is that 66% of 'Independent' readers with internet access want another referendum - which is an entirely different thing. (It's also quite low being as the Independent and it's readership is overwhelmingly pro-Rejoin so you would have expected a higher result).

Energy prices to the consumer should start to fall in the coming months as wholesale gas and oil prices are now lower than when Russia invaded Ukraine.  Indeed the cost of a full tank of diesel for my car has fallen from marginally over £100 a couple of months ago to around £80 now.  The downside to this is the much demanded (and advised against) 'Windfall Tax' on energy giants is now likely to yield little if any income at all this coming year, and only a small amount for 2022, but an estimated 30,000 energy-related workers in UK will lose their jobs as energy giants have shifted investment and production away from UK to avoid the tax anyway.

The current crisis in the NHS is not unique to the UK - virtually all the 'Premier League' countries in Europe and North America are having identical major problems and all have major shortages of staff.  France , Germany , Italy , Ireland and even the Swiss (along with most of europe and even Canada & the USA), reporting massive A+E waiting times, shortages of beds, shortages of nurses,  shortages of doctors, shortages of ambulances and in some cases even shortages of medicines and basic medical supplies.  A+E wait times in parts of Canada are now over 40 hours and in parts of non-metropolitan France over 36 hours for example.   The main driving force for this appears to be the hospital systems still applying covid policies (that don't actually work) whereas the population at large no longer does and as a result expects the system to have returned to pre-covid operation.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for Dec (25 polls)

Con 26.6%, Lab 46.4%, LDem 8.7%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 6.1%, Oth 7.0%

Lab lead over Con Oct: 19.76%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during Dec (figure in brackets compared to last polling).

SNP: 45.7% (+4.7), SCon: 15.3% (-0.7), SLab: 28.0% (-3.0), SLD: 6.0% (-2.0), Oth: 6.0% (+2.0)

(GE 2019 - SNP: 45.0%, SCon: 25.1%, SLab: 18.6%, SLDem: 9.5%, Oth: 1.8%).

There were three Holyrood polls released during Dec (figure in brackets compared to last polling)

SNP: 46.0/38.3% , SCon: 15.0/15.0%,  SLab: 25.7/23.0%, SLD: 7.3/7.3%, SGP: 3.0/12.3%, Oth: 3.0/4.1%

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLD: 6.9/5.1%, SGP: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

There were five IndyRef polls released during the month as follows (figure in brackets compared to last month):-

Yes: 48.8% (-0.2),  No: 43.6% (-1.4) DK: 7.6% (+1.6)

(Y: 52.8%, N: 47.2%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (Figures in brackets in comparison to last polling in October):-

Lab: 51% (nc), Con: 18% (-6), PC: 13% (nc), LDem: 4% (-2), Rfm 8% (+3), Grn: 4% (+1), Oth 2%.(-4)

(GE2019  - Lab 40.9%, Con 36.1%, PC 9.9%, LDem 6.0%, Grn 1.0%, BXP 5.4%, Oth 0.7%)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month.  (figure in brackets compared to last polling):-

Lab 44%, Con 17%, Plaid 20%, LDem 6%, Grn: 3%, Rfm 7%, Oth 7%

(Senedd 2021 - Lab 39.9/36.2%, Con 26.1/25.1%, Plaid 20.3/20.7%, LDem 4.9/4.3%, Grn: 1.6/3.6%, AWA 1.5/3.7%, Ref 1.5/1.1%, UKIP 0.8/1.6%, Propel 0.6/0.9%

(AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly accountable representatives.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock and will fold this month or early next in an attempt to try (and almost definitely fail) to break the dead-lock.  When Westminster finally accepts it is not going to sit, allows it to fall and fresh elections are held, it will achieve nothing as the election will be fought entirely over the Protocol.  The current dead-lock concerns the DUP and it's steadfast opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol (which effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market despite it being an integral element of the UK). The DUP will not accept the Protocol and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped.  That position will not change while the DUP is the largest Unionist party and that is all there is to it. Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though.  For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again.

There were no Westmister polls released during Dec.

There were no Assembly polls released during Dec.

(GE2019:-
SF 22.8%, DUP 30.6%, NIAP 16.8%, UUP 11.7%, SDLP 14.9%, Oth 3.2%)

(Assembly 2022:-
SF 29.0%,  DUP 21.3%, NIAP 13.5%, UUP 11.2%, SDLP 9.1%, TUV 7.6%, PBP 1.2%, Oth 7.1%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were two polls released during the month. ((figure in brackets compared to last polling):-

SF: 34.0% (+1.0)

FF: 19.0% (+1.0)

FG: 23.0% (+1.0)

GP: 4.0% (nc)

LP: 3.0% (nc)

SD: 3.0% (nc)

S-PBP: 2.0% -1.0) 

AÚ: 4.0% (+2.0)

Oth/Ind: 8.0% (-4.0)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

US MID-TERMS

The final results of the US Mid-Terms held on 08 Nov came in during mid-Dec (yes, 4 weeks is standard in their elections).   The Democrats didn't do as badly as expected and the Republicans didn't do as well.    The Speaker - Democrat Nancy Pelosi, has got to be replaced however the Democrats do not hold enough seats to vote their choice in and the Republicans remain split between two of theirs.   The post cannot be re-occupied until a clear majority is obtained and without a Speaker, the House of Representatives cannot sit.   The role of Speaker in the US is radically different to our Speaker in Parliament and is actually their version of the Prime Minister/First Minister of State.  Until a Speaker is elected, the House cannot sit and no legislation or budgets can be passed.   There is no way of 'imposing' a Speaker nor is there any way of by-passing the process - the Speaker must be selected by a majpority vote and nothing can be done until one is.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~