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03 December, 2022

OPINION POLLING FOR NOVEMBER 2022






Across NOVEMBER there were 34 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month).


Con 26.2% (+2.7)
Lab 47.9% (-3.8)
LDem 8.9% (-0.8)
Grn 4.8% (+0.3) 
Rfm 5.1% (+1.5)
Oth 7.0% (nc)
Ave Lab lead over Con for November:- 21.74% (-6.4)


The Tories swung between 21-30%, Labour between 44
-51% and the LDems between 7-11%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 34 polls and even breached 50% 8 times (a dramatic fall from the 36 times of last month) and on four occasions showed a 26% lead ( PeoplePolling, 01 Nov, YouGov 02- Nov, People Polling 18 Nov & DeltaPoll 19 Nov).   Labour led in every poll with leads of between 15%-26%.

If a General Election were conducted on these NOVEMBER figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L459, C110, SNP41, LD17, PC3, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 188.

A politically more stable month than the last 3 and that is reflected in the opinion polls.  Should a Tory recovery continue at this pace (it won't) they would be back in front in around 4 months.  Tory strategists believe Labour''s lead is nowhere near as big as the polls suggest, which is being 'flattered' by the people refusing to answer pollsters being predominantly Tory voters.   This is possibly reflected in the City of Chester by-election result in which Labour held their seat, but their lead percentage-wise was only 11.2% - which although healthy, is far lower than the national polling and far lower than expected, however this was on the back of an absolutely atrocious turn-out and significant groups of people do not vote in by-elections the way they do in national elections.

Starmer and his strategists clearly see their main weak points as being trust over Brexit and trust over economic competence.   To that end he again stated several times during the month that Labour would not re-join the Single Market or the Customs Union, would not seek Regulatory Alignment with the EU, would not re-introduce freedom of movement and would not increase public spending at a rate higher than growth in GDP for the entirety of a first Parliament.    The 'Prawn Cocktail' offensive also continued, but the consensus among business leaders is that although Starmer and Reeves are very nice people, they bring nothing new or original to the table and don't inspire confidence.

Warnings over the 'windfall tax' appear to be coming true, with a slew of energy companies scrapping North Sea projects and reducing or even cancelling investment programmes.  The net effect looks like ending up that despite the 'windfall tax', tax revenues from the energy companies will actually fall because their UK-generated profits will fall.

Strikes continue unabated, however the vast bulk of these are in the private sector unlike the 1970's were the bulk were in the public sector and in nationalised industries.  Government's stance seems to be to maintain an overwatch position while happily watching the unions burn through their funds paying strike pay.  New legislation is also being considered which will make it illegal for unions to embark on waves of strikes off the back of just one ballot - government is exploring changes so that it will require a fresh ballot before each strike action, which must be conducted after the previous strike action has completed.  This will severely hamper the current union strategy of waves of one-day strikes.  Of note is the fact that Labour - unlike in previous times, is not supporting the size of the pay claims of any group currently embroiled in industrial action.

The inflation situation across the western world is still severe however it is thought to be at around it's peak now and start falling early in the new year.  China's ridiculous addiction to 'Zero Covid' is still causing supply-chain problems (not to mention massive internal security & civil disobedience problems within China itself), however the war in Ukraine looks like it is now entering a 'winter break' as far as major ground activity is concerned and this may actually cause both sides to reflect and enter into some form of negotiation - although I wouldn't hold my breath.

Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (305 polls)
Con 31.3%, Lab 42.0%, LDem 10.6%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.5%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 10.62%

Polling figures for Nov (34 polls)
Con 26.2%, Lab 47.9%, LDem 8.9%, Grn 4.8%, Rfm 5.1%, Oth 7.0%
Lab lead over Con Oct: 21.74%

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SCOTLAND

There was one Westminster poll released during Nov (figure in brackets compared to last polling).

SNP: 41% (-3.5), SCon: 16% (+1.5), SLab: 31% (+0.75), SLD: 8% (+1.5), Oth: 4% (-0.25)

(GE 2019 - SNP: 45%, SCon: 25.1%, SLab: 18.6%, SLDem: 9.5%, Oth: 1.8%).


There were no Holyrood polls released during Nov. 

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLD: 6.9/5.1%, SGP: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).


There was one IndyRef poll released during the month as follows (figure in brackets compared to last month):-

Yes: 49% (+4),  No: 45% (-2) DK: 6% (-2.0)
(Y: 52.1%, N: 47.9%)

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WALES

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. 

(GE2019 
Lab 40.9%, Con 36.1%, PC 9.9%, LDem 6.0%, Grn 1.0%, BXP 5.4%, Oth 0.7%)


There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. 

(Senedd 2021 - Lab 39.9/36.2%, Con 26.1/25.1%, Plaid 20.3/20.7%, LDem 4.9/4.3%, Grn: 1.6/3.6%, AWA 1.5/3.7%, Ref 1.5/1.1%, UKIP 0.8/1.6%, Propel 0.6/0.9%

(AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains suspended and a fresh election will almost certainly take place early next year to try (and almost definitely fail) to break the dead-lock.  The current dead-lock concerns the DUP and it's steadfast opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol (which effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market despite it being an integral element of the UK). The DUP will not accept the Protocol and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped.  That position will not change while the DUP is the largest Unionist party and that is all there is to it. Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though.  For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again.

Westminster passed legislation during the month to extend the deadline for collapsing Stormont until early next year. There are several technical terms for this - shuffling deck chairs on the titanic, flogging a dead horse, 
carrying water in a sieve, trying to herd cats, plaiting fog.   The DUP are not going to shift position (why should they) and will prevent Stormont sitting while the Northern Ireland Protocol remains in place and the sooner London, Dublin and Brussels accept that the sooner normal politics in Northern Ireland will resume.  And not before.

There were no Westmister polls released during Nov.

(GE2019:-
SF 22.8%, DUP 30.6%, NIAP 16.8%, UUP 11.7%, SDLP 14.9%, Oth 3.2%)


There was one Assembly poll released during Nov (figure in brackets compared to last polling in July):-

SF 32% (+2.0)DUP 27% (+3.0), NIAP 15% (-1.0)UUP 9% (-2.0)SDLP 7% (nc), TUV 5% (-1.0), PBP 1% (nc), Oth 4% (-1.0)


(Assembly 2022 :-
SF 29.0%,  DUP 21.3%, NIAP 13.5%, UUP 11.2%, SDLP 9.1%, TUV 7.6%, PBP 1.2%, Oth 7.1%)


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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were three polls during the month (comparison to last month in brackets):-


SF: 33.0% (-3.0)
FF: 18.0% (+2.0)
FG: 22.0% (+1.0)
GP: 4.0% (+2.0)
LP: 3.0% (-1.0)
SD: 3.0% (-2.0)
S-PBP: 3.0% -1.0) 
AÚ: 2.0% (-1.0)
Oth/Ind: 12.0% (+3.0)

(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth: 13.5%

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