OPINION POLLING FOR FEBRUARY 2022

                         

Across February there were 23 polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month). 

Con 33.6% (+1.4%) 

Lab 39.7% (-0.4%)

LDem 10.2% (-0.4%)

Grn  5.7% (+0.2%)

Rfm 3.2% (-0.4%)

Oth 7.7% (-0.1%)

Ave Lab lead over Con for Feb: 6.09% (-1.76%)

A month of two halves that the all-up monthly total fails to reflect (but probably will next month). Labour's lead of the last couple of months over the Tories starting to drop as the month ground on.   

Tory support swung between 32-35%, Labour's between 37-42% and the LDems between 8-13%/  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% ten times during the 23 polls and on one occasion showed a 10% lead (Redfield & Wilton, 07 Feb). Labour led in every poll with leads of between 3% - 10%.

Obviously,  the Russian invasion in the latter stages of the month will eventually filter through to the voter - and indeed the drop in the Labour lead later in the month may well be an early indication of this as voters are exposed more to government spokespeople in the media.  The medium and long term impact to the voter of the sanctions imposed on Russia - even higher energy prices, even higher inflation, food inflation, shortages of aluminium products - including even cooking foil, shortages of some foodstuffs such as sunflower oil etc etc will at some stage dawn on them and that in turn will affect their voting intentions - but which way? Some forecasters are now saying inflation across the west could now hit 12-15% by years end as western economies re-adjust to the new realities and compete against each other for resources and products in short supply.  Should that end up being the case, then our Chancellor and his counter-parts across the free world will quickly find themsleves shredding their budget forecasts.

If a General Election were conducted on these FEBRUARY figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L308, C253, SNP57, LD8, PC4 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and Labour almost certainly unable to form a 'rainbow alliance' and having to rely on the SNP, which remains politically unthinkable due to the intransigence of SNP demands and the inescapable fact that it would be political suicide for either side - Red or Blue, to yield to the SNP in order to gain power and equally, political suicide for the SNP to back down from it's present position in order to power-share in a Westminster they are determined to leave..

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7

Polling figures for 2022 (50 polls)

Con 32.9%, Lab 39.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.4%, Oth 7.8%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 7.8%

Polling figures for February (23 polls)

Con 33.6%, Lab 39.7%, LDem 10.2%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 3.2%, Oth 7.7%

Lab lead over Con Feb: 6.1%

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SCOTLAND

There were no political or referendum opinion polls released during February.

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WALES

There were no political or referendum opinion polls released during February.

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There are Stormont elections in May, although they might be called earlier if Stormont cannot find some way to limp on until then.  One poll was released during the month giving Stormont voting intentions  (figure in brackets is the shift since last polling in January):-

DUP: 19.4% (+2.4%)
SF: 23.2% (-1.8%)

UUP: 14% (-)

SDLP: 11% (-1.1%)
APNI: 15.6% (+1.6%)
TUV: 6.4% (-5.6%)
GRN: 6.3% (+3.3%)
PBP: 2.3% (+1.3%)
Oth: 1.8% (-1.2%)

(2017 first preference %:-)

DUP: 28.1%

SF: 27.9%

UUP: 12.9%

SDLP: 11.9%

APNI: 9.1%
TUV: 2.6%

GRN: 2.3%

PBP: 1.8%

Oth: 3.6%

There was no IndyRef polling released during the month.

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast & London and vice-versa all around.

There were three polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):

SF: 33.0% (-0.5%)

FF: 19.7% (-1.8%)

FG: 21.0% (-1.5%)

GP: 4.7% (+1.7%)

LP: 3.7% (-0.3)

SD: 3.7% (+1.2)

S-PBP: 2.3% (-0.2) 

AÚ: 1.7% (+0.7)

Oth/Ind: 10,2% (+0.7%)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

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FRANCE  (Presdential elections 10 & 24 Apr, 2022)

There are now 38 declared candidates at this stage - not including the incumbent Macron, with the same five as last month clearly ahead of the herd, and only two of those five will reach second round run-off. 

So far, of the 38 declared candidates, only 11 have gained the necessary signatures to progess to the first round ballot.    French Presidential elections are a cumbersome closed-shop affair and to be listed on the first-round ballot paper, candidates need to secure 500 signatures (often referred to as 'parrainages' in French) from national or local elected officials from at least 30 different departments or overseas 'collectivities', with no more than a tenth of these signatories from any single department. The signatures are submitted to the Constitutional Council, which is the sole authority to designate participants.

During February there were 59 Polls averaging:

( Top 5 - Left-Centre-Right-Nationalist-Gaullist) 

(figures in brackets last month's comparison)

Melenchon: 10.6% (anti-EU)(+1.1%)

Macron: 24.7% (pro-EU)(+0.6%)

Pecresse: 14.7% (EU-sceptic)(-1.7%)

Le Pen: 16.7% (anti-EU)(-0.2%)

Zemmour: 14.6% (anti-EU)(+1.8%)

33 Others: 18.7% (-1.7%)

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