OPINION POLLING FOR JANUARY 2022

 

Across January there were 27 polls conducted at various times by all the major polling agencies.  

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month). 

Con 32.2% (-1.4%) 

Lab 40.1% (+1.8%)

LDem 10.6% (+0.6%)

Grn  5.5% (-0.6%)

Rfm 3.6% (-2.1%)

Oth 7.8% (-0.2%)

Ave Lab lead over Con: 7.85% (+3.05%)

Tory support swung between 27-35%, Labour's between 37-43% and the LDems between 8-13%, indicating a continuing highly volatile electorate reacting to immediate events as opposed to medium & long term direction.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% sixteen times during the 27 polls and on one occasion showed a 14% lead (Find Out Now, 13 Jan). Labour led in every poll with leads of between 3% - 14%.

The current 'PartyGate', 'Cost Of Living Crisis' and 'Boat People' continue to hit the Tories hard however the latter two are the ones hitting the actual core Tory vote the hardest which may explain why the Home Office no longer releases daily figures of dinghy arrivals.  Certainly, hardened Tory voters do not believe him personally when he says he can sort these crises out.   However Labour - currently riding high, are still not doing as well in the polls as they were during the last few months of  2020 and early 2021, nor as well as Miliband and Corbyn were during their mid-terms.    At the start of the month, the Tories were actually showing signs of recovery,  had a dreadful mid-month where Labour were wiping the floor with them, before finishing the month showing signs of recovery again.

As it stands,  if a General Election were conducted on these January figures and using the new boundaries,  it would result in a hung Parliament of L314, C241, SNP59, LD11, PC5 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and Labour requiring either the support of the SNP (highly unlikly as they cannot meet the SNP's demands and would certainly lose the election anyway if the electorate thought they might), or alternatively the support of the LDems in order to get a fragile majority of around 8-10 once the Speakers and Sinn Fein's seats are discounted from the 650.

As a point of interest,  one of the pollsters asked the 'Don't Knows (included in Oth), if they intended to vote and if they did who would they vote for.  The largest amount who expressed an opinion opted for Tory.

Comparison

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7

(Oth includes SNP, Plaid, UKIP, don't know etc etc etc)

ave lead Con over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for Jan (27 polls)

Con 32.2%, Lab 40.1%, LDem 10.6%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 3.6%, Oth 7.8%

Lab lead over Con Jan: 7.9%

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SCOTLAND

There were no political opinion polls released during this period but there was one IndyRef poll, the result of which was:-

Yes: 46.0% (-2%), No: 46% (+2.5%), DK: 8% (-0.5%)

(Y:50 N:50)

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WALES

There were no polls released during the month.

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There is a possibility that the Stormont elections will be brought forward from May,  if the parties are unable to form a new government following the resignation of the First Minister. 

What is clearly apparent is that the DUP have haemorrhaged support over the last 12 months or so to the more extreme working class unionist party TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) and this is almost certainly being caused by the the Protocol and the opposition to it among working class unionists in particular. (the unionist vote tends to be split along class lines - middle class unionists support UUP, working class unionists support DUP/TUV)

(figure in brackets is the shift since last polling in November)

DUP: 17% (-1%)
SF: 25% (+1%)

UUP: 14% (-)

SDLP: 11% (-1%)
APNI: 14% (-1%)
TUV: 12% (+1%)
GRN: 3% (+1%)
PBP: 1% (-1%)
Oth: 3% (+1%)

(2017 first preference %:-)

DUP: 28.1%

SF: 27.9%

UUP: 12.9%

SDLP: 11.9%

APNI: 9.1%
TUV: 2.6%

GRN: 2.3%

PBP: 1.8%

Oth: 3.6%

There was no IndyRef polling released during the month.

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect on Belfast & London and vice-versa

There were two polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):

SF: 33.5% (-1.0%)

FF: 21.5% (nc)

FG: 22.5% (+2.0%)

GP: 3% (-2.0%)

LP: 4.0% (-0.5)

SD: 2.5% (+0.5)

S-PBP: 2.5% (+1.0) 

AÚ: 1.0% (nc)

Oth: 9.5% (-0.5%)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

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FRANCE  (Presdential elections 10 & 24 Apr, 2022)

There are now 39 declared candidates at this stage, not including the incumbent Macron, with the same five as last month clearly ahead of the herd, and only two of those five will reach second round run-off. 

During January there were 63 Polls averaging:

( Top 5 - Left-Centre-Right-Nationalist-Gaullist) 

(figures in brackets last month's comparison)

Melenchon: 9.5% (anti-EU)(-0.3%)

Macron: 24.1% (pro-EU)(+0.1%)

Pecresse: 16.3% (EU-sceptic)(-0.7%)

Le Pen: 16.9% (anti-EU)(+1.0%)

Zemmour: 12.8% (anti-EU)(-0.6%)

34 Others: 20.4% (+0.6%)

Macron has stepped-up his 'I'm Mr Tough Guy' campaign, causing a major panic in Brussels with his latest demand that Freedom Of Movement is reduced significantly, at least until such time as the EU secures it's external border properly.   He has also been rebuked by the Commission for his latest stupidity at the channel ports where France is refusing to accept paperwork with digital signatures on goods entering from UK and insisting on 'wet' signatures, in clear and direct breach of the EU-UK deal.  He actually told the EU to mind their own business how France runs it's own border.   Immigration remains the single biggest issue so far in the election, with the cost of living in France (worse than UK) not far behind.  Of major outrage at the moment is the deliberate lack of integration by muslim arrivals and a documetary team now living under Police protection after receiving death threats from islamic extremists after a documentary - 'Restricted Zone' was shown on mainstream TV in which they showed the impact of islamism in just one town - Roubaix.  Toy shops selling faceless dolls and teddy bears to comply with stricty islamic teachings, restaurants and cafes having screened cubicles for women not accompanied by a male and a charitable educational institution given a €60,000 grant to promote hardline islamic teachings amongst other things.  Three directors of the charity are now facing prosecution, along with the Mayor of Roubaix. 

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And purely in passing.............

USA

President Biden remains the most unpopular President in US polling history for the third consecutive month.  His Deputy - Kamala Harris, is even more unpopular.