OPINION POLLING FOR MARCH 2022

                                

Across March there were 24 polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.

Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month). 

Con 35.0% (+1.4) 

Lab 38.7% (-1.0)

LDem 9.6% (-0.6)

Grn  5.8% (+0.1)

Rfm 3.6% (+0.4)

Oth 7.3% (-0.4)

Ave Lab lead over Con for March: 3.68% (-2.41)

Labour's lead of the latter parts of last year and earlier this year continued to drop as the month wore on.   

Tory support swung between 33-37%, Labour's between 35-42% and the LDems between 7-12%.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% eight times during the 24 polls and on two occasions showed a 7% lead (SavantaComRes, 04-06 Mar, and Survation 28-30 Mar.). Labour led in every poll except one - which was tied ( Kantar, 17-21 Mar, 36% each) with leads of between 1%-7%.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is obviously putting Boris in the spotlight front and centre and the public appear very supportive of the money and weapons he has given on our behalf so far and very supportive of the sanctions programme.   Quite what their opinion will be later on in the autumn as the inflation caused by the war and sanctions starts to pile in on top of what's already hitting their pocket from the 'covid unwind' will become apparent around Nov-Dec as that starts to hit. The first tranche of 'PartyGate' Fixed Penalty Notices have now been issued,  but the public appear for the most part to be totally disinterested in the affair anymore - bored rigid by it would be a more apt description, and any firm opinion either way appears to be split for the most part along party lines.  

There are local elections in parts of England & Wales due in early May and so far what little polling has been  carried out specifically for these shows 37%-33% in Labour's favour -which the Tories, as government of the day and in mid-term, will be more than satisfied with should the actual vote reflect that.  There are also local authority elections in Scotland, but there is no polling available for those and they have the added dynamic of the SNP who intend to finish Labour off in some areas.

If a General Election were conducted on these MARCH figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a hung Parliament of L292, C272, SNP55, LD7, PC4 G1, NI18, with neither side being able to form a majority government and neither side able to form a coalition government without the SNP, which as I have said before,  remains politically unthinkable due to the intransigence of SNP demands and the inescapable fact that it would be political suicide in the eyes of the voter for either side - Red or Blue, to yield to the SNP in order to gain power and equally politically suicidal for the SNP to back down from it's present position in order to power-share in a Westminster they are determined to leave and a United Kingdom they couldn't care less about.   There are also too many core differences now between the parties that are 'red line' and with no middle ground.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (74 polls)

Con 33.6%, Lab 39.5%, LDem 10.1%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 3.5%, Oth 7.6%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 5.8%

Polling figures for March (24 polls)

Con 35.0%, Lab 38.7%, LDem 9.6%, Grn 5.8%, Rfm 3.6%, Oth 7.3%

Lab lead over Con Feb: 3.7%

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SCOTLAND

There were two Holyrood polls released during March.  They averaged (const/list) as follows:-

SNP: 44/34%, SCon: 19/19%,  SLab: 22/20%, SLD: 8/8%, SGP: -/12%, Oth: 7/7

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLDem: 6.9/5.1%, SGrn: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

There were two IndyRef polls released, averaging:

Yes: 44.5%, No: 47.5%, DK: 8.0%

(Y:48 N:52)

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during March, (figure in brackets compared to last polling in December)

Lab: 41% (-), Con 26% (-), PC: 13% (-), LDem 7% (+4), Grn 4% (-2), Rfm 6% (-1), Oth 3% (-1)

(GE2019 - Lab 40.9%, Con 36.1%, PC 9.9%, LDem 6.0%, Grn 1.0%, BXP 5.4%, Oth 0.7%)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There are Stormont elections in May.  One poll was released during the month giving Stormont voting intentions (figure in brackets compared to last month):-

DUP: 19% (-0.4)
SF: 26% (+2.8)

UUP: 13% (-1.0)

SDLP: 11% (-)
APNI: 16% (+0.4)
TUV: 9% (+3.6)
GRN: 2% (-)
PBP: 2% (-0.3)
Oth: 1.8% (+0.2)

(2017 first preference %:-)

DUP: 28.1%

SF: 27.9%

UUP: 12.9%

SDLP: 11.9%

APNI: 9.1%
TUV: 2.6%

GRN: 2.3%

PBP: 1.8%

Oth: 3.6%

There was no IndyRef polling released during the month.

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all around.

There were three polls during the month that averaged as (comparison to last month in brackets):-

SF: 33.0% (-)

FF: 19.7% (-)

FG: 21.3% (+0.3)

GP: 4.3% (-0.4)

LP: 3.7% (-)

SD: 4.0% (+0.3)

S-PBP: 3.0% (+0.7) 

AÚ: 1.7% (-)

Oth/Ind: 9.3% (-0.9)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

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FRANCE  (Presdential elections 10 & 24 Apr, 2022)

The entry requirements to be included on the first round ballot paper saw only 14 candidates make the grade, of which only 12 have declared to stand and they will appear on the ballot.  Of those 12, five are way ahead of the remainder in polling.     Only the top two from the first round will progress to the second round and the winner of that will be the next President of France.

Almost certainly, the two final candidates will be Macron & Le Pen - who were also the two finalists in the last election in 2017.  In that one, Macron beat Le Pen by 66% to 34% on a healthy 75% turn-out.  This time however, it is going to be far far closer and going into the final week of polls they are near neck-and-neck for declared second round preference and it looks as though Macron is only going to hang on by the skin of his teeth and could even possibly lose depending on which way Melenchon's voters jump - anti-nationalist or anti-EU.  Unlike last time out where they were fairly ambivalent towards him, he is now extremely unpopular with the 'blue collar' working class as is the EU which he 'champions'.

During March there were 76 Polls averaging:

( Top 5 - Left-Centre-Right-Nationalist-Gaullist) 

(figures in brackets last month's comparison)

Melenchon: 13.1% (anti-EU)(+2.5)

Macron: 29.2% (pro-EU)(+4.7)

Pecresse: 10.9% (EU-sceptic)(-3.8)

Le Pen: 19.7% (anti-EU)(+3.0)

Zemmour: 11.3% (anti-EU)(-3.3)

7 Others: 15.8% (-2.9)

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