OPINION POLLING FOR MAY 2026

Internationally, May saw continued false dawns for a peace deal in the Middle East, resulting in oil prices remaining around the $ 100-a-barrel mark.  The war rages on in Ukraine.

At home, the Mandelson Affair is continuing to wreak havoc inside the Labour Party.   Andy Burnham finally got an MP to agree to resign in order to trigger a by-election, which, if he wins, he will use as a springboard to bring Starmer down. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor continues to cause problems for the Royal family and the government.

In the Elections,  Plaid won in Wales, the SNP continues to rule Scotland, and Reform won the English council elections by some margin.

All eyes are now on the crucial Makerfield by-election on 18 June.  Labour's Andy Burnham should win, but he will only have around the same percentage as in previous Labour victories, which is a problem for Labour, as it means their heir-apparent, on home turf, has no more appeal to voters than previous Labour leaders.  Reform should take second and will be satisfied with anything north of 33-35%, representing a significant increase in vote share. If replicated nationwide, it will hand them a handsome General Election majority and wipe out virtually the entire current Cabinet.  What will be interesting is how well Rupert Lowe's Restore party does. If their total and Reform's total are higher than Labour's, then questions will be asked about why they could not cobble together some sort of deal.

Throughout May, 25 Westminster polls were released. Reform continues to dominate and is starting to creep up the polls again as dinghy season gets underway. The polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Rfm: 27.0% (+1.0)
Lab:  19.0% (+0.7)

Con: 18.3% (-0.5)

Grn: 14.5% (-1.5) 
LDem: 12.2% (+0.3) 
Oth: 7.0% (-2.0)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

Reform led in every single poll bar one released in May, in which it was tied with the Tories (Lord Ashcroft, 21-26 May). In the remainder, Reform led by 1-12% (median 7.5). Reform has now led in every poll bar 5 since mid-April 2025, and even in those five, it was joint top. Reform ranged between 21-30% (median 27.5), Labour ranged between15-24% (median 19.0), the Tories between 17-21% (median 18.0), the Greens between 10-20% (median 15.0), and the LDems between 9-14% (median 12.0).

If a General Election were held on these MAY figures it would result in a Reform government with a majority of 26.  In reality, they will have a majority of around 31 due to vagaries such as Sinn Féin not taking their seats.  They would also be able to rely on support from Badenoch's Tories and Northern Ireland's Unionists, especially the DUP, for most of their plans.

Rfm: 338 (+21)

Con: 62 (-17)

Grn: 59 (-12) 
LDem: 64 (+1)
Lab:  54 (+6)

SNP: 45 (nc)

NI: 18
PC: 5 (nc)
Oth: 4 (+1)
Speaker: 1 
(Figures in brackets show movement from last month). (Sinn Féin, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats).

Comparisons

General Election 04 Jul 2024: 
UK TOTAL - Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
GB ONLY -  Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.7%, LDem 12.5%, Grn 6.9%, Oth 6.8%
UK lead Lab over Con: 10.0%
GB lead Lab over Con: 10.3%

Seats: Lab 412, Con 121, LDem 72, SNP 9, Rfm 5, Grn 4, PC 4, Ind 4, NI 18, Speaker 1.

General Election 04 Jul 2024 (1 poll)
Lab 33.7%, Con 24.4%, Rfm 14.3%, LDem 12.2%, Grn 6.8%, Oth 9.3%
Lab lead over Con: 10.0%

Polling figures for 2025  (272 polls)
Rfm 28.3%, Lab 22.3%, Con 19.7%, LDem 13.3%, Grn 10.1%, Oth 6.4%

Polling figures for 2026  (125 polls)
Rfm 27.4%, Lab 18.7%, Con 18.6%, Grn 15.0%, LDem 12.2%, Oth 8.0%

Polling figures for May 2026 (25 polls)
Rfm 27.0%, Con 18.3%, Lab 19.0%, Grn 14.5%, LDem 12.2%, Oth 7.0%

Rfm lead over Con May: 8.7% (+1.5)
Rfm lead over Lab Apr: 7.7% (+0.3)
Lab lead over Con Apr: 0.7% (+1.3)

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ENGLAND

English Councils And London Mayoralty Results

The big winners clearly were Reform and the Greens. Luftar Rahman's far-Left Aspire cemented its grip on Tower Hamlets.

Councils

London Borough Mayoralties

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SCOTLAND

Full-slate Scottish Parliamentary Elections took place on 7 May 2026 and the result is below.

Two Westminster polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling):-

SNP: 31.5% (-2.5)
Rfm: 17.5% (-2.0)
Lab: 17.5% (+0.5)

Grn: 9.0% (+1.0)
Con: 12.0% (+1.5)

LDem: 9.5% (+1.5)

Oth: 3.0% (nc)

The Scottish Parliament held a full-slate election on 07 May.  The results of which were (Figures in brackets show movement from the last election in 2021):-

SNP: 38.2/27.4% (-9.5/-12.9)

Lab: 19.2/16.1% (-2.4/-1.8)
Rfm: 15.8/16.8% (+15.8/+16.8)

Con: 11.8/11.9% (-10.1/-11.6)

LDem: 11.4/11.9% (+4.5/+6.8)

Grn: 2.3/14.1% (+1.0/+6.0)

Oth: 1.4/4.3% (+0.8/0.9)

(65 seats required for a majority, therefore, there is now an SNP/Green

Agreement because Scottish Greens support independence. Figures in

brackets show movement since the last Scottish Parliament elections in 2021)

The SNP maintains its hold despite all the trials and tribulations it has been going through over the ongoing embezzlement affair, etc.  Their dominance has been reduced slightly, but they formed a majority by entering a partnership with the Scottish Greens, who are also a pro-independence party, meaning Scotland continues to have a pro-independence majority.  The SNP were hoping for an outright majority, which they would then have used as a mandate for Indyref-2.  The main story, though, was largely unreported - that of the SNP's Stephen Flynn. 

Flynn was the Westminster MP for Aberdeen South and leader of the Westminster SNP group, and it must be said, one of the best performers in the Commons from any party.   In these Scottish elections, he stood for and won the Holyrood seat of Aberdeen, Deeside & North Kincardine and was also appointed Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Tourism & Transport in the new Scottish government. SNP rules forbid him from sitting as both an MP and an MSP, and he duly resigned his Westminster seat.  Flynn clearly has leadership ambitions, and again, SNP rules are that to be the leader of the SNP, you must also be an MSP.  Therefore, you can very shortly expect Flynn to challenge SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney and assume the role of both party leader and First Minister of Scotland, and very probably lead Scotland into IndyRef-2

There were three IndyRef polls released during the month:-

Yes: 47.7%, No: 44.7%, DK: 7.6%

(Yes: 51.6%, No: 48.4%)

(General Election 2024)

Lab: 35.3%

SNP: 30.0.0%

Con: 12.7%

LDem: 9.7%
Rfm: 7.0%
Grn: 3.8%

Oth: 1.6%).

(Holyrood Election 2026)

SNP: 38.2/27.4%

Lab: 19.2/16.1%
Rfm: 15.8/16.8%

Con: 11.8/11.9%

LDem: 11.4/11.9%

Grn: 2.3/14.1%

Oth: 1.4/4.3%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

Full-slate Welsh Parliamentary Elections took place on 7 May 2026 and the result is below.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month. (Figures show the last polling for reference):-

PC: 29.0%
Rfm: 24.0%
Grn: 14.0%
Lab: 12.0%

Con: 12.0%

LD:  5.0%

Oth: 4.0%

The Welsh Parliament held a full-slate election on 07 May.  The results of which were (Figures in brackets show movement from the last election in 2021):-

PC: 35.4% (+14.7)

Rfm: 29.3% (+28.2)

Lab: 11.1% (-25.1)

Con: 10.7 (-14.4)
Grn: 6.7% (+2.3)
LDem: 4.5% (+0.2)

(48 seats are required for a majority)
(This is a new format Welsh Senedd with more seats and a different system of 16 

multi-member constituencies of 6 seats each, based on a D'Hondt method of counting, 

so there are no comparable previous figures. 2021 seat movements are based on transposing 2021's voting patterns onto 2026's news system)

48 seats are required for a majority, and Plaid will operate a minority administration with informal support from Labour as and when required,  in a reversal of the usual Labour-Plaid arrangement. Wales was a Labour stronghold, and they were not just defeated here in their own backyard but utterly routed in this election, with even their First Minister, Eluned Morgan, failing to be elected.  The new First Minister of Wales is Plaid's Rhun ap Iorworth, a former presenter with BBC Wales, who lives just outside Holyhead/Caergybi on Anglesey/Ynys Mon and is a keen rugby player

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

Yes: 26.0%, No: 54.0%, DK: 20.0%

(Yes: 32.5%, No: 67.5%)

(General Election 2024)
Lab: 37.0%
Con: 18.2%
Rfm: 16.9%
PC: 14.8%%
LDem: 6.5%
Grn: 4.7%%
Oth: 6.6%

(Senedd Election 2026, First Preference Vote)
Plaid: 35.4%
Ref: 29.3%
Lab: 11.1%

Con: 10.7%

Grn: 6.7%

LDem: 4.5%

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westminster polls were released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 29.0%

DUP: 19.0% 

APNI: 13.0%
TUV: 11.0% 

UUP: 10.0%

SDLP:  10.0% 

Grn:2.0% 
PBP-S: 2.0% 

AÚ: 1.0%

Oth: 3.0%

(Unionist 44%, Nationalist 43%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

The only thing of note at Assembly level is that MLA for Upper Bann Doug Beattie has resigned from the UUP and now sits as an Independent Unionist. There were no Assembly polls released during the month. Figures show the last polling for reference:-

SF: 24.0%
DUP: 18.0%

APNI: 11.0%
UUP: 13.0%
SDLP: 11.0%
TUV: 11.0%
Grn: 5.0%
AÚ: 3.0%
PBP-S: 2.0%
Oth: 2.0%

(Unionist 42.9%, Nationalist 45.9%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election 2024)
SF: 27.0%
DUP: 22.1%
APNI: 15.0%

UUP: 12.2%
SDLP: 11.1%
TUV: 6.2%
Oth: 6.4%
(Unionist 40.5%, Nationalist 38.1%)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
PBP-S: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, PBP,-S IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic of Ireland because it is the only foreign country that shares a land border with the UK and also has a common heritage and language. Additionally, events and decisions in Dublin, London, or Belfast affect all three to varying degrees.

Illegal immigration and asylum continue to pose considerable problems for the Irish government.

Two opinion polls were released during the month. (Figures in brackets show movement from the last polling)

FF: 16.0% (-1.5)

FG: 17.0% (+0.5)

SF: 21.5% (-2.0)

SD:  9.5% (+1.0)

LP:  4.0% (nc)

AÚ:  7.0% (+1.0)

II:  8.0% (+1.5)

GP:  3.0% (-nc)

PBP-S: 3.0% (nc) 

Oth:  11.0% (-1.5)
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(General Election Nov 2024)

FF: 21.9%

FG: 20.8%
SF: 19.5%

SD: 4.8%

LP: 4.7%
AU: 3.9%

II: 3.6%
GP: 3.0%

PBP-S: 2.8%
Oth: 15.0%
(Oth consists of other parties, regional parties, don't know and will not vote)

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour, SD=Social Democrats, II=Independent Ireland, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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