OPINION POLLING FOR MARCH 2024

 

Across MARCH there were 37 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 24.5 (-0.6)
Lab  43.1% (-0.4) 
LDem 10.0% (+0.2) 
Grn 5.5% (-0.5) 

Rfm 11.6% (+1.5)

Oth 5.3% (-0.2)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 18-27% (median 22.5), Labour between 40-47% (median 43.5), Reform between 8-16% (median 12.0) and the LDems between 6-12% (median 9.0).  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 37 polls and on 1 occasion showed a 28% lead (People Polling, 07 Mar).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 14-28% (median 21.0).   This is now the second consecutive month  that Reform have out-polled the LDems, with the gap between the two growing and in one poll Reform were only 5% behind the Tories (YouGov, 26-27 Mar).

If a General Election were held on these March figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of:-  L453 (-6), C106 (-3), LD46 (+9), SNP20 (nc), PC4 (nc), G2 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 256.    (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 260.). You will note that the polls have only showed minor changes to last month,  but in our constituency-based first-past-the-post system, just minor changes result in quite large shifts in the number of seats a party gains or loses.  (*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%

Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (103 polls)

Con 25.2%, Lab 42.8%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 10.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 17.55%

Polling figures for March (37 polls)
Con 24.5%, Lab 43.1%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 11.6%, Oth 5.3%
Lab lead over Con March: 18.63% (+0.22)


President Putin won the elections in Russia by more than a landslide.   The war rumbles on in both Gaza & Ukraine.  Donald Trump's lead continues to grow in the polls as ordinary Americans believe he is being deliberately victimised by a corrupt, largely metropolitan middle class, establishment.

On the Home Front, the self-immolation of the Tories continues with media constanty awash with stories of plots to ditch Sunak straight after the May 'locals'.   Northern Ireland's First Minister - Michelle O'Neill (Sinn Fein) is facing accusations that she was connected to leading figures in the infamous 'Stakeknife' 'nutting squad'.   The question of residence regarding Labour's Angela Rayner contiinues with her changing her story for a third time and even becoming tearful and hostile when pressed in one interview.  Her spouse - former Labour MP (now de-selected) Sam Tarry is to take Labour to Court over allegations of vote-rigging by them to unseat him as the Labour MP.  sir Jeffrey Donaldson - head of the DUP,  quit amidst allegations of rape.   Labour abandoned it's 'better BREXIT deal' plans after the EU told them in no uncertain terms that the deal is not going to even be discussed let alone re-opened, and several member states - principally Spain, said the EU functions far smoother without the UK and it's constant obstructions now it has left and they are not wanted back.   And then there's the Rwanda Bill..........

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SCOTLAND

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 34.0% (-2.7)

SCon:  16.0% (+0.3)

SLab: 34.0% (+1.0)

SLD: 6.0% (-1.3)

Oth: 10.0% (+2.7)

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.0/28.0% (nc/+1.0)

SCon: 18.0/16.0% (nc/nc)

SLab: 31.0/29.0% (-2.0/nc)

SLD: 5.0/9.0% (-3.0/nc)

SGP: 3.0/9.0% (nc/nc)

Oth: 8.0/9.0% (+5.0/-1.0)

There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (nc), No: 46.0% (-1.0), DK: 11.0% (+1.0)

(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)

(General Election 2019)

SNP: 45.0%

SCon: 25.1%

SLab: 18.6%

SLDem: 9.5%

Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 49.0% (+4.0)
Con: 16.0% (-6.0)
PC: 10.0% (nc)
LDem: 5.0% (nc)
Rfm 15.0% (+2.0)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)

Oth 0.0% (nc)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

Lab 36.0/32.0% (-1.0/-2.5)
Con 21.0/16.0% (-1.5/-2.5)
Plaid 21.0/18.0% (+2.5/-1.0)
LDem 3.0/7.0% (-2.5/-2.0)
Grn: 3.0/9.0% (-2.0/+3.0)
Rfm 11.0/11.0% (+5.5/+5.5)
AWA  3.0/6.0% (+2.0/+0.5)  
UKIP -/0.0%  (nc/-1.0)

Oth 5.0/1.0% (nc/-5.0)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 30% (+3.0),  No: 58% (-3.0), DK: 12% (nc)

(Yes: 34.1%, No: 65.9%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.    Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0% (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)

(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

The Coalition govrnment continues to wobble, exacerbated by the resignation of Leo Varadkar after his personally disastrous Constituency Referenda results.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 26.3% (-2.0)

FF: 17.0 (-0.7)

FG: 20.3% (+1.0)

GP: 4.0% (+0.3)

LP: 3.7% (-0.3)

SD: 6.3% (+1.0)

PBP-S: 2.3% (nc) 

AÚ: 3.7% (+1.7)

Oth/Ind: 16.4% (-1.0)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. 

Chancellor Scholz (SPD) remains at loggerheads with the Farmers Union, with more strikes planned and - more crucially being as he and his party are left wing, is becoming embroiled in major policy rows inside his party as he seeks to find a way to reform and reduce Germany's 
burgeoning social welfare bill.

AfD - 18.1% (-0.7)

CDU/CSU - 30.3% (-0.1)
FW - 2.5% (-0.3)

FDP - 4.7% (+0.3)

Grune - 13.3% (-0.1)

SPD - 15.6% (+0.6)

Die Linke - 3.1% (nc)
BSW - 6.0% (-0.4)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist' similar to Galloway's Workers Party of GB.)

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