OPINION POLLING FOR OCTOBER 2023

 

Across OCTOBER there were 36 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 27.3% (+0.2)
Lab  44.7% (+0.5) 
LDem 10.9% (-0.3) 
Grn 5.4% (-0.3) 
Rfm 6.4% (+0.2)
Oth 5.4% (-0.2)
Ave Lab lead over Con for July:-  17.47% (+0.56)

The Tories swung between 24-30%, Labour between 42-49% and the LDems between 9-13%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 36 polls and on one occasion showed a 28% lead (PeoplePolling, 23 Oct).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 13-28%

If a General Election were held on these OCTOBER figures:-  and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of* L428 (+2), C157 (-3), SNP19 (-8) , LD26 (+2), PC3 (nc), G1 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1   with Labour having a majority of 202 (although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 205.) 

(*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (308 polls)
Con 27.2%, Lab 45.3%, LDem 10.2%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 6.0%, Oth 6.1%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.08%

Polling figures for October (36 polls)
Con 27.2%, Lab 44.7%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 6.4%, Oth 5.4%
Lab lead over Con October: 17.47%


October saw the annual party conferences - with neither side really saying very much as those were almost certainly the last party conferences before the next General Election.    Two by-Elections took place in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire.  Both taken by Labour but could have been held by the Tories if Reform had not stood.   The impact of Reform and the very low turn-outs  caused by the Tory vote 'staying home' made Labour's victories look significantly better than the under-lying reality.

The tragic terrorist attack by HAMAS in Israel on October 7th and the on-going hostage crisis understandably became and remains the main event dominating the news globally as does the understandable and predictable response by the Israelis - who intend this - the fifth war against HAMAS, to be the final one.   

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SCOTLAND

A month dominated by the Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-Election which Labour took from the SNP on a very poor turn-out of 37.2% and the First Minister's family being trapped in Gaza City.

There were five Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 33.2% (-3.3)
SCon:  19.8% (+4.3)
SLab: 33.8% (+2.8)
SLD: 6.6% (-0.9)

Oth: 6.6% (-2.9)

There were two Holyrood polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.6/27.8% (-4.4/-1.2)
SCon: 19.2/16.0% (+3.2/-+0.5)
SLab: 30.4/27.8% (+1.4/+0.3)
SLD: 8.0/8.6% (nc/-+0.1)
SGP: 3.8/11.4% (+0.8/-1.1)
Oth: 2.0/8.4% (-2.0/+1.4)

There were five IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 44.2% (+1.9),  No: 48.6% (+2.9), DK: 7.2% (-4.8)

(Yes: 47.6%, No: 52.4%)

(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 46.0% (-1.0)
Con: 26.0% (+5.5)
PC: 10.0% (-1.0)
LDem: 3.0% (-4.0)
Rfm 10.0% (+2.5)
Grn: 4.0% (-1.5)

Oth 1.0% (0.5)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 22% (-11),  No: 56% (+3.0), DK: 22% (+8.0)

(Yes: 28.2%, No: 71.8%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.  Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.

There were no Westmister polls released during the month.

There was one Assembly poll released during the month, first preference as shown. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 28.0% (+2.0)
APNI: 16.0% (+1.0)
UUP: 8.0% (-2.0)
SDLP: 6.0% (nc)
TUV: 4.0% (-1.0)
S-PBP: 1.0% (nc)
Oth: 6.0% (-nc)

(Unionist 42%, Nationalist 41%)

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There was one poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 32.0% (-1.2)

FF: 15.0% (-3.4)

FG: 21.0% (+1.2)

GP: 4.0% (+0.2)

LP: 5.0% (+1.2)

SD: 6.0% (+1.2)

PBP-S: 3.0% (+0.8) 

AÚ: 2.0% (nc)

Oth/Ind: 12.0% (-0.4)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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Food inflation rates, September 2023 (published in October).

Food inflation continues to fall across most of the european area at various speeds dependent on background factors such as levels of import, predominant type of diet, energy sources and method of calculation (it differs markedly between countries). Unless there is another 'black swan' event (such as an all out war in the middle east), CPI inflation now appears to be beaten and should drop rapidly to a more sustainable 2-3% level as base interest rates take effect (there is about a 6 month lag between the alteration of the rate and the effect it actually has on the ground by changing consumer activity.  People wrongly assume it's fairly rapid - but it isn't.  What is clear in retrospect is the Bank of England took to long to act and it's raises have been too cautious).

Turkey 68.9% (+6.2)

Hungary 13.2% (-4.7)
Serbia 14.4% (-2.5)
Iceland 12.3% (-0.1)
United Kingdom 12.1% (-1.5) ⬅️

Belgium 11.4% (-2.0)
Bulgaria 10.5% (-1.9)
Spain 10.5% (nc)
Croatia 10.4% (-0.5)
Romania 10.4% (-1.5)
Poland 10.3% (-2.4)
Malta 9.9% (-0.8)
Cyprus 9.7% (-0.3)
Slovakia 9.7% (-2.3)

Estonia 9.7% (-3.2.) 
France 9.6% (nc)

European Union (as a whole) 9.4% (-1.3)

Greece 9.4% (-1.2)
Netherlands 9.3% (-0.3)
European Union (euro area only) 9.1% (-1.0)
Luxembourg 8.9% (-nc)
Italy 8.5% (-1.2)
Austria 8.4% (-1.2)
Albania 8.3% (+1.4)
Lithuania 8.3% (-2.4)
Moldova 8.2% (-1.4)
Faroe Islands 8.0% (-3.3)
Ireland 7.8% (-0.4)

Germany 7.7% (-1.4)
Sweden 7.7% (-1.3)

Montenegro 7.6% (-2.9)

Norway 7.4% (-1.6)
Portugal 6.4% (-0.2)
Bosnia 6.2% (-1.8)

Czech Republic 6.0% (-1.9)

Ukraine 5.8% (-2.6)
Latvia 5.7% (-2.5)
Kosovo 5.5% (nc)

Denmark 5.0% (nc)
Russia 4.9% (+1.3) 

Finland 4.6% (-2.2)

Switzerland 3.8% (nc)

Belorus 2.4% (-1.0)

Macedonia -1.8% (-2.1)

(Source: Trading Economics Oct 2023)

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Germany

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU.  This is evidenced by the SPD's continued reluctance to send missiles to Ukraine and more importantly, their recent suggestions that they may re-impose hard borders on the east of their country to try and stem the flow of illegals immigrants entering - something which is starting to become a massive red-hot political issue not just in Germany, but across the entire EU as it starts to panic about the sheer scale of what is slowly moving northwards in Africa & the Middle East.  As we go to print, Germany - just like Denmark, is now in negotiations with Rwanda to start deporting illegal immigrants to there for processing.

AfD - 21.0% (-0.5)

CDU/CSU - 28.7% (+1.8)

FDP - 5.5% (-1.0)

Grune - 13.7% (-0.5)

SPD - 16.0% (-1.1)

Die Linke - 4.4% (-0.2)

(In UK terms, simply put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, and Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)