OPINION POLLING FOR JUNE 2023

 

Across JUNE there were 31 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 27.8% (-0.6) 

Lab  44.7% (+0.5) 
LDem 10.9  (+0.2) 
Grn 5.3% (+0.3) 
Rfm 5.7% (+0.4)
Oth 5.6% (-0.9)
Ave Lab lead over Con for June:-  16.90% (+1.44)

The Tories swung between 25-31%, Labour between 48-41% and the LDems between 8-13%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 31 polls and on one occasion showed a 25% lead (YouGov, 20-21 June) although this is almost certainly an 'outlier' as it is at massive variance compared to all the other polls conducted around that time.  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 11-25%
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If a General Election were held on these JUNE figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L434, C152, SNP25 , LD17, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 218.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (189 polls)

Con 27.4%, Lab 45.6%, LDem 9.7%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 6.4%

Lab lead over Con 2023: 17.74%

Polling figures for June ( 31 polls)

Con 27.8%, Lab 44.7%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 5.6%

Lab lead over Con June: 16.90%

Another tumultuous month which saw the conclusion of 'Partygate' which didn't do as much damage to the Tories as Labour would have hoped for nor the Tories probably expected.  Some individual polls gave Labour truly shocking leads however those were clearly 'outliers' and other polling done around the same time either side of them was more within expected - and believable parameters.  What it does show is that a significant chunk of the electorate (probably far higher than red or blue are comfortable with) are highly volatile and will flip-flop between one and the other just off the back of a 'red top' newspaper scoop as opposed to actual policies that will impact their lives.  What it also tends to suggest is that the Tories have 'bottomed' in support and Labour are at around 'peak'.

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SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 36.3% (-1.7)
SCon:  18.3% (+1.0)
SLab: 32.0% (+1.3)
SLD: 7.7% (-0.3)

Oth: 5.7% (-0.6)

There were three Holyrood polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 37.3/27.7% (-1.7/-3.0)
SCon: 16.7/17.7% (-1.3/-0.6)
SLab: 31.3/27.0% (+1.3/+0.3)
SLD: 8.3/9.7% (+0.3/+2.4)
SGP: 4.5/12.7% (+1.5/+4.3)
Oth: 1.9/5.2% (-0.1/+2.4)

There were five IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 44.8% (-0.9),  No: 46.2% (-1.8) DK: 9.0% (+2.7)

(Yes: 49.2%, No: 50.8%)

(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3% 

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 43.0% (-3.0)
Con: 22.0% (+1.0)
PC: 10.0% (-0.5)
LDem: 7.0% (-1.0)
Rfm 12.0% (+3.0)
Grn: 4.0% (nc)

Oth 1.0%.(-0.5)

There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

Lab 36.0/30.0% (-3.0/-3.0)
Con 22.0/22.0% (+1.5/+3.5)
Plaid 19.0/20.0% (+0.5/-1.0)
LDem 7.0/9.0% (nc/+0.5)
Grn: 3.0/6.0% (-1.0/+0.5)
Rfm 10.0/8.0% (+2.5/+0.5)
AWA  -/-% (-/-) - NOT POLLED
UKIP -/-% (-/-) - NOT POLLED

Oth 3.0/5.0% (-0.5/+4.5)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 30% (+4.0),  No: 57% (+1.0), DK:13% (+4.0)

(Yes: 34.5%, No: 65.5%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock,  with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the new Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.

There were no Westmister polls released during the month.

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 30.7% (-2.6)

FF: 18.7% (n/c)

FG: 19.7% (+0.7)

GP: 3.7% (-0.3)

LP: 3.7% (-0.3)

SD: 5.3% (+0.6)

PBP-S: 3.0% (+0.3) 

AÚ: 2.0% (+0.7)

Oth/Ind: 15.2% (+2.9)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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Food inflation rates, May 2023 (published in June).

Food inflation rates, May 2023 (published in June).  Food inflation is now starting to drop.  Although the UK appears to be lagging, it's reporting period is markedly different to most of the others and so is always playing 'catch-up' irrespective of whether the trend is up or down.  One thing that is becoming brutally apparent when you drill down into all the statistics is that the more energy per capita a country uses (and the higher the percentage of that energy is imported), and the more varied your country's diet is in comparison to what your country actually produces (resulting in a higher percentage of food imports) and the more it consists of processed foods (ready meals, fast-food, take-aways, snacks, confectionary, cakes, biscuits etc), the more that country is in turn struggling with food inflation.   And that is the core reason the UK is struggling with food inflation - we use to much imported energy per person (the persuit of net zero is making us poorer - and the less you earn, the more it is impacting you directly and indirectly), we eat far to varied a non-domestic diet consisting of far too many domestically 'out-of-season' foods or foods not grown or produced here and we eat far to much processed food etc in comparison to other countries (this is actually also reflected in our rates of heart disease, strokes, obesity and Type-2 diabetes - which are all astronomic compared to most other european countries).  We actually live in an age where for the first time in human existance, within the UK at least, the poor are fatter than the rich.  'Eat less,  Move More'.

Turkey 52.5% (-1.4)

Hungary 34.0% (-5.0)
Serbia 23.2% (+0.1)

Slovakia 21.7% (-3.7)

Estonia 20.4% (-3.0) 

Ukraine 20.1% (-2.1)
Poland 18.9% (-1.8)
Romania 18.7% (-1.1)
United Kingdom 18.3% (-0.7) ⬅️

Lithuania 18.2% (-3.7)

Latvia 17.9% (-2.3)
Belgium 15.1% (-1.5)
Croatia 15.1% (-0.7)
European Union (as a whole) 15.0% (-1.4)

Czech Republic 14.5% (-2.8)
Germany 14.5% (-2.5)
Bulgaria 14.4% (-1.5)
France 14.3% (-0.6)

Sweden 14.2% (-2.7)

Moldova 14.0% (-2.4)

Netherlands 14.8% (-1.6)

European Union (euro area only) 13.7% (-1.3)
Ireland 13.1% (nc)

Norway 12.7% (+2.7)

Austria 12.3% (-0.8)

Iceland 12.1% (-0.2)

Spain 12.0% (-0.9)

Italy 11.8% (-0.3)

Greece 11.6% (+0.2)

Bosnia 11.1% (-1.7)

Finland 11.1% (-2.6)

Malta 10.9% (-0.5)

Montenegro 10.7% (-0.9)

Denmark 10.6% (-2.5)

Albania 10.6% (+0.5)

Portugal 9.4% (-6.0)

Cyprus 8.4% (+1.7)

Switzerland 5.1% (-0.3)

Belorus 4.4% (-1.7)

Russia -1.0% (-1.0) (negative)

(Source: Trading Economics June 2023)

A majority of British voters (and wrongly) hold the Government responsible for inflation. 50% of voters blame the Government, whilst 32% hold the Bank of England responsible.  In actual fact it is The Bank of England's job to control inflation however that is a nigh-on impossible task when world events run amok,  OPEC+ adopts a policy of deliberately pushing oil prices higher, net zero forces us to import more energy rather than produce our own and the domestic population refuses to change it's consumer habits.

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Most Popular Modern-Times Labour Leader

YouGov polled nearly 2000 Labour Party members as to who was their most popular leader since Blair.  The results will have disappointed Starmer who finished second to the crusty old marxist Corbyn. Neither actually got a third of the vote so you could speculate that neither are particulalrly popular.

Jeremy Corbyn - 30%

Keir Starmer - 29%

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BREXIT

Yet again highly misrepresented in a series of blatantly anti-BREXIT polls commissioned by Remainer groupings.   In reality there has been very little drop in support for BREXIT - the annoyance is more at the way it is being done and deliberately under-mined and slowed-down by 'the blob', the the childish attotude of the EU.   It is best explaned on the outstanding non-partisan UK Polling Report website.

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Random Polling Snippets

A clear majority of Tory voters and a clear majority of Labour voters are now opposed to immigration ion the scale we have been witnessing.   44% of Remain voters are now opposed to immigration and roughly the same amount of Remainers are opposed to re-adopting unrestricted Freedom of Movement.

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Germany

A series of disturbing polls from Germany have indicated an explosion in support for Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).  Afd is a far-Right populist party comparable to UKIP and the BNP in UK terms.  It is deeply opposed to EU membership and opposed to the mass immigration that Germany has undergone in the past decade.  It is also heavily anti-Islamic.  It is heavily connected to PEGIDA (similar to our EDL), and other far-Right groupings such as Neue Rechte (New Right) and Identarien (Identity Movement) - which are traditiona\lsi white supremacy groupings who promote old-fashioned traditional German family values & ethics.   Averaged, AfD is now running in second place - and in some polls is actually polling in first.

It is thought that the dramatic growth in the far-Right AfD (it got less than 5% in the last Federal election in 2021) is being caused by rising hostility among the ordinary middle-class mainstream German public towards islamic immigrants/asylum seekers emanating from the middle east and north afriica and not only their failure to integrate but also by their point-blank refusal to (for example the immigrants traditional islamic hostility to female equality, gay rights, Israel etc and their demands that non-halal food is banned, more traditional islamic punishments introduced - such as hanging, flogging, amputation etc, the right to more than one wife and the acceptance of Sharia law and practices for the islamic community) , the cost of the Ukraine war (the overwhelming bulk of EU financial support comes from Germany, France & Poland),  the persuit of 'net zero' (which disproportionately affects people more the lower down the income scale they are), the constant petty interference of the EU and the domestic budgetary restrictions of being a euro-currency user.

CDU/CSU - 25.5%

AfD - 21.0%

SPD - 19.0%

Greens - 14.5%

FDP - 6.5%

Die Linke - 5.0%

(In simplistic UK terms,  CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour,  Greens are Greens, FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party and Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)

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