OPINION POLLING FOR OCTOBER 2022

  

Across OCTOBER there were 42 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month).

Con 23.5% (-6.5)
Lab 51.7% (+8.0)
LDem 9.7% (-0.6)
Grn 4.5% (-0.9) 
Rfm 3.6% (+0.6)
Oth 7.0% (-0.4)
Ave Lab lead over Con for October:- 28.14% (+14.53)


The Tories swung between 19-28%, Labour between 44-58% and the LDems between 7-13%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 42 polls and even breached 50% 36 times and on one occasion showed a 39% lead ( PeoplePolling, 20 Oct ).   Labour led in every poll with leads of between 21%-39%.

If a General Election were conducted on these OCTOBER figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L529, C30, SNP49, LD18, PC4, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 408.

A month of two Prime Ministers and even more chaos than last month, with Labour profiting by offering nothing and just letting the Tories get on with destroying themselves (as Napoleaon said, 'never intrrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake').    Breaking the month down into segments probably reveals more than looking at the month as a whole.  In the first third of the month, Labour were running at 45-33 over the Tories,  in the middle of the month that had increased to 55-20,  and in the final third the average had swung back towards blue with Labour leading 47-30.   Indications are that Rishi Sunak is eroding Labour's lead even further as November gets underway and as 'who is best PM' now has a clear lead over Starmer.

High inflation across the west will continue to impact for at least a year yet because the major causes are still present and don't look like going anywhere fast.   The war in Ukraine rumbles on and is now largely stationary as winter starts to unfold, with nothing major likely to happen on the ground now until next April at the earliest and fighting largely confined to artillery duels and patrol clashes in 'no-mans-land'.   Meanwhile China continues with it's supremely idiotic 'zero covid strategy' which is utterly trashing western supply lines.  Of more immediate (and seasonal) worry is the potential impact on poultry prices caused by an unexpectedly virulent strain of bird flu which has already resulted in tens of millions of chickens and turkeys across europe having to be destroyed - over 3 million so far in UK alone, (Christmas is coming and the goose isn't getting fat - it's being humanely destroyed and burnt).  Also worth keeping an eye on is Israel's new government - their most right wing and nationalistic ever and already increasing the liklihood of fresh conflict in the region, with Russia gently prodding Iran in the background, accompanied by the inevitabe rise in oil prices when there is an increase in instability in that region.

All eyes will now focus on the delayed Financial Statement and Labour's response to it as people will expect them to table alternatives along with costing and currently most people seem unaware that Labour is committed to not increasing public spending, but  rather finding 'efficiency savings' (ie cuts) within existing budgets to enable re-allocation of funds. Quite what the opinion will be of those members of the voting public that have somehow deluded themselves that Labour will pour money into the public sector once they realise that is actually bollocks, is a matter for debate.

Expect also Emergency Legislation of some sort to be hurriedly introduced this month to try and deal with the immigration crisis on the Channel.  It will achieve little because the political elite across all the 4 main parties are failing to understand what the public want - in fact they are actively doing the opposite.   The public do not want these people processed faster - they want them thrown out. They do not want safe routes estalishing - they want all routes terminating.  Nor do they want them in hotels and allowed to wander about during the day - they want them under lock & key confined to camps.  Already an ever-increasing number of Local Authorities are refusing to allow the Home Office to place them in their areas, adding further strain to those areas that accept them for placement.

Also of note will be the US mid-terms on the 8th Nov where it looks like the Democrats will lose control of both Houses, rendering Biden an impotent figurehead on the spot and a lame duck for the second half of his Presidency.  Whether people like it or not,  the USA drives the entire western economy and whatever they do impacts the entire western world.  As it stands, they will almost certainly continue to raise interest rates, probably in larger increments now, meaning that the entire west has to follow suit whether it wants to or not.

The month will also see the pointless annual COP conference - this one the 27th conference of utter  pointlessness.    Sunak got some flak for initially saying he wouldn't go,  but a quick check of the records shows Blair never went to a single one nor did Major.  Brown, Cameron, May & Johnson only attended one each  and Truss never got the chance.  At the end of the day,  what is the point of the UK sending it's PM to achieve little when we have an Environment Minister and a COP Minister who can achieve just as little for less wages especially when we have far bigger immediate problems at home.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (271 polls)

Con 31.8%, Lab 41.4%, LDem 10.8%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 3.3%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 9.51%

Polling figures for Oct (42 polls)

Con 23.5%, Lab 51.7%, LDem 9.7%, Grn 4.5%, Rfm 3.6%, Oth 7.0%

Lab lead over Con Oct: 28.14%

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SCOTLAND

There were two Westminster polls released during Oct (figure in brackets compared to last polling).

SNP: 44.5% (+0.5), SCon: 14.5% (-5.5), SLab: 30.25% (+7.25), SLD: 6.5% (-1.5), Oth: 4.25% (-0.75)

(GE 2019 - SNP: 45%, SCon: 25.1%, SLab: 18.6%, SLDem: 9.5%, Oth: 1.8%).

There were three Holyrood polls released during Oct. They averaged (const/list) as follows:-

SNP: 47.0/35.7% , SCon: 15.0/16.7%,  SLab: 26.3/25.3%, SLD: 7.3/7.7%, SGP: 3.0/11.3%, Oth: 3.0/3.3%

(HOLYROOD 2021 - SNP: 47.7/40.3%, SCon: 21.9/23.5%, SLab: 21.6/17.9%, SLD: 6.9/5.1%, SGP: 1.3/8.1%, Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

There were four IndyRef polls released during the month as follows (figure in brackets compared to last month):-

Yes: 45% (+3),  No: 47% (nc) DK: 8% (-3.0)

(Y:48.9%, N: 51.1%)

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month (figure in brackets compared to last month):-

Lab: 51% (+5), Con 24% (+1), PC: 13% (-2), LDem 6% (+1), Oth 6%.

(GE2019 

Lab 40.9%, Con 36.1%, PC 9.9%, LDem 6.0%, Grn 1.0%, BXP 5.4%, Oth 0.7%)

There were one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. It averaged (const/list) as follows:-

Lab 40/37%, Con 20/18%, Plaid 22/21%, LDem 6/5%, Grn: 3/5%, AWA -/7%, Ref 5/4%, UKIP -/2%, Other 4/1%

(Senedd 2021 - Lab 39.9/36.2%, Con 26.1/25.1%, Plaid 20.3/20.7%, LDem 4.9/4.3%, Grn: 1.6/3.6%, AWA 1.5/3.7%, Ref 1.5/1.1%, UKIP 0.8/1.6%, Propel 0.6/0.9%

(AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

The Northern Ireland Assembly is now suspended and a fresh election will almost certainly take place early next year to try (and almost definately fail) to break the dead-lock.  The current dead-lock concerns the DUP and it's steadfast opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol (which effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market despite it being an integral element of the UK). The DUP will not accept the Protocol and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped.  That position will not change while the DUP is the largest Unionist party and that is all there is to it. Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though.  For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again.

There were no Westmister polls released during Oct.

There were no Assembly polls released during Oct.

(GE2019:-
SF 22.8%, DUP 30.6%, NIAP 16.8%, UUP 11.7%, SDLP 14.9%, Oth 3.2%)

(Assembly 2022 :-
SF 29.0%,  DUP 21.3%, NIAP 13.5%, UUP 11.2%, SDLP 9.1%, TUV 7.6%, PBP 1.2%, Oth 7.1%)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There was no polling during the month.

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

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US MID-TERMS

The US Mid-Term elections are due on the 8th Nov, 2022.

During Oct there were 35 polls. Polling figures were (brackest compared to last month):-

REPUBLICAN - 47.5%  (+3.5)
DEMOCRAT - 45.1% (+0.3)

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ISRAEL

Israel held a General Election on 01 Nov.   Rising from the dead like Lazarus was Benjamin 'Bibi' Netanyahu (brother of the Special Forces Lt Col  Yonatan Netanyahu who led the Raid on Entebbe in 1976.  Benjamin also served in Special Forces).   Bibi Netanyahu looked finished in politics only a year ago and is stilll awaiting trial for breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud - although you can expect those charges to be thrown out now very very quickly.

Of the 120 seats in the Knesset,  Bibi's Likud are the largest with 30 seats,  with the Likud-led right wing/nationalist/zionist bloc and parties of that ilk holding 72 seats.  Israeli-Arabs hold 10 and the left, greens, centrists and independents hold 38.

The people of Israel elected the most hard line government that their country has ever had with Bibi Netanyahu being a man who shoots first and doesn't bother asking questions at all never mind later.  Me personally, I would be very surprised if the Israeli Air Force didn't start bombing Iran within the next 12 months, and expect more and larger Israeli Army incursions into the West Bank unless they stop firing rockets into Israel.

I have a lot of respect for Israel.  It is the only sane country in the middle east,  the only functioning middle eastern democracy, the only truly multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multi-sexual country in the region and they take no shit from anyone.  They are also believed to possess in the region of 80-400 nuclear warheads, deliverable by land, sea and air, as a result of a nuclear programme in partnership with the old South African apartheid regime from the 1960's through to it's end in the 90's.

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