OPINION POLLING FOR AUGUST 2022

 

Across AUGUST there were 21 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month).

Con 32.0% (+0.2) 
Lab  40.7% (-0.1)
LDem 11.9% (nc)
Grn 5.6% (-0.1)
Rfm 3.1% (-0.3)
Oth 6.7% (+0.3)
Ave Lab lead over Con for August:- 8.45% (-0.51)

Basically a month that ended with very little overall movement, despite what was going on politically.  The Tories swung between 25-35%, Labour between 37-44% and the LDems between 10-14%.  Labour managed to hit the magic 40% fourteen times during the 21 polls and on one occasion showed a 17% lead (PeoplePoll, 30 Aug - caution though, this is a new polling company and this is only their second poll and is wildly out of kilter in comparison to all the other pollsters, as was their first, and amost certainly an 'outlier'.  But it's there, so it has to be incuded.).   Labour led in every poll  with leads of between 3%-17%. 

The month was dominated nationally by three polical 'dramas' - the on-going Tory leadership contest - something that appears to have lasted a lifetime but is actually shorter than the Labour equivalent, the on-going RMT, TSSA & Unite strikes and the inflation rate - which is hitting the entire western world and which will worsen considerably yet.  Internationally, the Ukraine war, the on-going global energy crisis (not caused by but certainly made worse by, the war), and the highly damaging impact on western supply chains caused by China's ridiculous  and highlly damaging 'Zero Covid' policy were the main topics. It is fair to say that unless that war ends soon along with the Chinese policy, then the main impact on western economies will start to be felt from October onwards and anyone who thinks what is going now is bad, literally ain't seen nothing yet.

The Tory leadrship will end within days of this being published with the winner undoubtedly being Liz Truss, who will be 'crowned' party leader at lunchtime on Monday.   Tuesday morning at around 07.30 Johnson will make an address from the steps of No 10 where he will announce his intention to resign as PM.  He will then go to RAF Northolt, fly to Balmoral (in the official jet) where he will crave audience with the Queen and inform her that he can no longer command a government and will formerly resign.    Her Majesty will thank him for his service to her Realm and he will leave through the 'out door'.  Within seconds of that door closing, Truss (who will have made her own way up earlier) will be wheeled in, asked by the Queen can she command a majority in Parliament and form a government, to which Truss will say yes and yes - and the Queen will appoint her as Prime Minister. The whole process from Johnson walking in to Truss walking out taking literally minutes.  Truss will then return to London (in the official jet Johnson arrived in, with Johnson making his own way home) and will speak from the steps of No 10 at around 18.00.  The following day she will announce her Cabinet and within days will announce a 'mini-budget' of sorts.  Truss is not economically 're-distributive' - she is 'expansionist' - she doesn't believe the slices of the pie are wrong, she believes the pie itself is too small.  She has come a long way from head of the Oxford University LibDems, anti-nuclear and an ardent Remainer,  to leader of the Conservative Party,  Prime Minister and an ardent Brexiteer.  Growing-up I believe it is known as.

Anyone who thinks our system is unfair on voters should remember two basic facts that are true in every country - in a democracy the people only vote for their legislative assembly (Commons in our case), NOT the government,  and in all countries the Head of State, be that a Monarch, a President, or a Dictator, appoints the Prime Minister of their nation - not the people (or whatever the position is known as in their country. For example in the USA the Speaker - Nancy Pelosi, undertakes duties as First Minister ans has a massively different role than does our Speaker in UK).

If a General Election were conducted on these AUGUST figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L326, C228, SNP53, LD18, PC5, G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a marginal majority along the lines of Teresa May in 2017 and undoubtedly facing the same difficulties trying to pass legislation along with persistant rebellions among what is now a highly fractious Labour Party.

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7, Oth 4.7
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (193 polls)

Con 33.1%, Lab 39.8%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.3%, Oth 7.3%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 6.66%

Polling figures for Aug (21 polls)

Con 32.0%, Lab 40.7%, LDem 11.9%, Grn 5.6%, Rfm 3.1%, Oth 6.7%

Lab lead over Con Jun: 8.45%

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SCOTLAND

There was one Westminster poll released during Aug, (figure in brackets compared to last month).

SNP: 44.0% (-3.0), SCon: 20.0% (+1.0), SLab: 23% (nc), SLD: 8% (nc), Oth: 5% (+2.0)

There were no Holyrood polls released during Aug. 

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month as follows:-

Yes: 46% (-2.0),  No: 48% (+1.0) DK: 6% (+1.0)

(Y:48.9%, N: 51.1%)

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WALES

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly accountable representatives.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

No Westmister polling released during the month.

There was one Assembly poll released, as follows (figure in brackets is change since Jul ):-

SF 30% (-0.9), DUP 24% (+3.9), NIAP 16% (+0.7), UUP 11% (+1.4), SDLP 7% (-3.0), TUV 6% (+1.3), PBP 1% (-1.2), Oth 5% (-2.2)

(GE2019:-
SF 22.8%, DUP 30.6%, NIAP 16.8%, UUP 11.7%, SDLP 14.9%, Oth 3.2%)

(Assembly 2022 :-
SF 29.0%,  DUP 21.3%, NIAP 13.5%, UUP 11.2%, SDLP 9.1%, TUV 7.6%, PBP 1.2%, Oth 71.%)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

There was one poll during the month (comparison to last month in brackets):-

SF: 36.0% (n/c)

FF: 17.0% (-0.5)

FG: 22.0% (+2.0)

GP: 4.0% (+0.5)

LP: 3.0% (-1.0)

SD: 4.0% (+1.5)

S-PBP: 4.0% (+1.0) 

AÚ: 3.0% (+1.0)

Oth/Ind: 9.0% (-3.0)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth: 13.5%

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ITALY

Their General Election will take place later on this month on Sunday 25th Sept.    Since I wrote last month, several smaller parties have appeared, replacing other small parties of a similar political position.  Basically splitting, joining with others, name changing  - as is the 'norm' in Italian elections.  The far-Right Coalition remains on course to win the election with Giorgia Meloni ( of Fratelli d'Itallia - Brothers of Italy)  summoned to be Prime Minister as head of the far-Right Coalition, becoming the most right wing PM of Italy since Mussolini was appointed by Itlay's last Monarch - King Victor Emmanuel III, and also become Italy's first female PM.

As it stands,  the EU is going to be in an extremely difficult place by this result as is the ECB,  with a new Italian government that is not interested in what the EU has to say about anything and doesn't intend to repay it's bail-out from the 2008-10 crash.

Since last month there have been 40 polls (figure in brackets is change since Jul ). I have grouped the parties as per their political leanings.  

far-Right

LEGA - 13.5% (-0.2)
FI - 7.9% (-0.8)

FdI- 24.0% (+0.3)

Right
A-IV - 5.2% (+0.1)
ITALEXIT - 2.7% (+0.3)
IC - 1.2% (-0.4)
NM - 1.9% (+1.9)

Centre
M5S - 11.0% (+0.8)
E+ - 2.2% (+2.2)

Left
PD - 23.1% (+0.2)

AVS - 3.6% (nc)

Odds & Sods
OTH - 4.3% (-2.2)

Italy's Prime Minister-in-Waiting with some of her private paramilitary  'bodyguards',

usually seen at all of her rallies where she is present, even televised rallies

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