Across FEBRUARY there were 31 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-
Con 25.9% (-0.2)
Lab 47.3% (+0.2)
LDem 9.1% (+0.3)
Grn 5.1% (-0.1)
Rfm 6.0% (+0.1)
Oth 6.8% (-0.1)
Ave Lab lead over Con for October:- 21.39% (+0.32)
The Tories swung between 21-31%, Labour between 42-51% and the LDems between 7-11%. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 31 polls and breached 50% three times and on one occasion showed a 29% lead ( PeoplePolling, 08-09 Feb). Labour led in every poll with leads of between 14%-29%.
If a General Election were conducted on these FEBRUARY figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L483, C88, SNP42, LD15, PC2 G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 316.
The 'Polldrums' continue, with - at national level, only marginal movement detected, all well within the +/-2% margin of error. Of note is that due to the system we use - single member constituencies on a First-Past-The-Post basis, even a marginal shift of less than one half of 1% creates quite dramatic changes in the result and readers should compare last month's seat prediction to this month's as a stark example.
Rishi Sunak appears to have removed one headache - the Northern Ireland Potocol with it's suggested amendments 'The Windsor Framework'. The initial offer of Labour to support the deal in order to get it Parliamentary approval is probably not required as enough Tory MPs now support this to give it a comfortable majority. But that should be tempered with the fact that this is a treaty anyway and as such isn't actually any of Parliament's business. Parliament is just asked whether it approves or not and cannot actually stop government doing whatever it wants to treaties. The DUP remain an obstacle, however they are in no position to collapse the NI Assembly as on current predictions they and their allies the TUV will lose seats in the unionist bloc to their rivals the UUP. Even the 'big beast' Boris says that although he cannot support the Framework, he will not vote against it either. A note of caution however, is that much of this relies on goodwill by both sides - the UK & the EU and if one side or the other gets obstinate over something, the whole thing will collapse again. The only other real event of note is that Sturgeon has resigned in Scotland (she was actually in the position of jump or be pushed after a series of catastrophic political decisions and growing hostility towards her support of lockdown).
LDem 9.1% (+0.3)
Grn 5.1% (-0.1)
Rfm 6.0% (+0.1)
Oth 6.8% (-0.1)
Ave Lab lead over Con for October:- 21.39% (+0.32)
The Tories swung between 21-31%, Labour between 42-51% and the LDems between 7-11%. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 31 polls and breached 50% three times and on one occasion showed a 29% lead ( PeoplePolling, 08-09 Feb). Labour led in every poll with leads of between 14%-29%.
If a General Election were conducted on these FEBRUARY figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L483, C88, SNP42, LD15, PC2 G1, NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 316.
The 'Polldrums' continue, with - at national level, only marginal movement detected, all well within the +/-2% margin of error. Of note is that due to the system we use - single member constituencies on a First-Past-The-Post basis, even a marginal shift of less than one half of 1% creates quite dramatic changes in the result and readers should compare last month's seat prediction to this month's as a stark example.
Rishi Sunak appears to have removed one headache - the Northern Ireland Potocol with it's suggested amendments 'The Windsor Framework'. The initial offer of Labour to support the deal in order to get it Parliamentary approval is probably not required as enough Tory MPs now support this to give it a comfortable majority. But that should be tempered with the fact that this is a treaty anyway and as such isn't actually any of Parliament's business. Parliament is just asked whether it approves or not and cannot actually stop government doing whatever it wants to treaties. The DUP remain an obstacle, however they are in no position to collapse the NI Assembly as on current predictions they and their allies the TUV will lose seats in the unionist bloc to their rivals the UUP. Even the 'big beast' Boris says that although he cannot support the Framework, he will not vote against it either. A note of caution however, is that much of this relies on goodwill by both sides - the UK & the EU and if one side or the other gets obstinate over something, the whole thing will collapse again. The only other real event of note is that Sturgeon has resigned in Scotland (she was actually in the position of jump or be pushed after a series of catastrophic political decisions and growing hostility towards her support of lockdown).
Comparisons
General Election 12 Dec 2019:
UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%
GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%
GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%
Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)
Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%
Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%
Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)
Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%
Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%
Polling figures for 2023 (60 polls)
Con 26.0%, Lab 47.2%, LDem 9.0%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 6.0%, Oth 6.8%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 21.23%
Polling figures for Feb (31 polls)
A month dominated by the unexpected resignation of Nicola Sturgeon after a series of catastrophic political decisions including (but not exclusively) the on-going scandal of funding and contracts for the new ferries to the outlying islands, growing hostility towards the covid lockdown amongst Scottish voters, huge hostility to her 'flagship' Gender Recognition Bill, even amongst SNP members and SNP voters with it described as a 'perverts charter' in the Scottish press, mysterious loans to the SNP and 'missing' donations to the indyRef campaign fund all overseen and signed-off by the SNP's CEO Peter Murrell (who happens just by chance to be her husband) and several other things. There are three candidates for her replacement as Party Leader - Kate Forbes (a christian evangelist opposed to gay marriage, pre-marital sex and the entire scottish gender law), Humza Yousaf (who absented himself from voting for gay marriage following pressure from Scottish Islamic groups & mosques) and Ash Regan (also opposed to Sturgeon's gender recognition law). As it stands, Kate Forbes will romp it, but whoever wins, Sturgeon's legacy - the Gender Recognition Act (Scotland) is heading straight for the bin. Quite what the impact of such an overtly religious leader as Kate Forbes will be on a Home Nation nearly as divided on religion as Northern Ireland, remains to be seen.
There were five Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
SNP: 42.0/33.6% (-3.0/+0.6)
SCon: 17.2/17.2% (+0.7/+0.7)
Lab: 28.8/26.8% (+0.8/+1.3)
SLD: 7.8/7.6% (-0.2/-0.9)
SGP: 3.5/10.8% (+3.5/-1.2)
Oth: 0.7/4.0% (-1.8/+0.6)
(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).
(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).
(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%
Con 25.9%, Lab 47.3%, LDem 9.1%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 6.0%, Oth 6.8%
Lab lead over Con: 21.39%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCOTLAND
A month dominated by the unexpected resignation of Nicola Sturgeon after a series of catastrophic political decisions including (but not exclusively) the on-going scandal of funding and contracts for the new ferries to the outlying islands, growing hostility towards the covid lockdown amongst Scottish voters, huge hostility to her 'flagship' Gender Recognition Bill, even amongst SNP members and SNP voters with it described as a 'perverts charter' in the Scottish press, mysterious loans to the SNP and 'missing' donations to the indyRef campaign fund all overseen and signed-off by the SNP's CEO Peter Murrell (who happens just by chance to be her husband) and several other things. There are three candidates for her replacement as Party Leader - Kate Forbes (a christian evangelist opposed to gay marriage, pre-marital sex and the entire scottish gender law), Humza Yousaf (who absented himself from voting for gay marriage following pressure from Scottish Islamic groups & mosques) and Ash Regan (also opposed to Sturgeon's gender recognition law). As it stands, Kate Forbes will romp it, but whoever wins, Sturgeon's legacy - the Gender Recognition Act (Scotland) is heading straight for the bin. Quite what the impact of such an overtly religious leader as Kate Forbes will be on a Home Nation nearly as divided on religion as Northern Ireland, remains to be seen.
SNP: 40.6% (-5.1)
SCon: 17.4% (+2.1)
SLab: 31.0% (+3.0)
SLD: 6.0% (nc)
Oth: 5.0% (-1.0)
SCon: 17.4% (+2.1)
SLab: 31.0% (+3.0)
SLD: 6.0% (nc)
Oth: 5.0% (-1.0)
There were five Holyrood polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
SNP: 42.0/33.6% (-3.0/+0.6)
SCon: 17.2/17.2% (+0.7/+0.7)
Lab: 28.8/26.8% (+0.8/+1.3)
SLD: 7.8/7.6% (-0.2/-0.9)
SGP: 3.5/10.8% (+3.5/-1.2)
Oth: 0.7/4.0% (-1.8/+0.6)
There were seven IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
Yes: 41.4% (-6.1), No: 47.3% (+1.8) DK: 11.3% (+4.3)
(Yes: 47.7%, No: 52.3%)
(General Election 2019)
SNP: 45.0%
SCon: 25.1%
SLab: 18.6%
SLDem: 9.5%
Oth: 1.8%).
(Holyrood Election 2022)
SNP: 47.7/40.3%
SCon: 21.9/23.5%
SLab: 21.6/17.9%
SLD: 6.9/5.1%
SGP: 1.3/8.1%
Oth: 0.6/3.4%).
(IndyRef 2014)
Yes: 44.7%
No: 55.3%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WALES
There two Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
Lab: 51.0% (nc)
Con: 19.5% (+1.5)
PC: 13.0% (nc)
LDem: 4.5% (+0.5)
Rfm 8.5% (+0.5)
Grn: 3% (-1)
There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
There was one IndyRef poll released during the month as follows (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
Lab: 51.0% (nc)
Con: 19.5% (+1.5)
PC: 13.0% (nc)
LDem: 4.5% (+0.5)
Rfm 8.5% (+0.5)
Grn: 3% (-1)
Oth 0.5%.(-1.5)
There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
Lab 43/39% (-1.0/+1.0)
Con 18/18% (+1.0/+2.0)
Plaid 20/20% (nc/-3.0)
LDem 4/5% (-2.0/+1.0)
Grn: 4/5% (+1.0/nc)
Rfm 9/6% (+2.0/+2.0)
AWA -/6% (-/-2.0)
UKIP -/0% (-/-2.0)
Oth 7/1% (-2.0/-1.0)Con 18/18% (+1.0/+2.0)
Plaid 20/20% (nc/-3.0)
LDem 4/5% (-2.0/+1.0)
Grn: 4/5% (+1.0/nc)
Rfm 9/6% (+2.0/+2.0)
AWA -/6% (-/-2.0)
UKIP -/0% (-/-2.0)
There was one IndyRef poll released during the month as follows (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-
Yes: 18% (-4.0), No: 55% (nc), DK: 27% (+4.3)
(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)
There has been some movement over the Protocol by the EU - largely at the insistance of the government of the Republic in Dublin on the EU's side who are now also suffering as a result of it. This has resulted in an agreed amendment to it - 'The Windsor Framework', which looks like it will be supported by all the NI parties with the exception of the DUP & TUV, although they are both split over the issue and Sinn Fein really only support it to spite the DUP & TUV. The Framework will be implemented of that there is no doubt. Whether DUP/TUV accept that and allow the Assembly to sit is a different matter.
(Yes: 25%, No: 75%)
(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%
(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%
Lab: 39.9/36.2%
Con: 26.1/25.1%
Plaid: 20.3/20.7%
LDem: 4.9/4.3%
Grn: 1.6/3.6%
Ref: 1.5/1.1%
AWA*: 1.5/3.7%
UKIP: 0.8/1.6%
Propel: 0.6/0.9%
(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)
(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NORTHERN IRELAND
The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, is zombified and is only not dissolved because of Westminster and Whitehall's total failure to accept reality. The current dead-lock remains, with DUP's steadfast opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol (which effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market despite it being an integral element of the UK). The DUP will not accept the Protocol and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped and while the DUP is the largest Unionist party that is all there is to it. That position will not change no matter what anyone in London stupidly deludes themself into thinking to the contrary. Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though. For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again.
NORTHERN IRELAND
The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, is zombified and is only not dissolved because of Westminster and Whitehall's total failure to accept reality. The current dead-lock remains, with DUP's steadfast opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol (which effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market despite it being an integral element of the UK). The DUP will not accept the Protocol and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped and while the DUP is the largest Unionist party that is all there is to it. That position will not change no matter what anyone in London stupidly deludes themself into thinking to the contrary. Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though. For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again.
There has been some movement over the Protocol by the EU - largely at the insistance of the government of the Republic in Dublin on the EU's side who are now also suffering as a result of it. This has resulted in an agreed amendment to it - 'The Windsor Framework', which looks like it will be supported by all the NI parties with the exception of the DUP & TUV, although they are both split over the issue and Sinn Fein really only support it to spite the DUP & TUV. The Framework will be implemented of that there is no doubt. Whether DUP/TUV accept that and allow the Assembly to sit is a different matter.
There were no Westmister polls released during Feb.
There were no Assembly polls released during Feb.
(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%,
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%,
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.
There were four polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-SF: 32.0% (-1.0)
FF: 19.3% (+0.5)
FG: 22.0% (+0.3)
GP: 4.3% (nc)
LP: 4.3% (+0.6)
SD: 3.0% (-0.7)
S-PBP: 2.3% (-0.7)
AÚ: 3.0% (+1.0)
Oth/Ind: 9.8% (-0.1)
(General Election 2020)
SF: 24.5%
FF: 22.2%
FG: 20.9%
GP: 7.1%
LP: 4.4%
SD: 2.9%
S-PBP: 2.6%
AÚ: 1.9%
Oth/Ind: 13.5%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMING NEXT MONTH!!
The Lockdown Files - How a professional confidence trickster sold a totally unnecessary lockdown to 66 million island residents, ignoring and overruling even Whitty and Vallance , somehow managing to get the pair of them to publicly go along with something they fundementally disageed with and destroying an entire economy in the process with just a stroke of a pen and a dodgey graph, conned a Chancellor in to bunging in £440bn AND got nearly all 66 million residents (including me) to think it was a bloody good idea.
The Lockdown Files - How a professional confidence trickster sold a totally unnecessary lockdown to 66 million island residents, ignoring and overruling even Whitty and Vallance , somehow managing to get the pair of them to publicly go along with something they fundementally disageed with and destroying an entire economy in the process with just a stroke of a pen and a dodgey graph, conned a Chancellor in to bunging in £440bn AND got nearly all 66 million residents (including me) to think it was a bloody good idea.
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